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Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Sco;sh Town Centres 2015
By The Local Data Company Presented 21st October 2015
#LDCInsight
Keynote presenta=ons Leigh Sparks University of S=rling MaChew Hopkinson Local Data Company
#LDCInsight
Chair Jane Bradley The Scotsman
The panel Phil Pren6ce Scotland’s Town Partnership
Margaret McCulloch Member Of The ScoGsh Parliament
Audrey Michie Aberdeenshire Council
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Today’s agenda
Introduc6on and Research methodology
Research ques6ons and findings
Pu;ng Scotland in context
Panel discussion and Q&A
Tweet using #LDCInsight
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Quality of life is not only about what you find in shops; it’s about the landscape. ”
“ Donald Tusk, President of the European Council
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
What do we do?
Gap Analysis Impar=al
Evidence based research
PorTolio Analysis
Openings & Closures
Persistent vacancy
Retail Parks
Shopping Centres
Health Scores
Diversity Indices FooTall
Catchment Profiles
Analy=cs Na=onwide
Vacancy rates
Insight Knowledge
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
How we do it?
Tweet using #LDCInsights
65,000 updates a month
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Evidence based analysis
Ci6es & Towns (50+ units)
850
Shopping Centres (10+ units)
675
Retail Parks (3+ units)
1,075
Tweet using #LDCInsights
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Scotland Coverage
141 LOCATIONS TRACKED
46,599 BUSINESSES TRACKED
#LDCInsight
Retail Parks
87
67 Shopping centres
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns and Ci6es 2015
Professor Leigh Sparks, Ins6tute for Retail Studies,
University of S6rling
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Background • The crisis of the high street
and the crisis of the town centre
• From Portas to Fraser • ScoGsh Government’s
Town Centre Ac=on Plan • Change will not be swia
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Town Centers • Retailing is important • Retailing is not the sole driver but vital nonetheless
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Data • Local Data Company/University of S=rling • Third ScoGsh Summit • 101 places (towns and ci=es) • Using given boundaries and data from 2012
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Na6onal Vacancy Rates 2013-‐15
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Na=onal vacancy rates H1 2013 – H1 2015
Tweet using #LDCInsights
England ScotlandWales
Vaca
ncy r
ate (
%) 16.0
17.0
15.0
14.0
13.0
12.0
11.0
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H1 2015H2 201410.0
Source: LDC
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Average retail vacancy rates by town
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Vacancy rates by loca=on type 2015
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Vacancy rates by loca=on type 2014
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Vacancy rates by loca=on type 2013
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
What is the Retail Scale of Sco;sh Towns and Ci6es?
• Glasgow and Edinburgh dominate the retail scene • There is a complicated mix of larger towns and smaller ci=es
and considerable scale overlap • Only 27 towns have seen the number of retail premises since
2012 • Ci=es and larger towns seem to be on a different trajectory to
the smaller towns in our subset, where retail premise numbers have edged up slightly
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
What is the Vacancy rate and How is it Changing?
• The number of retail premises vacant in ci=es has reduced notably since 2012
• The vacancy rates in towns and ci=es has fallen since 2012 and now stands at an average of 13% (cf 14% in 2013)
• The varia=on in vacancy rates has reduced sugges=ng that towns with the worst situa=ons have begun to tackle them successfully
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
What is the Vacancy rate and How is it Changing? -‐ 2
• Biggar has the lowest vacancy rate and Banff the highest • Towns have very different trajectories with half the towns
seeing falling vacancy rates and half seeing increasing rates • Persistent vacancy is highest in Banff and lowest in Alness and
Inverurie • 22 towns and 1 city (Dundee) have perisitent vacancy rates
above 10% i.e. 1 in 10 premises have been vacant for three years
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
What is the Retail Structure of our Towns and Ci6es?
• Retailing is the major component of the premises in the towns and ci=es, with ci=es being more leisure oriented than most towns
• Gourock is the most independent retail town and Gretna the least • The least independent towns tend to be dominated by planned centres • There is no discernible pajern in terms of towns becoming more or less
independent in their make up
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
What is the Retail Structure of our Towns and Ci6es? -‐2
• Towns and ci=es are becoming more service premise focused
• There has been a reduc=on in the propor=on of comparison retailing units in many towns, perhaps reflec=ng the impact of the internet
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
What is the Retail Structure of our Towns and Ci6es? -‐ 3
• Penicuik has the highest propor=on of charity retailers and Burn=sland the lowest
• Ardrossan has the highest BMG Index and Callendar the lowest • 55% of towns saw an increase in the charity shop propor=on since 23012,
compared to 40% for BMG • 29 towns saw increases in both charity shop and BMG Index measures,
compared to 34 towns which saw decreases in both
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Conclusions • Vacancy rate con=nues to fall – Economy – Restructuring – Adjustment
• Towns have differing trajectories • Dis=nc=veness and adjustment are being driven from the
ground up
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Web: www.s=rlingretail.com Email: Leigh.sparks@s=r.ac.uk Telephone: 01786 467384 Twijer: sparks_s=rling
Contact Points
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
What is happening GB wide?
