Climate change: Impact on Productivity and Quality of

Temperate Fruits and Its Mitigation Strategies

Presentation for National workshop on “Climate Change Impact, Mitigation, and Adaptation for Sustainable Horticulture,

held on July 23–24, 2015 at Amity School of Natural Resources and Sustainable

Development, Amity University Campus, Sector-125, Noida, India

M. K. Verma, Ph. D., ARS, FSHI

Principal Scientist (Hort.)

Division of Fruits & Horticultural Technology

ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute

New Delhi – 110

Climate change sends India's apple farmers up the Himalayas

• Apples in the Himalayan foothills are seeing the worst effects of climate change.

• Temp. rose 0.6oC (global), 1.5oC (Himalayas) & 3.4oC (winter temp.)

• reduction in snowfall by 36% (1980-2012),

• Apple cultivation in low altitudes reduced by 77 % (Solan) 1987-

2007.

• Areas turning from sub-temperate to sub-tropical

April 22, 2013

Prof. Kamaljit S. Baba, University of Massachusetts, Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Arunachal apples losing taste due to climate change • Apple produced in Arunachal Pradesh are now

gradually losing their taste and even turning sour as a result of climate change.

• Due to very heavily and erratic rains which dilutes the sugar content of the crop

February 24, 2013

Temperate fruit growing regions in India

■ North Western Himalaya (J&K, H.P., U.K.)

■ Parts of North Eastern Himalaya (Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim,

Meghalaya, Darjeeling)

■Horticulture is a backbone of the states economy.

■ 75% people & 70% of GDP depends on Hort/agriculture

Features of temperate climate

■ Extreme cool winters and mild summers

■ Growing period range from <90 -120 days

■ Fragile ecosystem with harsh and difficult terrain

■ Undulating sloppy terraced land, high soil erosion & low

soil depth

■ Chilling requirement for temperate fruits-mandatory

North Western Himalayan region

Regions Climate,

altitute

(m, amsl)

Crops grown Parts of the state covered

J&K H.P. UK

Region-I

(Sub

mountaine

& low hill)

Subtropical

200-800

Mango, ber, guava,

citrus, pear

Jammu, Kathua &

Plains of Udhampur

Una, Bilaspur,

Hamirpur & parts

of Shirmor,

Kangra, Solan &

Chamba

Parts of Pauri,

Gharwal, Dehra

Dun, Almora &

Pithoragarh

II (mid

hills)

Sub humid

801-1800

Pear, peach, plum,

apricot, walnut, apple

Hilly areas of Doda,

Udhahampur,

Rajouri, Punch,

Ramban

Parts of Kangra,

Palampur, Shimla,

Mandi, Solan,

Kullu, Chamba

Sirmaur

Parts of all districts

III (High

hills)

Temperate

1801-2200

apple, almond, cherry,

Pear, peach, plum,

apricot, walnut,

All the districts of

Kashmir valley &

Ladakh

Shimla & parts of

Kullu,Solan,

Chamba, Mandi,

Kangra, Sirmaur

Major parts of

Pithiragarh,

Uttarakashi, 7

small parts of

Chamoli & Tehri

Garhwal

IV (very

high hills)

Temperate

dry

> 2200

Apricot, apple,

necterines and prune

Ladakh Kinnor, Lahaul,

Spiti, Pangi

&Bharmour

Parts of

Uttarakashi,

Chamoli,

Pithoragarh &

Almora districts

Agro -ecological regions of NW Himalayas

•

Fruits and nuts Apple Pear Pear Quince

Peach Nectarine Apricot Sweet Cherry

Plum Prune Kiwi Fruits Olive

Persimmon Strawberry Blueberry Raspberry

Ribes Walnut Almond Pistachio nut

Chestnut Pecan nut Pecan nut kernel Hazelnut

Important

Fruit Crops

Grown in the

Temperate

Region

Growth in area (l ha), production (l. tons) and productivity (t/ha) of temperate fruits from 1960-61 to 2010-11

