Westside Future Fund Retail Market Analysis June 2016

1

June 2016

DRAFT

LAND-USE ACTION PLAN

RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS &

RECOMMENDATIONS

Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis DRAFT

• Executive Summary & Study Area Definition

• Supply and Demand Conditions

• Study Area Assessment

• Strengths, Challenges, Opportunities

• Future Retail Potential Analysis

• Future Retail Potential Locations

• Other Recommendations

• Retail Site Selection Primer

REPORT CONTENTS


Study Area demographics will l ikely diminish the potential attraction of national retailers in the short-term in most Westside neighborhoods, which provides an opportunity for local entrepreneurs and initiatives to meet future retail demand.

Local resident spending patterns are similar to those of average American households in terms of retail spending categories.

While the local retail real estate market indicators lag those of the city overall, the local market supports over 800,000 SF of occupied space.

Significant leakage of local retail spending to other commercial areas exists – i.e., local household spending supports large amounts of retail space outside of the Study Area. Capturing a portion of this spending leakage back into the Study Area provides the best opportunity to support additional local retail offerings.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


Capturing a portion of the aforementioned leakage, as well as garnering support from new households moving into the area, and support from attendees to nearby attractions, provides the potential for up to approximately 125,000 SF of additional retail opportunity. This potential exists at strategic locations within each Study Area neighborhood.

Government entities, such as Invest Atlanta, and private organizations, such as the Westside Future Fund, are prepared to provide assistance in local redevelopment initiatives. In order to actualize the potential detailed in this report, local residents and entrepreneurs must work with these groups to initiate the retail growth. Monetary and social enterprise incentives will often be necessary to attract attention for market opportunities.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Boone Corridor 6,500 - 7,750

English Ave. 4,000 - 6,250

Vine City 12,000 - 14,000

Ashview Heights 6,500 - 7,250

AUC 13,000 - 15,000

Castleberry 22,000 - 25,250

Northside Drive 42,500 - 48,750

TOTAL 106,500 - 124,250

Sq. Foot RangeNew Retail Potential by Neighborhood


STUDY AREA BOUNDARIES

Study Area

MARTA Station Area .25-mile Radius

Beltline

H.E

. H

olm

es


SUPPLY AND DEMAND CONDITIONS


CURRENT WESTSIDE DEMAND DRIVERS

Retai l demand in the Study Area currently comes from four main groups, driven largely by residents and col lege students from the AUC. Local employees and tourists make up the remaining demand segments.

The impact of these groups could shift over t ime with the new stadium, Congress Center init iat ives, addit ional employment opportunit ies and continuing BeltLine development.

Residents

Employees

Tourists

College

Students

WESTSIDE STUDY AREA


Populat ion in the Study Area decreased dramatical ly from 2000 to 2010, but is currently trending upwards.

Projected to recover to 79% of 2000 population by 2021.

Study Area accounts for 6.6% of At lanta residents compared to 9.1% in 2000.

POPULATION

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Study Area

City of Atlanta

Relative Population Growth Index , 2000 to 2021

Population Study Area City of Atlanta

2000 Census 38,203 418,156

2010 Census 29,494 420,003

2016 Estimate 29,964 454,629

2021 Projection 30,255 479,455

Avg. Annual Growth 2000-2010 -2.6% 0.0%

Avg. Annual Growth 2010-2016 0.3% 1.3%

Avg. Annual Growth Forecast 2016-2021 0.2% 1.1%

Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from Nielsen, Inc.

DEMAND


Persons per Square Mile, By Block Group

116,000 – 618,000

22,000 – 116,000

4,000 – 22,000

1,000 – 4,000

0 – 1,000

Based on Data from ESRI

Populat ion density i s greatest in the eastern port ion of the Study Area.

Greater population density will help drive retail demand.

Overal l , c i ty of At lanta populat ion density : 3 ,413 persons per Square Mi le

DEMAND POPULATION DENSITY

Source: ESRI


The number of households in the study area decreased by 26% from 2000 to 2010.

