Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Hazard Across the Globe

Graeme WEATHERILLMarco PAGANI10th US National Conference on Earthquake Engineering

Hazard Modelling: A Global Perspective

• OpenQuake for multiple scales: site-specific, regional and global.

• Hazard Modeller’s Toolkit & OpenQuake Ground Motion Toolkit

• OpenQuake-(Hazard)Engine: Application

– Site-Specific Analysis

– Application in National and Regional Seismic Hazard Models

– Global Scale PSHA

OpenQuake-engine: A Seismic Hazard Tool for Many Scales

OpenQuakeFeature

Site-Specific Regional Global

Classical PSHA(Cornell-McGuire Approach) ✔ ✔ ✔Event-Based PSHA ✔ ✔ ✔Disaggregation ✔ ✔Scenario ✔

OpenQuake-engine

From Datasets to Models: GEM’s Modelling Tools

• GEM Hazard Modeller’s Toolkit (hmtk)

• Currently: different software languages, different I/O formats, different data requirements.

• Reproducibility? Global consistency and quality control? (Lees, 2012)

• Convenience and compatibility with the GEM Hazard Engine

SeismogenicSource Model

SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS

ANALYSIS TOOLS• Seismicity - Harmonising and processing

earthquake catalogues• Geological - Faults sources and activity rates

calculated from geological data• Geodetic – Activity rates from geodetic strain

• Descriptive Statistics• Declustering• Completeness• Recurrence• (Statistical Mmax)

HMTK: From earthquake catalogues to recurrence models

HMTK: From Fault Geology to Seismogenic Fault Sources

Tools to characteriseearthquake recurrence from fault geology

Can incorporate epistemic uncertainty in fault source models

HMTK: From Geodetic Strain to Seismic Activity Rate

Creates activity rate models based on geodetic strain – using the approach of Bird & Liu (2007)

Tools for PSHA Input Model Preparation

OpenQuake Ground Motion Toolkit

• Primary Objective: A Combined Model/Data driven tool to help with selection and weighting of GMPEs for use in PSHA

• Takes as a dependency OpenQuake hazardlib – ensures the GMPE implementations are those of OpenQuake

• Incorporates flexible and comprehensive architecture for storing databases of ground motion records

• Partly developed in the context of the SARA WP6 project

OpenQuake Ground Motion Tools: GMPE Comparison (Trellis Plotting)

OpenQuake Ground Motion Tools: Observation to Model Comparison – GMPE Selection for Site-Specific/Regional Models

Includes:• Log-Likelihood (Scherbaum

et al. , 2009)• Euclidean Distance-Based

Ranking (Kale & Akker, 2013)

Random effects residuals

Site-Specific Application: Single Station Analysis

Site-Specific Application: Thyspunt Nuclear Power Plant

OpenQuake used as independent comparison with FRISK88

GEM Database of Regional & National Models

SHARE

EMME

EMCA

NIED

SARA – Expected 2015

ResisII/Geoter/Garcia et al. (2003)

Comparison Against Original Implementations

Comparison Against Original Implementations

Comparison Against Original Implementations

Hazard (and Risk) Modelling at the Global Scale

• Extended Global Earthquake Catalogue

– More than 500000 events (1900 – 2012)

– Combines ISC-GEM, Engdahl Bulletin, GCMT, ISC Reviewed Bulletin

Hazard (and Risk) Modelling at the Global Scale

• Extended Global Earthquake Catalogue

– More than 500000 events (1900 – 2012)

– Combines ISC-GEM, Engdahl Bulletin, GCMT, ISC Reviewed Bulletin

• Depth-dependent smoothed seismicity algorithms

Hazard (and Risk) Modelling at the Global Scale

• Extended Global Earthquake Catalogue

– More than 500000 events (1900 – 2012)

– Combines ISC-GEM, Engdahl Bulletin, GCMT, ISC Reviewed Bulletin

• Depth-dependent smoothed seismicity algorithms

• Global Smoothed Focal Mechanism Model – based on Kagan & Jackson (2014)

Hazard (and Risk) Modelling at the Global Scale

Activity rates for multiple depth layers using a smoothed seismicity approach – including focal mechanism and hypocentral depth distributions

Future developments can incorporate geodetic strain for constraint of long-term activity rates

Combined with the recommendations of the GEM Global GMPE component (Stewart et al., 2014), can produce models of “globally uniform” hazard

Segue to Vitor’s ppt

Moving to risk …

Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to -www.globalearthquakemodel.org