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Joint A4NH/ISPC workshop on nutrition
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Agricultural Policy – getting beyond
the pre-occupation with staple crops
College of Agriculture and Life Sciences
Prabhu Pingali
Professor & Director
Tata-Cornell Agriculture and Nutrition Initiative
Agriculture & Food Supply Policies
Persistence of Green Revolution focus on staple grains
Poor support for coarse grains, legumes, lentils, etc
Lack of attention to high relative prices of micro-nutrient
dense food – horticulture, livestock products
High costs of smallholder linkage to organized food
chains
2
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011
World
kc
al/
ca
pita
/da
y
Other
Animal fats
Meat
Fruits - Excluding Wine
Vegetable Oils
Pulses
Sugar & Sweeteners
Starchy Roots
Other cereals
Rice (Milled Equivalent)
Maize and products
Wheat and products
Source: FAOSTAT
Global average dietary composition,
1969-2011
Source: FAOSTAT
37% 42% 41%
8%
9% 11%
40%
41% 42%
14%
8% 6%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011
World
kc
al/
ca
pita
/da
y
Wheat and products Maize and products
Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals
Source: FAOSTAT
Global calorie consumption from
cereals 1969-2011
23% 30% 36%
8% 15% 23%
1% 3% 6%
23% 29% 37%
18% 21% 30%
5%
4% 4%
79% 81% 66%
4% 7%
3% 10% 6%
48% 34% 31%
50%
52% 51%
1%
1% 8%
99%
93%
87% 71% 60%
56%
33% 43% 38%
22%
13% 9%
11%
3% 3%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1% 1%
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
19
69
-19
71
19
89
-19
91
20
09
-20
11
19
69
-19
71
19
89
-19
91
20
09
-20
11
19
69
-19
71
19
89
-19
91
20
09
-20
11
19
69
-19
71
19
89
-19
91
20
09
-20
11
19
69
-19
71
19
89
-19
91
20
09
-20
11
India Kenya Thailand Japan Colombia
kcal
/cap
ita/
day
Wheat and products Maize and products Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cerealsSource: FAOSTAT
Changes in calorie consumption from
cereals in select countries, 1969-1971
Diets in developing countries will
continue to diversify...
Source: FAO, World agriculture: towards 2015/2030
… but staple crop production trends
don’t reflect diet diversification
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011
1000 t
on
s
Wheat and products Maize and products
Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals
Global cereal production, 1969-2011
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011
1000 t
on
s
Wheat and products Maize and products
Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals
Global cereal food consumption
1969-2011
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011
1000 t
on
s
Wheat and products Maize and products
Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals
Difference in global cereal production and
food consumption 1969-2011
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011
1000 t
on
s
Wheat and products Maize and products
Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals
Cereal production in Sub-Saharan
Africa 1969-2011
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011
1000 t
on
s
Wheat and products Maize and products
Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals
Cereal food consumption in Sub-
Saharan Africa 1969-2011
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011
1000 t
on
s
Wheat and products Maize and products
Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals
Difference in cereal production and food
consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa 1969-
2011
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011
10
00
to
ns
Wheat and products Maize and products
Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals
Cereal production in Southern Asia
1969-2011
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011
1000 t
on
s
Wheat and products Maize and products
Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals
Cereal consumption in Southern Asia
1969-2011
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011
1000 t
on
s
Wheat and products Maize and products
Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals
Difference in cereal production and food
consumption in Southern Asia 1969-2011
Source: NSSO Reports: Household Consumption Expenditure in India
Declining per capita cereal consumption rural and urban India 1993/94 and 2004/05
Why is producer response low?
Price supports, input subsidies & R&D biased towards stale
crop productivity growth
Poorly developed market infrastructure for perishable
products – fruit, vegetables, dairy & meat
High skill & knowledge requirements for switching to
higher value crops
High transactions costs for smallholder integration into the FFV value chains
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
% e
xc
ess
In
dia
n o
ve
r in
t'l
Excess of Indian over international prices (%) 1983-
2014
Rice
Wheat
Domestic & International prices for
staple cereals – India, 1983 - 2014
Food Security Policies –
staple grain fundamentalism
Conflating food security with a narrowly defined set of
staple grains
High emphasis on price supports & trade distortions
High cost of managing and disposing “Food Security Stocks”
Disconnect between the policy & the food security
needs of the rural poor
Donor funding and CGIAR priorities
are not consistent with the diet
transformation
What are the options for crop-
neutral intensification?
Level playing field for policy support
Infrastructure investments for transport & storage of perishable products
Market development – investment in local markets, and reduce transactions costs of integrating into value chains
Rationalize food stock policies, including local procurement & stocking options
Delinking individual food security from national staple grain self-sufficiency
24
Thank You
Learn more about the Tata-Cornell Agriculture & Nutrition Initiative
at
http://tci.cals.cornell.edu
and
http://blogs.cornell.edu/agricultureandnutrition/