Households in the Study Area tend to be sl ight ly larger than those c itywide.

Households Study Area

City of Atlanta

2000 Census 13,197 169,050

2010 Census 9,822 185,484

2016 Estimate 10,089 207,248

2021 Projection 10,366 222,710

Avg. Annual Growth 2000-2010 -2.9% 0.9%

Avg. Annual Growth 2010-2016 0.4% 1.9%

Avg. Annual Growth Forecast 2016-2021 0.5% 1.4%

2016 Est. Avg. Household Size 2.35 2.04

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

CAGR 2000-2010 CAGR 2010-2016 CAGR 2016-2021

Study Area

City of Atlanta

2000-2010 2010-2016 2016-2021 (Forecast)


Annual Household Growth

DEMAND HOUSEHOLDS


Median income in the Study Area is half that of the c ity of At lanta.

Retai lers look very c losely at median household income in deciding where to locate.

Household Income Study Area City of Atlanta

2016 Est. Median Household Income $ 24,047 $ 48,878

% of City Median Income 49% 100%

Households by Income

HH with income >$15K 3,318 33% 41,108 20%

HH with income $15K - $35K 3,147 31% 41,037 20%

HH with income $35K - $50K 1,351 13% 23,216 11%

HH with income $50K - $100K 1,686 17% 49,885 24%

HH with income > $100K 588 6% 52,002 25%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Less than $15K

$15K - $35K

$35K - $50K

$50K - $100K

More than $100K

Study Area City of Atlanta

Annual Household Income


DEMAND INCOME



Median Household, Income,

By Block Group

$105,000 – $200,000

$73,000 – $105,000

$42,000 – $73,000

$10,000 – $42,000

$0 – $10,000

Study Area households are be low m ost ty p ica l income thresholds targeted by a l a rge num ber o f nat iona l reta i l cha ins .

DEMAND INCOME

Source: ESRI



RETAIL SPENDING

DEMAND

Total Retail Spending/HH By

Census Tract

Whi le spending in the area i s s ign i f icant on a per household bas i s , i t i s be low the target leve l s sought by many nat iona l reta i le rs .

Source: ESRI


The top three retai l store types:

Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers

Food & Beverage

Foodservice & Drinking Places

account for 43% of retai l spending by Study Area residents.

This spending pattern is

TYPICAL of

most American retai l trade areas.

CURRENT STUDY AREA RETAIL SPENDING BY STORE TYPE

Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers, $71,972,352

Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores,

$7,472,734

Electronics & Appliances Stores, $10,267,602

Building Material, Garden Equipment Stores, $38,415,840

Food & Beverage Stores, $60,595,683

Health & Personal Care Stores, $24,253,663

Gasoline Stations,

$33,153,890 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores,

$22,321,428

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, Music Stores,

$11,230,418

General Merchandise Stores, $52,714,646

Miscellaneous Store Retailers, $12,988,608

Non-Store Retailers, $41,161,455

Foodservice & Drinking Places, $58,193,467


DEMAND

$372,769,436 Annual Spending


Westside Study Area spending supports 1.5 million square feet of retail space(not including motor vehicles & parts)

2/3 of that spending takes place outside of the Westside Study Area.

Total Annual Resident

Consumer Expenditures

Supportable

Square Feet

Current Study Area

Occupied Retail Square

Feet

Westside Study

Area $372,769,436 1,500,000+/- 820,000

DEMAND

Source: Bleakly Advisory Group

RETAIL SPENDING & SUPPORTABLE SQUARE FEET

Current residents spending supports over 600,000 SF of retail space outside of the Study Area


The difference between retai l demand and supply represents an opportunity gap.

The posit ive values by store type in the area signif ies “leakage” of retai l spending to locat ions outside of the local market area.

Nearly al l store categories in the Study Area show retai l demand potential to capture retai l spending “leakage” back into the Study Area.

