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Restructuring monocities as a lever of paradigm shift towards iconomics for Russian economy
Клод РошкеПрофевор университет париж сакле
Claude Rochet Professeur des universités
Chercheur associé LAREQUOI Université de Paris [email protected]
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
2Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not
Physics of city What the smart cities from the past can teach
us? Towards an organic and sustainable
innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia
01/05/2023
3Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not
Physics of city What the smart cities from the past can teach
us? Towards an organic and sustainable
innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
4
Top down mono functional cityMonocities have turned to be an obstacle to growth in Russia, representing up to 31% GDP.A US$ 525 million cost for the federal Govt each year
Monocities are the legacy of the paradigm of the IInd industrial revolution based on mass and standardized production.
Iconomics is the new paradigm based on information techs.
Togliatti (Russia):
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
5
Monocities= specialization in decreasing returns activities Decreasing returns due to
• mono specialization in primary activities• localization in remote places• No synergies between activities
• 335 mono goroda (31% of towns)• 16 Mon hab. (25% urban pop.)• Urbanisation rate: 75%
01/05/2023
6
What a smart city can’t be A collection of « smarties » A techno centric city A city without past
= EU ideology!
A deterministic system
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
Ont the contrary Smart city = Integrated complex system
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
7 Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and
why Russian monocities may not Physics of the city What the smart cities from the past can teach
us? Towards an organic and sustainable
innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia
8Cities scaling laws
01/05/2023
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
Densité
Pote
ntie
l d’
inte
rcon
nexi
ons
Y=x2 Metcalfe law
But…..
Distance
Inte
rcon
nexi
ons
réel
les Von Thünen Tobler law
Exte
rnal
ités +
et _
Taille
But…..
TailleNo
mbr
e de
ville
sMarshall West Bettencourt law
Zipf law
Combining these laws:
05/01/2023Size x Number of cities
Conn
ectio
ns x
wea
lth
New town
Clustering medium size cities
New townDefining the perimeter and the« in and out » interrelations of the system is a key issue in cities 'system design
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
10
Good and bad complexity
At a certain point growing complexity produces more negative than positive externalities and become unmonitorable
Bad complexityGood complexity
Growing size
Grow
ing
com
plex
ity
E. g. Detroit (USA), Russian monocities…
01/05/2023
11
A (really) smart city is an emerging ecosystem
Smart city framework= A great number of interactions between people x connected objects whose quantity and speed is in dramatic increase at date.
The behavior of a system is predictable when the sequence of transitions from one state to another can be described.
Emergence takes place when the space of possible states or rules of transitions changes: the city can’t be described by the model that described it until then. (Heylighen & Joslyn 1991) : The behavior is no longer predictable
Modeling emergence implies:1. Carrying on a watch of all kinds of as well exogenous (e.g. human behavior) as
endogenous (e.g. disruptive technology) changes.2. Mapping the properties, desirable an undesirable, the system can take. 3. The values attached to theses properties in a precise context.4. Defining a meta system which variety could monitor the growth of complexity.
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
12What modeling means?
Reality
Model = abstract representation of perceived reality
Human constructed reality
Emergence
Transition
fedback
Evolutionary model
13
A smart city is an integration of two kinds of systems
01/05/2023
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
Hard systems may be modeled thanks to the laws of physics (conservative systems)
Soft systems can’t be modeled with the laws of physics (dissipative systems)
- Social sciences- Big data- Autopoeisis
- Multi-agents modeling
The key of the success is here…
… while business is there
Politics must prevail on a bottom up basis
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
14 Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and
why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past
teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable
innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
15
Middle age cities were smart: organic development, common good, synergies between economic activities
Common good
Vivere politico
Economic welfare
Pivate good
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
16Direct democracy was at the root of the city life and its organic evolutionA russian born
institution
Novogorod veche: Rule by popular assembly
Новгоро́дская респу́блика вече
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
17Middle Age cities grew on an organic planning basis
« Organic planning does not begin with a preconceived goal; it moves from need to need, from opportunity to opportunity, in a series of adaptations that themselves become increasingly coherent and purposeful, so that they generate a complex final design, hardly less unified than a pre-formed geometric pattern. »
Coherence without the need of a detailed plan!
