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IEFE
PV Integration into the Gridcost of storage
Franz Baumgartner, Prof. Dr.ZHAW Zurich University of Applied Sciences,
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
ZHAW Zurich University of Applied Sciences, School of Engineering Winterthur; Renewable Energy, IEFEinv. Talk at Bifacial Workshop, am 2012-04-24 Konstanz D
Toc1. Traditional power flow in the grid2. PV power limited by the grid3. Cost of storage & Smart Grid
IEFEGlobal drivers for the CHANGE
CO2 Peak Oil
2100 +6°C?
regionalclimate changes
Stat. prov. Oil reserves : 2050 ?, BRIC…?
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
Risk's: Costs / Environment Chances: Jobs / Business+1000 CHF
@ 3000 Lit
+2000 CHF
@ 3000 Lit
Stat. prov. Oil reserves : 2050 ?, BRIC…?
Öl-Preisakt. 120$/blin 2008;40$ - 150$
200$/bl ?
Consensus change to renewables D, CH….?Deep water horizon, Japan nuclear spring 11
IEFECost reduction with different signs
Photovoltaic / cost reduction Nuclear reactor / cost reduction
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
Breyer, EUPVSEC, Hamburg Sept 2011
IEFECost reduction of modules and BOS
Oerlikon Solar, Produktionlinie, Schweiz Gerold Büchel, PV Industry Forum, Munich 10 June 2008
KAI MT
new 2012
0.35€/W
cost .o.o.
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
2012 2020
Module60%
30%
BOS40%
BOS70%
30 Rp/kWh PV Trends
15 Rp/kWh
19 Rp/kWh
BOS 70€/m2 mounting at 14% , 0.5€/Wp
IEFETraditional Electrical Power Engineering
Each electron has to find their customer each second !
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
VSE Schweiz; http://www.strom.ch/de/dossiers/stromgrafiken.html
http://www.ntb.ch/java/Drehfeld.html
IEFE1. Traditionelle Stromnetze im Wandel
• The leading Renewable Electricity Market Germany will face the limitations in the grid first!
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide 6
IEFETraditional Power Plant’s in Germany
Fr. 04.02.2011 So 20.03.2011
18 GW Nuklear
12 GW Nuklear
www.transparency.exx.com
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
Abschaltung von 7 KKW Reaktoren am 16. März 2011Nach dem Unfall in Japan am 11. März und vor den Landtagswahlenin Baden Württemberg: Neckarwestheim-1, Philippsburg-1 (Baden-Württ.),Biblis A und B (Hessen), Isar-1 (München) und Unterweser (Niedersachs).
IEFEWind and Solar relevant in today’s German GridFriday 04.02.201112:00 load 68 GW33% Wind+Solar
Sunday 20.03.201112:00 load 46 GW25% Wind+Solar
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
Starke Windkraft
Starke Solarkraft
www.transparency.exx.com
IEFELokale Sonnenstromproduktion - Gestern
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide 9
http://www.sma.de/en/news-information/pv-electricity-produced-in-germany.html
IEFEBRD Solar - Gestern
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide 10
http://www.transparency.eex.com
Solar 16 GW
Wind <2 GW
IEFE1% PV market growth Germany, simple modell
9% 51GW2017
12% 68GW2020
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
+ 1%/ajährlichneuerPV Strom-anteil
4%24GW_PV2012-03
3% 17GW_PV
2011-03
IEFEGermans North South Bottle Neck
Sturmtief Ekkehardt am 8/9. Dez 2011, erforderte Kaltreserve Ölkraftwerk in Graz A;Block C des Atomkraftwerks Gundremmingen war unplanmäßig abgeschaltet
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide 12
Quelle: Institute for Power Systems and Power Economics, RWTH Aachen, University, 2005;bzw. N. Schrader, Deutsche Umwelthilfe, Netzintegration BUND Umwelttage Radolfzell, 2010-01-05
http://www.transparency.eex.com
IEFESwitzerland by factors behind RE Germany
vgl. Ziel Schweiz Bundesrat und VSE für 2035 ein plus von EE 7 bis 10%, Stand 2010
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
201096.100
Was wird heute 2012 erreicht!(nicht was wurde versprochen oder gewollt!)
Schweiz BRDSolarstrom 0.2% 4%Windstrom 0.1% 7%Biogene Stoffe 0.5% 6%Wasserkraft 57% 4%
IEFE
• 56% Wasserkraft• Leistung Pump-
speicherwerke1.4 GW (2% elec.)
• Ausbauziele Schweiz ca. 4GW
• Der Erlös aus Exporten
Loadprofil in Switzerland 2008
PV ??Hydro
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
• Der Erlös aus Exportenvon Elektrizität 66.3TWh lag im Jahr 2010 bei 5064 Millionen Franken (7,65Rappen/kWh). Für Importe 66.8TWh ergaben sich Ausgaben von 3736 Millionen Franken (5,60Rappen/kWh).