Opportunity Gap – Retail Stores, Westside Study Area

-$20,000,000 -$10,000,000 $0 $10,000,000 $20,000,000 $30,000,000 $40,000,000

Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores

Electronics & Appliances Stores

Building Material, Garden Equip Stores

Grocery Stores

Health & Personal Care Stores

Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, Music Stores

General Merchandise Stores

Miscellaneous Store Retailers

Foodservice & Drinking Places

Current Over-Supply Current Under-Supply

DEMAND RETAIL OPPORTUNITY GAP ANALYSIS




DEMAND RETAIL OPPORTUNITY GAP ANALYSIS

Total Retail Opportunity Gap By

Block Group

Nearly al l block groups west of Lowery Blvd. show opportunit ies to capture retai l leakage.

Source: ESRI


1

2

3 4

5

6 7 8

9

10

1. 17,400 2. 17,300 3. 3,750

4. 8,270 5. 15,800 6. 4,200

7. 13,000 8. 5,090 9. 8,130

10. 22,800

2014 GADOT Traffic Counts (ADT - Avg. Daily Trips)

DEMAND TRAFFIC COUNTS

Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from GDOT

Traff ic counts show that Study Area roads are general ly local-serving.

National retai lers typical ly seek at least 15,000 ADT and above for new store placement.

Lower traffic counts provide a challenge to attract retail in many Study Area locations.

Northside Drive provides the heaviest auto traff ic counts in the Study Area (22,000+ ADT).


OVERVIEW

Year Total SF Vacant SF % Vacant Annual

Absorption Avg Rent

2015 913,894 94,327 10.3% 500 $ 6.24

2014 913,894 82,677 9.0% (11,650) $ 6.24

2013 913,894 88,367 9.7% 5,690 $ 6.39

2012 913,894 132,600 14.5% 44,233 $ 6.67

2011 913,894 111,041 12.2% (21,559) $ 6.34

2010 909,894 119,800 13.2% 12,759 $ 5.75

2009 907,734 118,670 13.1% 1,030 $ 6.92

2008 907,734 110,370 12.2% (8,300) $ 7.91

2007 907,734 40,800 4.5% (69,570) $ 6.35


Total SF 913,894 61,411,089

Avg. SF/Bldg. 9,422 12,683

Vacant SF 94,327 3,750,077

% Vacant 10.3% 6.1%

2015 Absorption (SF) 500 103,405

Avg. Rent Per SF $ 6.24 $ 15.55

SUPPLY

Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from CoStar

The local retai l market has been relatively stagnant over the past eight years, which, given the population decl ine in the area, is better than might be expected.

The retai l market in the Study Area has the potential to improve in the near future given the projected level of attention and investments that are currently being made by government, corporate and philanthropic entit ies.

Study Area Retail Market History

Study Area & Atlanta Current Retail Market


Downtown

Atlanta

Study Area

3-Mile Radius

from

MLK/Lowery

0

366,000

Based on Data from CoStar

SUPPLY

While retai l demand general ly outpaces supply within the Study Area boundaries, s ignif icant retai l nodes are located nearby, which attract local resident spending. These areas inc lude:

The Walmart at Howell Mill Rd.

Atlantic Station

The Mall at West End

RETAIL LOCATION HEAT MAP

Retail Square Feet


The Study Area’s share of the c ity ’s retai l space has remained relat ively stable, dropping by approximately 0.2% over the past decade.

1.0%

1.1%

1.2%

1.3%

1.4%

1.5%

1.6%

1.7%

1.8%

2000Q1

2001Q1

2002Q1

2003Q1

2004Q1

2005Q1

2006Q1

2007Q1

2008Q1

2009Q1

2010Q1

2011Q1

2012Q1

2013Q1

2014Q1

2015Q1

QTD

Total SF

Occupied SF

Study Area Share of City of Atlanta Retail Square Feet

STUDY AREA SHARE OF RETAIL VS. CITY OF ATLANTA

SUPPLY

Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from CoStar


Since the onset of the Great Recession retai l vacancy rates in the Study Area have remained above the c ity of At lanta rate, general ly 9% -10%.

