Nico Franz - Arizona State UniversityNeil Cobb - Northern Arizona University

Katja Seltmann - American Museum of Natural History

With special thanks to Edward Gilbert (ASU) & Paul Heinrich (NAU)

The Current State of Arthropod Biodiversity Data:

Addressing Impacts of Global Change

30th Annual Meeting, SPNHC 2015May 20th, 2015

Tri-Trophic Thematic Collection Network

The Current State of Arthropod Biodiversity Data:Addressing Impacts of Global Change

Focus on North America – priorities: United States > Canada > Mexico

How many species can we model future distributions under climate change? (n > 30)

Major taxonomic & functional groups

Biogeography

Collection timeline

Digitization in North American research collections

Promoting observable species (identification does not require dissection [etc.])

Specimen estimates for North American research collections (current & projected)

Arthropods comprise ~ 70% of described species, yet only 15% of climate impact studies

Cannot predict global change impacts without knowing existing species distributions

~ 10% of North American arthropod species have “enough” occurrence data (n = 30 localities)

Arthropod occurrence data reside primarily in research collections

460-600 million specimens in collections worldwide?, < 50 million digitized (~ 10%)

Race Against Time: a Few Key Observations

Mea

n #

of O

ccur

renc

es /

Spe

cies

0.0

2.0e+4

4.0e+4

6.0e+4

8.0e+4

1.0e+5

1.2e+5

2,896

19,150

110,000100,000

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

0

# N

orth

Am

eric

an S

peci

es

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

30003,081

39142

Vertebrates Plants Arthropods

North American Biodiversity

North American Digitization

Biodiversity versus "Research Ready"

1. Arthropods are mega-diverse

2. Research-Ready ≥ 30 occurrences per species

Vertebrates < Plants < Arthropods

Vertebrates are excellent

Plants are credible

Arthropods are way behind

Occurrences are not evenly distributed 10% of arthropod species are research-ready

Understanding Climate Change Impactson Arthropod Ecological Niche Modeling

Promote Data Acquisition

Understand Mechanisms

Present Goals

Way in theFuture Goals

Predict Species Distributions for Tens of Thousandsof Species

Near-Future Goals

Model Cross-TrophicInteractions

Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Species DistributionsBIOMOD2+ Modeling Workflow

30-100 occurrence localities

Distributed over entire range

North American Arthropod Collections

USA-Canada-Mexico

237 million specimens accounted for1

>17 million are not accounted for2

254 million Total specimens in NA collections

85 million Total North American specimens (?)

Key Estimates

Current Holdings

# Sp

ecimen

s (Millio

ns)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Total NASpecimens

NASpecimens

digitized

6 million digitized North American specimens

1 87 collections 2 201 collections

The Grand Digitization Challenge

3.5 million new specimens per year

Annual Additions

# Sp

ecimen

s (Millio

ns)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

NASpecimens

digitizedto date

NASpecimens

digitizedper year

NASpecimenscollectedper year

Can we catch up?6 million total specimens digitized

2 million total specimens digitized per year?

1.1 million new North American specimens per year

North American Arthropod Collections

USA-Canada-Mexico

Key Estimates

2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

100

200

300

400

Total specimens in NA collections

5-fold increase in rate of digitization

NA specimens in NA collections

Current rate of digitization

# of

dig

itize

d sp

ecim

ens

(in m

illio

ns)

Time

Can we catch up?

Research collection occurrence records for United States & Canada

Four sources of data accessed May, 2015

Tri-Trophic TCNSymbiota Collections

of Arthropods TCN

The Data

GBIF

9,606,160 (1.1 million) (1.3 million) (2.2 million)

iDigBio

(5.2 million)

Methods

1. Compile raw data2. Clean data 3. Format data4. Compile formatted data5. Run analysis scripts

The “Seltmann model 865B” Biodiversity Cluster ArrayON OFF

Collection Occurrence Records for United States & Canada

4,606,160 specimen records 3,733,257 georeferenced records (81%) 2,803,956 identified to species (60%)

2,166 families20,153 genera80,161 species (of 110,000 total in NA [?])61,305 species georeferenced

692,749 unique occurrences (one locality)

# Re

cord

s /

2500

km

2

Biogeography of NA Arthropod Collections - 692,749 Species Records (Georeferenced)

Year Collected

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 20000

20

40

60

80

100

120

2013

2012

2011

1.6 million records

Pre-Climate Change

Spec

imen

s di

gitiz

ed (i

n th

ousa

nds)

4.2 million total records1,526 records before Columbus 637 records in future

Timeline of Arthropod Collecting?

# of Occurence Records

less than 30 >= 30 >= 100 >= 500 >=1000

Nu

mb

er o

f Sp

ecie

s

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

5000052,604 species

8,871 species (11%)

Research-Ready Data (identified to species & georeferenced)

# Reco

rds (M

illion

s)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Taxonomic Distribution: Expected versus Observed Records

Expected Observed

Vector pests Aquatics Herbivores Pollinators Predators Parasitoids

# Reco

rds (M

illion

s)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Ecological Distribution: Expected versus Observed Records

Expected Observed

PredatorsParasitoids

Status of Research-Ready Arthropod Biodiversity Data

1. Fraction of specimens digitized, but enough to model for climate change impacts

2. Biogeography of specimen records confirms geographic significant bias

3. Historical data indicate enough taxa can be tested for climate change responses NOW

4. Taxonomic breadth of data generally good (except Diptera & Coleoptera?)

5. Ecological breadth of data generally good (except predators & parasitoids)

How many arthropod species are directly observable in the field?

Field-observable arthropod taxa

• Dragonflies some damselflies

• Butterflies & Moths• Ants• Grasshoppers• Crickets• Cockroaches• Earwigs• Vespid wasps

• Cricket Crawl • Lost Ladybug • Great Sunflower Project

• Odonata Central• Butterflies & Moths of NA

• BugGuide

Projects that use observations

# of NA arthropod species that can be observed in field and/or images

• 9,000 non-lepidopteran species

• 15,800 total observable species?• 84,200 total “unobservable” species?

Collections currently hold the vast majority of arthropod occurrence data!!

• Moth Photographers Group

• DiscoverLife (Bee Hunt)• Life on Loosestrife

• 6,800 lepidopteran species

Can we [arthropod scientists] follow the V & Vers (Vascular plant & Vertebrate scientists?)

• Other aquatic groups

• Miscellaneous species

Interim Conclusions

Take Your Pick

Really11% full

Lots to do Lots to work with

TCN Collaboration