View
343
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
The stringent lending practices of the banks are exacerbating the recession as evidenced by the precipitous decline in BPP and the consequent decline in BC.Developers complain that they cannot get funding, building work in progress cannot be completed, mortgage advances to Flats and Townhouse developments have declined by some 65%, and mortgages for undeveloped land has plummeted by some 75%. All of these actions clearly signal that the banks have judged property as a poor investment.A consensus industry view is that conditions in the industry will only improve once the Banks demonstrated confidence in property as a preferred investment and relaxed their stringent lending criteria .
Citation preview
1 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU
TowardsMaking sense of the Building Industry:
The Role of the Banks and the Strategic Response of the Building Industry.
Dr. Llewellyn B. LewisDr. Llewellyn B. LewisMarch 2011March 2011
THE STRATEGIC FORUMTHE STRATEGIC FORUM
A place of assembly for strategic conversations
BMI
Studium Ad Prosperandum
Voluntas in Conveniendum
BUILDING RESEARCHSTRATEGY CONSULTINGUNIT cc
Reg. No. 2002/105109/23
•BMI
Studium Ad Prosperandum
Voluntas in Conveniendum
BUILDING RESEARCHSTRATEGY CONSULTINGUNIT cc
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
Studium Ad Prosperandum
Voluntas in Conveniendum
BUILDING RESEARCHSTRATEGY CONSULTINGUNIT cc
Reg. No. 2002/105109/23
•BMI
Studium Ad Prosperandum
Voluntas in Conveniendum
BUILDING RESEARCHSTRATEGY CONSULTINGUNIT cc
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•
2 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU
Paradigm
Re-invention
Scop
e o
f ch
an
ge a
nd
S
cop
e o
f ch
an
ge a
nd
tr
an
sfo
rmati
on
tran
sfo
rmati
on
Critical mass of Investors
(Whole community)
Single Investor (Part of community)
Paradigm
Pioneer
Early adopter
Paradigm shift
LateAdopter
Bandwagon Flocking
Herd behaviourImpact of Change and
transformation
All Countries
(Whole World)
Single
Country
(Part of World)
THE LOCAL PROPERTY THE LOCAL PROPERTY MARKETMARKET
LIMITS TO LIMITS TO GROWTHGROWTH
PARADIGMS PARADIGMS CHALLENGEDCHALLENGED
ALTERNATIVE ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTSINVESTMENTS
REINVENTIONREINVENTION A Structural A Structural
Change?Change? Self OrganisationSelf OrganisationOrder for Free!Order for Free!
Property a Property a preferred preferred
Investment!Investment!
REINVENTIONREINVENTION A Structural A Structural
Change?Change? Self OrganisationSelf OrganisationOrder for Free!Order for Free!
Property a Property a preferred preferred
Investment!Investment!
THE GLOBAL THE GLOBAL PROPERTY PROPERTY
ENVIRONMEENVIRONMENTNT
DEMISEDEMISE THE THE
PROPERTY PROPERTY BUBBLE?BUBBLE?
THETHEEDGE OF CHAOSEDGE OF CHAOS
CREATIVITYCREATIVITYINNOVATIONINNOVATION
The current and known world The future, unknown
THE PROPERTY MARKET AND COMPLEXITYTHE PROPERTY MARKET AND COMPLEXITY
3 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU
Paradigm
Re-invention
Scop
e o
f ch
an
ge a
nd
S
cop
e o
f ch
an
ge a
nd
tr
an
sfo
rmati
on
tran
sfo
rmati
on
Critical mass of Investors
(Whole community)
Single Investor (Part of community)
Paradigm
Pioneer
Early adopter
Paradigm shift
LateAdopter
Bandwagon Flocking
Herd behaviourImpact of Change and
transformation
All Countries
(Whole World)
Single
Country
(Part of World)
THE LOCAL PROPERTY THE LOCAL PROPERTY MARKETMARKET
LIMITS TO LIMITS TO GROWTHGROWTH
PARADIGMS PARADIGMS CHALLENGEDCHALLENGED
ALTERNATIVE ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTSINVESTMENTS
REINVENTIONREINVENTION A Structural A Structural
Change?Change? Self OrganisationSelf OrganisationOrder for Free!Order for Free!
Property a Property a preferred preferred
Investment!Investment!
REINVENTIONREINVENTION A Structural A Structural
Change?Change? Self OrganisationSelf OrganisationOrder for Free!Order for Free!
Property a Property a preferred preferred
Investment!Investment!
THE GLOBAL THE GLOBAL PROPERTY PROPERTY
ENVIRONMEENVIRONMENTNT
DEMISEDEMISE THE THE
PROPERTY PROPERTY BUBBLE?BUBBLE?
THETHEEDGE OF CHAOSEDGE OF CHAOS
CREATIVITYCREATIVITYINNOVATIONINNOVATION
The current and known world The future, unknown
THE PROPERTY MARKET AND COMPLEXITYTHE PROPERTY MARKET AND COMPLEXITY
Contagious
stories
4 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU
Paradigm
Re-invention
Scop
e o
f ch
an
ge a
nd
S
cop
e o
f ch
an
ge a
nd
tr
an
sfo
rmati
on
tran
sfo
rmati
on
Critical mass of Investors
(Whole community)
Single Investor (Part of community)
Paradigm
Pioneer
Early adopter
Paradigm shift
LateAdopter
Bandwagon Flocking
Herd behaviourImpact of Change and
transformation
All Countries
(Whole World)
Single
Country
(Part of World)
THE LOCAL PROPERTY THE LOCAL PROPERTY MARKETMARKET
LIMITS TO LIMITS TO GROWTHGROWTH
PARADIGMS PARADIGMS CHALLENGEDCHALLENGED
ALTERNATIVE ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTSINVESTMENTS
REINVENTIONREINVENTION A Structural A Structural
Change?Change? Self OrganisationSelf OrganisationOrder for Free!Order for Free!