VACANCY

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2000Q1

2001Q1

2002Q1

2003Q1

2004Q1

2005Q1

2006Q1

2007Q1

2008Q1

2009Q1

2010Q1

2011Q1

2012Q1

2013Q1

2014Q1

2015Q1

QTD

Study Area

City of Atlanta

SUPPLY

Source: Bleakly Advisory Group,

based on data from CoStar


Retai l rents in the Study Area have remained signif icantly lower than citywide rents since 2008, and below national/regional rates – typical ly $15-$20/SF.

AVERAGE RENT

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 QTD


SUPPLY

Source: Bleakly Advisory Group,

based on data from CoStar


ANNUAL ABSORPTION

(100,000)

(50,000)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(500,000)

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Study Area Annual Retail Space Absorption

City of Atlanta Annual Retail Space Absorption

SUPPLY

Source: Bleakly

Advisory Group, based

on data from CoStar

Although local retai l space absorption has been modest over the past decade, the future planned improvements in the area have the potential to accelerate future absorption trends.


STUDY AREA ASSESSMENT


S ign i f i cant locat ion: in the hear t o f the At lanta reg ion

Access to outs ide consumer support

Var iety o f locat ions for a var iety o f reta i lers

Support ive communi ty w i th deep commercia l h i s tory

STUDY AREA ASSESSMENT

Strengths

Challenges

Opportunities

Lack ing demographics (househo ld dens i ty, incomes) to att ract w ide range o f nat iona l reta i lers

Lower t raf f ic counts on major ar ter ia l s

Few larger s i tes for addi t iona l reta i l deve lopment

Histor i ca l l y lag g ing per formance o f cur rent reta i l o f fer ings

Lack o f concentrated commercia l presence

Lack o f employment and tour i st o f fer ings wi th in the S tudy Area

Leverage new investment and attent ion in the area to att ract addi t iona l reta i lers at key cata ly t i c s i tes

Recapture a por t ion o f reta i l l eakage wi th demand f rom new growth

Redeve lopment at centra l ne ighborhood locat ions prov ide smal ler -sca le potent ia l , whi le locat ions near the new stad ium and the Congress Center prov ide la rger -sca le potent ia l opportunit ies .


RETAIL MARKET DEMAND POTENTIAL STATISTICAL DEMAND

Additional

Outside Support

•Current Expenditure (Demand)

•Current Retail Sales (Supply)

$ Leakage By Store Type =

Opportunity Gap

•Expected Sales per Square Foot by Store Type for Current and Future Households

Potential Gross

Square Feet Potential Capture

Rate

Future retail potential estimates are based on statistical demand modeling as diagrammed below:

Study Area

Future

Retail

Potential


RETAIL STORE TYPE EXAMPLES FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES

Miscellaneous Store Retailers

Example: Florist Local Business/Service Space

Laundry / Dry Cleaners Sporting Goods

Food / Restaurants

Community Health Space


RETAIL STORE TYPE EXAMPLES FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES

Home Furnishings

Electronics

Health and Personal Care

Building Material, Garden Equipment Clothing

General Merchandise


Business incubators can be essentia l to creating entrepreneurs in the local area, who in turn, wil l occupy local commercial real estate.

Business incubators nurture the development of early stage and new companies, helping them survive and grow during the start -up period, when they are most vulnerable.

To encourage business growth and job creation in the c ity, Invest At lanta works with businesses to f ind opportunit ies that wil l help them thrive. Invest At lanta can be an act ive resource to any business for ventures within the c ity l imits .

Kent Spencer, Manager of Business Retention & Expansion

BUSINESS INCUBATOR

https://blog.galaxyweblinks.com/know-how-business-incubator-

can-help-launch-your-startup/

Innovation Depot, Birmingham, AL


The Study Area has the potential to add 106,500 – 124,000 square feet of new retai l offerings over the next f ive years.

FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL – WESTSIDE STUDY AREA

These new offerings wil l need to attract:

Additional spending from current residents

Capture of new resident spending

Capture of spending from outside consumers to events at GWCC & Georgia Dome

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

Pote

ntia

l F

utu

re S

q. F

eet


New Retail Potential by Store Type

Store Type

Home Furnishings Stores 3,000 - 3,500

Electronics Stores 3,000 - 3,750

Health and Personal Care Stores 5,500 - 6,750

Building Material, Garden Equip Stores 6,000 - 6,500

Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores 6,500 - 7,750

Miscellaneous Store Retailers 6,000 - 7,000

Local Serving Office / Health 19,500 - 23,750

Laundry and Dry Cleaning 6,000 - 7,000

Food/Beverage Stores 23,500 - 25,750

Restaurants 17,500 - 20,000

Total Square Feet 106,500 - 124,250

Sq. Foot Range


Current households in the Study Area

represent over half of the potential market audience for future retai l in the area.

Approximately 2,000 new households have the potential to move to the Study Area in the next f ive years, based on the recent Residential Market Analysis conducted for the Westside Future Fund. These households could support 15% -20% of the potential new retai l in the area.

Approximately one-quarter of the potential new retai l would be supported by demand

from “outside consumers .”

Local Employees

Mercedes-Benz Stadium & Ga. World Congress Center attendees.

FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL MARKET AUDIENCES

58% 17%

25% Current Households

Future Households

Outside Support

Market Support


“OUTSIDE” RETAIL SUPPORT

Category of Event

Total Number of Out-of-State Visitor

Days

Average Daily Expenditures Per Out-

of State Visitor

GWCC 1,361,762 $ 258.34

Trade Shows 812,637 $ 292.52

Trade Show/Corp 90,999 $ 250.22

Convention w/o exhibits - Conferences 130,719 $ 202.69

Amateur Sports - Large 226,464 $ 197.10

Amateur Sports - Local 13,943 $ 245.85

Graduations 7,503

Consumer Shows 59,029 $ 169.84

General Meetings 20,468 $ 234.43

Georgia Dome 848,773 $ 301.83

Spectator Events 789,609 $ 309.20

General Meetings 59,164 $ 203.41

Total 2,210,535

Support from attendees to Mercedes -Benz Stadium and the Georgia World Congress Center provide potential to support and enhance Study Area opportunities.

Assuming $100/day of retail and restaurant expenditures by out -of-state visitors, these attendees represent and additional potential market of $221 mill ion annually that is currently not captured in the Study Area.

An attractive and convenient destination nearby in the Study Area could capture up to 5% of this spending, and thus support approximately 50,000 SF retail and restaurant space.

Source: Georgia World Congress Center Authority

Implementing multiple solutions for pedestrians to cross Northside Drive wil l be key, although locations in Castleberry Hil l provide immediate access to the new stadium.


Because each Westside neighborhood is unique with varying population, infrastructure and building environments, the potential future retail opportunities also vary. Estimated future square foot potential is shown at right.

These future estimates are subject to change due to the dynamic nature of the local market area. Changing development scenarios within a particular neighborhood could cause the potential space allocations to shift from one location to another.

FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL – WESTSIDE STUDY AREA

Boone Corridor 6,500 - 7,750

English Ave. 4,000 - 6,250

Vine City 12,000 - 14,000

Ashview Heights 6,500 - 7,250

AUC 13,000 - 15,000

Castleberry 22,000 - 25,250

Northside Drive 42,500 - 48,750

TOTAL 106,500 - 124,250

Sq. Foot Range


New Retail Potential by Neighborhood


Retai l offer ings at the Boone/Lowery intersect ion can be expanded to include Miscel laneous Store Retai lers (such as Flor ists) , Laundry, Restaurants and other options.

The new Mims Park can help attract s imilar complementary offer ings.

The Belt l ine wil l add addit ional retai l potential upon ful l development.

BOONE CORRIDOR / MIMS PARK FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL

Joseph E. Boone Blvd.

Joseph E

. Low

ery

Blv

d.

