#BNews15

The Anthologist

Thursday 5 March 2015

Welcome to

Breakfast News

2015

#BNews15

Director, GTI

Simon Rogers

#BNews15

2015 new partnership

#BNews15

Thursday 5 March

Is it time to make a more meaningful connection?

Thursday 30 April

Gen Z

Thursday 25 June

Youth Marketing

Thursday 17 September

Challenges when onboarding Millennials

Thursday 26 November

Conclusive Research 2015 dates

#BNews15

Managing Director,

Havas People

Gareth Edwards

#BNews15

#BNews15

We want to hear from you via twitter

#BNews15

How do we calculate our index?We ask students two questions:

1. How long do you think it will take

you to find your first graduate

job?

2. How many applications do you

think you’ll have to make?

We then use their answers to produce

our Confidence Index scores.

Last year we reported on

student confidence levels at

every Breakfast News event.

This year we’re doing it

again… but bigger and better.

#BNews15

The overall confidence of UK studentsQuarter 1 – redesigned for 2015

The new Confidence Index scale:What does an ‘average’

confidence score mean in

2015?

Number of job

applications:

22Months to find

employment:

5

120

160

80

100

40

AVERAGE confidence

More confident than average

“I’ll get a job in five minutes.”

Less confident than average

“Help.”

#BNews15

Confidence levels 2015: key demographic findings

There’s only a small disparity

between male and female

confidence levels this quarter

Finalists are feeling

good about their

chances this

quarter – quite a

contrast to last

June!

102

FresherFinalist2nd year

100 10199100

#BNews15

Confidence analysis: subject of study

Humanities

Technical

#BNews15

Confidence analysis: social mobility

Our social mobility

analysis shows an

astoundingly

consistent pattern of

confidence:

Disadvantaged

social group = one

point below average

confidence

99 99 99

State

educated

101

Privately

educated

101 101

Parents

went to uni

Parents

didn’t go to

uni

Receives

means-tested

funding

No

funding

#BNews15

The UK trendence graduate barometer 2015 provided all of the data

for this quarter’s Confidence Index

44,000

27,04023,045

Our biggest sample ever:

Our sample includes:

and more...

Diversity cuts

126 Universities

Gender cuts:

42% male

58% female

Social profile:

Privately educated

State educated

Ethnicity:

White

Asian

Black/African

/Caribbean

IT students

Specialist editions:

First Years

Penultimate Years

Finalists

Subject

of

study

Engineering students

Law students

#BNews15

Our record research sample

19,000 in Business/related (+34%)

16,200 in Engineering (+92%)

3,306 in IT (+93%)

5,604 in Law (+30%)

University growth

Top 30 unis: 28,377 54%

Success stories

Oxbridge: 2,606 20%

Edinburgh: 2,060 396%

Liverpool: 1,667 132%

#BNews15

A series of career products and services to support school leavers plan their professional career

path via university, higher apprenticeship or school leaver scheme

• Leveraging over 25 years of producing careers advice products and services for the graduate market

• Meeting the growing need for career advice for 15 to 18 year olds

• Following detailed research through the trendence School Leaver Barometer and the parental influence

report, focus groups and feedback from key stakeholders

More to come in 2015. Keep up to date at targetcareers.co.uk or follow @group_gti

#BNews15

#BNews15

We are filling seats

from the front – to buy

tickets or a table go to

targetjobsawards.co.uk

or talk to Grace Banks

#BNews15

Today’s Agenda

Is it time to make a more meaningful connection?

Welcome Simon Rogers

The economic forecast Declan Curry, Broadcaster, Business & Economics journalist

Inspiring through purpose Kate Robertson, Global President & UK Group Chairman, Havas Worldwide, Co-founder of One Young World

Preparing for the millennialsStephen Isherwood, CEO, AGR

Are they ready? Rt. Hon David Blunkett MP

#BNews15

Declan Curry, Broadcaster,

Business & Economics journalist

THE ECONOMIC

FORECAST

#BNews15

DEFLATION LOOMING IN UK ?

