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people to jobs, jobs to peopleglobal mobility and labor migrationBelgium
RandstadBelgium16/8/2017
finding the ‘sweet spot’ for collective action on global mobility and labor migration
People to jobs, jobs to people 2
available talent
economicinterest
resources political will
collectiveaction on
talent mobility
240+ million migrants worldwidemain migration corridors
People to jobs, jobs to people 3
all skills in ‘neighboring’ states
• European Union
• former Soviet Union
low and medium skilled
• latin America > north America
• Africa and Middle East > western Europe
• southern Asia > Gulf states
• southeastern Asia > Australia
high skilled
• southern and eastern Asia > north America, Australia and United Kingdom
global mobility and labor migration
• the need for global mobility and labor migration
• demographic challenge
• skill shortages
• global skills mismatch
• Randstad-IZA study ‘people to jobs, jobs to people’
• what moves talent?
• projecting developments in labor supply and demand
• jobs to people? – assessing firm location choice behaviour
• key messages
• conclusions
People to jobs, jobs to people 4
demographic challengeaging populations and workforce losses
People to jobs, jobs to people 5
change in population 2015-2030 by age group (in millions)
baseline (medium) variant zero-migration variant
-27
-24
-21
-18
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
0-14 15-64 65+
United States
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0-14 15-64 65+
Germany
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0-14 15-64 65+
Japan
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0-14 15-64 65+
Belgium
employment trendsin Belgium the number of low skilled jobs is rapidly diminishing while high skilled jobs are increasing fast
People to jobs, jobs to people 6
Source: Own calculations based on CEDEFOP, forecasting skill demand and supply
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Qualifications______________________________
Low
Medium
High
Broad sectors______________________________
Primary sector & utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Distribution & transport
Business & other services
Non-marketed services
Occupations______________________________
Legislators, senior officials and managers
Professionals
Technicians and associate professionals
Clerks
Service workers and shop and market sales workers
Skilled agricultural and fishery workers
Craft and related trades workers
Plant and machine operators and assemblers
Elementary occupations
employment trendsin thousands
2005 2015 2025
skill shortagesin Belgium 1.1 million new high-skilled workers are needed in the coming years as a result of expansion and aging
People to jobs, jobs to people 7
Source: Own calculations based on CEDEFOP, forecasting skill demand and supply
-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Qualifications______________________________
Low
Medium
High
Broad sectors______________________________
Primary sector & utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Distribution & transport
Business & other services
Non-marketed services
Occupations______________________________
Legislators, senior officials and managers
Professionals
Technicians and associate professionals
Clerks
Service workers and shop and market sales workers
Skilled agricultural and fishery workers
Craft and related trades workers
Plant and machine operators and assemblers
Elementary occupations
job opportunities 2013 - 2025in thousands
expansion demand replacement demand
responding to skill shortagesglobal mobility and labor migration is one part of the strategy to attract and retain the skills needed in the Future of Work
introduce strategic workforce planning
develop a talent
framework
extend the talent pool &
increase employability
temporary & virtual
mobility
ease migration & foster brain circulation
People to jobs, jobs to people 8
Create a decent flexible labor market with variation in contracts
Modernize social security arrangements Project talent supply and demand
Understand what talent wants Invest in education Target the young, blue collar and/or
migration background
Discover women and older employees Adapt retirement policies Increase day-care opportunities to allow
on- and off-ramping of parents
Create life-long cross-sectoral learninginstitutions
Build PPPs with private sector
Facilitate free flow of remittance Mutual skill recognition Ease skilled migration policies
global mismatch of talentthe skills are available, but not on the right location
9 People to jobs, jobs to people
‘people to jobs, jobs to people’research on global mobility and labor migration commissioned by Randstad from the IZA Institute of Labor Economics
contents:
• what moves talent?
