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Colombia towards climate-smartnessAndy JarvisFlagship Leader for Climate Smart Agriculture (CCAFS)Research Area Director, Decision and Policy Analysis (CIAT)
Colombia – Senegal ExchangeCauca, Colombia
¿What is CCAFS?
CCAFS brings together the world's best researchers in agricultural science, climate science, environmental and
social sciences to identify and address the most important interactions, synergies and trade-offs between climate
change and agriculture.
Alliance
Quesungual Agroforestry System, Honduras
Andy Jarvis, Andy Challinor
Jim Hansen
Lini Wollemberg
Phil Thornton
Research Flagships
What is Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA)?
CSA in Colombia – National context
Economic Relevance of Agriculture
People and Agriculture
GHG Emissions Agriculture GHG Emissions
CSA in Colombia – National context
Source: Agronet & CRU (http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/cru/)
Climate and agriculture: hand in hand
T-Max
T-Max
YieldYield
Rice crop
Neutral years
Tiempo térmico=2627°CicloT. Max=31°CT. Min=19.3°CEvapotranspiración=712Precipitación total=532mm + riego
Tiempo térmico=2596°CicloT. Max=32°CT. Min=19.3°CEvapotranspiración=714Precipitación total=635mm + riego
DK7088
P30F32
P30K73
FNC3056
FNC3059
FNC514
02468
10
Genotipo
Ren
dim
ient
o To
n/H
a
DK7088
P30F32
P30K73
FNC3056
FNC3059
FNC514
02468
10
Genotipo
Ren
dim
ient
o To
n/H
a
Maize – Buga(Valle del Cauca)
Location
Tolim
a
Cas
anar
e
Met
a
Cór
doba
Hui
la
(160)
(140)
(120)
(100)
(80)
(60)
(40)
(20)
-
Mill
ones
de
USD
$
Total: USD$ 427 millones al año
Sin cambiar el manejo
What is at stake for not understanding climate
Rice crop
CIAT/CCAFS-MADR Agreement
1.Avoid crop losses due to climate variability2.Close yield gaps through appropriate management of
the climate3.Produce food sustainably, synergistically with the
environment
Colombia’s own CCAFS Local Agroclimatic Committees
Improvedcrop varieties
Agroclimatic forecasts
Policies& NAMAs
Adaptation Plan for the Agricultural Sector
Farmers
Government Private sector
Producers’associations
Socioeconomic Scenarios
Climate-Site-Specific Management (CSMS)
Climate-Smart Villages
GHG measurements methods for smallholders
Scaling up activities
Component Department Municipality
RICE
Tolima Saldaña, Ibagué y EspinalHuila Palermo, AipeNorte Santander CucutaCésar ValleduparCordoba Montería, ceretéCasanare Yopal, Aguazul
Meta Villavicencio, Santa Rosa
Antioquia NechíSucre Majagual, San MarcosValle PalmiraGuajira Fonseca
BEANS
Santander VillanuevaAntioquia San VicenteNariño PastoCauca PopayánHuila El Pital
MAIZE
Córdoba Ciénaga de OroTolima EspinalValle del Cauca BugaQuindío BuenavistaSantander Sabana de TorresMeta Fuente de oro
BANANA
Magdalena Santa Marta, Rio Frio y Zona Bananera
Guajira Riohacha y Dibulla
LIVESTOCK
Boyacá San Miguel de Sema, Caldas y Chiquinquirá
Cundinamarca Simijaca
AtlánticoTubará, Piojó, Baranoa,
Manatí y Suán
Casanare Aguazul, Monterey, Pore, El Picón y Maní
Activities map CIAT/CCAFS-MADR Agreement Phase II
Córdoba: 56% (Riego)Temperatura en fase de llenado
Meta: 29% (Secano)Distribución de la precipitación en vegetativa
Casanare: 32% (Riego)Radiación en fase reproductiva
Tolima: 41% (Riego)Radiación en fase de llenado de grano
Huila: 28% (Riego)Temperatura en floración
How much yield variability can be explained by climate?