Future

BeltLine

Mims

Park

Total New Retail Potential: Boone Corridor

Potential Location for New Retail

Store Type






Sq. Foot Range

Current GDOT Traffic Counts Joseph E. Lowery: 11,100 ADT Joseph E. Boone: 5,300 ADT


Retai l offer ings at the J.P. Brawley/ C.M. Alexander intersection can supplement current smaller-scale retai l offer ings to include Local Serving Off ice and Restaurants.

A potential entrepreneur ial incubator could also be located in the histor ic St . Mark AME structure, this wil l help to drive retai l demand.

ENGLISH AVENUE FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL

Cameron M. Alexander Blvd.

Joseph E

. Low

ery

Blv

d.

Total New Retail Potential: English Ave.

First St. Mark AME

Jam

es P

. B

raw

ley

Dr.


Current GDOT Traffic Counts Not Available

Store Type




Sq. Foot Range


Histor ic Wests ide Vi l lage and the Ashby Stat ion transit shed provide opportunit ies for addit ional retai l offer ings across a range of store types.

VINE CITY FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL

M.L.K. Jr. Drive Joseph E

. Low

ery

Blv

d.

Total New Retail Potential: Vine City

Jam

es P

. B

raw

ley

Dr.


Store Type










Sq. Foot Range

Current GDOT Traffic Counts Joseph E. Lowery: 13,500 ADT MLK Drive: 8,750 ADT


While retai l potentia l is l ikely modest in the short-term in Ashview Heights/Washington Park due to intervening nearby opportunit ies in Vine City and the AUC area, a redevelopment of off ice propert ies on the south side of the 900 block of MLK Drive could prompt addit ional demand.

ASHVIEW HEIGHTS /WASHINGTON PARK

Total New Retail Potential: Ashview Heights/ Washington Park

Store Type




Sq. Foot Range


T he 7 ,500+/ - fu l l - t ime students at the At lanta Un iv. C enter inst i tut ions prov ide potent ia l support for a range of add i t iona l reta i l opportuni t ies at or near campus.

Assuming $8,000 annual expenditures per student, AUC students support approximately 200,000 SF of retail , with potential to capture a greater portion than current in the local area.

At lanta Hous ing Author i ty (AHA) has proposed a redevelopment concept for h i stor i c Roosevel t Ha l l that cou ld prov ide space for a port ion o f the future reta i l potent ia l .

AUC FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL Total New Retail Potential: AUC

Store Type








Sq. Foot Range

AHA Choice

Neighborhoods

Future Scholars

Landing

Development

Current GDOT Traffic Counts Joseph E. Lowery: 17,600 ADT

566 new

residential

units

Joseph E

. Low

ery

Blv

d.

ATL Student Movement Blvd.


Although approx imately 20,000 SF of retai l is currently vacant in the Cast leberry Hi l l area, the opening of Mercedes -Benz Stadium should provide an opportunity to grow the retai l market.

Many older buildings can be repurposed for new retail uses.

A mix of future retai l offer ings have the potential to meet the needs of the local residents, draw stadium and Congress Center attendees, and draw regional ly due to Northside Drive accessibi l i ty.

CASTLEBERRY HILL FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL

Total New Retail Potential: Castleberry Hill

Mercedes

- Benz

Stadium


Current GDOT Traffic Counts Northside Dr. @ Stadium: 29,300 ADT

Store Type

Home Furnishings Stores 3,000 3,500



Building Material, Garden Equip Stores 6,000 - 6,500








Sq. Foot Range


Northside Drive has the potential to attract larger national retai lers and can serve as a large retai l node for Study Area residents, as well as attract stadium and Congress Center attendees.

Multip le larger formats, including a smaller grocery store could be integrated into a “Retai l/Mixed Use Destination .” This destinat ion could serve as a beacon for outside spending support, which would help provide goods and services for local residents.

