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Waller I.S.D.Demographic Update

May 7, 2015

Population & Survey Analysts

W.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment TrendsHousing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdProjected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning

4,750

5,250

5,750

6,250

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

3.29%1.83%

3.06%0.81%3.5%

1.75%1.24%0.52%2.35%

5.77%

Past Growth RatesE

nrol

lmen

t

Square Milesin

Waller I.S.D.

Total Enrollment(Pre-PEIMS)

4th Week Survey,2010-11

Percent Changein StudentEnrollment

Fall 2013to

Fall 2014

(pre-PEIMS enrollment estimates)

Total Enrollment(Pre-PEIMS)

4th Week Survey,2010-11

Percent Changein StudentEnrollment

Fall 2009to

Fall 2014

(pre-PEIMS enrollment estimates)

Kindergarten Enrollmentvs. Births

Unique Demographic Characteristics Waller I.S.D.

• Fairly low KN proportion out of total enrollment – 7.8% in Fall, 2014 (was a higher proportion in last two school years)

• Commute time to work: 35.5 minutes for Waller I.S.D. relative to 29.1 for Houston Metro Area – and 31.9 for Cy-Fair I.S.D.

• Economically Disadvantaged population (64.2%) – [relative to 59.8% for State] – W.I.S.D. will change dramatically in 5 years

• High STAAR passage rate (77.8%) --- based on PASA’s assessment for grades 3-8 Level II & III (Spring 2014) – [relative to 71.8% for State]

• Education of adults ages 25+ -- 16% have bachelor’s degree (relative to 31% in Houston Metro Area & 38% in Cy-Fair I.S.D.)

• High median income level ($61,223) – [relative to $57,366 in Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Metro Area]

Private Schools

Current Enrollment

From WISD in KN+

Enrollment in 5 yrs.

From WISD in KN+

Epiphany Lutheran School toddler-8th 185 0 300 0My Private School (formerly Mackel Private School) PK-3rd 58 0 65 0

Waller Christian Academy PK3-8th 45 26 250 142

Total 26 142

0.45% 2.11%

Current Enrollment Projected Enrollment in 5 Years

Grades

% of WISD residents in private schools:

W.I.S.D. Demographic TrendsEmployment TrendsHousing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdProjected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning


Top Employers Within Waller I.S.D.

Prairie View A&M University 1,426Waller ISD Public Schools 600Buc-ees Travel Center ~150Cameron Surface Systems Subsidiary of Cameron 65Ravago Recycled plastic products 65Flochem Pipeline additives products 65Harlan's Grocery Retail grocery 55Green Span Profiles Insulated roof/wall panels for metal buildings 50Engines, Compressor, & Accessories Large mounted compressors 45PetroQuip Machine shop 42Picco Coatings Manufacturing ~40RP Tools Machine shop ~40City of Waller Municipal government 30Alpha Foods Co Frozen foods processor and packager 30Premium Coil Oil and gas supplies ~30Florida Chemicals Blends industrial cleaning supplies 24Whitestar Chemicals Drilling pumps 14LQC Pipe Pipe yard ~12

Company Service/Product Employees

Annual Employment Trends

December June December 6‐Month Annual2013 2014 2014 Pct. Change Pct. Change

City of HoustonEmployment 991,811 1,008,388 1,027,955 1.94% 3.64%Unemployment Rate 5.5 5.5 4.1Harris CountyEmployment 2,028,591 2,062,498 2,102,517 1.94% 3.64%Unemployment Rate 5.5 5.4 4.1Waller CountyEmployment 19,516 19,842 20,227 1.94% 3.64%Unemployment Rate 5.1 5.7 3.8

Waller’s biggest employer, Prairie View A&M, has ~1,055 full‐time equivalent faculty and 371 FTE’s who are instructors/research/staff – and has added University View Campus apartments plus future retail

Apart from public sector, major new manufacturing firms, plus existing firms have additions and renovations underway (the latter totally over $20,000,000) –

1. Daikin’s new A.C. manufacturing plant with a central structure of 4 million sq. ft. on 90 ac.

2. Alegacy Development owns 84.8 ac. for a new CNG compressed natural gas facility ‐‐ and possibly leasing out other spaces – S. on US 290

3. Tractor Supply Co. – turned in plans for new retail center off FM 29204. PPI Mechanical Testing Services is adding infrastructure on Stokes Rd.5. Leasing company has taken over Bettis Park to sublet space – S. of Bus. 2906. Cameron International is also adding space ‐‐ S. of Bus. 2907. Picco coatings is also expanding its plant on Stokes Rd.

