Forecasting the Future for Profit

© Copyright 2014 Milner Strategic Marketing Ltd

Forecasting the Future for Profit

Jonathan Davenport

Milner Strategic Marketing

18th June 2014


Milner Strategic Marketing Ltd.

• Clients want help with market

analysis, strategy and marketing

programmes

• Extensive experience of

forecasting markets with high

levels of accuracy

• I have built 36 market models

over the last 6 years with forecast

models containing ~15m cells


Blockbuster faced an innovator’s dilemma. It made a

mistake and a market forecast might have saved it!


Consumer behaviour can be predicted (sort of)


Scenario planning allows possible futures to be

hypothesised based on different market drivers


Total market size is forecast for each country

The forecast is derived based

on:

– Historic film viewing data

– Seasonality

– Diffusion of Innovation

– Country demographics

– Technological developments

– Macro environmental drivers

2008 2018F

ilm C

on

su

mp

tion (

m)

Forecast


The full model contains a variety of interlinked

forecast elements that are specific to your market

Price Point Share

2008 2018

£0.99 - $1.99

Ma

rket S

ize (

Price

Po

int)

$2.00 - $2.99

$3.00- $3.99 etc

2008 2018

DVD Rental

Streaming

DVD Purchase

Cinema

Ma

rket S

ize (

$3

.00

-$

3.9

9, M

ix)

Media mix by Price

Point

2008 2018

Netflix

Amazon

Blockbuster

Ma

rket S

ize (

$3

.00

-$

3.9

9, M

ix,

Pro

vid

er)

Provider by Media

mix by Price Point


The countries are aggregated to provide summary

information. Checks are performed to ensure accuracy

Global

US LATAM Europe Australia

Country 1 Country 2 Country 3 Rest of ...

External Data

Sources

Model Assumptions

Exte

rna

l D

ata

Sourc

e C

heck

Se

nse

Ch

eck

e.g. CIA, The Economist, FT, World Bank, Census, WHO, etc

Asia China

Forecasting

Accuracy Check


The model provides a detailed understanding of future

consumer and competitive behaviour


Forecasting the future for profit

A single picture of market behaviour will

help you invest in the right markets

and target the right segments at the

right time

This will result in:

- increased sales volumes

- reduced costs

- time efficiencies

- and better company-wide strategic

alignment

Presentations & Public Speaking

Forecasting the Future for Profit