Property a Property a preferred preferred
Investment!Investment!
REINVENTIONREINVENTION A Structural A Structural
Change?Change? Self OrganisationSelf OrganisationOrder for Free!Order for Free!
Property a Property a preferred preferred
Investment!Investment!
THE GLOBAL THE GLOBAL PROPERTY PROPERTY
ENVIRONMEENVIRONMENTNT
DEMISEDEMISE THE THE
PROPERTY PROPERTY BUBBLE?BUBBLE?
THETHEEDGE OF CHAOSEDGE OF CHAOS
CREATIVITYCREATIVITYINNOVATIONINNOVATION
The current and known world The future, unknown
THE PROPERTY MARKET AND COMPLEXITYTHE PROPERTY MARKET AND COMPLEXITY
Individual
BanksPublic
opinion
MinistryTreasury
IMFWorld Bank
Contagious
stories
5 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU
Total Mortgage Advances: 2002 - 2009The Strategic Forum Scenarios: 2010-2020(Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE, BMI-BRSCU Workings)
4570
22
2968
84
1948
56
2210
00
2850
00
3500
00
4350
00
4550
00
4500
00
4250
00
3850
00
3900
00
4050
00 4550
00
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
R M
illi
on
s (C
on
stan
t 20
09 V
alu
es)
High Road New York Scenario: 2010-2020
Higher Middle Road London Scenario: 2010-2020
Lower Middle Road Sao Paolo Scenario: 2010-2020
Low Road Harari Scenario: 2010-2020
Sao Paolo Scenario:2010-2020
Sao Paolo Scenariois Current
Most likely future Scenario
R305 Billion decline in
only 3 years!
It could take a decade to get
back to the 2006 level!
THE PROPERTY MARKET AND COMPLEXITYTHE PROPERTY MARKET AND COMPLEXITY
6 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU
The recovery will be gradual The Building Industry can Change fundamentally New consumption patterns will be less centred around houses and cars Home ownership under threat Rental preferred to ownership Housing Units will be smaller But could favour rental and new forms of living, eg Townhouses and High Rise Flats, walkable neighbourhoods More job mobility requiring flexibility Transition to the Knowledge Economy – could affect Industrial and Warehousing developments People working at home and desk sharing – affecting Office development Infrastructure Investment crucial in new forms of public transport, Traffic congestion and gridlock forcing new working and living models A radically altered and much denser economic landscape organized around megaregions New types of inner cities with people walking to work Spatial fix involves Integrated, Sustainable developments where people live work and play
THE PROPERTY MARKET AND COMPLEXITYTHE PROPERTY MARKET AND COMPLEXITY
7 © BMI-BRSCU
Low Low High HighPOWERPOWER
INTER
ES
T (
STA
KE)
INTER
ES
T (
STA
KE)
UN
AFEC
TED
U
NA
FEC
TED
S
TA
KEH
OLD
ER
SS
TA
KEH
OLD
ER
SLow
Low
Hig
h
Hig
h
PLAYERSPLAYERSDemand creatorsDemand creatorsFuture orientedFuture orientedProactiveProactiveInnovativeInnovativeEntrepreneurialEntrepreneurialRisk TakersRisk Takers
RESERVESRESERVESDemand RespondersDemand RespondersCurrent orientationCurrent orientationReactiveReactiveResponsiveResponsiveService orientedService orientedRisk ManagersRisk Managers
ONLOOKERSONLOOKERSDemand observersDemand observersPast orientationPast orientationPassivePassiveRisk AvoidersRisk Avoiders
REFEREESREFEREESDemand FacilitatorsDemand FacilitatorsCurrent orientationCurrent orientationReactiveReactiveResponsiveResponsiveMediatingMediatingGatekeepersGatekeepersRisk AverseRisk Averse
BYSTANDERS ACTORSBYSTANDERS ACTORSBuilding Industry Stakeholder AnalysisBuilding Industry Stakeholder Analysis
8 © BMI-BRSCU
Low Low High HighPOWERPOWER
LEV
EL O
F I
NTER
ES
T (
STA
KE)
LEV
EL O
F I
NTER
ES
T (
STA
KE)
UN
AFEC
TED
UN
AFEC
TED
STA
KEH
OLD
ER
SS
TA
KEH
OLD
ER
SLow
Low
Hig
hH
igh
PLAYERSPLAYERSCommittedCommittedIn the KnowIn the Know
RESERVESRESERVESInvolvedInvolvedKeep InformedKeep Informed
CROWDCROWDInterestedInterestedMinimal EffortMinimal Effort
REFEREESREFEREESConcernedConcernedKeep SatisfiedKeep Satisfied
BYSTANDERS ACTORSBYSTANDERS ACTORSBuilding Industry Stakeholder AnalysisBuilding Industry Stakeholder Analysis
9 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU
INTER
ES
T (
STA
KE)
INTER
ES
T (
STA
KE)
UN
AFEC
TED
U
NA
FEC
TED
S
TA
KEH
OLD
ER
SS
TA
KEH
OLD
ER
SLow
Low
Hig
hH
igh
BYSTANDERS ACTORSBYSTANDERS ACTORS
Low Low High HighPOWERPOWER
PLAYERSPLAYERSProperty Entrepreneurs, Property Entrepreneurs, developers, developers, Public Sector,Public Sector,FINANCIAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONS(Mortgage Origination, (Mortgage Origination, Approval, Approval, Advances, Advances, Properties in Possession, Properties in Possession, Auctions)Auctions)
RESERVESRESERVESArchitects, Specifiers,Architects, Specifiers,Manufacturers, Manufacturers, Distributors,Distributors,Contractors,Contractors,FINANCIAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONS(Deposits, Repayments, (Deposits, Repayments, Insurance, cross selling) Insurance, cross selling) CROWDCROWDLabour, Labour, Unions,Unions,Consumer bodies,Consumer bodies,FINANCIAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONS(Property Values, Property (Property Values, Property reports (HPI), Statistics)reports (HPI), Statistics)