Waller I.S.D. Employment TrendsEmployment Growth and Critical Employment Centers Both Act

as Local Population Growth Stimuli



Waller I.S.D. has had a challenge in travel times from home to work (at 35.5 minutes one‐way), but the Grand Parkway and the newly greatly widened US 290 will allow for quicker access, incl. the planned Bauer to FM 2920 widening to 6 lanes;

The Grand Parkway , Sec’s F‐1, F‐2, and G ‐‐ to be completed by early 2017 (and some feeder roads completed earlier) – places W.I.S.D. on the cusp of accelerated residential and commercial growth throughout the eastern sector of the District;

Prairie Parkway – may have the private funding in place but needs TexDOT funding for studies, etc. – will have north/south orientation traversing between Penick and Blinka and then northward overlapping Muse Pkwy and Fluminger and westward to FM 1736 near SH 6

Waller I.S.D. Future Transportation TrendsTransportation and Other Infrastructure Improvements

Act as Local Economic Development Stimuli

Waller I.S.D. has had a challenge in travel times from home to work (at 35.5 minutes one‐way), but the Grand Parkway and the newly greatly widened US 290 will allow for quicker access, incl. the planned Bauer to FM 2920 widening to 6 lanes;

The Grand Parkway , Sec’s F‐1, F‐2, and G ‐‐ to be completed by early 2017 (and some feeder roads completed earlier) – places W.I.S.D. on the cusp of accelerated residential and commercial growth throughout the eastern sector of the District;

Prairie Parkway – may have the private funding in place but needs TexDOT funding for studies, etc. – will have north/south orientation traversing between Penick and Blinka and then northward overlapping Muse Pkwy and Fluminger and westward to FM 1736 near SH 6

Waller I.S.D. Future Transportation TrendsTransportation and Other Infrastructure Improvements

Act as Local Economic Development Stimuli

Municipalities in Waller

I.S.D.

Utility Districts

inWaller I.S.D.(per Waller CAD, Public

Utilities Commission, and City of Houston)

Ownership Changes

April 2013 through

Oct 2014

Parcels>10 ac.For Sale

Nov 2014

Septic Permits by

Planning Unit

Jan 2013 though

Dec 2014

# %

Apartments 128 146 18 14% 6%MHP 412 423 13 3% 5%Subdivisions - built-out 2,257 2,300 43 2% 15%Subdivisions - actively building 1,583 1,797 214 14% 74%

Percent of Growth

Added Students 2013 to 2014

Resident Students in 2014

Resident Students in 2013

Student Growth by Type of Housing

Highest Growth Single-Family Developments

16 Bridgeland (excl. mixed use & MF) 134 1,520 1,6542C Woodhaven Estates - up to 4,000 lots 178 695 87316 Stone Creek Ranch 373 440 813

15B, 15C JM Texas Land Fund - 1,600 ac. 138 649 78715B, 15C Lindsey Story parcels 138 658 796

10B Bauer Rd. Tract (KOWA Dev.) 598 ac. 269 20 2897G Bauer Landing - 900-950 lots-LGI Homes 247 373 6208B Franz, McAlister, Burmaster tracts 155 384 53916 Richfield Ranch 20 355 3756E Delta Troy Interests 13 185 1982C Mill Creek Ltd. 22 174 1969 Gulf Coast Land Trust 14 145 159

15C Gold Star Realty 21 113 13415B Wallers, Freeman, Hillcroft MediStar

parcels - by Parkway 7 124 131

1,729 5,835 7,5642,651 8,291 10,942

Planning Units

Subdivision Names or Owner(s) Names:

Total Single-Family Housing Projected :Total (Above-Listed Developments):

2014-2024

2019-2024

2014-2019

Highest Growth Multi-Family Developments

15C Parcels S. Hwy 290 and Betka Rd. 120 240 36010B Fridkin, Giro, Shamrock Realty parcels 70 200 2708B Titan Land Dev., Hockley, Martin parcels 20 220 2402C Woodhaven Estates Parcels 0 340 3406D Terpstra parcels 70 200 2707C Hegar parcels 0 240 240

280 1,440 1,720450 2,090 2,540

Planning Units

Multi-Family Development Name or Parcel Name:

Total Multi-Family Housing Projected :Total (Above-Listed Developments):

2014-2024

2019-2024

2014-2019

Projected New Housing Occupancies

January 2015 to

October 2019

Projected New Housing Occupancies

October 2019to

October 2024

Projected New Housing Occupancies 2015 –2024

Year Ending in October:

Single Family

Multi-Family

Total New Housing

Units

2015 251 0 2512016 343 3 3462017 474 73 5472018 632 153 7852019 951 221 1,1722020 1,173 350 1,5232021 1,454 435 1,8892022 1,747 435 2,1822023 1,922 435 2,3572024 1,995 435 2,430

