Global Pulse Scenario: Consumption, Production and Trade

P K Joshi and P Parthasarthy RaoSouth Asia Regional Office

International Food Policy Research InstituteE-mail: p.joshi@cigar.org; Web: www.ifpri-org

International Conference on “Pulses for Health, Nutrition and Sustainable Agriculture in Drylands”

Marrakech, Morocco, April 18-20, 2016

OutlinePulse consumption, demand and production

Regional patterns of pulses production

Global trade and prices of pulses

Global future outlook for pulses

Conclusions and way forward

Consumption and utilization of pulses

19611964

19671970

19731976

19791982

19851988

19911994

19972000

20032006

20090

102030405060708090

World Developed Developing

Food

(%)

19611963

19651967

19691971

19731975

19771979

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Feed

(%)

19611964

19671970

19731976

19791982

19851988

19911994

19972000

20032006

20090.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

World Developed Developing

Per c

apita

food

• Global demand for pulses is increasing• Around 70 m t in 2011-13

compared to 42 m t in 1980-81• But per capita consumption

declined (10 kg in 1961 to 6.5 kg in 2011); slow rise in recent years

• Diverse uses for food & feed• Developing countries 80% as

food• Developed countries <40% as

food

An illustration from India: pulse utilization

Direct food 13.8 m t (69%) Value added products 4.0 m t (20%) Seed 1.4 m t (7%) Miscellaneous 0.8 m t (4%)

Drivers of household consumption: role of demand elasticities

Consumer

Income

Price Overall

All 0.206 -0.45

6

-0.250

Poor 0.500 -0.69

9

-0.199

Rich 0.098 -0.34

5

-0.250

Price elasticity is more than income elasticity

Net elasticity is -0.250 Poor are more sensitive

to these elasticities Pe= -0.666 and Ie=

0.500 Consumption will be

stabilized if income increase is more than price increase

Pulses production and area Roughly 72 m t of pulses are produced from about 80 m ha

It was 45 mt from 64 m ha area in 1981-83 Global pulses production during 1980s increased

impressively (3.7%); stagnated (0.1%) during 1990s; and picked-up (2.2%) during 2000s. Yield gains was the main source of production increase during 1980s (62%) but area during 2000 (63%) Yields were increasing in developed countries,

while area in developing countries Share of Europe and Latin America is declining Pulses finding new niches in North America, Oceania and many African countries

Area and production of pulses

0.1

33.7

9.3

14.12.93.7

1.2

20.9

5.16.2

2.8 0.3

31.9

5.8

16.88.9

6.51.5

14.6

6.26.3

1.2

Bambara beansBeans, dryBroad beans, horse beans, dryChick peasCow peas, dryLentilsLupinsPeas, dryPigeon peasPulses, nesVetches

• Five pulses contribute about 80% of pulses production

• Dry beans tops the list (32%) followed by chickpea (17%) dry peas (14.6%);

Cowpea (9%) and lentils (6%)• Share of cowpea and

lentil increased from 6 to 15%

• Chickpea share marginally increased but dry beans declined

1981-83 2011-13

Yield of pulses versus cereals (kg/ha)

196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013

0500

10001500200025003000350040004500

Cereals Pulses

Yiel

d (k

g/ha

)

196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013

0500

1000150020002500300035004000450050005500

Developed cereals Developing cerealsDeveloped pulses Developing pulses

Yiel

d (k

g/ha

)

• Global pulse yield is less than 1000 kg/ha; which used to be 550 kg/ha in 1961

• But, global cereals yields increased rapidly• 1500 kg/ha in 1961 to 4000

kg/ha in 2013 • Cereal yields increased

significantly both in developed and developing countries

• Pulse yields increased mainly in developed countries until mid 1990s and thereafter stagnated

• In developing countries pulse yields were stagnant throughout and increased marginally only from mid 2005

Yield of all pulses in different countries, 2011-13

Canada

United States of America

China

Turkey

Ethiopia

Russian Federation

Australia

Myanm

ar

Brazil

Nigeria

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

United Republic of Tanzania

Mexico

India

Pakistan

Kenya

Uganda

Burkina Faso

Mozam

bique

Niger

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Yiel

d (k

g/ha

)

There is large inter-regional and inter-country yield variation

Average yields of developed countries was > 1.2 t/ha Canada > 2 t/ha; US near 2

t/ha Developing countries

average yield was <1 t/ha Myanmar and Ethiopia are

exception Most of the African and S

Asian countries yields are < 500 kg/ha

India: yield gaps between existing and potential (kg/ha)Source: Singh, NP and Saxena, MC. 2016. Towards self-sufficiency of pulses in India, Base paper for NAAS Brainstorming workshop on 8 April 2016

Blackgram Greengram lentil Pigeonpea Chickpea0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