REFEREESREFEREESGovt Prov-, Local-Govt Prov-, Local-Authorities, CIDB, NHBRC, Authorities, CIDB, NHBRC, SABS, Agrement Board, SABS, Agrement Board, MBA’S, SARB, State MBA’S, SARB, State Tender Board,Tender Board,FINANCIAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS INSTITUTIONS (Valuations, LTV ratios, (Valuations, LTV ratios, Mortgage Rate, term, Mortgage Rate, term, Affordability)Affordability)
Building Industry Stakeholder AnalysisBuilding Industry Stakeholder Analysis
10 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU
INTER
ES
T (
STA
KE)
INTER
ES
T (
STA
KE)
UN
AFEC
TED
U
NA
FEC
TED
S
TA
KEH
OLD
ER
SS
TA
KEH
OLD
ER
SLow
Low
Hig
hH
igh
BYSTANDERS ACTORSBYSTANDERS ACTORS
Low Low High HighPOWERPOWER
PLAYERSPLAYERSProperty Entrepreneurs, Property Entrepreneurs, developers, developers, Public Sector,Public Sector,FINANCIAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONS(Mortgage Origination, (Mortgage Origination, Approval, Approval, Advances, Advances, Properties in Possession, Properties in Possession, Auctions)Auctions)
RESERVESRESERVESArchitects, Specifiers,Architects, Specifiers,Manufacturers, Manufacturers, Distributors,Distributors,Contractors,Contractors,FINANCIAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONS(Deposits, Repayments, (Deposits, Repayments, Insurance, cross selling) Insurance, cross selling) CROWDCROWDLabour, Labour, Unions,Unions,Consumer bodies,Consumer bodies,FINANCIAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONS(Property Values, Property (Property Values, Property reports (HPI), Statistics)reports (HPI), Statistics)
REFEREESREFEREESGovt Prov-, Local-Govt Prov-, Local-Authorities, CIDB, NHBRC, Authorities, CIDB, NHBRC, SABS, Agrement Board, SABS, Agrement Board, MBA’S, SARB, State MBA’S, SARB, State Tender Board,Tender Board,FINANCIAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS INSTITUTIONS (Valuations, LTV ratios, (Valuations, LTV ratios, Mortgage Rate, term, Mortgage Rate, term, Affordability)Affordability)
Building Industry Stakeholder AnalysisBuilding Industry Stakeholder AnalysisFinancial Institutions have INORDINATE Power and Interest. They play in all the quadrants of the Stakeholder Matrix and are SIMULTANEOUSLY PLAYERS, RESERVES, REFEREES and CROWD.They make the rules of the game and influence every facet of it.
11 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU
INTER
ES
T (
STA
KE)
INTER
ES
T (
STA
KE)
UN
AFEC
TED
U
NA
FEC
TED
S
TA
KEH
OLD
ER
SS
TA
KEH
OLD
ER
SLow
Low
Hig
hH
igh
BYSTANDERS ACTORSBYSTANDERS ACTORS
Low Low High HighPOWERPOWER
PLAYERSPLAYERSProperty Entrepreneurs, Property Entrepreneurs, developers, developers, Public Sector,Public Sector,FINANCIAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONS(Mortgage Origination, (Mortgage Origination, Approval, Approval, Advances, Advances, Properties in Possession, Properties in Possession, Auctions)Auctions)
RESERVESRESERVESArchitects, Specifiers,Architects, Specifiers,Manufacturers, Manufacturers, Distributors,Distributors,Contractors,Contractors,FINANCIAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONS(Deposits, Repayments, (Deposits, Repayments, Insurance, cross selling) Insurance, cross selling) CROWDCROWDLabour, Labour, Unions,Unions,Consumer bodies,Consumer bodies,FINANCIAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONS(Property Values, Property (Property Values, Property reports (HPI), Statistics)reports (HPI), Statistics)
REFEREESREFEREESGovt Prov-, Local-Govt Prov-, Local-Authorities, CIDB, NHBRC, Authorities, CIDB, NHBRC, SABS, Agrement Board, SABS, Agrement Board, MBA’S, SARB, State MBA’S, SARB, State Tender Board,Tender Board,FINANCIAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS INSTITUTIONS (Valuations, LTV ratios, (Valuations, LTV ratios, Mortgage Rate, term, Mortgage Rate, term, Affordability)Affordability)
Building Industry Stakeholder AnalysisBuilding Industry Stakeholder Analysis
Lanice Steward, MD of Anne Porter Knight Frank, says it is time that the regular bank reviews gave a more balanced picture of South African residential property."These bank surveys are widely consulted and
referred to and are highly influential. Where, it seems to me, they fall down is that they tend to reflect only the price moves on homes for which their bank has issued mortgage bonds.” (Business Day, 8 Feb 2011)
12 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU
INTER
ES
T (
STA
KE)
INTER
ES
T (
STA
KE)
UN
AFEC
TED
U
NA
FEC
TED
S
TA
KEH
OLD
ER
SS
TA
KEH
OLD
ER
SLow
Low
Hig
hH
igh
BYSTANDERS ACTORSBYSTANDERS ACTORS
Low Low High HighPOWERPOWER
PLAYERSPLAYERSProperty Entrepreneurs, Property Entrepreneurs, developers, developers, Public Sector,Public Sector,FINANCIAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONS(Mortgage Origination, (Mortgage Origination, Approval, Approval, Advances, Advances, Properties in Possession, Properties in Possession, Auctions)Auctions)