Crop 1960-61 2011-12 Percent growth from

1960-61 to 2011-12

Area Prodn Prodty Area Prodn Prodty Area Prodn Prodty

Apple 0.44 1.85 4.15 2.89 28.91 10.00 556.8 1462.7 140.9

Pear 0.06 0.33 5.41 0.379 3.34 8.81 531.6 9121.2

0

62.84

Peach 0.10 0.43 4.30 0.364 2.43 6.67 264 465.11 55.11

Plum 0.03 0.19 3.66 0.246 1.99 8.09 720 947.30 121.0

Apricot 0.03 0.08 2.75 0.048 0.167 3.42 60.00 108.75 24.36

Cherry 0.01 0.03 2.50 0.032 0.133 4.12 220.0 343.30 64.80

Almond NA NA NA 0.023 1.63 0.70 - - -

Walnut 0.14 0.12 0.85 0.308 0.36 1.16 120 200 36.47

NHB, FAO, 2010-11

Although, in one hand there has been seen

marked growth in area and production of

these crops but in other hand productivity

has left far behind as compared to

advanced countries.

The low productivity is mainly attributed by

several factors including environmental,

physiological and biological.

Over the years, environmental changes

playing a significant role like occurrence of

erratic rain, snowfall and increase in

temperature

Changes in temperature and precipitation vis-a-vis apple

acreage in Himalayan States during 1980–2010

State Period Avg. Annual

Temp. (oC)

Rise in

Temperatur

e (oC)

(1980-2010)

Precipitation

(mm)

Area (ooo

ha)

Approx. new

area covered

under higher

elevations

J & K

Ladakh

1980-85

1986-90

1991-95

1996-2000

2001-2005

2006-2008

2001-2002

2009-2010

13.01

13.58

13.12

13.91

14.46

13.32 -

-

1.45-2.32

726

817

784

585

682

763

Reduced

(1973-2008)

63.09

66.85

71.33

82.18

96.34

138.19

0.609

0.836

-

-

-

6510

8496

25110

-

227

State Period Avg.

Annual

Temp.

(oC)

Rise in

Temperature

(oC)

(1980-2008)

Precipitation

(mm)

Area

(ooo

ha)

Approx.

new area

covered

under

higher

elevations

Uttarakhand 1980-85

1986-90

1991-95

1996-2000

2001-2005

2006-2009

12.40

11.45

13.69

13.90

13.84

13.91

1.51

1394

1430

1104

1067

935

1245

-

-

52.70 51.80

55.98

31.66

-

-

-

-

4180

24320

H.P.

Solan/Kangra

Mandi/Chamba

/Sirmaur

Shimla/Kullu

Kinaur/Lahul-

Spiti

1980-1985

1991-2000

2001-2007

1980-1985

2005-2007

1980-1985

2005-2007

1980-1985

2005-2007

1980-1985

2005-2007

13.03

13.77

14.40

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

1.37

1323

1270

1023

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

46.80

83.20

90.20

953

549

12368

29172

30975

51491

2532

8965

-

36400

7000

404

16804

20516

6433

Impact of climate change in Himalayan states (Erratic climate/ climate change)

Variation in temperature rise is visible (1980-2009) Early melting of glaciers and floods

Change in cropping pattern/systems Warmer and extended winters – erratic changes Erratic and reduced winter precipitation and snowfall Depletion of ground water and water scarcity

0

1

2

J&K UA

HP

1.89

1.51 1.37

Ris

e in

an

nu

al m

ean

te

mp

erat

ure

by

(oC

)

This formerly paddy land has been converted into an orchard in Khan Sahib

Shift in apple cultivation

towards higher altitude

and cold arid areas

Shift in ecological zones

Majority of the apple

orchards in UK have

become unproductive

over the year – low

chilling (?)

Incidence and

resurgence of insect and

diseases of horticultural

crops

Apple production in Ladakh (Future potential area)

Unproductive orchards in lower altitudes in

U.K.

Fruit bearing peach trees in

U.K.