VSE Schweiz, 2008
http://www.strom.ch/de/dossiers/stromgrafiken.html
Nuclear
Hydro
IEFE2. PV Power limited by the grid
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide 15
IEFESzenario A: Überschüsse am Wochenende
5% PV
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
10% PV
F. Baumgartner, Progress of Photovoltaic, Oct 2011, EUPVSEC 2010
IEFEPhotovoltaik hat stets Vorrang im Netz
Szenario B: mit 17% PV Stromanteildie Grundlast wird nachgeregelt (vgl. EEG in BRD)
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected]; F. Baumgartner, Progress of Photovoltaic, Oct 2011, EUPVSEC 2010
Plenary Talk 5EP.2.1, F. Baumgartner at EU Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference 2010-09-10, Valencia
IEFEErgebnis aller Szenarien
50%load
losses
Keine weiteren neuen Erneuerbaren Quellen berücksichtigt!
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
Leistung für Speicher 30% der mittleren Leistung (ca. 3GW)
IEFEPeak shift - battery storage
PV production0.20-0.40 SFr/kWh
Speichern0.30-0.70 SFr/kWh
todays costs
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
N. Kreutzer, C. Allert, J. Weide, M. Rothert, F. Thim; 4BV.1.3125th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference /5th World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion, 6-10 September 2010, Valencia, Spain
IEFE
ZHAW case study Switzerlandgrid extension versu battery storage
115kW PV
100kWh(100 000SFr flow redox)Return of investment 10 yearsat a feed-in tarif of 0.42 SFr/kWh+ KEV 9600 SFr
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide 20
+ KEV 9600 SFr400kWh no RoI
30kW line limit46 GWh lost,grid extension costs90 000 SFr(+ feed-in 19600SFrRoI 5 years)
Lukas Baumgartner, ZHAW SoE Projektarbeit 2011
4x50mm2
4x240mm2 / 440m
+3%
+5%14 MWh
IEFEStorage size
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide 21
IEFEEV’s battery, typ. Lithium 20kWh
Each EV20kWh pro E-Autoca. 6000 Fr (2020)
Schweiz 100% EV4. Mio E-mobile=80 GWh
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide 22
=80 GWh(ca. 24 Mrd SFr !!!!!)
Pumped Hydro St. lake25Mio m3 Wasser600m = 41GWh
Todays hydro capac. SwitzerlandCa. 9 000 GWh
40875000 Li Battery, Nissan Leaf
IEFEDie Kosten der Batteriespeicher sollen sinken
Anmerkung: BA Arbeit 2010 ZHAW; R. Bosshard, M. Moser; Li-Ionen Offerte, 900€/kWh mit 80% DOD von 4.3kWh, 2000 Zyklen, folgt 76 Rp/kWh (25 Rp at 300€)
ca. 20 Rp/kWh
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
25kWh battery cost at $11,250
25kWh battery cost at $6,250
Rp/kWh
Li-Ion batteries: 1000$/kWh (2010) to 400$/kWh(2020), NAS Nat. Academies of Science, US
IEFE
ABB & EKZ Li 500 kWh Batt –UPS – industrial use
Started Feb 2012• 1MW power• 10 000 Li cells (20 EV’s)• 95% efficiency• Load leveling 20kV
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide
• Load leveling 20kV
24
IEFENaS high temperature battery
NaS: 0.5MW x 6 h
(Preisbasis 300MW, large NAS Battery forUnited Arab Emirates in 2009, 720 Mio US$; about 2300$/kWTotal kWh = 330,000kW×6hours×4500 = 8.91 billion kWhCycles 4500
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
www.photovoltik.eu 2011 Juni
cost 0.72/8.91 = US $0.08/kWh + interest
efficiency is 75%Cost = (4/3)×0.06 + 0.08 + interest = US $0.16 + interest
www.energystoragenews.com, 2009 Nov
IEFECompresse air – daily storage
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide 26
Cost target 2020: 3-5 €ct/kWh ( 1GW for 8 h )VDE, Energiespeicher Studie 2009; www.vde.com
IEFEPV –EV- and Battery Storages at Home
• Sharp nutzt im Demonstra-tionsprojekt Eco House die Batterie des Elektroauto iMiEV, um die Leistung von 8 kW dem Hausstromnetz zur Verfügung zu stellen. (z.B. über DC Hausstrom-
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
(z.B. über DC Hausstrom-netz) Gleichzeitig ist die Sharp Leistungselektronik fähig, 4 kWh PV Energie in 30 Minuten wieder in die Autobatterie zu laden.
http://sharp-world.com/corporate/news/110222.html
Anmerkung: ca. 10 000€ für kWh Batterie mit Elektronik
IEFEStorage technologies on the market
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide 28
IEFEBattery Data
Speichertyp Heute[€/MWh]
Trend 2020[€/MWh]
Anmerkung
Druckluft - Kavernen 30-60 30 Wirkungsgrad
Flow-Redox 400 100 Langzeitspeicher
Lithium Batterie 500 120 auch Kurzzeitspeicher, E-Mobile
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide
Bleibatterie 200 100 Zyklenzahl, Pb Einsatz ?
