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John Blossom presentation from the 31 October 2014 National Research Council open science forum at the National Academy of Sciences in Washington, DC. Presentation focuses on the shifting value of expert insights in a global, mobile real-time economy, how existing models combining open and proprietary publishing have succeeded greatly, how the shifting role of experts into the realm of the collaborative has misplaced the value proposition for scientific publishing and how the concept of "signal" from trillions of Web-enabled sensors and semantic inputs pushes information services to provide more analytic and predictive information services to serve scientists needing to devise, implement and replicate scientific inquiry.
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The New Role of ExpertiseOpen Science in a Web of Sensors, Senses and Semantics
John Blossom, Shore Communications Inc.31 October 2014
About Shore
● Content Marketing Strategists
o For publishing and content technology products & services in enterprise and media markets
● We provide:
o Market research, intelligence & analysis
o Marketing strategy review and advice
o Go-to-market content and services
● Recognized:
o Twice-awarded EContent 100 Company
o SIIA CODiE – Best Media Blog
shorecominc.com
What is at issue?
The challenge of 21st century innovation
What is today’s SciTech challenge?
● Curation and copyright vs. innovation and interaction?
● Subscriber access vs public/open access?
● Impact ratings vs. social media “clout”?
All this, to be sure, and yet...
There is a broader issue in play.
● What is the value of expert insights in a global,
mobile real-time economy?
o How is that value realized through publishing?
o What forces are shaping its value in this economy
independent of publishing?
And huge implications if we blow it.
“Shareholder value” is not scaled to global
challenges
How do we get to “aha” better?
Does publishing today create value for discovery?
How do we monetize “aha” moments?
Is our expertise really paying off through discovery?
Other industries have faced this.
● What happened to financial publishing?
o Real-time insights in global markets trumped reports
o The most profitable analysis became automated
o Wide & equal access to public information sources
It seemed to have an impact.
Open builds proprietary advantages.
The competitive cost of not adapting is high
o When customers’ money is spent better they respond
Source: Gartner, Inc.
Is scientific publishing different?
● In some ways, yes. But not as much as you think.
o Your information isn’t there when they need it most
o So your customers are finding insights anyway
o They have to if they’re going to keep up
economically
So what is open science really about?
● It’s about adjusting the value of publishing
o Report/data distribution value = ￠
o Moving to the next right insight ASAP = $$$$$
o Getting the right feedback at the right time = $$$$$
Why impact ratings won’t save you.
● Careers move too fast for them
o Tenure-track positions not as economically valuable
● Research funding moves too fast for them
o International competition in a tight economy
= money flows fast to the fastest innovation
Why copyright won’t save you.
● May isolate content from its most valuable contexts
o Is this information really valuable right now?
o Can I extract meaning from it later efficiently?
Why libraries won’t save you.
● Information professionals face same expert
challenge
o Search engines push them into collaborative roles
o Global enterprises less likely to fund collections - and
their managers - that don’t produce tangible results
Soooo...why am I subscribing?
● “Because you have to” is not a growth strategy
o For your clients or for their clients
● Technical fixes won’t eliminate adaptive pressures
o Expertise creates value today in new patterns
A new approach to expertise
Confronting the shifting role of the
expert
Why today’s expertise is different
● Knowledge and discovery moves fast globally
o Reputation as guaranteed insight less certain
● Pushes experts into the realm of the collaborative
o As their hierarchical, technical problem-solver role is
automated, focuses more on peer idea exploration
Experts moving from...
● Creating economic value out of effective signalso Driving innovation
o Exploiting more “blue skies”
o Accelerating marketing
o Support as research
● From expert-driven
decision making to
collaborative, data-driven
decision making
● Marketing before markets are defined
Basic diagram source: Cognitive Edge Pty.
(Accepted Hypotheses)(Valuable Hypotheses)
(No Hypotheses) (Applied Hypotheses)
EXPERTS
SYSTEMSDATA
Temporary
Collaboration
Experts moving to...
● Creating economic value out of effective signalso Driving innovation
o Exploiting more “blue skies”
o Accelerating marketing
o Support as research
● From expert-driven
decision making to
collaborative, data-driven
decision making
● Marketing before markets are defined
Basic diagram source: Cognitive Edge Pty.
$(Accepted Hypotheses)(Valuable Hypotheses)
(No Hypotheses) (Applied Hypotheses)
EXPERTS
in perpetual
collaboration
SYSTEMS
SYSTEMS
DATA via
perpetual systems
(SIGNAL)
...But publishing services aren’t there.
● Focused mostly on certifying knowledge for the
domain of the “complicated”
o A domain that’s moving towards automation!
● Ignoring the rise of more easily absorbed data
o As chaotic domains become understood as signal
The role of signal for discovery
A new information economy emerges
What is signal?
● sig·nal ˈsignəl/ noun“A gesture, action, or sound that is used to
convey information or instructions”
● Clear status & action indicators
derived from complex inputs
● Highly actionable
information at the
right time & place
Everything can generate signal
Internet Protocol Version 6 provides
340 trillion trillion trillion addresses!
EVERY THING in the world
can send signal via the Web
and Web-aware networks
The world IS signal
The economic impact of signal
FROM:
Information
Autocategorization
Building data sets
Extracting entities
Computing
Analysis
Rapidly scalable resources
Massive data sets
Real-time artificial intelligence
Signifying vs. storage + retrieval
Signal: Everything is analyzable
Signal: Everything has syntax
Knowing relationship, focus and intent in real-time
Signal: Everything is predictive
Mass prediction
of personal
demand & action
Signal: Redefining innovation
An economy of signal-driven markets
...using less time, fewer resources
and more effective filtering of options
Understand and fulfill unique demands at scale
before others even see them
An economy of tailored production
Signal drives scalable micromarkets rapidly
How does signal change science?
● The world is modeling itself in data constantly
o Dynamic hypothesis formulation, testing & application
● Avoiding data fragmentation is key
o Public signal resources can increase research efficiency
What to do?
Responding to new requirements for
delivering discovery and insights
What to do now?
● Experts focused on collaboration need a new
generation of publishing and discovery services
o Collaborative innovators more dispersed and less likely to
have budget for collection access
o Need to address opportunities & challenges of both signal and
automated insight technologies that act on hypotheses quickly
What publishers like to look like.
MediaData
Editorial
Text
Distribution
Where the Web moved you.
Your StuffSites/Apps x
Search/
Distribution
Social
Demand
Where you could be moving.
Your StuffSensors/ x
Big Data x
Analytics
Web &
Gov’t
Stuff
Predictive
Services
Your to-do list
1. Focus on developing systems for collaborative expertso “How can we develop good hypotheses for action more efficiently?”
o “What is data saying now?”
o “What are ‘failures’ telling us?”
2. Consider adaptive responseso Not just technical/tactical issues
o What “DNA” is really essential to retain
o How can people & institutions adapt with integrity
3. Use open science to lower costs for collaborationo Lower the cost of data to build ROI-driven insight services
A closing thought...
.”..Something can be a real failure until it’s not. It’s just an absolute dud until it’s a hit.
So you have to be able to sense those early indicators of success, and the
leadership has to really lean in and not let things die on the vine. When you have a $70
billion business, something that’s $1 million can feel irrelevant. But that $1 million
business might be the most relevant thing we are doing.”
- Satya Nadella, CEO, Microsoft
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John BlossomPresident
Shore Communications Inc.
80 Talcott Road
Guilford, CT 06437-5002 USA