RESERVESRESERVESArchitects, Specifiers,Architects, Specifiers,Manufacturers, Manufacturers, Distributors,Distributors,Contractors,Contractors,FINANCIAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONSDeposits, Repayments, Deposits, Repayments, Insurance) Insurance) CROWDCROWDLabour, Labour, Unions,Unions,Consumer bodies,Consumer bodies,FINANCIAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONS(Property Values, Property (Property Values, Property reports (HPI), Statistics)reports (HPI), Statistics)
REFEREESREFEREESGovt Prov-, Local-Govt Prov-, Local-Authorities, CIDB, NHBRC, Authorities, CIDB, NHBRC, SABS, Agrement Board, SABS, Agrement Board, MBA’S, SARB, State MBA’S, SARB, State Tender Board,Tender Board,FINANCIAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS INSTITUTIONS (Valuations, LTV ratios, (Valuations, LTV ratios, Mortgage Rate, term, Mortgage Rate, term, Affordability)Affordability)
Building Industry Stakeholder AnalysisBuilding Industry Stakeholder Analysis
COMPETING WITH THEIR CUSTOMERS – AND THE
BUILDING INDUSTRY?
A property becomes a Property in Possession (PIP) or Bank Repossessed Property, once a customer has defaulted and the bank's reserve price was not achieved at auction.Maintaining these properties is expensiveThe sale of PIP’s is in order to recover costs.
13 © BMI-BRSCU
14 © BMI-BRSCU
We understand that homes are expensive these days. That’s why FNB offers you Bank repossessed properties at hugely discounted prices. All prices are negotiable. FNB Homeloans also offers loans up to 100% and there are no transfer duties payable.
The properties are predominantly situated in what could be described as Middleclass areas. These areas are predominantly areas with an average property price of R300 000 – R650 000.
15 © BMI-BRSCU
ABSA strategy in Repossession market powered by www.MyRoof.co.za
16 © BMI-BRSCU
Standard Bank strategy in Repossession market.
17 © BMI-BRSCU
NEDBANK strategy in Repossession market.
18 © BMI-BRSCU
“Are we making the same mistake again, not to see a crisis in the making?”
19 © BMI-BRSCU
How can we create an environment that gives us the leverage to influence the Financial Institutions?
20 © BMI-BRSCU
Relationships and tools that can be used to manipulate a crisis have to be prepared for years – sometimes decades – in advance.
This reflects (Holling’s) belief that in a changing eco system the persistence of relationships matters more than anything else.
That’s a reason that the re-acquiring of habits of . . . cooperation in everything . . . is so essential.
It lets us begin to rebuild the webs of contacts, influence, and leverage to shape the environment around problems that we’ll never be able to attack directly. (Ramo: 2009: 214)
21 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU
There can be no return to high levels of employment and growth without finding a way of harnessing finance’s creative energies to allocate resources and risk so effectively that it spurs and speeds economic growth.
We must never forget that credit, and the need for securitisation too, is at the heart of a modern financial system. (Gordon Brown: 2010: 109)
There is a compelling need for wide Stakeholder collaboration to address common problems.
22 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU
Animal Spirits drive almost everything. Animal Spirits are more than just confidence as measured by confidence indicators.
Declining Animal Spirits are the principal reason for the recent severe economic crisis.
And despite the recent positive
economic indicators, we see no clear indication that these spirits are yet revived. (Akerlof and Shiller: 2009: vii)
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCEwww.strategicforum.co.za
We are facing the same problem today that we faced in the later years of the Great Depression – business today is inhibited by uncertainty about the future, about the tolerance of an angry public, about a disaffected labour force, and about what further government actions may be coming.
Animal Spirits are the forces that drives all of this, and to understand animal spirits we have to use methodologies outside of traditional economics, leading us to other social sciences.
Five psychological factors are of particular importance;
1. Confidence;2. Fairness;3. Corruption and bad faith;4. Money illusion; and
5. Stories. (Akerlof and Shiller: 2009: ix)
23 © BMI-BRSCU
RES
PO
NS
R
ES
PO
NS
Irra
tion
al
Irra
tion
al
Rati
on
al
Rati
on
al
Non EconomicNon Economic EconomicEconomicMOTIVESMOTIVES
Conventional Economic Conventional Economic TheoryTheory
Economic theory Economic theory incorporating “Animal incorporating “Animal Spirits”. Spirits”.
Economic theory Economic theory incorporating “Animal incorporating “Animal Spirits”. Spirits”.
