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2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:1/60 - - / - - / - /LOPA - /BCP Tool/Form Method Methodology Philosophy

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2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:1/60

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« ã ä � (

/

çè

« ù æÛ Ü ßà

« ØÙ

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/

ÜN

b Ó " ßà . | � ÷ ø �Ý Ç o "÷ ø � � � 1 \

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2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:30/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �Unknown (Unexpected) Risk p q~ K2 p

/

wn ¦ §

K2 ÇÞ ß d Õ q _ UV à >

/ á R ¹º

~ Ç ¡ ü

Çâ d

WXY Z _ '([ \

e.g., « � Í Ö ò

« ã äå ñ¢ JK �£ � ¥ � ¨ © k � �«ª i M ¦ j

Source:

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2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:31/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

g æ çd èé _Æ êë 5 4ì w íî ïð '. ' ñò ó4ì w íî ïð '. ' ñò ó4ì w íî ïð '. ' ñò ó4ì w íî ïð '. ' ñò ó ôô ôô

s �

Normal Accident TheorySociologist Charles Perrow,(1984)

identifies three conditions that make a system likely to be susceptible to Normal Accidents:

1.The system is complex

2.The system is tightly coupled

3.The system has catastrophic potential

Redundancy

P � �²

:

1.

f õ � c� � * c 6 � �

2.

f å ã � á� ô

(

ö y õ � ÷×

/

1 øù úû)

3.

f á ü �Í Î ý l ´ ç 2 3 * þ² * � N é�

High Reliability OrganizationFive characteristics of High Reliability

Organizations that have been identified ÿ

Weick, K. E.; Kathleen M. Sutcliffe, 2001.

�that keeps them working well when

facing unexpected situations.

1.Preoccupation with failure(

S c � Ê �ô 12 1 â � ab

)

2.Reluctance to simplify interpretations (

�� ß �! � � Û� Ô ý© � �

why)

3.Sensitivity to operations

ÿ [ � �ã � � �

4.Commitment to resilience(

� Ô �

)

5.Deference to expertise

ÿ � ± Ø ä �

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2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:32/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �i M ¦ j �¤ L¤ N K �K L £ � MK h J ¨ M L £

Micro Viewpoint – Yes, We Can (Prevent Accident)

Risk = Severity * Likelihood'( � Ä

=

�� K2 o ¸

(

d � � �²

)

C K2 cd ÊË ð Ì

(

Êï ] �)

�� K2 o ¸� ] Ä �

/PMT � c

burn-out

Redundant�Y ã ä

SOP áã ä Z!

/buddy system" Þ ] òÔ #

/

� ö ð$ �d Ú % X

/ & %' (

�� K2 ÊËÌ)* + X # ,- / ú

] . /] ð{ 0� ] ] 1

2� é êë é ø

/

ð 3 ø

O ø q 45 � N ø , 67 ã ä

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:33/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �Macro Viewpoint- No, We Can’t. (

D¿ d K2 8 � o ¸Æ Ç)O D¿ ¡ � ï K2

:

¡ � Ç9 : �Ð ¡ � Ç y ; o< ¿ =Ð ¡ � Ç 0 1 :;

V � ¯ 6 Q R

5W1H:

Á ÑÁ ¹Á á PÁ ) ab

V å �> ? Q R � @ ®

something had been done to prevent the accident (

© Á ¯ Â þ> Z¯ A á * - . á .[ \ ]

)V IB © Sê M P CD E �

-

M ¬ Sê � ³´ F L� � � M � * r C Ú } P ÑGab Ì cV Hû ê IJ d K Â õ � L� � ô ² * �M ²

O NO � P5 8 R Í � K2 d | } � ï K2

V ÷ øù à

/Ë W �ô f > ? Q� ^ R $ ½ � Sê ab

V > ? - .S Y � � * Ê Ëû PT è û

V U V � V � á W ¬ RX � Y R

V Ù 3 O 6 � P 6 ÿ ³´

i M ¦ j �¤ L¤ N K �K L £ � MK h J ¨ M L £

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:34/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �Known vs Unknown

Micro Viewpoint ��

/

# ßà P ÙÚ &# � � Z²

£ [s ï  C '( d S \

ê ]^ 3

/

_` 12 ÑÒ

/

aô bc

¼ B 3 ú

/

U=� � �ô õ

=

# (ã äô õ �d e

¼f 3 g� � �h

/

$% h

/

� á ½h

o ¸i Ö � ÃÖ >j

# ßà

/

S· Ò 4 5 * - . Ü Ýã Þ� ³´ Ù 3

/

� °±²

Macro Viewpoint� �/

ç ä/

k �/

kl �× � Z²

£ [ ï  C '( d S \

m � n P " â � � X Po p

/

q r

¼ ú 3 B/

O U=ô õ �s t àb P Ñ Ù � u

¼ g 3 v� é $ � m � � Ùÿ P w x

o ¸i Ö �y z >j

# ßà

/

S· Ò < / 0 * . Ü Ýã Þ

³´ Ù 3 �

/

°±² �

i M ¦ j �¤ L¤ N K �K L £ � MK h J ¨ M L £

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:35/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

�� 34 { : | } � �~ l : ;< � ~ � �

uv D º wn ¦ §Ð � � Ì s �

..