• CPI Consumer Prices: 0.3% Jan ‘15

TARGET: 2.0%

was 0.5% Dec ’14

was 4.2% in 2012

… lowest ever CPI figure on this measure

… falling food, fuel & petrol prices

… expected to turn negative by April

#BNews15

WHY ARE PRICES FALLING?

• Brent crude: $59.2 per barrel

DOWN 46% in a year

WAS $145 per barrel in July 2008

Stronger £ vs € makes European food cheaper:

• £1 = €1.30; up 7.8% on prev year

• BUT: £1 = US$ 1.51; DOWN 8.1% on year

#BNews15

EUROPE DEFLATING ALREADY

• Euro-using nations HICP: -0.2% Dec ‘14

TARGET HICP: +2.0%

• Germany HICP: +0.1% Dec ’14

• Greece HICP: -2.5% Dec ’14

• USA HICP: +0.9% Nov ’14

• G7: +1.3% Nov ‘14

• OECD: +1.5% Nov ‘14

#BNews15

GETTING RICH V. SLOWLY

% change from same period in previous year:

• UK avg wages: +1.7% Sept-Nov y/y

WAS: +1.4% Aug-Oct

(Inflation = +1.2%; wages overtake prices at last !!)

• Private weekly total pay: +2.1% Sept-Nov y/y

• Public weekly total pay: +0.7% Sept-Nov y/y

#BNews15

EVEN MORE NEW JOBS

• 30.90 million people in paid work: Oct-Dec ‘14

WAS: 30.80 million : Sept-Nov ’14

• 608,000 new jobs over previous year

• Employment rate: 73.2%

joint highest since records started in 1971

#BNews15

JOBS FOR ALL AGES

(3 mth period September – November 2014)

(% change on previous year)

• 16-24 year olds: +2.2%

• 25-49 year olds: +1.4%

• 50-64 year olds: +5.0%

• Over 65s: +1.9%

#BNews15

QUALITY OF JOBS

(3 mth period September – November 2014)

• Full time jobs: 22.52 million

UP 42,000 on qtr

• Part time jobs: 8.28 million

DOWN SLIGHTLY

• 1.32 million part-timers would like full-time jobs

• Fewer than 3% of jobs are zero-hours contracts

#BNews15

UNEMPLOYMENT

• 1.86 million people unemployed: Oct-Dec ‘14

DOWN: 486,000 from previous year

• Unemployment rate: 5.7%

• Youth unemployment DOWN 188,000 over year

• Rate down from 19.9 to 16.2%

#BNews15

GROWTH

• UK GDP: +0.5% Q4 ’14

was: +0.7% Q3 ‘14

… slowed slightly, but reviving already

• Avg independent fcst: +2.6% 2014

• Avg independent fcst: +2.6% 2015

#BNews15

WHAT’S GROWING ?

• Manufacturing: + 0.1% Q4 ’14

WAS: +0.3% Q3 ‘14

• Construction (shrinking): - 1.8% Q4 ’14

WAS: +1.6% Q3 ‘14

• Services: + 0.8% Q4 ’14

WAS: +0.8% Q3 ‘14

(Services = 79% of economic output; 83% of jobs)

#BNews15

INTERNATIONAL GROWTH

• USA: +2.7% yearly Q3 ’14

• UK: +2.6% yearly Q3 ’14

… (NB: UK overtook USA in Q4)

• G7 (7 biggest industrials): +1.6% yearly Q3 ’14

• Germany: +1.2% yearly Q3 ’14

• Euro-using nations: +0.8% yearly Q3 ’14

• Japan: -1.2% yearly Q3 ’14

#BNews15

OECD GROWTH FORECASTS

• USA: +3.1% 2015

• UK: +2.7% 2015

• Germany: +1.1% 2015

• Euro-using nations: +1.1% 2015

(Europe growing, but weak; driven by Germany)

• Japan: +0.8% 2015

(Japan out of recession again …)

#BNews15

ANY OTHER BUSINESS

• House prices: increases slowing …

+6.8% a year – Nationwide (Jan ‘15)

+9.9% a year – Halifax (Jan ‘15)

• Retail sales:

up 2.3% in a year (using 3-month rolling avg)

WATCH ! impact of Black Friday

grocers squeezed hard by falling food prices

#BNews15

GLOOM STARTS TO CLEAR ?

