The CommuniTy ServiCe SoCieTy’S FaST analySiS oF The 2014 new york CiTy houSing and vaCanCy SurveyTom Waters, Housing Policy Analyst

June 2015 www.cssny.org

Background

On June 2, 2015, the U.S. Census Bureau released detailed data from the 2014 version of its New York City Housing and Vacancy Survey, a survey of 18,000 New Yorkers conducted every three years under contract with the New York City Department of Housing Preservation and Development. CSS has conducted a preliminary analysis of the results to shed light on the important housing issues facing the New York state legislature this year, including the renewal of rent control, rent stabilization, and the 421-a development tax subsidy.

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rents are rising rapidly, especially in the city’s inner-ring neighBorhoods

In order to sensitively assess the changing state of the housing market in different neighborhoods, CSS focused on the rents being paid by tenants who have recently moved. This eliminates the tendency of lower rents paid by long-time tenants to smooth out market changes and mask the changes that affect tenants who are looking for a place to live. This analysis shows large changes in most of the city – rents rose by 32 percent citywide since 2002, even after removing the effect of inflation.

The sharpest increases occurred in neighborhoods surrounding the traditionally high-rent area of Manhattan below Harlem. Central Harlem led the way with a shocking 90 percent increase, with Bedford-Stuyvesant second at 63 percent.

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Up to 15 percent increase

No increase

15 to 30 percent increase

30 to 45 percent increase

More than 45 percent increase

change in inflation-adjusted rent recent movers from 2002 to 2014

55%34%

37%

32%

36%

34%90%

63%

52%

59%

54%

32%

40%33%

42% 35%

41%

apartments affordable to low-income households

in 2002

apartments affordable to low-income households

in 2011

apartments affordable to low-income households

in 2014change from 2002 to 2011

Bronx 238,100 149,100 135,775 -43% (102,325)

Brooklyn 339,500 214,800 196,295 -42% (143,205)

Manhattan 230,800 140,900 127,582 -45% (103,218)

Queens 158,700 86,800 73,057 -54% (85,643)

Staten Island 27,900 18,100 22,337 -20% (5,563)

total 995,000 609,700 555,046 -44% (439,954)

there is a dwindling supply of affordaBle housing for low-income people

The loss of rent-regulated housing to vacancy deregulation is combining with the loss of subsidized housing and with rising rents overall to dramatically shrink the city’s supply of housing affordable to low-income households with incomes below twice the federal poverty threshold.

Using the standard affordability threshold defined as 30 percent of household income.

20142014

20142014

2011

2011

2011

2011

2002

2002

2002

2002

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Bronx Brooklyn Manhattan Queens Staten Island

apartments affordable to low-income households

rent increases are outstripping incomes, leading to worsening rent Burdens

Rents in New York City continue to rise faster than incomes. For low-income households, the result is an ever-larger share of income being devoted to rent. Rent burdens are lower for rent-regulated low-income tenants than for unregulated ones, but the gap appeared to narrow from 2011 to 2014.

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rising median rent burdens for low-income tenants

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

2011 2014

Rising median rent burdens for low-income tenants

Unregulated poor Regulated poor

Unregulated low-income Regulated low-income

who lives in rent-regulated housing?

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median income poor near-poor middle-incomenumber of low-income people

Rent-regulated tenant $45,000 15% 22% 28% 901,500

Unregulated tenant $61,000 12% 18% 27% 666,000

Subsidized* tenant $16,900 48% 30% 16% 663,300

Owner $80,000 6% 14% 25% 502,100

all new york city $52,600 15% 19% 25% 2,740,900

white Black latino asianimmigrant-headed household

Rent-regulated tenant 38% 21% 30% 10% 50%

Unregulated tenant 44% 18% 22% 15% 47%

Subsidized* tenant 14% 36% 44% 5% 37%

Owner 53% 19% 12% 15% 45%

all new york city 41% 21% 24% 12% 46%

Rent-regulated housing remains the most important resource for low-income New Yorkers with household incomes less than twice the federal poverty threshold.

*Including NYCHA, all HUD project-based subsidies, Mitchell-Lama, and Section 8 vouchers

who lives in rent-regulated housing?

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10 to 20 percent

Up to 10 percent

20 to 40 percent

40 to 60 percent

More than 60 percent

rent regulated

new yorkers at all income levels support stronger rent laws

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Total

Unsubsidized renter

Low income

Low-incomeunsubsidized renter

Moderate/Higher income

Rent controlled or rent stabilized renter

Low-income rent controlled or rent

stabilized

oppose favor

20%20% 0%40% 40% 60% 80% 100%

11%

6%

8%

9%

74%

84%

66%

17%

12%

21%

84%

88%

90%

89%

60%

71%

51%

4% 73%

79%

81%

80%

4%

3%

3%

Oppose strongly

Oppose not so strongly

Favor strongly

Favor not so strongly

10%

6%

12%

Three-quarters of New Yorkers believe the state should create stronger protections for tenants in rent stabilized apartments, with support particularly high among low-income respondents. CSS conducts its own annual survey, The Unheard Third. This past year, we asked a random sample of New York City residents the following: “Now I’m going to read you about a series of steps the state could take to help more low-income New Yorkers reach the middle class. Please tell me if you favor or oppose each idea, or if you are unsure: Create stronger protections for tenants in rent stabilized apartments.”

Source: The Unheard Third 2014, cited in forthcoming report “Stuck.”