Burst ing bubbles & bui lding br idges: Tracking the global climate change conversation Alberto Abellán Gavela, Gabriele Colombo, Sarah Oates, Francesca Arcostanzo, Maya Livio, Jonas Kaiser, Paolo Gerbaudo, Soenke Lorenzen, Tobias Buerger, Frederik de Grove, Saskia Kok

Digital Methods WINTER SCHOOL 2015 12 - 16 JANUARY 2015

Introduction •  COP20 took place in Lima in December 2014

•  People’s Climate March took place on 21 September 2014

Research questions •  Have the meta-narratives disseminated by climate action network stakeholders,

particularly those about the fossil fuel phase-out, gained traction in the overall discourse surrounding two major climate-related events: the Lima COP20 and People’s Climate March.

•  Which meta-narratives have resonated, and with which actors? Are those actors from

within the ‘bubble’ of committed environmental organizations, or has the key meta-narratives moved beyond the bubble?

•  If so, who are the key bridge actors responsible from moving the meta-narratives from

inside to outside the bubble?

Method •  Cross-platform: Twitter and Facebook •  Twitter: COP20 data + People’s Climate March

•  Facebook: dataset Filtered  by  @LimaCop20  OR  COP20  OR  Peru  

•  Timeframe for both platforms: 23 November 2014 – 19 December 2014

Method: Twitter

1.  We utilised two datasets cop20 and globalwarming.

2.  The globalwarming dataset was filtered for #peoplesclimate

3.  We performed co-hashtag analysis on both datasets to identify shared and dominant discourses

4.  We searched for the most engaged actors in the conversation and manually categorised according to their type (CSO/GOV/COM/etc.)

5.  We used Tcat, Gephi and Excel, and Illustrator to analyse and visualise our findings

6.  We drank white wine... a lot

Findings: Twitter 1.  Substantive difference between two events (political narrative vs.

civic society) 2.  There is a lack of science in both datasets 3.  There is a relatively large amount of users engaging in both events

(10.000 overlap) 4.  Narrative takes place in the ‘bubble’

•  Discourse  is  dominated  by  a  “bot”  that  retweets  informa6on  on  climate  change  

•  @Theearthnetwork  also  retweets  informa6on  which  is  curated  by  @johnlundin  

•  However,  number  is  not  a  valid  indicator  for  “impact”…  

•  @peoples_climate  is  the  account  men6oned  most  oCen  •  (Non)-­‐governmental  organisa6ons  such  as  @amnesty,  

@350,  @sierraclub,  and  @greenpeace  are  prominent  in  the  discourse  

•  Also  journalis6c  source  such  as  @thena6on  and  @mashable  are  influental  

Using “globalwarming” data Filtered by #peoplesclimate

Method: Facebook 1.  Derive most-engaged-with posts of dataset (20.000 posts)2.  Perform qualitative content analysis on posts: which themes

emerge. Use word count/cloud to generate list of words. 3.  From content analysis/list of words, create themes or labels. 4.  Associate words with these themes. 5.  Search all Facebook posts relating to COP20 over set time

period to create graphic representation of how users engage with these themes.

6.  Identify the most relevant actors.

Findings: Facebook

1.  Top engagement generated by celebs – Emma Watson

2.  The most engaged with content and topics of interest were labeled as ‘action, ‘venue’, ‘global community’

3.  More meaningful messages appear to get ‘lost’ in Facebook

4.  Need to establish ‘islands’ of engagement. Bring people to the bubble

Theme label   key words to use for search in FB content  

Celebrity   Watson, Kardashian, Beyonce, Bieber, Cyrus, Swift, Jolie, Diego Muñoz, Wilfred Dass, Jason Day  

Politicians   Barack Obama, Ki-moon, Morales, Humala, John Kerry, Gore  

Venue   Peru, London, Paris  

Indigenous   indigenous, indians  

Weather   tornado, hurricane, typhoon, temperature, rubyph, droughts, storms, floods  

Economics   trade-offs, cost, economy, jobs  

Action   strike, demonstrate, protest, arrest, watch, defenders, action, savetheartic, climatejustice, nownottomorrow, idlenomore, rubyph, “climate action”, justice, hunger, Amazon  

COP20 events   speech, meeting, announcement  

Anti   lies  

Greenpeace   Greenpeace  

Global Community   NGO, United Nations, WWF  

Renewables   renewables  

Nazca   Nazca  

n° of posts per LABEL and keyword

Action (11.629)Venue (7.322)Global Community (3.376)Economics (2.518)COP20 events (2.045)Weather (1.596)Greenpeace (1.557)Politicians (1.550)Indigenous (1.285)Anti (600)Celebrity (557)Renewables (126)Nazca (109)

ACTION (11629)action (4277)watch (2310)protest (1372)arrest (954)climate action (950)justice (668)Amazon (534)demonstrate (154)strike (101)climatejustice (93)hunger (64)idlenomore (58)defenders (50)nownottomorrow (44)savetheartic (0)

