Opinion polls in Nagorno-Karabakh: Comparative results from 2015 and 2016

1

Copyright © 2016, IPSC LLC. All rights reserved.

Opinion polls in Nagorno-Karabakh: Comparative results from 2015 and 2016

Key findings and summary of the results

IPSC, Armenia

17 November 2016

2


1. Methodology

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These opinion polls are commissioned by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR) and are conducted and analyzed by IPSC – Institute for Political and Sociological Consulting, a local research firm from Armenia. European Friends of Armenia (EuFoA ) is the international information and dissemination partner of this project. The fieldwork of the first poll was conducted in March 2015The fieldwork of the second poll was conducted in Jul 2016.

Methodology First poll (March 2015) Second poll (July 2016)

Sample 1,080 1,081

Confidence level α=95% α=95%

Margin of error Δ=3.0% Δ=3.44%

Sincerity level 86% 91%

Quality Control 44.1% 49.0%

4


Methodology of the research

37.5

15.4

47.2

Stepanakert Towns Villages

Location distribution (%)

The following locations were chosen:

□ All regional centers (7)

□ Large and small villages (43)

39 large, medium and small streets were chosen in Stepanakert

AS a rule the respondents were selected among the household members who were willing to answer to the questions, but age, gender and education quotas have been kept according to the available statistical data.Only one person per family participated in the polls.

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2. Socio-demographic Data

6


Gender, age and education of the respondents

46.953.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Male Female

Gender (%)

39.7

28.032.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

Secondary education College education University

Education (%)

25.9

30.8

24.1

19.1

0

10

20

30

18-30y.o. 31-45y.o. 46-60y.o. 61y.o. andolder

Age (%)

7


Family size of the respondents

2.4

44.9 44.7

7

0.93.1

46.1

42.9

6.4

1.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1 2-4 5-7 8-10 11-15

Family Size (%)

March -15

July -16

N=1,080

8


4.8

42.8

37.4

12.0

3.1

7.1

42.6

36.7

11.9

1.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Below 1000 EUR 100 - 300 EUR 300 - 500 EUR 500 - 1,000 EUR 1,000 EUR and more

March -15

July - 16

Income level of the respondents

Monthly income level of the households (%)

N=1,052

9


Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the family

22.6

52.3

25.1

16.6

64.5

19.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

changed for the better remained the same changed to the worse

Would you, please, tell us how socio-economic conditions of your family have changed over the past year? (%)

March - 15

July - 16

10


Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the family (by location)(July, 2016)

12.6

66.2

21.217.5

65.7

16.919.4

62.7

17.816.6

64.5

19.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

changed for the better remained the same changed to the worse

Would you, please, tell us how the socio-economic conditions of your family have changed over the past year? (%)

Stepanakert

Towns

Villages

NKR

11


Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the family(main causes for improvement/worsening)(July, 2016)

63.4

12.82.43.7

3.0

1.83.0

9.8

Reasons of improvement (%)

Employment

Increase insalary/pension

Assistance provided bythegovernment/relativesSufficient financialresources

Improvement in thecountry's economicconditionsChildbirth

Abundant harvest/cattle

Other

40.4

9.1

8.1

7.6

6.1

6.1

5.63.5

2.5

1.51.5

8.1

Reasons of worsening (%)

Unemployment

Loss of a relative/illness

Insufficient financialresources

Low salary

Inflation

Deterioration of thecountry's economicconditionsThreat of war

Inability to covercredits/fines/debts

What are the main reasons of improvement/deterioration of socio-economic conditions of your family?

12


3. Socio-Political Activeness, Level of Awareness and Existing Issues

13


Socio-political activeness of the respondents

23.9

61.6

8.3

6.1

25.4

24.7

61.2

9.4

4.7

20.5

0 20 40 60

Mostly interested

Somewhat interested

Somewhat uninterested

Absolutely uninterested

Refusal rate of the poll

Are you interested in the socio-political developments of your country? (%)

March 2015 July 2016

14


Most significant developments in the past three months(July, 2016)

4.9

81.1

5.5

2.8

5.7

Categorization of the mostsignificant developments grouped by socio-political principles (%)

Foreign Policy

Security ("Four day war" inApril)

Socio-Economic

National Issues

Domestic Politics

15


37.4

0.9

2.0

3.0

3.8

5.0

7.4

19.3

21.4

26.2

2.0

2.2

5.6

11.0

10.2

2.0

24.6

21.4

None

Educational problems

Housing bad conditions

Low pension/subsidy

Poverty

Low salary

Healthcare issues

Unemployment rate

Housing problems

Would you, please, tell us what are the major issues faced by your family?

