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Dr Janet Stephenson, leader of the Energy Cultures 2 research project, gave this presentation on the findings of the Transport Delphi study at the National Energy Research Institute conference in Wellington, March 20-21, 2014.
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Efficiency gains through transport transitions:
Perspectives of international experts
Janet Stephenson, Debbie Hopkins, Adam Doering, Alaric McCarthy
University of Otago
NERI Energy Conference 20-21 March 2014
Photo: Dave Pearce
Why is change needed?
Inefficiency
• Energy use per capita for road transport is 20% above OECD average
• High proportion of private car use
• High energy use per tonne-km in freight
• Depressing productivity
Emissions
• Particulate emissions
• GHG emissions from road transport
Transport-related emissions
John Williams: Compiled from MBIE Energy Use data file
NZ’s energy-related greenhouse gas emissions 2011
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0Se
cto
r G
HG
em
issi
on
s p
er
cap
ita
(to
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e C
O2
-e)
Based on data for 2011 from Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, “Energy Greenhouse Emissions 2012 Calendar year Edition” (2013) and Ministry of Economic Development, “New Zealand Energy Data File” (2012).
Drivers of change in transport – global factors
1. What is happening globally that might shape NZ’s future transport?
2. How NZ could respond to / take advantage of these opportunities?
Research process
Delphi: An iterative, multi-stage process, bringing together expert opinions on complex topics
Panel of invited experts: (all international but 3)
Academia (n=18), industry (n=3), government (n=4), consultancy (n=3), NGO (n=1), other (n=1).
Fields of expertise included: renewable energy, transport policy, demand modelling, material technology, freight, transport economics, behaviour
Inefficient mobility
Efficient mobility
Personal mobility
Mobility largely reliant on inefficient private cars run on fossil fuels
Mobility largely reliant on private cars but more efficient use of fossil fuels
Mobility with low use of private cars
Mobility largely reliant on private cars using non-fossil fuels
Personal mobility
Private cars,
inefficient use of
fossil fuels
Private cars, efficient use of fossil fuels
low use of private
cars
Private cars, non-fossil fuels
Personal mobility of the future?
Private cars,
inefficient use of
fossil fuels
Private cars, non-fossil fuels
Private cars, efficient use of fossil fuels
Private cars, efficient use of fossil fuels
Private cars, non-fossil fuels
Private cars, efficient use of fossil fuels Private
cars, inefficient
use of fossil fuels
Private cars, non-fossil fuels
Mobility with low use of private cars
low use of private
cars
It’s complicated!
System Dynamics modelling - showing systemic basis of priority given to private vehicles
Potential shocks Likelihood of occurring within 10 years
1 = low, 5 = high Po
ten
tial
to
tra
nsf
orm
th
e t
ran
spo
rt s
yste
m a
way
fro
m B
AU
in t
he
lon
g te
rm
2 3
4 5 1
1
2
4
5
D
F
H
G
J
I
K
High – High: A: Political instability in oil-rich countries B: Breakthrough in cheap battery/storage technologies C: Surge in public and political concern about climate change
High likelihood of occurring within 10 yrs: Low potential to transform D: Geopolitical interventions in oil-rich countries E: Failure of Evs to be adopted as readily as expected
High potential to transform Low likelihood of occurring in 10 yrs: F: Global price on carbon G: Acute resource scarcity H: Significant global economic decline
E
Low - Low: I: Political instability in China and/or India J: Readily available oil sources found K: Breakthrough in nuclear fusion
A
B
C
Change Trends
Likelihood of becoming widespread within 10 years
1 = low, 5 = high
Po
ten
tial
to
tra
nsf
orm
th
e t
ran
spo
rt s
yste
m a
way
fro
m B
AU
in t
he
lon
g te
rm
2 3
4 5 1
1
2
4
5
G
J I
K
High – High: A : Increasing investment in public transport B: Uptake of travel substitution technologies C: Increasing public environmental concern D: Uptake of efficient cars E: Uptake of electric vehicles F: Uptake of active transport
High likelihood of becoming widespread Low potential to transform I: Decreasing youth car ownership J: Uptake of shared personal transport K: Decreasing youth car licensing
High potential to transform Low likelihood of becoming widespread: G: Uptake of autonomous vehicles H: Substantial reduction in VKT
B
D
E A C
F H
Material culture
Practices Norms
Transport Culture
Changing transport cultures
Do
Have
Think
Changes in material culture…
Material culture
Practices Norms
Changes in practices…
Material culture
Practices Norms
Changes in norms…
Material culture
Practices Norms
Material culture
Practices Norms
Transition
Material culture
Practices Norms
Next step ... NZ Delphi
How might NZ respond to these circumstances? What could NZ’s future transport system look like?
With many thanks to our funders...