• projecting developments in labor supply and demand
• jobs to people? – assessing firm location choice behaviour
• key messages
People to jobs, jobs to people 10
what moves talent?global high-skilled talent chooses country of destination based on high wages, use of English and low taxes
People to jobs, jobs to people 11
pull factors country of destination high-skilled impact
high average wage ++
English speaking ++
low tax-rates +
high unemployment benefits =
rigid employment protection -
union density -
high minimum wage -
pull factors country of destinationhigh-skilled
impact country rankout of 35 OECD countries
high average wage ++ 12 out of 34
English speaking ++ 16 out of 29
low tax-rates + 35 out of 35
high unemployment benefits = 7 out of 35
rigid employment protection - 22 out of 34
union density - 5 out of 34
high minimum wage - 7 out of 27
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Italy
Aust
ria
Gre
ece
Germ
any
Fin
land
Port
ugal
Spain
Belg
ium
Neth
erlands
Fra
nce
Denm
ark
United S
tate
s
Japan
Luxem
bourg
Cze
chia
Sw
eden
Norw
ay
Irela
nd
Aust
ralia
United K
ingdom
Canada
share of high-skilled migrants in total migrant population
what moves talent?highest shares of high-skilled migrants in Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia
People to jobs, jobs to people 12
data 2011, source: ‘people to jobs, jobs to people’, Randstad-IZA 2017
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Colo
mbia
Ukra
ine
Italy
Maro
cco
Iran
Pakis
tan
Rom
ania
United S
tate
s
Canada
Vie
tnam
Fra
nce
Russ
ian F
ed
Kore
a
Mexic
o
Pola
nd
Germ
any
United K
ingdom
Chin
a
Phili
ppin
es
India
Top source countries of high-skilled migrants
what moves talent?highest number of high-skilled migrants from Southern and Eastern Asia
People to jobs, jobs to people 13
data 2011, source: ‘people to jobs, jobs to people’, Randstad-IZA 2017
what moves talent?most labor migration is circular; less than a quarter intends to stay abroad for the rest of their life
People to jobs, jobs to people 14
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Few weeks
Few months
Few years
More years/not indef.
Rest of life
expected duration of stay abroad among respondentswith emigration intentions
Source: ‘people to jobs, jobs to people’, Randstad-IZA 2017
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
change in labor
forc
e
change in population
change in population and labor force 2015 to 2030
developments in labor supply and demanddependency ratios up: the size of the labor force is predicted to increase less or decrease more strongly than the overall population
People to jobs, jobs to people 15
Belgium
SwedenSwitzerland
USA
UK
France
Italy
NetherlandsGermany
Poland
Spain
dependency ratio down
labor force growth > population growth
Baseline scenario. Source: ‘people to jobs, jobs to people’, Randstad-IZA 2017
dependency ratio up
labor force growth < population growth
developments in labor supply and demandlosses in labor force mitigated by intensive migration and by increase of high-skilled workers who supply considerably more hours worked
People to jobs, jobs to people 16
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20
15
20
30
20
15
20
30
20
15
20
30
20
15
20
30
20
15
20
30
20
15
20
30
20
15
20
30
20
15
20
30
20
15
20
30
20
15
20
30
20
15
20
30
BE CH DE ES FR IT NL PL SE UK US
educational level of labor force
high-skilled medium-skilled low-skilled
Baseline scenario. Source: ‘people to jobs, jobs to people’, Randstad-IZA 2017
presence of suitable employees
access to qualified personnel already serves as a key
determinant of firms’ decision to offshore activities
Jobs to people?reasons for (re)location of firms
People to jobs, jobs to people 17
presence of competitors and
suppliers
quality of infrastructure
regional market potential
region’s GDP or purchasing
power
finding the ‘sweet spot’ for collective action on global mobility and labor migration
People to jobs, jobs to people 18
available talent
economicinterest
resources political will
collectiveaction on
talent mobility
people to jobs, jobs to peoplecollective action on talent mobility
People to jobs, jobs to people 19
available talent
economicinterest
resources political will
a balanced skill-related system
a robust and flexible framework, with clearly
defined immigration categories and objective eligibility criteria to spur
innovation, fill skills gaps and promote development
consult business
employers are in the best position to determine the skills and business models they need to effectively
achieve their objectives, and governments therefore need to actively consult with them
good institutions
national institutions have important effects on the size and the composition of the migrant population; strong incentives to create “good”
institutions to attract or retain skilled and productive
migrant workers in an increasingly global market
business advocacy
businesses should play a prominent role in advocating
fair and open migration policies, identifying policy
challenges and emphasizing the benefits of well-managed
migration
Thank you!