Meta: 61% (Riego)Temperatura en fase reproductiva
Mecanizada
Manual
Radiación solar acumulada (cal/cmt2)
Ren
dim
ient
o (k
g/ha
)
Humedad relativa (%)R
endi
mie
nto
(kg/
ha)
Córdoba Department
Location
Climate forecasts in some Colombian agricultural regions
Noviembre Diciembre Enero Febrero Marzo0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Promedio_Mensual Limite_Inferior
Prec
ipit
ació
n (m
m)
Noviembre Diciembre Enero Febrero Marzo0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Promedio_Mensual Limite_Inferior
Prec
ipit
ació
n (m
m)
Sugarcane
Precipitación – La Virginia
Precipitación - Guacarí
Precipitación - AeropuertoValle del Cauca
Noviembre Diciembre Enero Febrero Marzo0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Promedio_Mensual Limite_Inferior
Prec
ipit
ació
n (m
m)
Déficit
Normal
Exceso
CONVENCIONES
Agroclimatic Forecasts
01-Oct 08-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct 05-Nov 12-Nov 19-Nov 26-Nov4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
Fed2000 Fed733
Épocas de Siembra
Ren
dim
ient
o (K
g/ha
)Yield ForecastsMontería-Cerete (Córdoba)
National Agroclimatic Bulletin
Pronósticos Climáticos
Modelación agronómica
Conocimientolocal
Recomendaciones para los agricultores de medidas adaptativas a partir de la combinación del conocimiento local y científico
Local Technical Agroclimatic Committees
¿Cómo se afectarían los cultivos?
¿Qué variedades sembrar?
¿Qué habría que hacer?
¿Cuándo sembrar?
Local Agroclimatic Bulletins
Environmental Sustainability
(Water Footprint)
Partnership between different stakeholders to determine the impact of production systems in the use and quality of water
AMTEC Vs Manejo Convencional
Evaluación de híbridos con y sin riego
Conservación Vs Convencional
Huella hídricaBIODIESEL DE PALMA
LecheriaProducción más limpia
We are looking for ...Make more efficient use of resources
Para una región como el Departamento del Tolima esto implicaría agua para 28.000 hectáreas más de arroz
This is how Colombia is moving towards Climate-Smart Agriculture
Integrated approach of AFOLU sector in Colombia INDCs formulation -baseline analysis and mitigation scenarios models-
Countries can choose among a portfolio of growth-inducing technologies with different emission characteristics.
Countries are part of a global economic system, it is critical that LEDS are devised based both on national characteristics and needs, and with a recognition of the role of the international economic environment.
Objective: Determine what can be achieved given the global
economic environment
Technical Approach
a. IMPACT model: a global partial equilibrium model for agricultural commodities that provides plausible pressure for change in ag. prices and cropland areas,
b. A spatially-explicit model of land use choices: provides likely location of changes in ag. area and other land uses,
c. Crop model: provides yields, GHG emissions, and changes in soil organic.
Limited spatial resolution of macro-level economic models that operate through equilibrium-driven relationships at a global or national level with detailed models of biophysical processes at high spatial resolution.
Combines and reconciles: *
Essential components are: *
Results(1,000 hectares)
Case of Colombia
Policy ScenariosLand use policy scenarios after consultation with stakeholders
Scenario 1 Reduction of pastureland by 10 million hectares
Scenario 2 Total halt to deforestation the Amazon
Scenario 3 Total land allocated to palm production reaches a total of 1.2 million hectares
Additional investigation is necessary but, results unmistakably indicate the centrality of the livestock sector in emission reduction policies.
Source: AuthorsResults include: changes in SOC, above and below ground C caused by land use change;changes in emissions from cropland and livestock caused by land use change excluding burning;changes in revenue from crop and meat production.
Policy outcome comparison
*Includes changes in SOC, Above and Below ground C caused by land use change.**Changes in emissions from cropland and livestock caused by land use change. Exclude burning***Changes in revenue from crop and meat production
ScenarioChange C
Stock*(TgCO2eq)
Change in GHG
Emissions**(TgCO2eq)
DifferenceStock vs
Emissions
Change in Total
Revenue***(Billion USD)
1 272 25.2 246.8 40.6
2 168 -1.2 169.2 -2.5
3 64 19.9 44.1 -54.6
Results for each scenario
Livestock NAMA
Sustainable livestock: silvopastoral
Regional adaptation plans, aligned with national
Climate change regional plan for Valle del Cauca
Capacity strengthening local implementers and institutions on climate change challenges
Tools and instruments for CC adaptation and mitigation
Promote interinstituional collaboration
Link national policies with regional plans and strategies
Climate-Smart Village Approach
A community approach towards sustainable agriculture development
CCAFS works with the communities to develop Climate-Smart Villages. These are sites where researchers, local partners, farmers and policy makers work together to select and implement technologies and practices based on global knowledge and local conditions with the purpose of: a) increasing sustainable productivity and income, b) building resilience to climate change,
c) reducing GHG emissions and d) promoting food security and development goals.
CSVClimate-Smart Village
Climate information services
Climate-smart technologies
Local adaptation plans
Financial incentives and market access
Context specific conditions (social, economic, cultural, environmental)
Terr
itory
din
amic
s
Scaling up and outPoliciesPrivate sectorChampion cases are used in big initiatives
Continuous learning Stakeholder diversity Capacity building
Integrated management through a portfolio that responds to context-specific needs in the territory
CSVClimate-Smart Village
Thank you