HOUSING: AN URBAN CRISIS

SOWETO

NAIROBI

LAGOS

The GLOBAL Challenge …

Source: McKinsey Institute

the challenge today …

The challenge today:

The GLOBAL Challenge …

Source: McKinsey Institute

the challenge today …

The challenge today:

The GLOBAL Challenge …

Source: McKinsey Institute

the challenge today …

The challenge today:

and projected to 2025 …

Affordability gap

Source: McKinsey Institute

The LOCAL Western Cape Challenge

2nd most urbanised province in SA

City of Cape Town

Cape Winelands

Eden District

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

64%

14%

10%

56%

16%

13% % of Registered Hous-ing Demand

% of WC Population

Western Cape context

Urban population 5,5 million(nearly 90%)

Urban population 5,5 million(nearly 90%)

The LOCAL Western Cape Challenge

2nd most urbanised province in SA

City of Cape Town

Cape Winelands

Eden District

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

64%

14%

10%

56%

16%

13% % of Registered Hous-ing Demand

% of WC Population

Western Cape context

7,8m City Dwellers by 2030

11m City Dwellers by 2050

The LOCAL Western Cape Challenge

2nd most urbanised province in SA

City of Cape Town

Cape Winelands

Eden District

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

64%

14%

10%

56%

16%

13% % of Registered Hous-ing Demand

% of WC Population

Western Cape context

7,8m City Dwellers by 2030

Urban population 5,5 million(nearly 90%)

The LOCAL Western Cape ChallengeIssues

• Land• Finance• Delivery Models

The LOCAL Western Cape ChallengeLand – State Owned

The LOCAL Western Cape ChallengeLand – Marginal

Housing Demand vs. Supply

Source: WCG Dept. Human Settlements

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/150

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Housing Demand from Western Cape Government

Units & Sites Deliv-ered by Western Cape Government

No

of U

nits

Current est. 490,000 unit

backlog

Finance

Affordability

No income

R1 - R400

R401 - R800

R801 - R1 600

R1 601 - R3 200

R3 201 - R6 400

R6 401 - R12 800

R12 801 - R25 600

R25 601 - R51 200

R51 201 - R102 400

R102 401 - R204 800

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

13.28%

2.57%

3.88%

11.81%

17.62%

15.71%

12.81%

10.85%

7.45%

2.85%

0.75%

% of Population (Western Cape)

Mon

thly

Hou

seho

ld In

com

e

Source: StatsSA

Affordability

No income

R1 - R400

R401 - R800

R801 - R1 600

R1 601 - R3 200

R3 201 - R6 400

R6 401 - R12 800

R12 801 - R25 600

R25 601 - R51 200

R51 201 - R102 400

R102 401 - R204 800

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

13.28%

2.57%

3.88%

11.81%

17.62%

15.71%

12.81%

10.85%

7.45%

2.85%

0.75%

% of Population (Western Cape)

Mon

thly

Hou

seho

ld In

com

e

21.90%Using traditional affordability calculators an income of R12k per month = bond of R414k. Avg western cape price 2014 R1.27m

Source: StatsSA Ooba affordability calculator

Affordability

No income

R1 - R400

R401 - R800

R801 - R1 600

R1 601 - R3 200

R3 201 - R6 400

R6 401 - R12 800

R12 801 - R25 600

R25 601 - R51 200

R51 201 - R102 400

R102 401 - R204 800

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

13.28%

2.57%

3.88%

11.81%

17.62%

15.71%

12.81%

10.85%

7.45%

2.85%

0.75%

% of Population (Western Cape)

Mon

thly

Hou

seho

ld In

com

eOnly 35% of the western cape can afford a rental above R1,900 per monthR6-8k to rent a 1 bed in CBD R3.5k-R6.5k to rent 1 bed outside CBD (property24)

Using traditional affordability calculators an income of R12k per month = bond of R414k. Avg western cape price 2014 R1.27m

35%

Source: StatsSAFNB House Price Index

Ooba affordability calculator

African utopias – ECO ATLANTIC, NIGERIA

DELIVERY MODELS: URBAN UTOPIAS?

African utopias – HOPE CITY, GHANADELIVERY MODELS: URBAN UTOPIAS?

African utopias – KONZA CITY, KENYACRISIS RESPONSE: URBAN UTOPIAS?

African utopias – ARG WESCAPE DEVELOPMENT

DELIVERY MODELS: URBAN UTOPIAS?

DELIVERY MODELS: URBAN REALITY!

DELIVERY MODELS: URBAN REALITY!

REFRAME

DEFINITION

“There exists a specific aspect of the housing issue that is intimately bound up with the problem of the city, its way of life, its physical form and its image – that is with its structure.”

Rossi, A. 1982. The Architecture of the City

URBAN HOUSING | PUBLIC REALM

REDEFINING HOUSING:

• is the fundamental building block of cities• plays a dual role – facilitating private life, shaping public life• a\ is through shelter & privacy• b\ is through shaping public space• Structure of public space is a function of / and shapes the

structure of our communities

URBAN HOUSING | PUBLIC REALM

MEASURING QUALITY:1. density & connectivity (urban efficiency)2. relationship with public realm (spatial quality)3. liveability (social quality)4. environmental impact (urban resilience)

URBAN HOUSING | PUBLIC REALM

MEASURING QUALITY:1. density & connectivity (urban efficiency)2. relationship with public realm (spatial quality)3. liveability (social quality)4. environmental impact (urban resilience)

WCG’s Better Living Model?

CRISIS? OR OPPORTUNITY?

CRISIS? OR OPPORTUNITY?

HOW DO WE CREATE AGENCY?

• Policy• Funding• Materials• Typologies• Urban structure, services and system• Procurement: competition vs collaboration