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Retail sales – 2010-‐2015
#LDCInsights Source: BDO High Street Tracker
-‐5
-‐10 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Overall Lifestyle Fashion Homeware
15
10
5
0
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
UK Consumer Confidence 2010-‐2015
#LDCInsights Source: HM Treasury
10
5
0
-‐5
-‐10
-‐15
-‐20
-‐25
-‐30
-‐35 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Shopper Behaviour
#LDCInsights
90%
80%
70%
60%
100%
50%
40%
18-24 35-4425-34 45-54 55+
30%
20%
10%
0%
33.6 32.9
46.4
20.7
54.6
30.4
37.6
37.833.1
25.7
14.818.0
19.520.3
17.6
3.56.34.0
6.1 3.83.13.9
3.9 5.2 4.0
Shop mostly in storeResearch online - buy in store Shop mostly online
Shop online - collect in storeOtherResearch in store - buy online
Source: ONS
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
GB Shop vacancy rates 2008 -‐ 2015
Tweet using #LDCInsights
Source: LDC
Shop
vaca
ncy r
ate (
%)
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
2008-122009-06
2009-122010-06
2010-122011-06
2011-122012-06
2012-122013-06
2013-122014-06
2014-122015-06
0.0
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Shopping centre vacancy rates H1 2013 – H1 2015
Tweet using #LDCInsights
England ScotlandWales
Vaca
ncy r
ate (
%)
19.020.0
18.017.0
14.0
16.0
13.0
15.0
12.0
8.09.0
10.011.0
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H1 2015H2 20147.0
Source: LDC
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Vacancy in retail parks H1 2013 – H1 2015
Tweet using #LDCInsights
England ScotlandWales
Vaca
ncy r
ate (
%)
12.013.0
11.0
10.09.08.0
5.06.07.0
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H1 2015H2 20144.0
Source: LDC
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Persistent vacancy by % of total units H1 2015
Tweet using #LDCInsights
Source: LDC
Less than 1 year 2-3 years 3+ years1-2 years
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
SmallHigh
Street
LargeHigh
Street
Shopping Centre
Retail Park
MediumHigh
Street
3.7%
4.3%
5.0%
5.6%
2.1%
1.6%
2.3%
2.2%
3.0%
1.4%
1.1%
1.4%
1.4%
2.1%
1.3%
2.9%
3.6%
3.9%
4.2%
1.9%
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
GB Openings & Closures H1 2015
#LDCInsights
Num
ber o
f uni
ts
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
-10,000
-15,000
10,112
-10,693
Openings Closures
Source: Local Data Company
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
GB Openings & Closures by independent/mul=ple
#LDCInsights
Num
ber o
f uni
ts
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
8,000
10,000
6,000
-4,000
-6,000
-8,000
-10,000
Independents Multiples
Openings Closures
7,915
2,197
-8,059
-2,634
Source: Local Data Company
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
GB Openings & Closures by business type
#LDCInsights
Multiples Independents
Net
cha
nge
in u
nit n
umbe
rs
-1,000
0
2,000
1,000
6,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
-2,000
-30002009 (H2)
2010(H1)
2010(H2)
2011(H1)
2011 (H2)
2012 (H1)
2012 (H2)
2013 (H1)
2013 (H2)
2014 (H1)
2014(H2)
2015(H1)
Source: Local Data Company
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Convenience stores growth since 2012
#LDCInsights
Num
ber o
f uni
ts
20,500
21,000
21,500
22,500
22,000
20,000
19,500
19,000
2012 2013 2014 2015
Convenience stores
Source: Local Data Company
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
The essence of retail is theatre. ” “
Tom Peters
#LDCInsights
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Openings & Closures by region/na=on
#LDCInsights
West Midlands
Scotland
Yorks & The Humber
Wales
North West
South West
South East
North East
Greater London
East of England
East Midlands
Number of outlets
1,000 4,0003,000 6,000 7,0000 2,000 5,000
Openings Closures
Source: Local Data Company
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Churn rates across GB by region/na=on
#LDCInsights
Scotland
West Midlands
Greater London
Wales
South East
North West
GB
South West
East Midlands
East of England
Yorks & The Humber
Churn rate (%)2.0% 8.0%6.0% 12.0% 14.0%0.0%
11.7%
11.5%
10.5%
10.3%
9.9%
9.7%
9.4%
9.0%
8.9%
8.5%
8.2%
4.0% 10.0%
Source: Local Data Company
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC #LDCInsights
Source Wallpaper22.com
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Foofall: Are outlets achieving their poten6al?
