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2012 LA Mayoral Housing, Transportation & Jobs Summit - UCLA Anderson School of Management and UCLA School of Law professor Paul Habibi presents his centerpiece report, "Livable Communities: Enhancing Economic Competitiveness in Los Angeles County." For more information or to contact us, please visit www.grayslakeadvisors.com.
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BUILDING LIVABLE COMMUNITIES: Enhancing L.A. County’s Economic Competitiveness Paul Habibi UCLA Anderson School of Management Richard S. Ziman Center for Real Estate Los Angeles Business Council 2012 Mayoral Housing, Transportation and Jobs Summit
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Objectives of this Report 1. Update the 2008 Workforce Housing Scorecard
2. Identify the Jobs-Housing Balance in L.A. County
3. Assess the availability of workforce housing (for households earning 50% to 120% of AMI) near jobs & transit facilities
4. Recommend policy strategies for encouraging additional investment in workforce housing & livable communities
2
HOW DID WE GET HERE? TRENDS FROM 2008 - 2012
3
2008 Workforce Housing Scorecard
The 2008 Scorecard concluded:
Jobs and housing should ideally be co-located, at healthy ratio of 1.5:1
Varying degrees of mismatch in L.A. County’s 88 cities
Need more workforce housing in jobs-rich communities, and vice versa
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Since then, a lot has changed… Renewed focus on rental housing is a secular trend
Renewed focus on rental housing
Changed views on homeownership
Tightened lending standards
Housing crisis and downward spiral of prices
5
• Median rent is $1,797/mo, median household can afford $1,325/mo
• Gap is expected to increase given strong rent growth projections
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Median Existing Home Price, L.A. County
120% AMI Affordability Threshold
Owning and Renting Both Remain Unaffordable 55% of owners, 59% of renters considered “cost burdened” by HUD
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey
If You Could Afford to Live Here, You’d Be Home By Now…
Los Angeles CMSA
100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 120.0 125.0 130.0 135.0 140.0 145.0 150.0
CPI Housing Index for Select Metro Areas (2000-2011)
Los Angeles CMSA
New York CMSA
Seattle CMSA
Dallas CMSA
San Francisco CMSA
San Diego MSA
Chicago CMSA
Real housing costs are increasing, and affordability gap between L.A. and other regions is widening
7 Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey
THE NEED FOR WORKFORCE HOUSING
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Workforce Housing Remains Undersupplied SCAG 2012 Regional Housing Needs Assessment: L.A. County
WORKFORCE HOUSING Very Low Income
(<50% AMI) Low Income
(50 to 80% AMI)
Moderate Income (80 to 120% AMI)
Above Moderate Income (>120%
AMI) Total
2014 – 2021 45,720 27,497 30,074 76,779 180,070 Annually 5,715 3,437 3,759 9,597 22,509 2012 Level 13,100
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Workforce Housing Remains Undersupplied
• To accommodate workforce, an average of 22,509 new units/year will have to be built • Including 7,196 new workforce units/year
10
SCAG 2012 Regional Housing Needs Assessment: L.A. County WORKFORCE HOUSING Very Low Income
(<50% AMI) Low Income
(50 to 80% AMI)
Moderate Income (80 to 120% AMI)
Above Moderate Income (>120%
AMI) Total
2014 – 2021 45,720 27,497 30,074 76,779 180,070 Annually 5,715 3,437 3,759 9,597 22,509 2012 Level 13,100
Workforce Housing Remains Undersupplied
• Most affordable housing programs target households earning less than 80% AMI, leaving much of workforce housing as the “donut hole” in the middle of the market
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SCAG 2012 Regional Housing Needs Assessment: L.A. County WORKFORCE HOUSING Very Low Income
(<50% AMI) Low Income
(50 to 80% AMI)
Moderate Income (80 to 120% AMI)
Above Moderate Income (>120%
AMI) Total
2014 – 2021 45,720 27,497 30,074 76,779 180,070 Annually 5,715 3,437 3,759 9,597 22,509 2012 Level 13,100
Foster Private Development – And Capitalize On It
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Foster Private Development – And Capitalize On It
Density Allow additional density in target areas by-right
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Foster Private Development – And Capitalize On It
Density Allow additional density in target areas by-right
Increase & Streamline Public Funding
Identify and help provide developers with new sources of funds
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Foster Private Development – And Capitalize On It
Density Allow additional density in target areas by-right
Increase & Streamline Public Funding
Identify and help provide developers with new sources of funds
CEQA Updates Categorical exemptions, Master EIRs, and streamlined review/appeal process
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Foster Private Development – And Capitalize On It
Density Allow additional density in target areas by-right