NaS Hochtemperatur 250 80 Leistungspreis hoch, Entladung
Methan ? ? Wirkungsgrad, Erdgasnetz
Wasserstoff 250 ? 100? Kosten / Infrastruktur
Schwungrad ? ? Geringe Leistungsdichte, Kosten
Pumpspeichersee Hydro 30-100 30-50 Standorte limitiert
29
www.photovoltik.eu 2011 Juni
IEFEPower to Gas
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide 30 http://abgnova.de/pdf/Sterner_IWES_Stadt_Frankfurt_ABGnova_2011.pdf
IEFEElectricity Import / Export Switzerland 2009
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected]; BFE Bericht 2009, Ausgabe 2011
1300 Mio SFrprofit in 2010el. inport/export
IEFE
New pumped hydro in Linth-Limmat 2015 Invest 2.2 Mrd SFr
• Muttsee 25Mio m3 / 600m1GW / 2000h ? /a 2Rp/kWh at 50a fin.
• equal to 4 Mio EVje 10kWh
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide
je 10kWh 50% of EV cap.(all cars in CH)
Ref. Fischwww.axpo.chVortrag ZHAW SoEEnergie Apero 12-03-08www.zhaw.ch
32
IEFEChanging the sin (a t)
• Mech. tracking or tracking + mirror, EW, bifacial
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide 33
Solar Wings cable based trackingpatent: WO2010 006460 Solarinstallation Solar Wings
IEFE80% reduction of Pn is to much!
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide 34
IEFEPV hot water “storage”
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide 35
V. Quaschning, HTW Berlin, PV-Konf., Staffelstein, 2012-03-01
IEFEBig Smart Grid Business
Acquired in July 2011, price 2.3 Bill $
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide 36
Sasaki, CEO, 16. Dec 2011
IEFEOutlook: Progess of cost reduction
1 Mio EV’s
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
Financing period of PV plant
10%PV?
20%PV?
F. Baumgartner, Progress of Photovoltaic, Oct 2011, EUPVSEC 2010
1 Mio EV’s5 GW PV
IEFESolutions
1. Load switching
2. Limiting PV + Wind
• Domestic hot water, heat pump at noon!EV’s
• 20% PV amount in CH const. baseload pump. hydr.
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
3. Module orientation E,W, bif.4. Large area grid extension
5. Storage: pumped hydro,battery, power to gas?
const. baseload pump. hydr.• Depends on Pn limit (0.9)• 1GW / 1000km / 1Mrd Fr
• battery (0.2 to 0.5€/kWh)compressed air (0.05) eff!!Efficiency 0.1 €/kWh seasonale storage
IEFEThank you for Attention
Download University website: www.zhaw.ch/~bauf
Integration of PV into the grid
Erschienen 2010 im Progress of Photovoltaics, Wiley; 2010 Online ISSN: 1099-159X;http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pip.1047/pdf
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide 39
Image: www.solarwings.li
650kW, Waldshut 60kW, Tenna
IEFEABB – Office Smart Grid
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide 41
P. Korba et. al.
IEFESolution 5: Further PV cost reduction
Why PV has a great future?
Because further cost reductions will be done!
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
Other Support• PV installations on
EAST/WEST oriented roofs• PV Trackers find no limits in
the morning• Feed-in-tarif have to support
peak shift and the amount of self consumption
Remark• Yield is lower than optimum
south oriented• There are still limits at noon• at high PV penetration rates
also small PV inverters have to shut down (power line)
IEFEPrices at electricty stock exchange
University of Applied Science Zurich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf; 120424 [email protected]; slide . http://www.solarwirtschaft.de/fileadmin/media/pdf/izes_kurzgutachten_pv.pdf
IEFEStudy: Germany 50% Wind+PV+Bio+Hydro
Y.M. Saint Drenan et al., BEE Dyn. Load Study IWES Kassel, Germany, Dec 2009
Today <40GW / 0dResult 50%RE:-35GW base load
daily av.no storage / tran.
BEE 50% Scenario 2020:PV 6.6% (40GW)Wind 25% (55GW)Bio 9.2% (9.3GW)
University of Applied Science Zuerich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf ; 120308 [email protected];
no storage / tran.<10GW / 10d<15GW / 19d<20GW / 44d<25GW / 3mo
Power capacity:16/18GW import/exp.
5GW pump. hyd.