(%, 2 responses)

March-15

July-16

Major issues faced by the family(March, 2015 and July, 2016)

16


Major issues faced by the family : who is responsible for

the solution?

№ Issue President Government NARegional bodies

Municipa-lity

CommunityRespondent/family of the respondent

1 Housing issues 8.5 37.2 1.0 5.0 13.1 0.0 30.7

2 Unemployment rate 11.9 55.1 1.1 3.2 5.4 2.7 10.3

3 Healthcare issues 4.9 26.2 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 36.1

4 Financial issues 9.4 50.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 0.0 23.4

5 Low salary 16.0 68.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0

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4.5

1.7

1.9

2.3

3.1

3.1

10.5

18.0

21.5

50.4

2.8

4.9

1.8

2.2

2.2

2.8

5.3

19.7

20.3

49.0

None

Inflation

Road Construction

Issues in military sphere

Migration

Low salary

Poverty

International recognition of NKR

Unemplyment rate

Security/peace issues

Would you, please, tell me what are NKR major issues?

(%, 2 responses)

March-15

July-16

Major issues in NKR(March, 2015 and July, 2016)

18


4. Overall Evaluation of the Government’s Performance

19


Perceptions of the developments in NKR over the last year

10.7

22.1

67.2

17.1

34.6

48.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

deteriorated remained the same improved

How would you compare the dynamics of NKR economic development of 2016 with 2015? (%)

March - 15

July - 16

20


Perceptions of the developments in NKR in the upcoming years

10.3

33.9

55.8

24.3

34.0

41.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

will deteriorate will remain the same will improve

Taking into consideration the recent developments, how do you think the general situation in NKR will develop in the upcoming years? (%)

March - 15

July - 16

21


Perceptions of the present and future situation in the NKR (1)(March, 2015 and July, 2016)

43.3

23.5

9.7

18.1

17.8

13.6

15.1

15.0

17.6

27.7

20.3

15.7

24.4

22.9

51.8

37.5

30.6

25.0

17.2

38.6

20.9

16.7

31.3

45.7

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

After the escalation of military actions with Azerbaijani armyon the line of contact, people became more disillusioned

about the future of the country. March-15 (NKR)

After "Four Day April War" people became more disillusionedabout the future of the country. July-16 (NKR)

The economic situation of the country will improve next year.March-15 (NKR)

The economic situation of the country will improve next year.July-16 (NKR)

Nowadays more people consider migration. March-15 (NKR)

After "Four Day April War" more people consider migration.July-16 (NKR)

How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements? (%)

Absolutely disagree Disagree Agree Totally agree

22


17.2

24.6

20.1

20.4

11.8

6.8

23.8

27.5

24.2

20.5

18.0

19.2

45.7

32.8

36.3

34.7

49.7

41.1

13.3

15.0

19.4

24.4

20.5

33.0

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

The material condition of your family will improve for the nextyear. March-15 (NKR)

The material condition of your family will improve next year.July-16 (NKR)

The country provides sufficient conditions to have a family.March-15 (NKR)

The country provides sufficient conditions to have a family.July-16 (NKR)

After the membership of Armenia to Eurasian EconomicUnion, the possibility of the change in the status quo has

increased. March-15 (NKR)

After "Four Day April War" the possibility of the change instatus quo has increased. July-16 (NKR)

How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements? (%)


Perceptions of the present and future situation in the NKR (2)(March, 2015 and July, 2016)

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5. Expectations from the Authorities and

the Level of Trust

24


Level of trust in the authorities (1)(March, 2015 and July, 2016)

39.7

28.6

53.8

35.7

38.3

36.9

32.9

35.5

13.0

19.3

7.4

16.6

9.1

15.2

6.0

12.2

March-15

July-16

March-15

July-16

Totally agree Agree Disagree Absolutely disagree

The authorities do their best to reform the country

The authorities do their best to provide security for the country

How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements? (in %)

25


58.7

48.3

36.0

29.1

30.9

33.9

40.1

33.8

5.9

10.0

14.6

21.0

4.5

7.9

9.4

16.1

March-15

July-16

March-15

July-16


The authorities do their best for international recognition of the

country

The Government is interested in the efficient use of the resources



26


12.3

8.2

28.7

32.1

23.8

22.7

24.4

22.2

26.5

31.3

45.7

22.1

March-15

July-16

July-16


The current authorities perform significant changes for you and

your family

The Government has been transparent in distributing the financial assistance collected

after the war



27


Agreement with the statement ‘‘NKR is on the right track’’ compared in Stepanakert and the Regions

