Infocus Mekong Research retail trends

Vietnam Consumer Retail Shifts

Wealth & Mobility

Ralf MatthaesManaging DirectorInfocus Mekong Research

www.ifmresearch.com 2

FMCG Value & Volume growth % 2013-2015

10.1

4.33.2

4.7

1.6 2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015

Urban Value / Volume Growth %

Value % Volume %

10.511.8

87.4

9.4

6.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015

Rural Value / Volume Growth %

Value % Volume %

Overall FMCG growth is down from last year, partially driven by a reduction of CPI (0.3% YoY end of November), but also largely due to limited increases in salaries, bonuses and a sense that consumers have different spending priorities.

source:

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19

11

2

4

15

12

4.23.1

02

46

810

1214

1618

20

2012 2013 2014 2015

FMCG Modern vs General Trade Value Growth (%)Modern General

Modern vs General Trade FMCG Value Growth (%)The past 3 years have seen a huge drop of both Modern & General FMCG value growth in urban Vietnam, indicating either saturation or consumers tightening spend for other trade offs. Modern Trade is showing a positive increase for the 1st time in years, though small.

source:










The Future of Shopping in HCMC










Present versus future shopping trends

68

61

5

6

21

7

6

26

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Shop in Future

Shop Now

Supermarket Traditional Convenience Wet Market

Q.1. Which of the following do you presently shop at Most often for groceries and which will you shop at most in the future?

Base: N = 200 HCMC

Convenience stores will see the largest future growth in HCMC followed by supermarkets, all at the expense of wet markets…










Modern Trade outlet with best overall offer

53

33

5 4 2 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Co.opmart Big C Metro Lotte Mart Maximark Other

Q.3 which for the following Modern trade stores has the best offer in terms of Price, selection, service, location and overall shopping experience?

Base: N = 200 HCMC

Co.opmart is the distinct leader followed by Big C, while Metro has seen a drop in preference.










Convenience store with best overall offer

27

22

18

10 10

5

8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Vin Mart Family mart Citimart Circle K Shop & Go B's Mart Other

Q.4 which for the following Convenience stores trade stores has the best offer in terms of Price, selection, service, location and overall shopping experience?

Base: N = 200 HCMC

Vin Mart and Family Mart rule the convenience roost, but the market is quit fragmented…










0

20

40

60

80My favorite place to shop

My most often shopped at

store

Has more reasonable prices

than other places

Has more range of products

than other places

Has more services than other

places

More secure than other places

Offer more promotions than

other places

Supermarkets / Hypermarket Wet markets Traditional

Modern trade = promotion, security and product range Traditional trade = reasonable price.

Base: N = 200 HCMC










Grocery shopping Phone order / Online / Smartphone

Ever shopped

77%

23%

Yes No

Future shopping intent

78

70

19

29

3

1

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

24-35 y

35-45 y

Yes Maybe No

Q.5 have you ever shopped for Groceries on-line, by telephone or smartphone and if the service were available, would you use?

Base: N = 200 HCMC

A surprising 77% have shopped for groceries via Phone, Mobile or On-line, while future intent is also strong










Preferred future shopping methodOn-line – order / Telephone – place order / Smartphone Order

Phone6%

On-line27%

Smartphone25%

Traditional Trade 1%

Modern trade31%

Convenience6%

Base: N = 200 HCMC

Shopping at Modern trade, On-line and smartphone look to be the preferred shopping means with smartphone having the largest growth.

25

14

10

9

9

8

7

6

6

5

5

0 10 20 30

Lazada

Hotdeal

KFC

Co.opmart

Cungmua

Nhommua

Adayroi.com

Tiki.vn

Foody.vn

Lotte Mart

Domino's

Most popular locations / SitesMost popular future shopping method

Wet Market4%

49%










Vietnam Supply Chain Participants Survey

Learn - Share - Network










Most important reason for selecting grocery store?

3530

149 7 5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Close to where I live product range Secure / trusted Better services Reasonable prices Better promotions

Close to where I live and product range were most important for CEO’s and supply chain professionals

Base: N = 44

During the seminar we asked the audience of supply chain professionals their opinions on key retail issues by smartphone survey and presented the results 30 minutes later. Here is what VNSC participants thought…










Present and future usage of virtual shopping means

Base: N = 44

Supply chain professionals have used on-line the most for shopping in the past, but will use smartphone for shopping more in the future.

74

30

44

16

40

9

51

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Online Phone order Smartphone order None of the above

Now Future










Greatest impact in retailing in near future

4240

14

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Increase of Online / Mobileshopping

Heavy competition due tonew players entering the

market

Trans Pacific Partnershipreducing import tariffs / Costs

of imported goods

Government regulationsprotecting local players

(keeping international playersout)

Supply chain professionals see the advent of Mobile / on-line shopping and the increase in completion from new players as being key changes in the future of retailing.