596432

797 792

1014890 843

1047

1433 14351300

1400 1400

1800 1800

Yield gaps in pulses

Existing Demonstration Potential

High yield gaps ranging from 75% in lentil to 224% in green gram

Causes of high yield gaps Poor quality of seed Poor management

practices Bridge Yield gap I

Chickpea production will increase by 4.3 mt; and pigeon pea by 2.4 mt

Little efforts will take pulse production to 26-27 mt

Changing regional patterns in pulses production Asia & Africa share about 70% of all pulses;

showing rising trends Southeast Asia is emerging fastest growing region

in pulses (7.4%) Dry beans, chickpea and pigeon pea are gaining

importance Africa is also showing fast growing in pulses

production (4.6%) Chickpea and pigeon pea in East Africa and Cowpea in

West Africa Chickpea and pigeon pea showing increasing trends

in South Asia Among developed regions, North America led by

Canada and Oceania are showing rising trends (4.1%) Lentils in Canada and Chickpea and lentils in Oceania

Growing importance of pulses in many countries

- especially more vulnerable population

Nigeria

Tanza

niaIn

dia

Ugand

a

Burkin

a Fas

o

Mozam

bique

Kenya

Nigeria

Myanm

ar05

10152025303540

8.4 9.114

10 11.76.8

21.8

12.5

6.610.3

14.817.7 18.3 20.6 21.6

26.630.6

36.2

Share of pulse area in arable land, %

1980-82 2011-13

Region-wise self-sufficiency in pulses

Europe

Ocean

ia

North

Amer

ica

All de

velop

ed Asia

L Amer

ica &

Car

ibean

Africa

All de

velop

ing

Wes

t Asia

South

Asia

East A

sia

SE Asia

Centra

l Asia

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

0.96

2.27

3.03

1.56

0.890.931.020.930.720.811.021.24

1.55

Self-sufficiency ratio At aggregate level, Developed countries have surplus while deficit in developing countries Northern America has very

surplus, while Asia has high deficit

Self-sufficiency is increasing in developed countries and further declining in developing countries

West and South Asia are highly deficit in pulses Self-sufficiency is declining

fast over the years

Pulse trade: changing patterns Global pulse trade is about 12

million tons; it was 3 m t in 1980-82 and 6.5 m t in 1990-92 It is about 18% of total pulse production Developed countries shares 65% of all

exports Developing countries shares 82% of all

imports; South Asia shares about 40% of imports

Exports zooming from North America from 1990s led by Canada Canada, Myanmar, USA, Australia and

China account for 75% of all exports India is largest importing country

(3-4 m t) India, China, BD, Pakistan and Egypt

account about 62% of all imports

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Exp

orts

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

World (Pulses) Developed (Pulses)Developing (Pulses) World (Cereals)Developed (Cereals) Developing (Cereals)

Imp

orts

Exports

Imports

Growing importance of dry peas in trade

Imports Exports

Improve pulse value chain and correct price policy

Chickpea Lentil Greengram blackgram Pegionpea02000400060008000

10000120001400016000

3175 30754650 4425 4425

6000

8900 925010200

12000

6500

9500 1025012000

13500MSP Wholesale Retail

Consumer

Pulse prices

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

050

100150200250300350400450

Canada SpainRussian Federation United KingdomUnited States of America

Pro

du

cer

pri

ces

(US$

/ton

ne)

Dry peas

19611963

19651967

19691971

19731975

19771979

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Beans, dry Broad beans, horse beans, dryChick peas LentilsPeas, dry Pulses (Total)

Stage I: 1961-71 almost stagnatedStage II: 1971-85 increasing; peak for chickpea in 1979-80 & most pulses in 1981Stage III: 1985-03 volatile; peak for chickpea in 1995Stage IV: 2003 onward rising trend with peak in 2008Dry peas: Lower prices than other pulses; with peak in 2008 and then rising

Future pulse outlook (Source: Clancey 2009; Kumar et al 2009; Rao et al 2010)

Global pulse consumption may grow by 10% in coming decade and 23% by 2030; more rapidly in Africa and Asia Pulse consumption in Africa may rise 27% in next decade and 50% by

2030 In Asia, pulses consumption would increase by 12% in 2020 and by

24% in 2030 Yields to increase more than 1.5 times; not easy task

Or additional area under pulses to 6 m ha by 2020 and 10 m ha by 2030

Prices of pulses will increase Rising demand Non-availability of high-yielding technologies

Trade may increase; developing countries to import more Shift in consumption towards value added products

More private sector participation

Conclusions and way forward Demand for pulses is

growing but supply constraints will lead to rise in prices and increase trade

Pulses production and trade scenario in changing New countries are producing

pulses and exporting to deficit countries

Global level Increase funding for pulse

research Incentives for improved

technologies to public as well as private sector

Effective trade National level

Bridge yield gaps to increase domestic production

Improve pulse value chains to benefit producers and consumers

Attract private sector in pulses production, processing and marketing

Promote innovative institutions for scale

International Year of Pulses- 2016Commit ensuring pulses to poor at affordable prices

Thank you