Examples of “Retail/Mixed Use Destinations”

Reading Market, Philadelphia

Ponce City Market, Atlanta

NORTHSIDE DRIVE FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL

Total New Retail Potential: Northside Drive


Current GDOT Traffic Counts Northside Dr. @ Stadium: 29,300 ADT

Store Type



Other General Merchandise Stores 8,000 - 10,000



Sporting Goods Stores 2,000 - 2,500



Total Square Feet 42,500 48,750

Sq. Foot Range

Mercedes

- Benz

Stadium


RETAIL RECOMMENDATIONS:

Key Elements of a Coordinated Retail Strategy for the Study Area:

Create clusters of retail that serve community needs and leverage current infrastructure and investments

Attract a “critical mass” of small-scale retail at key transportation intersections.

Smaller local nodes could be anchored by small “pop -up” food markets that rotate locations through the week. Would need incentives, possibly through Invest Atlanta, to provide “seed capital” for the spaces.

Retail offerings could be supplemented by small community medical -related facilities that will drive daily demand to the area. Explore partnerships with local medical schools.

Retail nodes in Castleberry/Northside Drive can provide larger retail concentration due to potential to attract outside consumers. Local residents will benefit with the expanded opportunities.

Grow the retail sector by retaining more of the current expenditure “leakage”

Focus on food, services and neighborhood needs.

Capture more student and faculty spending.


RETAIL RECOMMENDATIONS

Key Elements of a Coordinated Retail Strategy for the Study Area:

Attract more retail shoppers in the area through continued growth in “rooftops”

“Retail Follows Rooftops”

Long-range objective: Double the number of households to increase, not only the viability of the area, but also generate more self -sustaining retail demand.

Seek out new neighbors and embrace them by promoting new housing in various formats—The Westside neighborhoods have the potential to become a laboratory for new housing activity.

Leverage the considerable support structure

Invest Atlanta and private entities, such as the Westside Future Fund, are prepared to provide assistance in local redevelopment initiatives . Monetary and social enterprise incentives will often be necessary to attract market opportunities.


RETAIL SITE SELECTION PRIMER


RETAIL REALITY: SITE SELECTION

Typical Challenges of New Store Development Based on National Case Studies

Crime and/or the perception of crime

Market data often misrepresents the economic potential and purchasing power

Securing appropriate development sites is more challenging in urban areas

Increased development costs in the form of higher construction costs and cumbersome approval and permitting processes



DEMAND

SUPPLY

SITE

SPACE RETAIL SITE

SELECTION

WHY DO STORES GO WHERE THEY GO?

How many people might shop there?

Demographics:

# of Households

Incomes

Etc.

What competition is

there already?

How does the

competition

perform?

Which location can generate the

most sales?

- Traffic Counts

- Parking

- Access

Which space best

suits retailer’s

needs?

Is space

available?


Demographics – population, household incomes (or total purchasing power), characteristics, future growth Retailers need to attract a certain number of people at certain income levels in order to survive

DEMAND

Store Type

Population Necessary

to Support

Corner Store 500

Convenience Store 2,000

Delicatessan and Bakery 3,000

Snack Bar 3,000

Beauty Parlor 3,000

Drug Store 5,000

Hardware Store 5,000

Bank Branch 5,000

Supermarket 10,000

Thresholds of Community Stores (Rules of Thumb)



National retai lers typical ly fol low demand with differing requirements for their stores.

Westside Study Area meets some, not all, of the national chain requirements.

Examples (for illustrative purposes):

Store Trade Area Population Location/Other

National Drug

Store

2 mile radius 20,000 Intersection of two

main streets with

significant traffic

counts

Grocery Store 3 mile radius

20,000+ On high-visibility,

high traffic corridor

Pet Supermarket 3 mile radius 50,000 25,000 daily vehicle

traffic count

Firehouse Subs 3 mile radius 20,000+ $35,000 median

household income

Denny's 3 mile radius 40,000 30,000 daily vehicle

traffic count

RETAIL REALITY: SITE SELECTION SITE

Real Estate

Westside Future Fund Retail Market Analysis June 2016