87.0

76.2

90.7

80.1

89.4

78.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

March-15 July-16

Do you think NKR is on the right track? (% of those who agreed)Stepanakert

Regions

2.0

5.3

8.6

16.1

59.0

55.2

30.4

23.4

Country is on the right track (March, 2015)

Country is on the right track (July, 2016)


28


6. Evaluation of the Government

Performance by Sectors

29


4.4

38.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

1.1

2.4

3.7

5.7

7.6

9.7

9.8

14.8

23.3

24.6

1.1

2.4

3.2

8.0

5.0

6.4

15.6

10.4

Other

None

Workplaces

Construction/reconstruction of new schools/kindergartens

Efficient performance of the government

Increase in salary/pension/subsidy

Road construction

Effective foreign policy

Assistance in agriculture

Housing construction

Focus on the army

Assistance to families in need

Maintenance of country's security

What do you think is the most efficient step taken by the Government over the past year? (%)

March-15

July-16

Most efficient measures taken by the Government

30


9.1

31.4

0.3

0.7

1.2

1.3

1.7

2.0

2.7

2.8

3.0

5.2

6.2

10.0

10.1

12.3

10.9

39.7

2.3

3.9

5.6

1

1.2

1.6

2.7

1.4

8.7

1.2

4.8

3.9

8.6

2.3

Other

None

Increase in public transport fee

Decline in agriculture

Incidents in Berdzor

Increase in utility fees

Failures in banking sector

Migration

Poor road conditions

Poverty

Inflation

Waste of financial fund collected for "April War"

Inappropriate personnel policy

Low salary/pension/subsidy

Unemployment rate

The meetings between S.Sargsyan and I.Aliev (Vienna and…

Indifference towards the population

Army problems

Country's security issue

What do you think is the most inefficient step taken by the government over the past year? (%)

March-15

July-16

Most inefficient measures taken by the Government

31


Evaluation of the performance of the Government branches over the last year(March, 2015 and July, 2016)

15.7

7.2

22.6

18.8

23.7

12.8

30.6

28.3

60.6

79.9

46.8

52.9

Army (July-16)

Army (March-15)

Foreign policy (July-16)

Foreign policy (March-15)

How would you rate the performance of the following government branches in the following sectors over the last year? (%)

Negative

Neutral

Positive

32


7. Public Moods, Well-being Index and Public Intentions for Migration

33


Statements

How would you compare the recent year with the last five years…?

Relative indicator(difference

between the positive and

negative rates)Has worsened

Has remained the same

Has improved

Past

NKR economy 17.1 34.6 48.3 31.2

NKR politics 10.9 39.5 49.5 38.6

NKR security 12.5 27.5 60.0 47.5

Several indicators of the situation in the country (past, present and future)(July, 2016)

Statements

How satisfied are you with … ? Relative indicator(difference


negative rates)

Dissatisfied Neutral Satisfied

PresentNKR politics 34.9 37.5 27.6 -7.3

NKR economy 40.8 34.8 24.4 -16.4

Statements

Taking into consideration the recent developments what kind of changes do you expect for the upcoming years?



negative rates)Will worsen

Will remain the same

Will improve

Future Overall NKR situation 24.3 34.0 41.7 17.4

34


Statements

How would you compare the recent year with the last five years…?



negative rates)Has worsened

Has remained the same

Has improved

Past

NKR economy 10.7 22.1 67.2 56.5

NKR politics 7.0 25.1 67.8 60.8

NKR security 4.8 17.4 77.9 73.1

Several indicators of the situation in the country (past, present and future)(March, 2016)

Statements



negative rates)

Dissatisfied Neutral Satisfied

PresentNKR politics 27.4 37.3 35.3 7.9

NKR economy 31.7 36.8 31.5 -0.2

Statements

Taking into consideration the recent developments what kind of changes do you expect for the upcoming years?



negative rates)Will worsen

Will remain the same

Will improve

Future Overall NKR situation 10.3 33.9 55.8 45.5

35


Well-being Index (present and future)(July, 2016)

Statements



negative rates)Dissatisfied Neutral Satisfied

Present

Financial condition of your family

40.1 35.9 24.0 -16.1

Your life in general 32.5 26.8 40.7 8.2

Statements

Taking into consideration the recent developments what kind of changes do you expect for the upcoming

years?