Source:

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g ¨h i M ¦ j� ¦ �¤ L¤ N K � �

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:36/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �Micro Viewpoint

0 ð � æ hi

(

� ß W ù æ

/

Û Ü

/

ã ä

)» ¼�

Layer of Protection

g ¨h i M ¦ j� ¦ �¤ L¤ N K � �

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:37/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �Macro Viewpoint� Ä _ �� d hi

(

� �� Ë æ

/

õ �

)» ¼� � � _� � o { �Þ ß �` �� � j Hint:

�� ��

/

� � ��

Source: http://tx.technion.ac.il/~gordoncn/05072011/3.Nancy_presentation.ppt

g ¨h i M ¦ j� ¦ �¤ L¤ N K � �

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:38/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �Macro Viewpoint� Ä _ �� d hi

(

� �� ä Ú � 6 � ß W � Ù

e.g. Dupant)�� � à � Ä

/

� � �� �� �� � � j

Source:http://opim.wharton.upenn.edu/risk/library/2007Elliott,PRK,etal_'EverydaySafety'.pdf

g ¨h i M ¦ j� ¦ �¤ L¤ N K � �

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:39/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

� � : �� �� ��  ¡ ¡

/

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g ¨h i M ¦ j� ¦ �¤ L¤ N K � �

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:40/60

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à ¤Ä ÅÆ ÇÈ �§

ÉÊ m Ç D¿ Ë Ín £ »

(ILO slogan: Accidents can be prevented)

g ¨h i M ¦ j� ¦ �¤ L¤ N K � �

Ì ÍÎ � �Ï

« ÐÑ G Ò �Ó Ô

« - . }[ © Á PÕ Ö« _Ú × � � ç " ÍÎ

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:41/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

ØÙ ÚÛ ÜÝ Þ ßàØÙ ÚÛ ÜÝ Þ ßàØÙ ÚÛ ÜÝ Þ ßàØÙ ÚÛ ÜÝ Þ ßà áâ ãäáâ ãäáâ ãäáâ ãä

(

6 � � �Ë � ù æ � å u

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1

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2.

< / Û � Pë ì ý l " ã � � � íî Í Î

(e.g., PP

+ ì

/

� ïð ºñ t)

3.

� ] ] ñ õ � ö N �{ ò çó ê

disable * ôõ ö÷ * - . � O/

Ò � � Ocæ D ø

4.

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integrity

T L ò çó ê � ´ ç{ ù P ù æ c cú Ì5.

ýd �

detection(

)* + X

)

P

protection(

û[ ü

)

o " � M c °± � áû � Pý Ä þ ÿ

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. 6 � Pô Þ * 6 � P� Þ * 6 � Pô Y Þ æ T �)

6.

6 � Ö -É * � Ö� Ë ´ ç

=>

e¯ I à �� � `© Á(

� L \ � T S & � L 7 ä T S

)� �s ��

(

á 6 ¬�

/

� � ¹

)

7.

+ � s� ± � ÐÚ � á �2

(

� È

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8.

ß= $% Ò ½Ë 6 Oã * # � m � * P� � Õ � � �

(

�2 ô ^²

VS

6 � ^ I ¿ �ô õ

)

9.

s . r á± � � � Ü � � ü � Øl õ �(Peter F. Drucker:

� � Ü � H �� õ � c

Sexy..)

g ¨h i M ¦ j� ¦ �¤ L¤ N K � �

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:42/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

�� � �Ò �

Source:

¬­ ®

/

!" #$% &' ()* +$ %

g ¨h i M ¦ j� ¦ �¤ L¤ N K �

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:43/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

�� � �1 , j - y yU L ¹ º P ðñ � � � ABC

# . � ë � P ³` ¬Á f

Plan View

Office Building

Factory

Building

Utility Building

Warehouse

Side View

Basement Parking

1F Utility/Facility

2F Fab/Warehouse

3F Office

RF Cooling Tower

Basement Parking Utility

1F Clean Room

Office

Cooling Tower/Scrubber

Warehouse

3F Clean Room Utility

Office

Office/Restaurant

AB

C

g ¨h i M ¦ j� ¦ �¤ L¤ N K �" ã

A>B>C but

�ã / Pô õ

A<B<C

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:44/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

�� � �0 ¨0 ^ y y

ABC 1' Y " ã * 2Ë 34 * p Þ [ º P " Þ 5 ë `# . . Á Q 6Þ fU L ¹ º P ðñ � � � ABC

# . � ë � P ³` ¬Á f

A PP/PVC

� 7

B FRP

� 7 C SUS

� 7

g ¨h i M ¦ j� ¦ �¤ L¤ N K �

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:45/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

8� � �» :9 :

…Integrity

_ ö � 6 L M 6 N � TU � � ; � � �

ë < ý 1 � Ò � ú Ì �= �Source:http://www.chemtron.net/system.htm

g ¨h i M ¦ j� ¦ �¤ L¤ N K �

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:46/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