Economic theory Economic theory incorporating “Animal incorporating “Animal Spirits”. Spirits”.
How the Macro Economy behavesHow the Macro Economy behaves
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCEwww.strategicforum.co.za
24 © BMI-BRSCU
RES
PO
NS
R
ES
PO
NS
Irra
tion
al
Irra
tion
al
Rati
on
al
Rati
on
al
Non EconomicNon Economic EconomicEconomicMOTIVESMOTIVES
Conventional Economic Conventional Economic TheoryTheory
Economic theory Economic theory incorporating “Animal incorporating “Animal Spirits”. Spirits”.
Economic theory Economic theory incorporating “Animal incorporating “Animal Spirits”. Spirits”.
Economic theory Economic theory incorporating “Animal incorporating “Animal Spirits”. Spirits”.
How the Macro Economy behavesHow the Macro Economy behaves
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCEwww.strategicforum.co.za
Akerlof & Shiller believe that the answers to the most important questions regarding how the macro economy behaves and what we ought to do when it misbehaves lie largely (though not exclusively) within the three white boxes)
25 © BMI-BRSCU
• The current model fills only the top right hand box; it The current model fills only the top right hand box; it answers the question: answers the question: How does the economy behave if How does the economy behave if people only have economic motives and if they people only have economic motives and if they respond to them rationally?respond to them rationally?•But that leads immediately to three more questions, But that leads immediately to three more questions, corresponding to the three blank boxes: corresponding to the three blank boxes: How does the How does the economy behave with non-economic motives and economy behave with non-economic motives and rational responses? With economic motives and rational responses? With economic motives and irrational responses? With non-economic motives and irrational responses? With non-economic motives and irrational responses? irrational responses? •Akerlof & Shiller believe that the answers to the most Akerlof & Shiller believe that the answers to the most important questions regarding how the macro economy important questions regarding how the macro economy behaves and what we ought to do when it misbehaves behaves and what we ought to do when it misbehaves lie lie largely (though not exclusively) within those three largely (though not exclusively) within those three blank boxes)blank boxes)•Their description of the economy fits the Their description of the economy fits the qualitative as qualitative as well as the quantitative facts,well as the quantitative facts, better than a macro- better than a macro-economics that leaves out irrational behaviour and non-economics that leaves out irrational behaviour and non-economic motives.economic motives.•Thus, they occasionally use statistics but for the most Thus, they occasionally use statistics but for the most part, rely on history and on part, rely on history and on stories. stories. (Akerlof & Shiller: (Akerlof & Shiller: 2009: 168)2009: 168)
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCEwww.strategicforum.co.za
How the Macro Economy behavesHow the Macro Economy behaves
© BMI-BRSCU
RESPO
NS
RESPO
NS
Irra
tiona
l Irra
tiona
l R
atio
nal
Rat
iona
l
Non EconomicNon Economic EconomicEconomicMOTIVESMOTIVES
Conventional Economic TheoryConventional Economic TheoryEconomic theory incorporating Economic theory incorporating ““Animal SpiritsAnimal Spirits””. .
Economic theory incorporating Economic theory incorporating ““Animal SpiritsAnimal Spirits””. .
Economic theory incorporating Economic theory incorporating ““Animal SpiritsAnimal Spirits””. .
26 © BMI-BRSCU
The MFA CLIBI has moved sideways for four quarters, still reflecting widespread pessimism in the South African building industry … this is the first time that it has moved sideways for more than two quarters, an unprecedented occurrence … a recovery-in-waiting?
MFA COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATOR (CLIBI)FOR THE SOUTH AFRICAN BUILDING INDUSTRY
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
| 71 | 74 | 77 | 80 | 83 | 86 | 89 | 92 | 95 | 98 | 01 | 04 | 07 | 10 | 13
Source: FNB / BER; SARB; MFA DATABASE
PE
SS
IMIS
M <
50
> O
PT
IMIS
M
OPTIMISM
PESSIMISM
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCEwww.strategicforum.co.za
?
27 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCEwww.strategicforum.co.za
A confident prediction is one that projects the future to be rosy; an unconfident prediction projects the future as bleak.
But if we look up confidence in the dictionary, we see that it is more than a prediction. The dictionary says that it means “trust” or “full belief”.
The word comes from the Latin “fido”, meaning “I trust”.
The confidence crisis that we are in at the moment is also called a “credit crisis”. The word “credit” derives from the Latin “credo”, meaning “I believe”. (Akerlof and Shiller: 2009: 12)
If this is what we mean by confidence, then we see immediately why, if it varies over time, it should play a major role in the business cycle. Why?
In good times, people trust. They make decisions spontaneously. They know instinctively that they will be successful. They suspend their suspicions.
Asset values will be high and perhaps also increasing. As long as people remain trusting, their impulsiveness will not be evident.
But then, when the confidence disappears, the tide goes out. The nakedness of their decisions stand revealed.
When people are confident, they go out and buy; when they are unconfident they withdraw, and they sell.
Economic history is full of such cycles of confidence followed by withdrawal (Akerlof and Shiller: 2009: 12,13)
28 © BMI-BRSCU
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCEwww.strategicforum.co.za
For some reason in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the idea that homes and apartments were spectacular investments, gained a stronghold on the public imagination in the United States and many other countries as well.
Not only did prices escalate, but there was palpable excitement about real estate investments; one could see the animal spirits in action everywhere.