VENUE (7322)Peru (4178)Paris (2868)London (276)

GLOBAL COMMUNITY (3376)United Nations (1598)NGO (936)WWF (842)

Economics (2518)cost (1753)economy (543)jobs (219)trade-offs (3)

COP20 EVENTS (2045)meeting (1696)speech (225)announcement (124)

WEATHER (1596)temperature (694)typhoon (211)storms (160)droughts (135)floods (107)hurricane (93)rubyph (68)rubyph (68)tornado (60)

GREENPEACE (1557)Greenpeace (1557)

POLITICIANS (1550)Obama (583)Ki-moon (341)Gore (183)Morales (164)Humala (150)Kerry (129)

INDIGENOUS (1285)indigenous (1253)indians (32)

NAZCA (109)Nazca (109)

ANTI (600)lies (600)

CELEBRITY (557)Diego (455)Swift (64)Watson (28)Bieber (5)Cyrus (4)Beyonce (1) Kardashian (0)Jolie (0) Muñoz (0)Wilfred Dass (0)Jason Day (0)

RENEWABLES (126)renewables (126)

ACTION

ANTI

COP20 EVENTS

ECONOMICS

GLOBAL COMMUNITY

GREENPEACE

INDIGENOUS

NAZCA

PERSONALITIES

POLITICIANS

RENEWABLE

VENUE

WEATHER

23/11 24/11 25/11 26/11 27/11 28/11 29/11 30/11 01/12 02/12 03/12 04/12 05/12 06/12 07/12 08/12 09/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 13/12 14/12 15/12 16/12 17/12 18/12 19/12

overallengagement

engagement of postswith keywords

23-11-14

24-11-14

25-11-14

26-11-14

27-11-14

28-11-14

29-11-14

30-11-14

01-12-14

02-12-14

03-12-14

04-12-14

05-12-14

06-12-14

07-12-14

08-12-14

09-12-14

10-12-14

11-12-14

12-12-14

13-12-14

14-12-14

15-12-14

16-12-14

17-12-14

18-12-14

19-12-14

19-12-14

Diario La Republica

wattsupwiththat

Diario La Republica

SuperProfs.comfor CA, CS e CMA

COP20 Lima Moms Clean Air Force

Front LineAction on Coal Bosch Global

1 Million Women Campaign

Greenpeace Australia PacificCOP20 LimaDiario El Comercio (Peru)

Diario La Republica Friends of the Earth U.S.Amazon Watch

Friends of Science Greenpeace New Zealand

Diario La Republica

Diario La Republica

Diario La RepublicaCAspot.com

Greenpeace UKTuTeve

Greenpeace Italia

DiarioLa Republica

Diario ElComercio (Peru)

TuTeve

Diario La Republica

Indigenous Environmental NetworkDiario La Republica

AFD

Bosch Global

Greenpeace USA

Amazon Watch

CNNGreenpeaceUK

TuTeveFriends of the Earth International

UNESCO en espanol

Diario La RepublicaGreenpeace USA

Diario La Republica

Bosch GlobalTuTeve Diario La Republica

Elizabeth MayDiario El Comercio (Peru)

Democracy Now

Diario El Comercio (Peru)

Democracy Now

Avaaz

Diario El Comercio (Peru)Avaaz

350.org

rfiDiario La Republica

Christine Milne

Pia Olsen DyhrTuTevel'Humanite

Marina SilvaDemocracy NowIPS Agencia de Noticias

Greenpeace USAMarina SilvaDiario La Republica

Marina SilvaCAspot.comKlimaschutz-Netz

CAspot.comCAspot.com

Chemtrails Project UK

The White HouseBold NebraskaGurukul

Les Editions ArianeU.S. Department of the InteriorCAspot.com

Diario El Comercio (Peru)Diario La Republica

Greenpeace Philippines

engagementdate1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000

Top 3 actors per day

Ref:  h'p://thepoli.csofsystems.net/2012/10/the-­‐new-­‐york-­‐.mes-­‐vs-­‐the-­‐wall-­‐street-­‐journal-­‐on-­‐facebook/

     User      Post_Page:  COP20  Lima      Post_Page:  People's  Climate  March  

Ref:  h'p://thepoli.csofsystems.net/2012/10/the-­‐new-­‐york-­‐.mes-­‐vs-­‐the-­‐wall-­‐street-­‐journal-­‐on-­‐facebook/

     User      Post_Page:  COP20  Lima      Post_Page:  People's  Climate  March  

ß   68  à      users

Conclusions: most significant findings •  Climate change narrative is ‘bubbled’ – on Facebook as well as

Twitter.. •  Celebs and media capitalize most of the engagement..

•  Consider platform specific properties – engagement with users as opposed to imposing a specific narrative..