Base: N = 44










Retail Solutions

Mobile New ways to reach consumers

POD Different priorities on Maslow’s hierarchal needs

Security More focus on health and eating healthy

Transport Location becoming less critical to store choice

Convenience All in one concepts attracting shoppers










About us










Our differentiatorsWe focus on 3 core deliverables; Mobile Panel Market Research, Specialized Custom and Integrated Strategic Research, and have partnered with like-minded companies, who have established businesses with a true point of difference and a long and successful track record.

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any day, anytime

REAL TIME MEASUREMENTMeasures behaviour, not perceptions










Mobile offer

MYSTERY SHOPPING

Understand in-store performance and service levels using mobile. Ideal for audits and PoS measurement.

TACTICAL & IMMEDIATE RESPONSE (TAIR)

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Surveys can be shared via SMS to respondents or embedded in an app, branded or unbranded or emailed if required

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What is ?IFM Panel is a pre-recruited active, managed and representative smartphone panel, which includes over 190 core consumer data points

1.5 million active and cleaned contacts 100,000 intenders (expressed interest in joining) 30,000 and growing pre-recruited and demographic panel 250 (average) new panelists recruited / day 30% average response rate / survey 300-800 completed survey’s / day

110 plus consumer demographics 80 plus FMCG categories

Portal based collection via mobile phone (On-line option) Can use Client data bases and guarantee Non-disclosure

IFM Panel by the numbers










20% 36% 23% 15% 6%

18-24 25-29 30-34 35-44 45+53 47

Gender

overview: n = 30,252

Updated: March 25, 2016

Single Married

46 53

Marital status

Other 1

6% 15% 73% - University / Post Graduate

EducationGrade 1-12

VocationalCollege

7%

12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7%4% 4% 3%

7%

12%

7%7% 8%

7%

5%4%

4% 4%

1%

9%

Education IT Sales Retail Finance Construction Hospitality Healthcare HR Marketing Other

Urban Rural

Age

Profession










Location by Sample

48%

34%

18%

31%

39%

30%

29%

41%

30%

AB

CD

EF

Metro 2nd cities Rural

locationsIFM Panel segments Vietnam using the official GSO statistics for urban metro Vietnam, Secondary cities and rural Vietnam. Rural are all areas which do not fall into either Metro or Secondary cities.

Metro Urban Cities# City name Population Region1 Can Tho 1,238,300 Mekong2 Da Nang 1,007,700 Central3 Hai Phong 1,946,000 North4 Ha Noi 7,379,300 Red River Delta5 Ho Chi Minh City 8,244,400 South Central

Total 19,815,700Secondary Cities

City name Population Region1 Hạ Long 203,731 North2 Nam Định 191,900 Red River Delta3 Thanh Hóa 197,551 North4 Thái Nguyên 330,000 North5 Việt Trì 277,539 North6 Vinh 282,981 North7 Huế 333,715 Central 8 Nha Trang 392,279 Central9 Quy Nhơn 311,000 Central

10 Buôn Ma Thuột 340,000 Highlands11 Đà Lạt 256,393 Highlands12 Biên Hòa 1,104,495 South Central13 Vũng Tàu 450,000 Mekong

Total 4,671,584

Source: Hanoi GSO

Base: n = 30,252

72%

10%

18%Metro 21,600

2nd Cities 3,222

Rural 5,430

Location by income










income & representation

0.5 0.55

10 10

23

50

1

710

24 24 24

10

14 1316 17

19

13

8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

A Class B Class C Class D Class E Class F Class Below Minwage

IFM PANEL SEC vs F2F vs On-line (%)

On-line panels Face 2 Face IFM Mobilepanel

43% IFM Panel SEC: ABC

Consumers are now wealthier and harder to reach. Face-to-face sampling does not pick up representation of high net worth respondents, while on-line is student driven. IFM Mobile panel naturally reaches higher net worth individuals with smartphones.

Source: ESOMAR

Total

A1

A

B

C

D

E

F F1

14%

13%

16%

17%

19%

13%

2 6%

A1 40 Mil above D 15-20 Mil

A 30-40 Mil E 10-15 Mil

B 25-30 Mil F 5-10 Mil

C 20-25 Mil F1 5 Mil below










IFM Panels Connecting you to your target consumers

IT SpecialistsN = 3,090

CEO / Business OwnersN = 2,850

Financial ServicesN = 2,436

Credit / Debit Card Panel N = 17,040

HR SpecialistsN = 1,080

Insurance OwnersN = 26,244

Income 30 Mil VND Plus N = 8,958

Education ProsN = 2,401

Home ownersN = 3,546

Retailers N = 2,646

MothersN = 9,264

Healthcare ProsN = 1,200

FMCG PanelN = 30,020

Automotive N = 5,034

Mobile PhoneN = 32,472

Rural PanelN = 5,521










Ralf Matthaes Managing DirectorTel: +84-8 2262-7627Mobile: +84-903-949-531Website: www.ifmresearch.comifmpanel website: www.ifmpanel.com

Email: [email protected] Dang Huu Pho Street, Thao Dien, An Phu, HCMC, Vietnam

Better - Faster - Cost efficient Cost










http://www.ifmpanel.com/