8� � �

Detection/Protection/Interlock Integrity

_ ö � 6 L M 6 N � TU � � ; � � �å ã � á > � P Þ � ý 1 � U L � � � ÑS Xô ³? @ 2

(

Ý �A 1 � � ö ^..)

g ¨h i M ¦ j� ¦ �¤ L¤ N K �

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:47/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

8� � �

Management N BC é

/

Xá À

/

á � � 6 L M 6 N � ñ ò ; � � D

EE EE FF FF

ô õ + � � r C© Áª« - . áÊ þ C

« 6 Q RGH þ C

« - . áô þ C

« N � . CDI N � - CD

g ¨h i M ¦ j� ¦ �¤ L¤ N K �

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:48/60

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1 2 34 JJ JJ

[ \s Ï EF B d ;<=

}[ 6 7 ab �KL æ²

( M BCP/BCM)

åÁ d �# ) ab �ô õð ½²

�ô õã ä * é êë � + â

] ð{ 0 P{N �O �

• Detection

P

Protection

� P Þ

6 7 K= * ß= * ç ë * �{ P S ä Ò � QJ ¹ � Pr C Ú }

ö N ÑÒ Í ø¯ c� ÷ ¯ c å f

@ ABC _ W o RÄ

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� �ã ä� �)

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Ê Ë 6 L � X ÿ ¯ © Á•

XrY ô

g ¨h i M ¦ j� ¦ �¤ L¤ N K �

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:49/60

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1 2 34 JJ JJ

PDSA

_

lessons learned•

Sê ¯Z F � Ùÿ � � �[\

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PDSA � 6 ¯

PDCA Â

å f Y� ¯

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idea

Pã à 6

work(

� � o "© Á� ab � a O õ � c u

variance)

6 ¯ ø

check

P

highlight

f á W b -c � f(

6 ¯ � �d e � á � ¯ � � f ád e � ab)

g ¨h i M ¦ j� ¦ �¤ L¤ N K �

f W �� � Sê �L � Â Ë f g f á �L �f g

(

hi á â

)

� fj J fk Y�

! . � - .[ \ ]

/

I à� X _ �

fl m � ^ 6 � ^ �ô õ � nd ô õ o æ²

� ± ç S á pq � {rs tuv

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:50/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

1 2 34 JJ JJ

Management of Change and Integrity� �� * Ý �2 ô ^² �

(

c � 6 Q R + 6 + Þ � T eT S X ÿ Q R � 6 �û)

g ¨h i M ¦ j� ¦ �¤ L¤ N K �

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:51/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

1 2 34

Contingency Plan and Drill“

V

/w ´ ç � e

(

á

/

Û Ü

/know how)

P

Ê

x � ù Ù

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)

¯V r C Ú }© Á PN Bô ð � {| }

g ¨h i M ¦ j� ¦ �¤ L¤ N K �

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:52/60

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1 2 34 JJ JJ

¦% }

-

pQ~ �

/Trade-Off9 W P 9J ô õ e J 6 ¬�9 W P 9J e ü M � � °±²

(

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)

min Risk= f ( Type

Error , Type �

Error)Type

Error

� _[ � ç " e �

I � - ø cH c � S� - . �� L Ùÿ

Type

Error

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I � ø c � 6H c � S a� d � e ü6 � ø �� P o 1\ � X ¯ � N �ô õ�

g ¨h i M ¦ j� ¦ �¤ L¤ N K �

�� ���� ���� ���� ��

(

ü � �

/

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ð � ü � � � o " ç, á â��

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/

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)•

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ü �ã� ú Ö ×� \ �o " ç, ú,

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/

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/

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)•

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(

l m/

� Ù� á)

�� ���� ���� ���� ��(

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/

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UVIR

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l m

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2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:53/60

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9 = _¿ À ½ d Ôæ Á �

…–

6 Âô Ã ½ Ù 3 & � Ö � � õ � Ä � W � W Ü M �/ ¸ �! �–

[ . � y õ PÊ à � y � � . � s Å ê S � O �² � PÆ Ç J S Ø I/–

ÿÈ ö Ù � � � ÉÊË ÿ T W Ì á K

(=

ÍÎ ÏÐ

)

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)

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N à(

Ùá 6 å Ðá)

á ¯ - . � àZ Zâ øô õ  � 6 � øã � � 6 � øã

-

- . è Ò ¹ � Â

– Risk Availability

o " á I àZ Zâ øô õ

[ � ô õ � ! Q � 5 n� åÁ d kDefining risk is thus the exercise in power

sä � Ã ½ P 6 � =å æç è é êæç è é êæç è é êæç è é êëë ëë ì íîï ð ñòì íîï ð ñòì íîï ð ñòì íîï ð ñò

g ¨h i M ¦ j� ¦ �¤ L¤ N K �

2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:54/60

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

1 2 : ´ 3µ

/

ó ~ � : ´ � ô� ´µ 3 � ¶· ¸

(

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ö÷ ?

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2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:56/60

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2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:58/60

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