Mechanical damage

during active growing

stage directly

responsible for canker &

gummosis

Hail storms and low

temperature during

spring – common

phenomenon now.

Crop failure in high

chill fruit crops under

low altitutes

Dry spell during late

spring and early

summers

Early blooming of fruit blossoms and flowers due to warmer temperatures during February and March in Kashmir has been damaging fruit produce as sudden late snows in February and March devastate blossoms

Effect on flowering

Bud burst is advanced

and the onset of growth

occurs earlier as in apple

where most of the trees

sprout 2-3 weeks earlier

than normal sprouting

(mid April )

Due to change in bud

opening in March, they

may become Susceptible

to frost damage

Occurrence of late snowfall- causes heavy damage to almonds- coincided with full bloom

Apricot in bloom-coincided with late winter snow fall

Apples fails to attain their

characteristic deep red

color if night temperature

are high (11.5 & 21)

High temperature and

moisture stress increases

sunburn & cracking in

apples, apricot, cherry,

pomegranate etc.

Effect on fruit quality

Wetter, warmer winters favours incidence

of diseases like Phytophthora,

Fusarium etc.

Drier, warmer summers favours diseases

such as Alternaria, powdery mildew,

sooty bark diseases (under moisture

stress)

Warm and humid temperature favours

apple scab

Very dry summers results in increase in

population of red spider mite and aphids

--- more problem of attacks on apple

(Orson, 1999)

Effect of climate change on diseases and insects

Powdery mildew of apple at dry and warmer summers

Apple scab in warm and humid

temperature

Mite attack on apple Apple aphid in dry summer

Flea beetle in warm and humid climate

Woolly aphis

Introduction of low chilling cultivars.

Diversification with other high value fruit crops (peach,

apricot, olive , kiwi fruit etc.)

Development of new genotypes having resistance to high

temperature.

I. CROP IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIES

Mitigation strategies

• Dorsett Golden (250), Anna (300), Tropic Mac (300), Tropic Sweet (300), 88-20 (375), Ein Scheimer (400), 60-39 (400), Tamma, Neomi, Tropic Beauty, Gallia Beauty, Winter Banana, Tame, Vered

Anna (300), Dorsett Golden (250), Tropic Sweet (300),

Tropic Beauty, Winter Banana,

Low chilling Apple •There are few varieties adapted to mild winter climates (chill hours below 500).

Pear (Pyrus communis & P. pyrifolia) • Patharnakh, Gola, Leconte, Keiffer, Smith, Baghugosha, China

Pear, Pineapple, Baldwin, Tenn, Flordahome, Ayers Hood, Orient, Carnea, Tsu Li, Ya Li, P. calleryana (rootstock requires 400 chilling hours)

Flordahome,

Keiffer,

Ayers Hood,

CITH Apricot-1 CITH Apricot-3 CITH Apricot-2

Low Chilling peaches Chilling Hours

(Hrs) Cultivars

Less than 100 Okinawa (50), Red Ceylon (50),

100-150 UF Sun (100), FlordaGrande (100), Flordabelle (110), Flordared (110), Flordawon (110), FlordaPrince (150), FlordaGlo (150), Tropic Beauty (150)

>150-200 UF Beauty (200)

>200-250 Sunred (210), Flordabest (250), UFO (250)

>250-300 UF 2000 (300), UF Blaze (300), Flordadawn (300), Early Amber (310), Flordasun (310), UF Sharp (325), FlordaKing (350), Flordacrest (350), Gulfking (350), Desert Gold (350), Jewel (350)

>300-350 Early Amber (310), Flordasun (310), UF Sharp (325), FlordaKing (350), Flordacrest (350), Gulfking (350), Desert Gold (350), Jewel (350)

Chilling Hours (Hrs)

Cultivars

>350-400 Gulfcrimson (400), Gulfprince (400), Sun Ripe (400), Florda Home (400), La Festival (400), La Pecker (400), Rio Grande (400)

>400-450 Tejan (420), Rechan (450), Tex Star (450)

