Gabor Sarlos Ph.D. thesis

summary

ELTE Sociology Doctoral School, Interdisciplinary Doctoral ProgramBudapest - 2015

RISK AND BENEFIT MANIFESTATION IN THE COMMUNICATION NARRATIVES OF NUCLEAR ENERGY IN HUNGARY

๏ a nuclear plant is not simply a technical structure but a reflection of its social and environmental structure

๏ a relevant analysis studies the context of the complex interrelation with society and the environment

๏ the current thesis focuses on the social dimensions of the use and development of nuclear energy

๏ the thesis analyses the role of nuclear energy in the public sphere

the basics ⦿ .

SCOPE

focuses ⦿ .

SCOPE

๏ CONTENT - public discourse on nuclear energy is in the focus

๏ TIME FRAME - the original period of January 2010 - December 2013 has been extended to April 2009 - March 2014

๏ GEOGRAPHICAL SCOPE - has the Hungarian discourse in focus but is analysed in its European context

๏ METHODOLOGY - interdisciplinary approach, with content analysis, Critical Discourse Analysis, participant observation, statistical analysis and analysis of public sphere structure in the focus

theory of public sphere theory ⦿ .

THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS

1. THE PUBLIC SPHERE THEORY[HABERMAS, 1962] HAS LIMITED VALIDITY

๏ growing limitations of its validity amidst conditions of a modern industrial society (Fraser, 1990, Eley, 1992)

๏ lacking ‘normative conditions of the idealised public sphere’ (Dahlberg, 2005)

๏ decreasing role, even possible termination of media with social representation

๏ dominance of manipulation, driven by editorial and publishing filtering mechanisms (Chomsky and Herman, 1988)

the role of language in discourse formulation ⦿ .

2. LANGUAGE PLAYS DOMINANT ROLE IN FORMULATION OF NUCLEAR DISCOURSE

๏ minimisation of the possibility of discourse due to extending the framing of political alienism (Szabó, 2006) to actors in the nuclear discourse

๏ identification of power and authoritative relations through the analysis of language structures, use of language and social determination, based on the methodology of Critical Discourse Analysis (van Dijk, 1991, Fairclough, 1995)

๏ language takes part in the creation of a “constructed public sphere” and of “parallel realities”

THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS

change in role of media ⦿ .

3. SOCIAL MEDIA EXPANSION MODIFIES ROLE OF MEDIA

๏ people lack chance for first hand experience, media role sees upgrade

๏ the agenda setting theory (McCombs and Shaw, 1972), editorial news value accreditation (Tamás, 2000, Török, 2001) and ideological motivation (Fowler, 1991) cause media miss representation of complexity of nuclear issue

๏ new communication technologies and media (Heller and Rényi, 1996) have modification effect, while the network society upgrades the role of every communication actor (Castells, 2009)

๏ media contributes to the construction of the nuclear reality (Berger and Luckmann, 1966) and of the parallel realities

THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS

the importance of risk and benefit perception and interpretation ⦿

4. THE ‘RISKS AND BENEFITS’ NARRATIVE IS IN THE FOCUS ON NUCLEAR DISCOURSE

๏ views and values related to perception, communication and handling of risk reflects society’s view on development. In the nuclear case, risk bears relevance to each member of the society (Beck, 1992, 2006)

๏ the process of weighing risks builds on objective (statistics based) and subjective (feeling and value based) elements (Vári, 2009) and is organically related to the individual and to a set of shared values (Schwartz, 1977)

๏ attitude to technological development (Felt and Wynne, 2007) and trust in the institutions managing the risk (Slovic, 2000) are decisive factors in relation to nuclear energy

THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS

political discourse ⦿ .

KEY FINDINGS

METHODOLOGY: DISCOURSE ANALYSIS BASED ON 200+ PARLIAMENTARY ADDRESSES ON THE NUCLEAR ISSUE

๏ parliamentary addresses do not reference and do not compose a discourse

๏ education, party affiliation and the attributed value set of the electorate defines MPs standpoint on nuclear energy

๏ based on the risks and benefits expressed in the addresses the Risk Manifestation Index of each party can be drawn. The parties follow a full front, an avoidance or a re-direction strategy

๏ the communication pattern of the individual actors reflect changes in political strategy as well as the attributed value set of their electorate

professional discourse ⦿ .

METHODOLOGY: AS MODERATOR, PARTICIPANT OBSERVATION AT THE AARHUS ROUNDTABLE AND WORKING GROUP, DESIGNED TO ENSURE RIGHT OF ACCESS TO ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION

๏ actors with different objectives represent different models in the process: initiators, reacting parties, observers and facilitators

๏ in theory, Aarhus roundtable provides the framework for the creation of a discourse, but significant differences in objectives hinder its development

๏ for the majority of participants, the Aarhus roundtable appears as obligation due to constraint. Informational unbalance stops development of discourse.

