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August 2011 Inflation Watch
An Eye on PricesAugust 19, 2011
Next Release: September 16, 2011
Inflation Watch
• Inflation (price-level growth) is important for REALTORS® because it can lead to shifts in interest rate policy by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
• Generally, the FOMC lowers interest rates to stimulate the economy. However, rates that are too low may lead to inflation. To combat inflation, the central bank increases interest rates but this policy may dampen economic growth.
• For example, recently, the FOMC committed to keeping rates low through 2013 to help shore up economic activity, but this commitment comes with its own set of risks.
Inflation Watch
• During the recent financial crisis, fears of deflation (price-level decline) were rampant. (Deflation caused a downward spiral of prices that destroyed the economy in the Great Depression.)
• With financial markets somewhat stable, some fear that inflation is around the corner. Stagflation, another unpleasant economic condition characterized by high unemployment and high inflation, is also a possibility.
• In stagflation, it is difficult for the central bank to raise interest rates to combat inflation due fear of further job market deterioration if demand is hurt by the increased interest rates.
August 2011 Highlights
• Price change from July to August generally picked up, and year over year inflation continues to run high due to previous increases.
• One bright spot was in crude materials where prices declined, though increases earlier in the year mean that year over year inflation is still high. Among consumer goods, only household furnishing and computers and peripheral equipment have price declines.
• While core (those excluding food and energy) and headline consumer prices are within the bounds of the target range: 1 to 2 and 2 to 4 percent respectively, other consumer prices are advancing at a considerable rate. Necessities such as transportation, food at home, and hospital costs are areas of concern; the prices of lodging away from home and apparel also grew at a rate higher than usual this month.
Indicator Source and definitionMonthly Change
Annual Change
Concern ?
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
BLS, Price change of consumer goods and services
0.5% 3.6% Maybe
CPI Core BLS, CPI less food and energy 0.2% 1.8% NoCPI Housing (owners’ equivalent rent)
BLS, CPI housing component (primary residence)
0.3% 1.2% Maybe
Producer Price Index (PPI)
BLS, Price changes domestic producers receive for their output
0.2% 7.2% Maybe
PPI Core BLS, PPI less food and energy 0.4% 2.5% NoPPI Crude Materials BLS, PPI crude / raw materials -1.2% 22.6% YesPPI Residential Construction
BLS, PPI BRES 0.3% 7.3% Maybe
Gold WSJ, Price per ounce of gold 2.8% 31.8% YesWest Texas Crude Oil WSJ, Price per barrel of oil 0.9% 27.3% Yes
Import PricesBLS, Trade-weighted index measures prices of imported goods & services
0.3% 14.0% Yes
Construction Cost Index
Census, constant quality, new single family homes under construction
-0.3% 1.0% No
Consumer and Producer Price Change Overview
IndicatorChange from
previous monthChange from previous year
Concern?
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 0.5% 3.6% YesLodging away from home 0.9% 4.7% YesFood at home 0.6% 5.4% YesMeats, poultry, fish and eggs 0.5% 7.4% YesHousing fuels and utilities 0.2% 3.2% MaybeHousehold furnishings & operations
0.0% -0.2% No
Transportation 1.5% 12.0% YesMedical care 0.2% 3.2% MaybeHospital and related services 0.4% 6.2% YesEducation 0.7% 4.0% YesAirline fare 0.1% 7.6% NoPersonal Computers and peripheral equipment
-0.5% -9.4% No
Apparel 1.2% 3.1% Maybe
Looking at the CPI in More Depth
CPI-U: All Items Less Food and Energy% Change - Year to Year SA, 1982-84=100
CPI-U: All Items% Change - Year to Year SA, 1982-84=100
1110090807Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 08/19/11
6
4
2
0
-2
CPI-U: Owners' Equivalent Rent/Primary Residence
% Change - Year to Year SA, Dec-82=100
11100908070605040302Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 08/19/11
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
PPI: Finished Goods% Change - Year to Year SA, 1982=100
PPI: Finished Goods less Food and Energy% Change - Year to Year SA, 1982=100
1110090807Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 08/19/11
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
Cash Price: Gold Bullion, London Commodity Price, PM Fix
US$/troy Oz
1110090807Source: Wall Street Journal 08/19/11
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
Domestic Spot Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate
$/Barrel
11100908070605040302Source: Wall Street Journal 08/19/11
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
Import Price Index: All Imports
NSA, 2000=100
111009080706050403020108/19/11
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
Houses under Construction: Fixed-Weighted Price IndexNSA, 2005=100
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States$
11100908070605040302Sources: Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors 08/19/11
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
240000
220000
200000
180000
160000
140000