negative rates)Will worsenWill remain the

sameWill improve

Future Your family’s life in general 24.3 34.3 41.4 17.1

36


Well-being Index (present and future)(March, 2015)

Statements



negative rates)Dissatisfied Neutral Satisfied

Present

Financial condition of your family

41.3 34.0 24.7 -16.6

Your life in general 30.7 27.9 41.5 10.8

Statements

Taking into consideration the recent developments what kind of changes do you expect for the upcoming

years?



negative rates)Will worsenWill remain the

sameWill improve

Future Your family’s life in general 15.4 34.2 50.4 35.0

37


Public intentions for migration

67.4

13.4

7.411.7

67.3

11.7

7.2

13.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Definitely no No Yes Definitely yes

If you had an opportunity would you migrate from NKR for good? (%)

March - 15 July - 16

80.8%

19.2% March, 2015

18.8% has always lived in NKR

35.6% has moved to NKR from RA

21.0% July, 2016

38


8. NK Conflict and Measures of Its

Settlement

39


17.021.1

46.8

15.2

Abslolutelyunaware

Unaware Aware Totally aware

How aware are you about the negotiation process? (%)

38.1%

Negotiations on the conflict settlement(July, 2016)

1.6 2.0

12.3

84.2

Absolutelyunimportant

Unimportant Important Totallyimportant

How important is NKR presence in the negotiation process? (%)

96.5%

40


Perceptions of the NKR future status

35.1

56.6

7.1

1.1

48.9

46.2

4.3

0.5

0.1

Be independent

Become part of Armenia

Be autonomous region in Armenia

Become part of Russia

Preserve the status quo

Do you think NKR should …? (%)

March-15

July-16

41


"Become part of Armenia" and "Be independent" optionssplit by age groups(July, 2016)

34.1

61.2

43.5

50.251.2

44.2

60.9

36.1

Become part of Armenia Be independent

Do you think NKR should …? (%)18-30y.o.

31-45y.o.

46-60y.o.

61y.o. and older

42


48.3 47.650.0

45.3

40.3

53.6


Do you think NKR should …? (%)Secondary

College

University

"Become part of Armenia" and "Be independent" optionssplit by education(July, 2016)

43


43.1

50.050.846.645.7

47.6

35.0

60.8

38.9

55.6


Do you think NKR should …? (%)Below 1000 EUR

100 - 300 EUR

300 - 500 EUR

500 - 1,000 EUR

1,000 EUR and more

"Become part of Armenia" and "Be independent" optionssplit by income groups(July, 2016)

44


Perceptions of the future status of the 7 regions around NKR

59.7

36.7

2.9

0.3

72.5

25.4

1.8

0.4

Remain as a part of NKR

Become part of Armenia

Be independent

Other

Do you think the 7 regions (Kalbajar, Lachin, Qubadli, Jabrayil, Zangilan, Agdam, Fuzuli) around NKR should … ? (%)

March-15

July-16

45


Recognition of NKR independence by Armenia(July, 2016)

51.1

24.1

12.8

11.0

0.9

6.8

Armenia should recognize NKR independence despiteany circumstances

In case of military actions initiated by Azerbaijan

In case of the deadlock and lack of alternatives in thenegotiation process

Under no circumstances, should Armenia recognizeNKR independence, as it will impede the negotiation

process

Other

D/K

Under which circumstances should Armenia recognize the independence of

NKR? (%)

46


93.6

93.7

63.9

58.1

5.5

5.5

32.5

38.9

0.9

0.8

3.5

3.0

Citizens of NKR should decide their status by referendumor elections. March-15

Citizens of NKR should decide their status by referendumor elections. July-16

The guarantee of peace between Armenia andAzerbaijan should be provided by the presence of

international peacekeepers. March-15

The guarantee of peace Armenia and Azerbaijan shouldbe provided by the presence of international

peacekeepers. July-16

A number of options for NK conflict settlement have be proposed. Would you, please, tell us which one is the most acceptable option for you? (in %)

Acceptable

Unacceptable

D/K

Options for NK conflict settlement (1)(March, 2015 and July, 2016)

47


15.1

25.7

58.6

54.2

70.0

83.5

73.5

33.9

42.4

22.1

1.4

0.8

7.5

3.3

7.8

The guarantee of peace between Armenia andAzerbaijan should provide an opportunity for refugees

and IDPs to return to their previous settlements. March-15

The guarantee of peace between Armenia andAzerbaijan should provide an opportunity for refugees

and IDPs to return to their previous settlements. July-16

NK should be given a temporary status which willguarantee its security and autonomy. March-15