It was the biggest home price boom in U.S. history. It extended over nearly a decade, beginning in the late 1990s.
Prices nearly doubled before the bust began in 2006. While it lasted, this spectacular boom mirrored in other countries as well, helped drive the entire world economy and its stock markets.
In its wake, it has left the biggest real estate crisis since the 1930s. The so-called sub-prime crisis, as well as a global financial crisis, the full dimensions of which still have to be grasped. (Akerlof and Shiller: 2009: 149)
29 © BMI-BRSCU
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCEwww.strategicforum.co.za
For some reason in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the idea that homes and apartments were spectacular investments, gained a stronghold on the public imagination in the United States and many other countries as well.
Not only did prices escalate, but there was palpable excitement about real estate investments; one could see the animal spirits in action everywhere.
It was the biggest home price boom in U.S. history. It extended over nearly a decade, beginning in the late 1990s.
Prices nearly doubled before the bust began in 2006. While it lasted, this spectacular boom mirrored in other countries as well, helped drive the entire world economy and its stock markets.
In its wake, it has left the biggest real estate crisis since the 1930s. The so-called sub-prime crisis, as well as a global financial crisis, the full dimensions of which still have to be grasped. (Akerlof and Shiller: 2009: 149)
The story of the time . . .
30 © BMI-BRSCU
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCEwww.strategicforum.co.za
And then the story changed . . .
31 © BMI-BRSCU
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCEwww.strategicforum.co.za
A final problem dogging the market is that, in response to the financial crisis and the subsequent changes in liquidity requirements, banks have tightened their lending criteria and so fewer people now qualify for home loans. Therefore, even though rates are at multi-year lows, lending remains subdued.
Thanks to this perfect storm, it seems unlikely that the US housing market will recover any time soon. Indeed, further falls may well be on the cards. (Moneyweb, 31 May 2011)
32 © BMI-BRSCU
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCEwww.strategicforum.co.za
With employment prospects uncertain, people are less willing to take on new mortgage debt and less able to service their existing debt - the foreclosure rate remains elevated - thus keeping prices depressed.
Furthermore, many people are opting to rent, rather than buy, in order to avoid binding themselves to a particular geographic location; they want to be able to move to wherever the jobs are. (Moneyweb, 31 May 2011)
33 © BMI-BRSCU
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCEwww.strategicforum.co.za
A recent survey of 8000 Britons aged 20 to 45 found that more than three-quarters who don’t own property would like to, but 64% believe their chance of doing so is nil.
In Germany only 39% own the homes that they live in compared with about 60% in Britain and 50% in France. In South Africa some 80% own their homes, but this is likely to change in future. (The Independent, 31 May 2011)
34 © BMI-BRSCU
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCEwww.strategicforum.co.za
Nominal house price growth(80m²-400m², ≤R3,1 million)
(Source: ABSA HPI, Q4 2010)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Small
Medium
Large
In South Africa the story is similar.
35 © BMI-BRSCU
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCEwww.strategicforum.co.za
JOHANNESBURG - The Consumer Protection Act which comes into effect on April 1 2011, has raised several concerns, among them the lack of protection for landlords who feel the new legislation will offer them little recourse in the way of defaulting tenants.
The Act provides ample protection to investors and homeowners in their dealings with unscrupulous estate agents. However, some landlords feel the legislation leaves them in the lurch.
Abandon all hope in property. (?)
That is a rather brutal summary of the outlook for residential, commercial and industrial property described by First National's property guru John Loos and veteran property analyst Erwin Rode (pictured) at a symposium in Johannesburg. (David Carte writing on Moneyweb, 30 March 2011)
Who will build Rental housing?
36 © BMI-BRSCU
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCEwww.strategicforum.co.za
Adding to Consumer uncertainty and HOPELESSNESS?
37 © BMI-BRSCU
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCEwww.strategicforum.co.za
Do overseas Investors have a different, longer-term view of prospects for Property inSA??
38 © BMI-BRSCU
Stage 1Hubris bornOf success
Stage 2Undisciplined
Pursuit of More
Stage 3Denial of Risk
and Peril
Stage 4Grasping for
Salvation
Stage 5Recovery and
Renewal
WELL FOUNDED HOPE
STRATEGIC DRIFT AND REINVENTIONwww.strategicforum.co.za
(Source: Based on Collins: How the Mighty Fall: 2009)
39 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU
Stage 1Hubris bornOf success
Stage 2Undisciplined
Pursuit of More
Stage 3Denial of Risk
and Peril
Stage 4Grasping for
Salvation
Stage 5Recovery and
Renewal
WELL FOUNDED HOPE
?
What will it take?
(Source: Based on Collins: How the Mighty Fall: 2009)
What can we do to What can we do to restore growth when one restore growth when one part of the Industry wants part of the Industry wants to save (and not spend) to save (and not spend) and the other wants to and the other wants to stop spending (and stop spending (and save)?save)?
BPP and BC
STRATEGIC DRIFT AND REINVENTIONwww.strategicforum.co.za
40 © BMI-BRSCU
Total Building Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP): 1993-2010: BC and Ideal NBIP (INBIP) by Month: 1993-2009: R*1000 (Current Values) (Jan)
(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building1993-2008: NBIP (BPP-BC): Chart 16)
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Total Building NBIP (BPP-BC) Total Building BCTotal Building INBIP 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building NBIP (BPP-BC))12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building BC) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building INBIP)
STRATEGIC DRIFT AND REINVENTIONwww.strategicforum.co.za
Can the Building Industry TRANSFORM and
REINVENT itself – can it recover?