From organic growth to top-down planning
05/01/2023
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
18
Екатеринбург was founded top down in 1723 to be a mono industry city.
Modern cities (from XVI° onward) were designed through detailed plans.
The political associated ideal was autocracy (Vasily Tatishchev).
The opposite of the organic grown-up middle-age city!
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
19 Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and
why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past
teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable
innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia
01/05/2023
20
Urban dynamics: from neo cybernetics to autopoesis First order cybernetics (Forrester):
The city as a self regulating system by single feedback loop…
... Or a super command and control machinery (Rio) The 2nd order of cybernetics includes autopoeisis of
human dissipative systems The complexity of the city is a combination of several
laws and not top-down predictable There is a positive correlation between growth of the
city size and its complexity.... ... But there is a good and a bad complexity
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
21
A quasi zero order cybernetics unable to self regulate
Paris métro….
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
22First order cybernetics city
The myth of the super mind and perfect control
IBM at Rio do Janeiro
The big brother like city
01/05/2023
23Autopoeisis: Why and How?
An autopoeitic system is “a network of processes of production (transformation and destruction) of components which: (i) through their interactions and transformations continuously regenerate and realize the network of processes that produced them; and (ii) constitute it as a concrete unity in space in which they (the components) exist by specifying the topological domain of its realization as such a network.” H. Maturana
Autopoeisis is a property of human dissipative system: strong entropy and correlative capabilities to reproduce itself permanently thanks to its internal interactions
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
24
Autopoeisis: Why and How? Autopoeisis makes the system able to face
with the rapid changing of the environment: “This generalized view of autopoiesis
considers systems as self-producing not in terms of their physical components, but in terms of its organization, which can be measured in terms of information and complexity. In other words, we can describe autopoietic systems as those producing more of their own complexity than the one produced by their environment".
C. Gershenson
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
25
Autopeoietic system integration works bottom-up based on “ordinary actions of the people”
NO! An evolutionary process
Integration process is bottom-up…… based on ordinary interactions
We must understand how ordinary people behave
Q: Is there an architect with a master plan?
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
26The necessity of an evolutionary dynamics
Emergence of the city pattern
Experiencing autopoeitic properties
Organic complexity growth
Example of impact of an exogenous/endogenous change: The propagation of the electric vehicle
Urban Lifecycle Management
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
27 Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and
why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past
teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable
innovating city Methodology and examples (good and
bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia
Methodology : Strategic Analysis
01/05/2023
28
Why building a city & what are the strategic goals?
Who are the stakeholders?
What are the generic functions to be performed
by a smart city?
With which organs? Technical devices, software…
With which smart people?
Conception, metamodel framework, steering
Subsystems and processes
People and tools
Why designing this ecosystem?Who will live in the city?What are its activities?
How the city will be fed?Where the city is located ? (context)
What are the functions to be performed to reach the goals and how
do they interact?
With which organs and ressources?
How people will interact with the artifacts?
How civic life will organize?
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
People as end-users
People as citizens
01/05/2023
29
Why do we need strong citizen based interactions within a system? (1)
Economy: An economic structure based on synergies of economics activities
is the condition to wealth creation which reinforces itself through interaction of a political power based on the Common Good (Reinert, 2006, Rochet, 2012)
FFF (Failed, Fragile and Failing states) : The missing link is related to the lack of increasing returns based on « coopetitive » diffusion of means (…) productive governance often enforces the development sustainable productive structures based usually on a participatory system.
“State failure an fragility are often preceded, or at least accompanied, by failure and fragility of cities” (Reinert & Kattel, 2009)
“The more the participatory system is closed to democracy and shared economic growth with special focus on health, education and communication infrastructure building, more quickly the divergence between countries narrows down.» (Reinert &Kattel, 2009)
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
30
Why do we need strong citizen based interactions within a system? (2)
Resilience: A smart city is a highly internally connected
facing with a turbulent environment, that challenges its resilience.