People to jobs, jobs to people 20
what moves talent?Ranking of competitors in the battle for global talent
People to jobs, jobs to people
Pull factors high average wage English speaking low tax-rates high unemployment benefits
rigid employment protection
union density high minimum wage
Impact ++ + + = - - -
Rank country in OECD-35
Rank Average annual wage(in $)
English proficiency(rate)
Tax wedge on wages (in %)
Unemployment benefits (rate)
Employment protection(rate)
Union density(in %)
Annual minimum wage(in $)
1 Switzerland 88,761 Australia 100.0 Chile 7.0 Iceland 87.95 Portugal 3.18 Iceland 85.2 Australia 25,644
2 Luxembourg 66,966 Canada 100.0 New Zealand 17.9 Finland 72.37 Czech Republic 2.92 Finland 69.8 Luxembourg 25,092
3 Norway 65,037 Ireland 100.0 Mexico 20.1 Luxembourg 69.54 Netherlands 2.82 Sweden 67.5 Netherlands 21,936
4 Denmark 63,674 New Zealand 100.0 Switzerland 21.8 Denmark 69.00 Germany 2.68 Denmark 67.2 New Zealand 21,798
5 Australia 59,407 United Kingdom 100.0 Israel 22.1 Netherlands 63.88 Italy 2.68 Belgium 55.0 United Kingdom 21,353
6 United States 58,714 United States 100.0 Korea 22.2 Switzerland 62.45 Chile 2.63 Norway 53.3 Ireland 21,108
7 Iceland 58,127 Netherlands 72.2 Ireland 27.1 Belgium 61.90 Sweden 2.61 Italy 36.9 Belgium 20,352
8 Ireland 52,532 Denmark 71.5 Australia 28.6 Norway 60.74 Slovenia 2.60 Luxembourg 32.8 France 19,483
9 Netherlands 51,442 Sweden 70.8 United Kingdom 30.8 Ireland 60.25 France 2.38 Ireland 31.2 Germany 19,072
10 United Kingdom 49,677 Norway 68.5 Canada 31.4 Austria 60.01 Austria 2.37 Austria 28.0 Canada 17,636
11 Canada 49,590 Finland 66.6 United States 31.7 France 59.81 Korea 2.37 Canada 27.2 United States 14,892
12 Belgium 47,537 Luxembourg 63.2 Japan 32.4 Slovenia 54.56 Norway 2.33 United Kingdom 26.0 Israel 14,706
13 Sweden 46,164 Austria 62.1 Iceland 34.0 Germany 50.71 Turkey 2.31 Israel 22.8 Japan 13,836
14 Finland 45,353 Germany 61.6 Poland 35.8 Canada 49.34 Luxembourg 2.25 Greece 22.8 Korea 13,241
15 Austria 45,115 Poland 61.5 Norway 36.2 Japan 41.89 Poland 2.23 Slovenia 22.0 Slovenia 10,533
16 New Zealand 43,125 Belgium 60.9 Denmark 36.5 Sweden 41.30 Denmark 2.20 New Zealand 20.9 Spain 10,192
17 Germany 41,716 Switzerland 60.2 Netherlands 37.5 Israel 39.32 Finland 2.17 Portugal 18.9 Greece 8,905
18 France 40,471 Portugal 59.7 Turkey 38.1 Australia 36.22 Greece 2.12 Germany 18.3 Portugal 8,180
19 Israel 33,799 Czech Republic 59.1 Luxembourg 38.4 Korea 34.89 Spain 2.05 Australia 18.2 Turkey 6,742
20 Japan 33,542 Hungary 58.7 Estonia 38.9 United States 33.10 Israel 2.04 Japan 18.0 Poland 5,929
21 Italy 32,041 Slovak Republic 57.3 Spain 39.5 Czech Republic 32.81 Mexico 2.03 Netherlands 17.9 Estonia 5,714
22 Spain 30,476 Spain 56.7 Greece 40.2 Portugal 31.91 Belgium 1.89 Spain 17.1 Slovak Republic 5,418
23 Korea 29,979 Korea 54.9 Portugal 41.5 United Kingdom 27.61 Slovak Republic 1.84 Switzerland 16.2 Latvia 4,910
24 Slovenia 24,612 Italy 54.6 Slovak Republic 41.5 Italy 26.37 Estonia 1.81 Chile 15.3 Czech Republic 4,798