>450-500 Whiterobin (500), Bonita (500), Sunfire (500), Ventura (500), May Gold Su (500)

>500-550 Gulfcrest (525), Flordaqueen (540), Sungold (540)

>550-600 Gulfcrest (525), Flordaqueen (540), Sungold (540)

>600-650 Springtime (650), June Gold (650)

>650-700 Maygold (660), Junegold (660), Springtime (660), Armgold (660), Suwannee (660),

Others Tropic Snow, Parbhat, Pratap, Khurmani, Sharbati, Safeda Early Cream, Saharanpur Prabhat, Shan-i-Punjab, Shaharanpur No. 6, Ranjit Bagh Early, Safeda (LR Brothers), Shaharanpur Hybrid 3, China Flat, Babcock

Early Grande – 100 CU

Flordaprince – 150 CU

Red Ceylon – 50 CU UF Sun – 100 CU Tropic Beauty - 150 CU

Babcock – 350-400 CU Flordaking – 350- CU

Sunraycer (250) Sunmist (275) Sunred

Gulfbeauty

Low Chilling plum and prune

Gulfblaze

Gulfrose Gulfruby

Almond (Prunus dulcis) • Achak (266),

• Desmayo Largueta (309), Ramillete (326),

• Marcona (435), Marta (478),

• Antoneta (514), Ferragnes (558)

• California Papershell, Hybrid 15, Pathick.s Wonder, JKS-55, H-98,

California Papershell Marcona (435) Ferragnes

CITH Walnut-5

CITH Walnut-4 CITH Walnut-3

CITH Walnut-2 CITH Walnut-1 CITH Walnut-6 CITH Walnut-7 CITH Walnut-8

CITH Walnut-9 CITH Walnut-10

CITH Cherry-1 CITH Cherry-2 CITH Lodh Apple-1

II. Agro- techniques

Proper drought management, moisture conservation,

critical irrigation, water harvesting)

Anti-hail nets/guns- prevent damage to some extent.

Foggy and cloudy weather-leads to russetting and

flyspeck-early genotypes and early harvest prevent damage.

Weather forecasting- helps in taking advance measures in

a changing scenario for predicting crop growth, yield, and

insect pests resurgence

Moisture conservation techniques

Moisture conservation techniques

Drip irrigation in Almond orchards for effective water utilization

Prevention/protection from hailstorm

Energy harvest through plant architectural engineering.

Espalier resulted in highest yield as compare to the Single axis.

Coe Red Fuji and Granny Smith recorded highest yield 58.31 and

48.07 t/ha and 24.47 and 17.12 t/ha.

Spindle Bush, Head and Spread and Modified Leader, the cultivar

Golden Delicious, Mollies Delicious and Starkrimson resulted in

highest yield.

High density orcharding

Red Globe fruiting in Tatura trellis system Flowering in Fantasia nectarine in

Tatura trellis system

Crop diversification

Development of disease insect forecasting system and efficient management methods.

Preparation of data base for development of model for disease insect forecasting.

Strengthening surveillance of pest and diseases

To study the pattern of increasing climatic variability and

change could lead to rapid build up of pathogens and

insect pests

III. Plant protection strategies

Conclusion Climate change impacts are to be looked not in isolation but in conjunction with all the aspect of agriculture and allied sectors

Effects of climate change on horticulture sector are still uncertain

In the light of possible global warming, researchers should give more emphasis on development of heat- and drought-resistance crops

Research is needed to define the current limits to these resistances and the feasibility of manipulation through modern genetic techniques

Both crop architecture and physiology may be genetically altered to adopt to warmer environmental conditions

At the regional level, those charged with planning for resource allocation, including land, water, and agriculture development should also take climate change into account

Continuation of current and new initiatives of research so as to minimize the effects of climate change at farm, regional, national and international level. It will help to provide a detailed picture of how world horticulture and agriculture could change.

Formulation and implementations of policies and other adaptations in horticultural systems that would minimize the negative effects of climate change and exploits the beneficial effects