Strong social capabilities enforces the autopoeitic properties of the system, and consequently its resilience.
E.g. Christchurch (NZ)
26/01/2016
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
31
New techniques arise
Design thinking (Stanford, Ecole des Ponts)
01/05/2023
32
Why do we need strong citizen based interactions within a system? (3)
Citizen is at the interface of technological devices which consume and produce data (e.g. The smart phone)
The frontier between production and consumption is blurred more than in other cases of information economy (McLuhan): the prosumer.
In a rapid innovative system the citizen is a lead user of the innovation process (Von Hippel).
The power of these technical systems requires strong political control to be both fully efficient and not becoming the level of a totalitarian system (Simondon).Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
33
Direct democracy has a strong record in the management of cities and human communities as complex systems
Schumpeterian economics correlates synergies between activities, political freedom and common weal.
Traditional decision making system may help modeling a resilient human system e.g.: ongoing research project of modeling an eco-efficient drinking water network in Angola with the palaver tree.
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
34Bad example: The Globalized city
01/05/2023City centerSuburbPeriphery Suburb Periphery
Inco
mes
ineq
ualit
y
Low cost immigrants Low cost
immigrants
Old medium and working class
Super riches
Connected upper class
Communautarism and lost of urban synergies
Urban poors
Regional insurrection in desindustrialized periphery
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
35The political divide between globalized cities and peripheries
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
36The false green cities
Integrating imported pollution, energy waste…. produced by a dysfunctional ecosystem
Is the city really green? The worst case: Paris
socio-ethnic greenwashing
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
37
The perfectly integrated smart city: Singapore
The man-made mechanical forest consists of 18 supertrees that act as vertical gardens, generating solar power, acting as air venting ducts for nearby conservatories, and collecting rainwater. To generate electricity, 11 of the supertrees are fitted with solar photovoltaic systems that convert sunlight into energy, which provides lighting and aids water technology within the conservatories below
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
38Singapore vs. NorilskCommon features: Unhealthy and hostile climate, no reason for existing except a political will, no natural assets, no industry, no initial social capital…
Depressing monoindustry and pollution A city thought of from the beginning as a smart nation
01/05/2023
39New paradigms in public decision making
Polycentric governance (Ostrom): deciding in small units on a large scale
Bottom up decision processes : e.g. Michael Batty modeling decision process as a Markov chains to bring back the city in a ergodic state
Large deliberative upfront processes reduce uncertainty e.g. The Parable of the Hare and the Tortoise: Small Worlds, Diversity, and System Performance (Lazer & Friedman 2005)
« In short, cities are more like biological than mechanical systems. The rise of the sciences of complexity, which have changed the direction of system theory from top down to the bottom-up is one that treats such systems as open, based more on the product of an evolutionary process than a grand design » Michael Batty « A new Science of Cities » 2015
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
40
A paradoxical research question:Can we conceive the gov’t of a city that should not need a government?
At date, if we assume the benchmark of a smart city is Singapore: it’s not really a democracy.
At date, we don’t know large systems that have developed spontaneously self organizing properties .
Rules, as a genetic code of an ecosystem, are the result of a long term learning process: Cf. biomimicry
A Machiavellian approach: The Prince is to fix the good institutions from the top down giving the citizens the rights to challenge the power of the few in charge, so that top down and bottom-up converge.
We have a lot of references of direct democracy experiences, how they were born, how they died.
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
41 Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and
why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past
teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable
innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia
Smart cities and paradigm shift in Russia towards iconomy
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
Training of actors,
Knowledge transfer to SME
Smart Cities Pilot Projects
Social capabilities
improvement
System modeling and
integration capacities
Investments and reference
realizations
Territories development
Technology transfer
Absorptive capacities
Organic development
R&DActions Realizations Strategic assets
Autopoeisis
01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
43
Business model transition
Present Russia Fed Gov’t 520 Mion USD Social cost of monocities
Transition scenario
Smartization of monocities
Investments
Foreign Investments
+ Increasing returns of smart cities
Virtuous reinforcement
01/05/2023 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 44
Merci!
44
Thank you!
Спасибо