25 Greece 19,567 France 54.3 Latvia 42.6 New Zealand 24.67 Iceland 1.73 Czech Republic 14.3 Hungary 4,750
26 Portugal 18,153 Japan 51.7 Slovenia 42.7 Spain 23.19 Australia 1.67 Mexico 13.6 Chile 4,485
27 Chile 15,523 Chile 50.1 Sweden 42.8 Chile 22.18 Switzerland 1.60 Slovak Republic 13.6 Mexico 1,165
28 Estonia 15,082 Mexico 49.9 Czech Republic 43.0 Poland 21.11 Hungary 1.59 Poland 12.7 Austria
29 Slovak Republic 13,647 Turkey 47.9 Finland 43.8 Hungary 20.64 Ireland 1.40 United States 10.8 Denmark
30 Latvia 13,212 Estonia Austria 47.1 Slovak Republic 19.42 New Zealand 1.39 Hungary 10.7 Finland
31 Czech Republic 12,773 Greece Italy 47.8 Estonia 13.97 Japan 1.37 Korea 10.1 Iceland
32 Poland 12,257 Iceland France 48.1 Greece 12.97 United Kingdom 1.10 France 7.7 Italy
33 Hungary 10,660 Israel Hungary 48.2 Turkey 0.60 Canada 0.92 Turkey 7.0 Norway
34 Mexico 8,905 Latvia Germany 49.4 Mexico 0.00 United States 0.26 Estonia 6.1 Sweden
35 Turkey Slovenia Belgium 54.0 Latvia Latvia Latvia SwitzerlandSource OECD.stats: latest
available data 2015, UK 2014, NZ 2012
Source EF EPI: latest availabledata 2016
Source OECD.stats: latest available data 2016
Source OECD.stats: latestavailable data 2013
Source OECD.stats: latest available data 2013
Source OECD.stats: latest available data 2012
Source OECD.stats: latestavailable data 2016
21
key take-aways‘people to jobs, jobs to people’
• people to jobs - skill specific demandscoherent migration policies that account for skill-specific demands by the national economy, ease labor shortagesand lead to substantial benefits on growth and employment
• size and composition - good institutionsnational institutions have important effects on the sizeand the composition of the migrant population; policymakers have strong incentives to create “good” institutions to attract or retain skilled and productivemigrant workers in an increasingly global market
• jobs to people - offshoring activitiesaccess to qualified personnel already serves as a key determinant of firms’ decision to offshore activities; increased offshoring rather than relocation serves as firms’ response to skill shortages
People to jobs, jobs to people 22
conclusions & recommendations
for a new migration-based economy to take hold, the present, outdated infrastructure for managing migration will need to be totally re-designed
• a balanced skill-related system
it should include a robust and flexible framework, with clearly defined immigration categories and objective eligibility criteria to spur innovation, fill skills gaps and promote development
• consult business
employers are in the best position to determine the skills and business models they need to effectively achieve their objectives, and governments therefore need to actively consult with them
• business advocacy
businesses should play a prominent role in advocating fair and open migration policies, identifying policy challenges and emphasizing the benefits of well-managed migration
People to jobs, jobs to people 23