Strategic Foresight, as used to inform the Third Strategic Programme of H2020

14 June 2016

www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1 © SAMI Consulting

Strategic Foresight

as used to inform the

Third Strategic Programme of

Horizon 2020

Martin Duckworth

SAMI Consulting

Horizon 2020 research programme

• Horizon 2020 is the biggest EU Research and Development programme ever

– €80 billion of funding over 7 years (2014–20)

– Currently in the second strategic programme cycle

• The third strategic programming cycle will cover the years 2018-20

– Preparation work has already begun “Reflective phase”

• This Strategic Foresight project supported the preparation for the third strategic programme

© SAMI Consulting www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2

Strategic Foresight project

• Objective: to develop a view of future change relevant to Horizon 2020 – Not intended to predict the future

– But to stimulate a discussion about the future

• Used established methods of Foresight – Derived from the academic field of futures studies

• 6 months (May – October 2015)

• Built on existing Foresight research projects

• Involved a large number of people – 80 subject experts and 40 contributors from the

Commission

• Addressed the full thematic scope of H2020 from four different perspectives


Phases

• Workshop 1:

Analysis of trends

• Workshop 2:

Scenarios

• Workshop 3:

Implications

Outputs

12 Drivers of future change

4 Scenarios of the

world in 2030

8 Issues and potential disruptors

for H2020


Summary of project stages

Workshop 1: Trends

• Based on published megatrends – from existing Foresight literature

• 4 different perspectives: – Innovation and competitiveness

– Sustainability

– Social change

– Radical opportunity spaces


12 Drivers of future change

• Globalisation

• Demographics

• Environment and biosphere

• Migration

• Urbanisation

• Climate change

• Inequality

• Limits to resources and energy

• Digital revolution

• Biotechnology and medical breakthroughs

• Jobs, skills and artificial intelligence

• Individual aspirations and empowerment


Workshop 2: Scenarios • Why use scenarios?

– Scenarios are stories about potential futures

– They are not predictions

– Useful tool to stimulate discussion, and explore future possibilities

• Based around two important uncertainties reflected in several of the drivers of change: – Is society centralised and elitist, or decentralised and

participative?

– Material growth or the circular economy?

• The critical uncertainties were social drivers – Technology drivers were seen as less uncertain,

and would appear in all scenarios


Social / ecological

circular economy

Material growth /

linear economy

Generating the scenarios

Exclusive / centralized/ elitist /

top down

Inclusive / decentralized / participative / bottom up

Social / ecological

circular economy

Material growth /

linear economy

Exclusive / centralized/ elitist /

top down

Inclusive / decentralized / participative / bottom up

Social / ecological

circular economy

Material growth /

linear economy

BIG BROTHER

ALL TRADING

BIG MOTHER

ALL CARING

Phases

• Workshop 1:

Analysis of trends

• Workshop 2:

Scenarios

• Workshop 3:

Implications

Outputs

12 Drivers of future change”

4 Scenarios of the

world in 2030

8 Issues and potential disruptors

for H2020


Workshop 3: Implications for H2020

8 Issues for innovation in Europe • Hyper-connectivity and Big Data driving

accelerated change and innovation

• Falling cost of energy as a huge game changer

• Migration and changing demographics: important changes for innovation in Europe

• Health as a major driver: a key concern in citizens’ aspirations and a shaper of attitudes to innovation

• Facing climate change, oceans and space as projects important for humanity as a whole

• Primary sector innovation: strategic and key for sustainability and well-being

• Biotechnology as the next wave of disrupting technologies

• A state of instability as the new norm in society © SAMI Consulting www.samiconsulting.co.uk 12

8 Issues for innovation in Europe • Hyper-connectivity and Big Data

• Falling cost of energy

• Migration and changing demographics:

• Health as a major driver:

• Facing climate change

• Primary sector innovation:

• Biotechnology

• A state of instability © SAMI Consulting www.samiconsulting.co.uk 13

Hyper-connectivity and Big Data

Hyper connectivity,

the Internet of Things

and Cognitive

Computing will

transform our lives at

a scale and a speed

we hardly imagine

today

Falling cost of energy

Solar and wind energy are becoming competitive with fossil fuels – even at current low prices

A drastic reduction in energy prices and environmental costs will bring a myriad of changes.

Health as a major driver

Progress in medical science brings opportunities to revolutionise health care (prevention, diagnosis and treatment).

Individuals and populations are becoming more demanding of science and of health economics and policy.

Biotechnology

Biotechnology, accelerated by developments such as gene editing, will be transformative. – Lengthen human lifespan

and improve health.

– Also industrial processes, biofuels, agriculture and animal breeding. It will transform the food chain.

– Will affect Europe through European practice, as well as through its adoption in other parts of the world.

Impact on H2020 programme

• Invitations to present reports to – five H2020 Advisory Groups (selected experts in their

fields) and

– two H2020 Programme Committees (officials of national organisations, appointed by and representing Member states).

• Cross-cutting elements from the project report have contributed to focus areas for the next call

• Foresight is becoming ever more important within each thematic domain of H2020

20/06/2016 18

Smart Innovation in Europe

• Big changes are coming in the world

• Huge opportunities for innovators – To create those changes,

– And to exploit them

– But constraints on which innovations might work

• The tools of Futures Methods can increase the chance of successful innovation – Analysis of trends (Drivers of future change)

– Views of possible futures (Scenarios)

– Visions of the future (Visioning)


Innovation =

Successful exploitation of new invention

Thank you Disclaimers

• Content reflects the views only of the author

• The project was funded by the European Commission, but does not necessarily represent the views of the Commission

Credits

• Editors: Gill Ringland, Joe Ravetz, David Lye, Martin Duckworth

• Graphic images by Joe Ravetz

• Thanks due to: Nathalie Vercruysse, Nikolaos Kastrinos, European Commission

Publication details

• “Strategic foresight - Towards the third strategic programme of Horizon 2020”.

• http://bookshop.europa.eu/en/strategic-foresight-pbKI0215938/

• Appendices 1, 2, 3: Workshop reports with detailed outputs

Contact

• Martin Duckworth, SAMI Consulting Ltd. [email protected]

20

http://bookshop.europa.eu/en/strategic-foresight-pbKI0215938/





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Strategic Foresight, as used to inform the Third Strategic Programme of H2020