Increase & Streamline Public Funding
Identify and help provide developers with new sources of funds
CEQA Updates Categorical exemptions, Master EIRs, and streamlined review/appeal process
Leverage Catalytic Projects
Cities should reap the benefits of private investments near transit
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Value Chain
Site Acquisition
Entitlements: Planning and Design
Permits and Bidding
Higher
Lower
Required Return
Lower
High Risk Project = High Price Points
Sales and Marketing
Construction (Rough and Finish)
Higher
Risk
Filling the Void of RDAs: Empower Public Agencies to Act as Development Agencies
• Land Acquisition & Assemblage To shoulder predevelopment risk
• Public Agencies Thinking Like Developers Expansion on Metro’s existing development platform
• JVs as Income Streams Joint ventures can create cash flow for future projects
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LIVABLE COMMUNITIES Developing Transit Corridors to Connect Jobs and Housing
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Transit Alleviates Jobs-Housing Dislocation Measures R & J Provide Much-Needed Connectivity
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Using Transit to Connect Jobs and Housing
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CO
CO
LegendOwner Occupied Housing Price
Below $160,000
$160,000 -$ 240,000
$240,000 - $400,000
$400,000 - $560,000
Above $560,000
No Data Available
Jobs-Housing >1.5 Ratio
Expo Line Phase 1
Expo Line Phase 2
The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.
SANTA
MONICA
CO
Using Transit to Connect Jobs and Housing
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CO
CO
LegendOwner Occupied Housing Price
Below $160,000
$160,000 -$ 240,000
$240,000 - $400,000
$400,000 - $560,000
Above $560,000
No Data Available
Jobs-Housing >1.5 Ratio
Expo Line Phase 1
Expo Line Phase 2
The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.
Using Transit to Connect Jobs and Housing
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CO
CO
LegendOwner Occupied Housing Price
Below $160,000
$160,000 -$ 240,000
$240,000 - $400,000
$400,000 - $560,000
Above $560,000
No Data Available
Jobs-Housing >1.5 Ratio
Expo Line Phase 1
Expo Line Phase 2
Keys to Livable Corridors: Develop mixed-income housing near transit facilities
Using Transit to Connect Jobs and Housing
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CO
CO
LegendOwner Occupied Housing Price
Below $160,000
$160,000 -$ 240,000
$240,000 - $400,000
$400,000 - $560,000
Above $560,000
No Data Available
Jobs-Housing >1.5 Ratio
Expo Line Phase 1
Expo Line Phase 2
Keys to Livable Corridors: Don’t forget about employment generating land uses
Use transit assets to connect jobs-rich neighborhoods to areas where workforce housing can be developed more easily
Targeted Investment Target new investment in close proximity to transit lines
Land Use Planning Use transit station plans & community plans to allow denser mixed-use development near transit
TOD to Transit Corridor Shift focus from single-project TODs to livable community development
First / Last Mile Connections expand the developable footprint around transit nodes
Invest in the Development of Livable Corridors Along Transit
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Importance of Development Near Transit
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
under 1/4 mile 1/4-1/2 mile 1/2-1 mile 1-2 miles 2-3 miles 3-5 miles 5-10 miles beyond 10 miles
Distance to nearest transit node
Share of Residents and Workers Using Rail, Subway, or Streetcar
Residents
Workers
Source: Public Policy Institute of California
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Example: Utilize new transit assets + first mile / last mile systems to increase developable footprint and create workforce housing connected to jobs through livable corridors.
Developing Livable Corridors Along Transit
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Example: Utilize new transit assets + first mile / last mile systems to increase developable footprint and create workforce housing connected to jobs through livable corridors.
Developing Livable Corridors Along Transit
28
Example: Utilize new transit assets + first mile / last mile systems to increase developable footprint and create workforce housing connected to jobs through livable corridors.
Developing Livable Corridors Along Transit
29
Example: Utilize new transit assets + first mile / last mile systems to increase developable footprint and create workforce housing connected to jobs through livable corridors.
Developing Livable Corridors Along Transit
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Report Recommendations
1. Invest in the Development of Livable Corridors Along Transit
2. Foster Private Development – and Capitalize On It
3. Emphasize Development of Mixed-Income Housing Near Transit
4. Plan for Employment Generating Land Uses
5. Empower Public Agencies to Act as Development Agencies
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