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Extraction from the ocean chapters of IPCC Working Group II contribution to 5th Assessment Report by Svein Sundby, Institute of Marine Research, Norway SICCME open session, 17 September 2014, ICES Annual Science Conference, A Coruña, Spain
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Global climate change has regional implications and regional impacts –
extraction from the ocean chapters of IPCC WGII AR5
SICCME Open Session. ICES ASC, A Coruña, Spain SICCME Open Session. ICES ASC, A Coruña, Spain 17 September 201417 September 2014
Svein Sundby
Impacts of global climate change on the ocean physics Impacts of global climate change on the ocean physics and chemistry:and chemistry:
1.1.Getting warmer Getting warmer 2.2.Losing oxygenLosing oxygen3.3.Acidifies and increase in subsaturation of calcium Acidifies and increase in subsaturation of calcium carbonate carbonate
General consequenes for marine ecosystems:General consequenes for marine ecosystems:
1. Change in productivity1. Change in productivity2. Displacement of species2. Displacement of species3. Changes in species diversity and structure and 3. Changes in species diversity and structure and functioning of the ecosystemsfunctioning of the ecosystems
6. Subtropical gyres6. Subtropical gyres5. Eastern boundary upwelling5. Eastern boundary upwelling4. Coastal upwelling4. Coastal upwelling
1. Spring-blooms1. Spring-blooms 2. Equatorial upwelling2. Equatorial upwelling 3. Semi-enclosed seas3. Semi-enclosed seas
7. Deep Sea7. Deep Sea
World oceans composed of a diverse set of ecosystems –World oceans composed of a diverse set of ecosystems –IPCC WG2 Ch 30 has considered 7 major groups:IPCC WG2 Ch 30 has considered 7 major groups:
Figure 30.1 aFigure 30.1 a
20 % of the 20 % of the world world
ocean’s areaocean’s area
80 % of the 80 % of the world’s fish world’s fish
catchescatches
Globally modeled phytoplankton production(average of a group of four global models)
Steinacher et al. (2010) Biogeosciences
Pre-industrial production(1860s)
Change in production at the end of this century (2090s)
Physical processes regulating primary productionPhysical processes regulating primary production
IPCC (2014)
De subtropiske virvlene
Vind
Assumed critical factor for primary production:
Global warming increases thermal stratification and reduces vertical flux of nutrients
> Reduced primary production
The Subtropical gyres ”The Deserts”
Østlige oppstrømningssystemer
Assumed critical factor for promary production (the Bakun hypothesis):
Global warming increases the thermal gradient between land and ocean giving increased wind and in turn increased flux of nutrients from the depth
> Possible increased primary production
Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystem
Våroppblomstyringssystemene
Temperature
Lysbegrenset
Næringssaltbegrenset
Temperaturbegrenset
Vind
Kritisk faktor ved klimaendringer
Assumed critical factor for primary production:
Global climate change increases the ocean temperature giving increased regenerated production.
> Increased primary production
The high-latitude spring-bloom ecosystems
Reduction in oxygen concentration will primarily impact areas that have additional low-oxygen natural/anthropgenic stress
Figure 30.9 bFigure 30.9 b
Low-latitude coastal regions and semi-enclosed seas(e.g. Baltic, Black, and Mediterranean)
Figure 30.7 a og bFigure 30.7 a og b
2 oC target
”Business as usual” Shellfish
Invertebrates
Vertebrates
ACIDIFICATIONACIDIFICATION
Figure 6.14Figure 6.14
Global climate change causes redistribution of species:Global climate change causes redistribution of species:
Reduction at low latitudes, increase at high latitudesReduction at low latitudes, increase at high latitudes
ICES Working Group on Widely distributed Stocks (WGWIDE).
Icelandic-Faroese-Norwegian cruise trawl survey on mackerel (Nøttestad et al. 2013)
Atlantic mackerel
From EU and Norway
to Iceland, Greenland
…and Russia?
Adaptation and mitigation for marine ecosystems?
* Reduce international conflicts: Develop commonly accepted rules for shared stocks under distributional changes
* Continue to develop ”ecosystem-based management of fish stocks
* Replace coral bleaching by warm(est) water species (e.g. from the Arabian Gulf)
”Climatic changes in the Arctic in relation to plants and animals”
Preface by Gunnar Rollefsen with Appendix: Enquiry into the Problem of Climate and Ecological Changes in Northern Waters
Introductory address by Hans W:son Ahlmann
A. Contribution to Physical Changes
Recent Climatic Fluctuations by Leo Lysgaard
The increase in the Sea Temperature in Northern Waters during Recent Years by Jens Smed
B. Contributions on Biological changes
On Changes in the Marine Fauna on the North- Western Atlantic Area, with special reference to Greenland by Å. Vedel Tåning
Boreo-tended Changes in the Marine Vertebrate Fauna of Iceland during the last 25 years by Arni Fredriksson
Fluctuations in the two most important Stocks of Fish in Northern Waters, the Cod and the Herring by Gunnar Rollefsen
On Changes inthe Distribution of Terrestrial Animals in Relation to Climatic Changes by Poul Jespersen
The Forecasting of Climatic Fluctuations and Its Importance to the Arctic Fisheries by Arthur Lee
?
Development of Barents Sea temperature
observations, 30-yr low-pass filter of observations, and modelled anthropogenic component