41 © BMI-BRSCU
New mortgage loans and readvances by month and application: 1993-2009 (September)(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1993
/01
1993
/07
1994
/01
1994
/07
1995
/01
1995
/07
1996
/01
1996
/07
1997
/01
1997
/07
1998
/01
1998
/07
1999
/01
1999
/07
2000
/01
2000
/07
2001
/01
2001
/07
2002
/01
2002
/07
2003
/01
2003
/07
2004
/01
2004
/07
2005
/01
2005
/07
2006
/01
2006
/07
2007
/01
2007
/07
2008
/01
2008
/07
2009
/01
2009
/07
R M
illio
ns
(Cu
rren
t V
alu
es)
New mortgage loans and re-advances applied on existing buildings
Gross new mortgage loans and re-advances for construction of buildings
Net new mortgage loans and re-advances applied on vacant land
12 per. Mov. Avg. (New mortgage loans and re-advances applied on existing buildings)
STRATEGIC DRIFT AND REINVENTIONwww.strategicforum.co.za
It will FUNDAMENTALLY depend on the strategy of
the FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS.
42 © BMI-BRSCU
Building Industry Stakeholder AnalysisBuilding Industry Stakeholder Analysis
Low Low High HighPOWERPOWER
INTER
ES
T (
STA
KE)
INTER
ES
T (
STA
KE)
UN
AFEC
TED
U
NA
FEC
TED
S
TA
KEH
OLD
ER
SS
TA
KEH
OLD
ER
SLow
Low
Hig
hH
igh
PLAYERSPLAYERSProperty Entrepreneurs, Property Entrepreneurs, Property developers,Property developers,Public Sector,Public Sector,Building IndustryBuilding Industry
RESERVESRESERVESArchitects, Specifiers,Architects, Specifiers,Manufacturers, Manufacturers, Distributors,Distributors,Contractors, Financial Contractors, Financial Institutions,Institutions,Building IndustryBuilding Industry
CROWDCROWDLabour, Labour, Unions,Unions,Consumer bodies,Consumer bodies,Building IndustryBuilding Industry
REFEREESREFEREESGovt, Provincial, Local-Govt, Provincial, Local-AuthoritiesAuthoritiesCIDB, NHBRC, SABS, CIDB, NHBRC, SABS, Agrement Board, MBA’S,Agrement Board, MBA’S,SARB, State SARB, State Tender Tender Board,Board,Building IndustryBuilding Industry
BYSTANDERS ACTORSBYSTANDERS ACTORS
Think “outside the box”. Change the “rules of the game”.Become a PRO-ACTIVE PLAYER in each of the quadrants of the Stakeholder Matrix.
How can we create an environment that gives us the leverage to influence the Banks?
STRATEGIC DRIFT AND REINVENTIONwww.strategicforum.co.za
43 © BMI-BRSCU
STRATEGIC DRIFT AND REINVENTIONwww.strategicforum.co.za
Building Industry Stakeholder AnalysisBuilding Industry Stakeholder Analysis
Low Low High HighPOWERPOWER
INTER
ES
T (
STA
KE)
INTER
ES
T (
STA
KE)
UN
AFEC
TED
U
NA
FEC
TED
S
TA
KEH
OLD
ER
SS
TA
KEH
OLD
ER
SLow
Low
Hig
hH
igh
PLAYERSPLAYERSProperty Entrepreneurs, Property Entrepreneurs, Property developers,Property developers,Building IndustryBuilding Industry(Mortgage Origination, (Mortgage Origination, Approval, Advances, Approval, Advances, Repossessions, Auctions)Repossessions, Auctions)
RESERVESRESERVESArchitects, Specifiers,Architects, Specifiers,Manufacturers, Manufacturers, Distributors, Financial Distributors, Financial Institutions.Institutions.Building IndustryBuilding Industry(Contractors, Deposits, (Contractors, Deposits, Repayments, Insurance)Repayments, Insurance) CROWDCROWDLabour, Labour, Unions,Unions,Consumer bodies,Consumer bodies,Building IndustryBuilding Industry(Property Values, Property (Property Values, Property reports (HPI), Statistics)reports (HPI), Statistics)
REFEREESREFEREESGovt, Prov-, Local-Govt, Prov-, Local-AuthoritiesAuthoritiesCIDB, NHBRC, SABS, CIDB, NHBRC, SABS, Agrement Board, MBA’S,Agrement Board, MBA’S,SARB, State Tender SARB, State Tender Board,Board,Building IndustryBuilding Industry (Valuations, LTV ratios, (Valuations, LTV ratios, Mortgage Rate, term, Mortgage Rate, term, Affordability, Quality)Affordability, Quality)
BYSTANDERS ACTORSBYSTANDERS ACTORSDevelop an Igniting INDUSTRY Vision and a Grand Strategy: Promote Building as the engine for growth, nation building and wealth creation through Property Ownership.
Develop an Igniting INDUSTRY Vision and a Grand Strategy: Promote Building as the engine for growth, nation building and wealth creation through Property Ownership.