๏ measuring intensity of involvement in Aarhus roundtable, together with intensity of identification with nuclear agenda allows drafting Aarhus sociogram

KEY FINDINGS

professional discourse ⦿ .

KEY FINDINGS

media discourse ⦿ .

METHODOLOGY: CONTENT ANALYSIS OF 4 DAILY PAPERS (ONLINE EDITIONS) (OCT-DEC 2012, OCT-DEC 2013) AND FURTHER

INTERVIEWS AND REPORTS (JAN-MAR 2014)

๏ nuclear discourse is dominated by political and economic narratives

๏ financial benefits and financial risks are dominant arguments in the discourse, however, in the case of benefits, actual operations are in the focus while the framework for risks is the full nuclear cycle

๏ narratives focusing on benefits reflect linear approach while risk focused narratives reflect systemic approach

๏ the period Oct-Dec 2013 brought a change in narrative, the appearance of significantly different argumentations, headlines and titles moving from descriptive to normative character

KEY FINDINGS

opinion polls ⦿ .

METHODOLOGY: COMPARISON OF 6 OPINION POLLS IN THE PERIOD 2009-2013

๏ significant differences in outcome and conclusions among polls from the same period

๏ differences in findings can be attributed to different background and purpose of research, exact timing of the poll, context and wording of questions, order and structure of questions as well as the focus of the research (Hungarian or international)

๏ communication of results forms part of communication

๏ need for communicative argumentation overwrites need of learning public opinion, implying manipulative approach to poll design and use of results

KEY FINDINGS

title poll datesupport nuclear

oppose nuclear

support Paks

oppose Paks

referendum participatio

n

Nuclear safety/

Eurobarometer

Sept 2009 - - - - -

Fukusima / Ipsos Global

March 2011 41% 59% 38% 62% -

referendum/Medián

July 2011 - - 36% 58% -

Nuclear - Paks TNS Hoffmann

July 2011 73% 25% 51% 44% -

Nuclear attitude Medián

July 2012 - - 42% 51% 56%

Nuclear - Paks TNS Hoffmann

Aug 2013 76% 21% 50% 38% 56%

opinion polls ⦿ .

KEY FINDINGS

opinion polls ⦿ .

METHODOLOGY: OWN RESEARCH CONDUCTED AS PART OF IPSOS OBSERVER OMNIBUS SURVEY (JULY 2013)

๏ nuclear energy is not among the important or well known public issues

๏ Paks expansion supported by 47,5%, opposed by 52,5% of population. referendum on Paks expansion supported by 33,4%, opposed by 47,4%, uncertain 20%

๏ men would rather prefer expansion, while the relative majority of women would rather oppose to this idea

๏ people with higher education rather support both expansion and referendum

๏ neither questions shows significant correlation with income and age of respondents

KEY FINDINGS

European context ⦿ .

METHODOLOGY: LITERATURE REVIEW

๏ decisions on use of nuclear energy (referendums, parliamentary resolutions, government measures) in European countries are not necessarily are not necessarily infinite

๏ discourse in each country reflects general as well as country and culture specific patterns. value set of a given society bears its mark on the dominant narratives

๏ though in each country risk and benefit manifestation reflects national characteristics, but the issue of security seems the dominant public framing - though interpreted in different contexts

KEY FINDINGS

following the Hungarian-Russian nuclear deal ⦿ .

METHODOLOGY: MEDIA DISCOURSE ANALYSIS

๏ the deal brought intensification and change of the discourse:

๏emergence of new actors, changes in meta-framing with the emergence of the “Putin factor”, arise of new aspects, leap in media activity, differences in narratives become more visible

๏ validity of European context grows

๏ all these contribute to a forthcoming new framing and of a discourse with higher quality

KEY FINDINGS

outlook to the future ⦿ .

ROADMAP TO THE DEMOCRATISATION OF THE NUCLEAR DISCOURSE:

๏ new model of public participation

๏ engagement of stakeholders, including the public

๏ institutionalisation of new decision making methodology

๏ sharing of information, reduction of informational unbalance

๏ use of digital communication tools

๏ increase in trust towards institutions managing risk

KEY FINDINGS

Gabor Sarlos Ph.D. thesis

summary

ELTE Sociology Doctoral School, Interdisciplinary Doctoral ProgramBudapest - 2015

RISK AND BENEFIT MANIFESTATION IN THE COMMUNICATION NARRATIVES OF NUCLEAR ENERGY IN HUNGARY