London Retail park: lower fooTall higher conversion & ATV, weekend peaks. Food outlets extend dwell =me on Sundays – impact from opening hours legisla=on?
Central London: high volumes, several peaks, longer evening tail = opportuni=es • Understand peak
shopping =mes • Should opening
hours be extended?
• Benchmark loca6on types
• Op=mise staff accordingly
• Impact of weather and events
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Foofall: How important are daily varia6ons? • ‘High street’ fooTall typically increases from Monday to Saturday
– Market Harborough, Reading, Basingstoke all have peaks on Saturday – London profiles vary according to micro-‐loca=on factors. Impacts store opera=ons.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Average<External<Footfall<by<Town</<Day
Market<Harborough Reading Basingstoke London
Holborn – low weekend traffic. Understand value of local worker popula=on to maximise weekday sales
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
LDC / MS Health Index version 3.0
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Summary
• Vacancy rates are improving but not everywhere • Wales is well behind England and Scotland • The ‘North’ con=nues to have above average rates • Worst centres at >25% and best at <2% • Shopping centres whilst improving have highest average rate • The number of long term vacant units is rising (+24.4%) • 5 year change ranges from -‐12.5% to +7.5% with 57% improving
Tweet using #LDCInsights
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Key findings on openings and closures • Independents have gone nega=ve for first =me in 3 years
• Chains con=nue to exit high street in favour for out of town
• Comparison goods decline has accelerated
• Leisure bubble?
• Service retail polarisa=on between banks and ‘beauty/grooming’
• Greater London highly compe==ve and thus churning
• Mix between Independents (65%) and chains (35%) has changed by 1% towards chains in last 12 months
• Change of use and development star=ng to happen in stock profile #LDCInsights
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
I can’t change the direc=on of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to reach my des=na=on. ”
“ Jimmy Dean
Tweet using #LDCInsights
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Sco;sh Town Centres 2015
By The Local Data Company Presented 21st October 2015
#LDCInsight
Keynote presenta=ons Leigh Sparks University of S=rling MaChew Hopkinson Local Data Company
#LDCInsight
Chair Jane Bradley The Scotsman
The panel Phil Pren6ce Scotland’s Town Partnership
Margaret McCulloch Member Of The ScoGsh Parliament
Audrey Michie Aberdeenshire Council
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Number of retail premises by town
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Number of retail premises by town
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Number of retail premises by city
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Retail vacancy change by town
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Retail vacancy change by town
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Change in retail mix across ScoGsh towns and ci=es
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Number of vacant retail units by town
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Number of vacant retail units by town
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Number of vacant retail units by city
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Average retail vacant units by town
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Vacancy rates across ScoGsh towns and ci=es
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Vacancy rates across ScoGsh towns and ci=es
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Vacancy rates across ScoGsh towns and ci=es
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Change in vacancy rate across ScoGsh towns and ci=es
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Convenience stores growth since 2012
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Persistent vacancy across ScoGsh towns and ci=es
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Change in retail mix across ScoGsh towns and ci=es
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Change in retail mix across ScoGsh towns and ci=es
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Change in retail mix across ScoGsh towns and ci=es
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Retail mix across ScoGsh towns and ci=es
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Retail mix across ScoGsh towns and ci=es
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Retail mix across ScoGsh towns and ci=es
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Independent retailers across ScoGsh towns and ci=es
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Independent retailers across ScoGsh towns and ci=es
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Independent retailers across ScoGsh towns and ci=es
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Independent retailers across ScoGsh towns and ci=es
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Independent retailers across ScoGsh towns and ci=es
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Number of Charity Shops across ScoGsh towns and ci=es
#LDCInsight
Dingwall 6.8
Burntisland 0.0 Fort William 6.9
Gretna 0.0
Forres 7.5Livingston 0.3
Haddington 7.5Broxburn 1.1
Penicuik 9.3Auchterarder 1.6
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
BMG Score by town
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
BMG Score by town
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
BMG Score by town
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Booze, Money and Gambling 2015 (as % of total stock)
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Booze, Money and Gambling 2015 (as % of total stock)
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Booze, Money and Gambling 2015 (as % of total stock)
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
Quality of life is not only about what you find in shops; it’s about the landscape. ”
“ Donald Tusk, President of the European Council
#LDCInsight
Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015
Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC
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