44 © BMI-BRSCU
STRATEGIC DRIFT AND REINVENTIONwww.strategicforum.co.za
Productive capacity
Alliances,Joint
Ventures
Cross functional
Networking
Enterprise Development,
BEE
Skills Training and Development
Leadership,Lobbying,Advocacy
Modeling cooperative behaviour
REINVENTION
The Hot Spot Scenario: mapping emergence(Based on Gratton: 2007: 145)
Management Training and Development
INDUSTRY
Government Labour
45 © BMI-BRSCU
STRATEGIC DRIFT AND REINVENTIONwww.strategicforum.co.za
Productive capacity
Alliances,Joint
Ventures
Cross functional
Networking
Enterprise Development,
BEE
Skills Training and Developmen
t
Leadership,Lobbying,Advocacy
Modeling cooperative behaviour
REINVENTION
The Hot Spot Scenario: mapping emergence(Based on Gratton: 2007: 145)
Management Training and Development
INDUSTRY
Government Labour
Who in the building and property industry is driving a vision of any description? Is there even a vision at all?
Who will appropriate the role to champion the cause to promote nation-building through home-ownership, property as a preferred investment and building as an engine for growth and wealth-creation? And WHO WILL ADVOCATE THE HOPES AND DREAMS of millions of homeowners (and that of an industry that employs over one million people)?
The more peers we can bring online for the business of saving the world, the easier the effort will be, and in a sense, the stronger we will each be. (Ramo: 2009: 240)
46 © BMI-BRSCU
STRATEGIC DRIFT AND REINVENTIONwww.strategicforum.co.za
Productive capacity
Alliances,Joint
Ventures
Cross functional
Networking
Enterprise Development,
BEE
Skills Training and Developmen
t
Leadership,Lobbying,Advocacy
Modeling cooperative behaviour
REINVENTION
The Hot Spot Scenario: mapping emergence(Based on Gratton: 2007: 145)
Building: The Engine for Growth and Wealth Creation. Property a preferred investment
Management Training and Development
INDUSTRY
Government Labour
47 © BMI-BRSCU
We have concluded that it is not one single body or institution or company that should develop and drive an igniting vision for the building industry.
The industry COLLECTIVELY must take ACCOUNTABILITY to develop an igniting vision of Nation Building through Home Ownership, Property as a Preferred Investment and Building as an Engine for Growth and Wealth Creation.
We envision that every major organisation in the Building Industry from Development to Manufacturing, to Distribution, to Contracting and Finance should adopt this overarching vision and customise it for their
own vision (see example of Claybrick.org overleaf).
Then the Building and Property Industry will indeed become a HOT SPOT industry driven by an igniting vision, a collaborative mind-set, cross boundary networking and the productive capability to make South Africa a Winning Nation. Then a repetition of the sub-prime crisis will not catch a cooperating industry unawares.
STRATEGIC DRIFT AND REINVENTIONwww.strategicforum.co.za
48 © BMI-BRSCU
STRATEGIC DRIFT AND REINVENTIONwww.strategicforum.co.za
49 © BMI-BRSCU
STRATEGIC DRIFT AND REINVENTIONwww.strategicforum.co.za
50 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU
NATIONAL ISSUES
GROWTH WEALTHEMPLOYMENT PROPERTY
ORGANISATION’S ROLE
INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
MARKETING LOGISTICS
VISIONBuilding is the engine for growth and wealth creation through Property Ownership and THE ORGANISATION is the preferred Partner for good as the green BUILDING solution of choice.
MANUFACTURING
BUILDING INDUSTRY AN ENGINE OF GROWTH
REINVENTIONDoing well while
doing good.
REINVENTIONDoing well while
doing good.
YESTERDAY’S ECONOMY
TOMORROW’SECONOMY
NARROW FOCUS ON COMPANY
NARROW FOCUS ON COMPANY
BROAD FOCUS ON CONTRIBUTION TO NATIONAL ISSUES
BROAD FOCUS ON CONTRIBUTION TO NATIONAL ISSUES
Overarching INDUSTRY vision aligned with National Issues, adapted and customised by the organisation for their own vision and values. MISSION
Developing and growing competitive awareness, knowledge and support of END USERS and maintaining consistent standards in the environmentally friendly production of PRODUCTS for good value and performance in building.
VALUESThe Organisation has an igniting vision, a culture, or mind set of co-operation, collaboration and cross-boundary networking; and a production capability to facilitate delivery of fit for purpose products and
solutions and based on the unashamedly ethical values and code of conduct of:• Respect• Responsibility• Honesty• Integrity• Accountability• Collaboration
BORROWBUY BURN
ENVIRONMENTALSUSTAINABILITY
SOCIALSUSTAINABILITY
ECONOMICSUSTAINABILITY
STRATEGIC DRIFT AND REINVENTIONwww.strategicforum.co.za
51 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU
TowardsBuilding: The Engine for Growth and Wealth Creation
Dr. Llewellyn B. LewisDr. Llewellyn B. LewisMarch 2011March 2011
THE STRATEGIC FORUMTHE STRATEGIC FORUM
A place of assembly for strategic conversations
BMI
Studium Ad Prosperandum
Voluntas in Conveniendum
BUILDING RESEARCHSTRATEGY CONSULTINGUNIT cc
Reg. No. 2002/105109/23
•BMI
Studium Ad Prosperandum
Voluntas in Conveniendum
BUILDING RESEARCHSTRATEGY CONSULTINGUNIT cc
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
Studium Ad Prosperandum
Voluntas in Conveniendum
BUILDING RESEARCHSTRATEGY CONSULTINGUNIT cc
Reg. No. 2002/105109/23
•BMI
Studium Ad Prosperandum
Voluntas in Conveniendum
BUILDING RESEARCHSTRATEGY CONSULTINGUNIT cc
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•