• Business confidence: positive but fragile

more manuf expect output to rise, not fall

but CBI survey down 6 points in a year

• Consumer confidence: finally positive

GFK NOP survey up 8 points in a year

… but will election dampen confidence ?

#BNews15

GOVERNMENT DEBT

New yearly loans:

• 2014/15 deficit (PSNB): £91 billion (fcast)

WAS: £153 billion 2009/10

Accumulated debt mountain:

• 2014/15 net debt: £1,489 billion (fcast)

= 80.4% of GDP

…. Still “no money left”.

#BNews15

Kate Robertson, Global President & UK Group Chairman, Havas Worldwide, Co-founder of One Young World

INSPIRING

THROUGH

PURPOSE

#BNews15

Stephen Isherwood, CEO, AGR

PREPARING

FOR THE

MILLENNIALS

#BNews15

Fewer

18yr olds

for the next

5 years

#BNews15

Graduate vacancy changes

11.9%

4.3%

4.3%

-8.2%

1.7%

8.9%

-8.9%

0.6%

12.7%

5.1%

5.1%

15.5%

-3.4%

-6.5%

14.6%

14.7%

2015 (predicted)

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

#BNews15

The Resolution Foundation

#BNews15

Unfilled vacancies by sector5.4%

11.8%

11.1%

7.7%

7.3%

5.9%

5.9%

4.8%

3.9%

3.4%

2.8%

2.7%

1.4%

1.4%

3.7%

All employers

IT/Telecommunications

Energy, water or utility…

Construction company or…

Consulting or business…

Law firm

Insurance company

Accountancy or…

Public sector

Engineering or industrial…

FMCG company

Retail

Banking or financial services

Investment bank or fund…

Other

#BNews15

Unfilled vacancies by sector5.4%

11.8%

11.1%

7.7%

7.3%

5.9%

5.9%

4.8%

3.9%

3.4%

2.8%

2.7%

1.4%

1.4%

3.7%

All employers

IT/Telecommunications

Energy, water or utility…

Construction company or…

Consulting or business…

Law firm

Insurance company

Accountancy or…

Public sector

Engineering or industrial…

FMCG company

Retail

Banking or financial services

Investment bank or fund…

Other

#BNews15

Only 45% of employers

confident they will find enough highly skilled employees in the

future

Source: CBI report ‘Tomorrow’s Growth’

#BNews15

5% of

students interested in Accounting

and Financial Management

trendence 2014

#BNews15

#BNews15

#BNews15

ILM guide to managing millennialsCommunication

Organisations can help equip graduates and managers with the skills to communicate more effectively with each other. Regular, open conversations about expectations and ambitions, and how better to align these to the role and organisation, will go someway to bridging the disconnect between managers and graduates.

Empowerment and autonomy

Graduates are fiercely independent and do not want to be closely managed. Employers have an opportunity to evolve their management models and find ways of giving greater autonomy to graduates, while retaining best practice elements such as objective setting and performance feedback. They must encourage and enable leaders to manage the person, not the task.

Coach rather than manage

The current generation of graduates want to be coached rather than controlled and directed: 56% of graduates want their manager to be their coach. But while three quarters of managers believe they are a coach, only one quarter of graduates agree. There is a clear opportunity for organisations to invest in learning and development to help managers develop their coaching skills.

Manage career expectations

Organisations can improve the way that they manage graduate expectations about career, salary and status. Managers may need targeted learning and development to help them achieve this. For their part, graduates should be realistic about the prospects of early advancement, and be willing to work with managers to find a mutually satisfactory solution.

The benefit of experience

The research findings suggest that Generation Y graduates would benefit from more work experience prior to taking on a full-timeposition. Finding ways to include elements of real world practical application and work experience into degree programmes is an issue that needs to be addressed by both higher education and employers.

#BNews15

Remember the three ‘R’s

• Recruit

• Reward

• Retain

#BNews15

Your

organisation

needs

YOU

#BNews15

Rt. Hon David Blunkett MP

ARE THEY

READY?

#BNews15

Next event

Thursday 30 April