2015-2019 2,651 450 3,1012019-2024 8,291 2,090 10,3812015-2024 10,942 2,540 13,482



Ratios of Studentsper Household

2013 2014

Single‐Family Homes 0.49 0.52

Apartments 0.41 0.49



Moderate Growth Scenario

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Enrollment 6,575 6,919 7,279 7,733 8,323 8,983 9,730 10,507 11,296 12,164

% Growth 5.20 5.23 5.20 6.24 7.63 7.93 8.31 7.99 7.50 7.69

Growth 325 344 360 454 590 660 747 778 788 868

Projected Enrollment at PEIMS Snapshot

Three Scenarios of GrowthE

nrol

lmen

t ModerateGrowth

2019 –8,3232024 – 12,164

High Growth2019 – 8,5772024 – 13,338

Low Growth2019 – 7,9132024 – 11,097

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

2010 2014 2019 2024

Stud

ents



Current 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Fields Store (Capacity = 700)

Students 725 734 763 793 816 854 903 961 1,027 1,094 1,167% Utilization 104% 105% 109% 113% 117% 122% 129% 137% 147% 156% 167%

Holleman (Capacity = 766)Students 667 700 719 729 740 758 780 811 846 889 942

% Utilization 87% 91% 94% 95% 97% 99% 102% 106% 110% 116% 123%Jones (Capacity = 305)

Students 395 408 401 414 421 431 440 449 460 468 478% Utilization 130% 134% 131% 136% 138% 141% 144% 147% 151% 153% 157%

Roberts Road (Capacity = 584)Students 610 656 723 789 836 916 1,014 1,115 1,230 1,354 1,484

% Utilization 104% 112% 124% 135% 143% 157% 174% 191% 211% 232% 254%Turlington (Capacity = 800)

Students 756 804 844 902 941 996 1,056 1,124 1,197 1,275 1,354% Utilization 95% 101% 106% 113% 118% 125% 132% 141% 150% 159% 169%

Projected Resident Elementary Students

Projected Resident EE-5th

Grade Students

2014-15 Elementary Attendance

Zones(Geo-Coded KN-5th for Schools S of FM 1960)


Grade Students

Open Elementary #6

in 2017-18(Geo-

Coded KN-5th for Schools S of FM 1960)


Grade Students

Open Elementary #7

in 2020-21(Geo-

Coded KN-5th for Schools S of FM 1960)

Current 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Schultz JH (Capacity = 900)

Students 687 717 760 843 938 1,041 1,130 1,188 1,250 1,334 1,427% Utilization 76% 80% 84% 94% 104% 116% 126% 132% 139% 148% 159%

Waller JH (Capacity = 900)Students 698 704 760 835 940 1,047 1,142 1,199 1,271 1,365 1,476

% Utilization 78% 78% 84% 93% 104% 116% 127% 133% 141% 152% 164%

Projected Resident Junior High Students

Projected Resident 6th-8th

Grade Students

2014-15Junior High Attendance

Zones KN-5th for Schools S of

FM 1960)

Projected Resident 6th-8th

Grade Students

OpenJunior High #3

in2020-21K

N-5th for Schools S of FM 1960)

Current 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Waller High School (Capacity = 2,200)

Students 1,703 1,846 1,944 1,970 2,101 2,284 2,517 2,885 3,225 3,516 3,833% Utilization 77% 84% 88% 90% 96% 104% 114% 131% 147% 160% 174%

Projected High School Students

3 master‐planned communities will be well underway in 2 years (Bauer Landing – already underway – and Woodhaven and KOWA Development;

3 more MPC’s will be under construction in 6‐7 years – JM Texas Land Fund’s 1,600 ac. S. of US 290; Bridgeland; and the FM 2920 Hopfe Cypress/Franz tracts N. on the Grand Pkwy.

Next to job stability and job growth, the second major factor predicting housing and population acceleration in a school district is the construction of transportation arterials – such as: US 290’s widening , & the Grand Parkway (f‐1, F‐2 & G) & the Prairie Parkway;

The demographic composition of the W.I.S.D. student population will change if a large no. of new students ‐‐ in new subdivisions ‐‐become part of the School District; for example, 3 new master‐planned communities can change the socioeconomic characteristics of a smaller school district, such as Waller, reducing significantly the free/reduced lunch student population & other characteristics.

Waller I.S.D. Key Demographic Facts

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Elem #6

Elem #7JH #3

Jones Replacement?

HS #2

Long Range Facilities Planning Timeline

Ideally, FOUR elementary sites needed as the first four critical Master Planned Communities begin construction and have infrastructure in place.

Waller I.S.D.Demographic Update

May 7, 2015

Real Estate

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