NK should be given a temporary status which willguarantee its security and autonomy. July-16

Expansion of international observation mission andmonitoring mechanisms. July-16


Acceptable

Unacceptable

D/K


48


81.1

81.2

2.7

3.3

17.3

15.3

96.3

95.3

1.6

3.5

1.0

1.4

If the regional and global powers impose handover ofterritories to Azerbaijan, people should resist with

weapons. March-15

If the regional and global powers impose handover ofterritories to Azerbaijan, people should resist with

weapons. July-16

The negotiations of the conflict settlement will beefficient if the five regions of NKR are conceded to

Azerbaijan. March-15

The negotiations of the conflict settlement will beefficient if the five regions of NKR are conceded to

Azerbaijan. July-16


Acceptable

Unacceptable

D/K


49


Acceptable/Unacceptable options of NK settlement

35.1

32.9

16.4

6.3

4.9

0.6

0.3

1.6

1.2

0.7

5.6

Maintenance of the status quo with the presence ofArmenian army, Armenian side expands the defence…

Recognition of NKR independence by Armenia(preserving territories/peace)

Military actions (final victory against Azerbaijan,capitulation)

Military actions (Liberation of the remaining territoriesof Azerbaijan: Martakert, Martuni, Shahumyan)

Maintenance of status quo with the replacement ofthe Armenian army with international peacekeeping…

The concession of the following 5 regions (Qubadli.Jabrayil, Zangilan, Agdam and Fuzuli) to Azerbaijan in…

The concession of the following 7 regions (Qubadli.Jabrayil, Zangilan, Agdam, Fuzuli, Lachin and…

Other (Recogniton of NKR independence byinternational community, placement of Russian…

Other (NKR participation in the negotiation process,be part of Armenia)

None

D/K

Please tell us which of the following options is the most acceptable for you as a settlement alternative of NK (%)

50


Possible tension on the line of contact

23.9

33.3 34.5

8.28.3

21.0

42.2

28.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Absolutely impossible Impossible Possible Totally possible

How possible is it that Azerbaijan will continue large scale military actions on the line of contact after 1. … recent casualties (2015) /

2. … "Four Day April War"? (2016) (in %)

March-15 July-16

57.2% -> 29.3% 42.8% -> 70.7%

51


International guarantees of security(July, 2016)

31.0

18.9

18.4

14.5

9.3

8.7

.0 20.0 40.0

Joint statement made by OSCE Minsk Group andthe presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan

Provision of a demilitarized corridor along theline of contact

Placement of international peacekeepers

Introduction of monitoring mechanisms

Powerful defence army

Resolutions by UN Security Council

Which of the following international guarantees of security do you find the most efficient? (%)

N=891

52


The initiators of the “Four day war” in April(July, 2016)

61.6

52.4

13.5

5.4

1.2

0.6

Azerbaijan

Turkey

Russia

Other external powers

The Armenian side

Agreement between Armeniaand Azerbaijan

Which party/parties do you think has initiated the “Four day war” in April ?(in %, multiple response)

53


15.4

9.2

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.8

2.5

5.4

9.3

11.6

14.5

36.7

47.0

0 10 20 30 40 50

None

D/K

China

Uruguay

Great Britain

Greece

Italy

Georgia

Iran

USA

Germany

France

Russia

Which countries apart from Armenia do you consider as supporters of NKR?

(%, multiple responses)

International supporters and opponents of NKR(July, 2016)

0.3

0.2

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.9

2.6

2.9

3.0

3.2

4.0

90.5

92.2

0 20 40 60 80 100

None

D/K

Muslim countries

Iran

Belarus

Ukraine

Israel

USA

Georgia

Kazakhstan

RF

Turkey

Azerbaijan

Which countries do you consider as opponents of NKR?

(%, multiple responses)

54


Attitude of the respondents towards the sales of weapons to Azerbaijan by Russia(July, 2016)

1.7

50.6

30.0

17.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Russia keeps the balance ofweaponry in the region

This is a business, even ifRussia refuses to sell, other

countries will do

This is a business, howeverRussia as a military ally to

Armenia should stop sellingweapons to Azerbaijan

This is treason againstArmenia by its military ally

Tell us please, what do you think about Russia selling weapons to Azerbaijan? (%)

47.7%

55


The file will be published on EuFoA website www.eufoa.org

Thank you!

http://www.eufoa.org/

Presentations & Public Speaking

Opinion polls in Nagorno-Karabakh: Comparative results from 2015 and 2016