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Global Perspective for Oil and Gas in Energy
Policies EIF 2015
4-6 November 2015
Dr. Zeynep Elif Yıldızel VP, JADE
• What is energy? • What is electricity • Can electricity be stored? • Is electricity material or a product? • How can electricity be produced?
Raw Material
Production Facility ENERGY
ENERGY ELECTRICITY
Energy Politics should be designed to balance the limited resources vs growing populations
energy demand
Limited Resources Growing
Population
Key Global Trends to 2035
Source: BP Statistical Review, 2015
•By 2035 world's population is expected to be 8.7 billion where extra 1.6 billion people will need energy
•Primary energy consumption will increase 1.4%/ year
•Coal will be slowest growing fuel from 2013-2035 by 0.8%/year. This is due to environmental regulations and low gas prices in key markets
•Renewables (6.3%/y), nuclear (1.8%/y) and hydroelectric (1.7%/y) grows faster than total energy
•Fossil fuels will still be sharing 81% in 2035. (86% in 2013)
Oil And Gas Production Needs to be Developed • Global oil production (oil,unconventional,liquids and others) is expected to reach to ~110 million bopd in
2035 (2014: 92 million bbl/d oil)
• Industry needs to continue to develop new frontiers
• Most of the crude oil production expected from new fields; “yet to be developed or found”
• The industry needs 1000 billion $ of investment for this supply to be in the market
110
Global Investment in Fossil Fuel Supply
WEIO2014
Primary Energy Consumption of World
• Fossil Fuels are the major inputs for the energy production • Worlds energy consumption is the highest at Asia Pacific due to
population density • North America and Europe are the second biggest regions in terms of
energy consumption • Middle East and South and Central America consumes only 5% of the
worlds energy • Africa can only consume 3% of the worlds energy • Gas is the dominant primary energy resource for Europe and Middle
East, Oil is the dominant primary energy resource for America and coal is the dominant energy resource for Asia Pacific; where all of them are fossil fuels
• So energy raw materials flow direction is Asia Pacific, North America and Europe
Consumption by Region and Fuel Type (%)
Source: BP Statistical Review, 2015
Consumption by Fuel Type Mtoe
3882
316 879
574
3066
4211
Primary Energy Consumption
• China is the largest energy consumer country on world, which is due to the population; china spends 1.9 ton of the fossil fuels/ capita on worlds total
• US comes after China; in US a capita spends the 6.1 tons of the fossil fuels of worlds total
• Although the advanced economies consumes approximately 2% each of the total worlds primary energy; one person in each country consumes approximately 2 tons of the worlds total fossil fuels except Germany consumes 3 tons per capita
• Russia consumes 5% of the worlds total energy and her consumption of the fossil fuels per person 4.1 ton of the worlds total
• Turkey also retain a small amount of worlds total energy consumption with 1% , however the consumption of the worlds total fossil fuels per person is 1.5 ton
BP,2015
BP,2015
• The proven reserves of the world is 1.700 billion bbls of oil and 187 Tcm of gas by end of 2014 • The 47.% of oil reserves and 42.7% of gas reserves are located in Middle East • The 31% of the gas reserves are located in Europe and Eurosia where this number is contributed mainly
by Russian reserves • The 10% of this total oil and gas reserves belong to the Majors (BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, Total,
ConocoPhilips and Eni) • The majority of this reserves belong to NOC with 71% • Middle and small companies holds a total of the 19% of these reserves
Reserves Retained in NOCs
2P reserves BP,2015
OIL
BP,2015
GAS
Major Countries and Companies as Resources
• BP is listed in the top 10 reserves companies in both oil and gas, although Britain is not listed in the top countries of either oil or gas reserve holder
• Shell is also listed in the top 10 companies both oil and gas reserves, however Netherlands is not listed in the top 10 country reserve holders
Top 10 Integrated Oil Companies
• Largest oil companies are the integrated oil companies • Integrated oil companies hold the majority of the reserves that
do not belong to NOCs • 9 out of 10 are the integrated oil companies
Proved Oil Reserves
Proved Gas Reserves
Fossil Fuels in the Worlds and Turkeys Energy Demand
BP,2015 million toe
BP,2015 million toe
• Today fossil fuels meets the 86% of the energy demand of the World and 91% energy demand of Turkey
• In the next 20 years, still the fossil fuels will meet the 80% of the energy demand of World
• So the struggle for fossil fuels will be the major concern of the nations in the coming decades
Türkiye ~ 724.000 varil/gün (2014) (BP, 2015) • Energy import (2014): 55 billionr $
• Oil: 27 billion $ • NG: 23 billion $ • Coal4 billion $
• Turkey is consuming %0.8 of World total energy consumption. • External dependence on oil: % 87 • External dependence on NG: % 97 • Russia dependence on NGG % 57
US~ 19.035.000 varil / gün (2014) (BP, 2015) • US is consuming %18 Worlds total energy consumption • Oil consumption I s %36 in total primary energy consumption. • US is consuming %20 Worlds oil consumption
World~ 92.086.000 varil / gün (2014) (BP, 2015)
Supply Mix of Turkey in Oil and Natural Gas
• Turkeys own production is only 13% for oil and approximately 3% for natural gas.
• Turkey is dependent 63% to Middle east countries ion oil and 57% to Russia on natural gas
• Turkey has to secure and own the reserves of oil and gas internationally and need to force national and private sector to secure the resources outside the country in E&P business
• Turkey has to put forward some incentives for the National and private sector who are able to operate internationally in Upstream, Midstream and Downstream
• Turkey has to be a “gas hub” in order to secure the natural gas consumption and also secure the gas supply to Europe
• Turkey has to bring live the natural resources and energy stock exchange market
2014 2014
Supply Mix in Eelectricity Generation
• The majority of electricity is produced from natural gas in Turkey • The second important item for electricity generation is hydroelectricity generator • Btu this is not the only issue; we need oil and gas for to secure
– Transportation – Military usage – Refined chemical products – Domestic heating – Cosmetics – Medical usage
Main Aspects of Energy Business Chain
UPSTREAM MIDSTREAM DOWNSTREAM POWER GENERATION
Exploration Production
Pipeline Trucking Shipping LNG
terminals
Refining LNG Gas Hub Retail sales
Industry Domestic
We need to secure strategic reserves outside country by our national and private companies
We need to have more LNG terminals and underground gas storage facilities for our supply security
We need to be gas hub as our country is at the cross roads of supply and demand
We have enough power generation today but we have to secure supply for the future needs
Conclusions • Fossil fuels meets the 86% of the energy demand of world and will be not under 80%
for the next decades • For about more than a 100 years time, energy projects, specially the exploration and
production, will be the most profitable business on the World • Within the next 20 years, «integrated energy companies», which are exploring,
producing , transporting and refining their own energy raw material and converting them to energy in the end, will survive in the energy domain. Those companies will be structuring the next decade on the World.
• Today in Global Fortune 500 list, 8 out of first 20 are oil companies. Also there are 40 IOC’s within the first 500 largest companies of the World.
• Although we do not have enough oil and gas resources in-house, we should secure the demand of our Country from abroad
• So we have to encourage our private and national oil companies to secure reserves via exploration and production internationally
• We have to bring incentives to the companies not only exploring domestically but also doing exploration internationally
• We have to encourage our companies for to be a integrated oil companies so that fluctuation in oil prices do not effect
