UCAR Congressional Lunch Briefing September 13, 2016

John McHenry Chief Scientist: Advanced Meteorological Systems Baron Services, Huntsville, AL

Using National Water Model Results to Benefit Industry

Using National Water Model Results to Benefit Industry

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•  Baron  is  an  “end-­‐to-­‐end”  US-­‐based  commercial  weather  company    •  Baron  partners  with  industry,  government,  and  the  research  community              to  develop/deploy  cri>cal  weather  intelligence  to  reduce  harm  to  people              and  property  as  a  result  of  severe  weather-­‐related  phenomena      

Critical Weather Intelligence

Using National Water Model Results to Benefit Industry

Because  flood-­‐related  disasters  top  the  list  as  most  frequent,  Baron              is  deeply  commi8ed  to  helping  decrease  the  resul:ng  impacts  

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•  Flood disasters are the most frequent kind of natural disaster as measured by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction

•  There has been a dramatic increase in the number of flood disasters over the last 15 years

•  Population exposed to the potential for flood disasters is increasing

•  Flood disasters tend to have (not always) a human-made component, due to the need to manage water resources [Water Too Much, Too Little]

The  newly  deployed  Na:onal  Water  Model  has  significant  promise  toward  helping  achieve  this  goal.  

Critical Weather Intelligence

Using National Water Model Results to Benefit Industry

Thus  à    Industry  will  benefit  from  Na:onal  Water  Model  results:  •  The  Na>onal  Water  Model  drama>cally  increases  the  number  of  loca>ons  

and  lead  >mes  at  which  floods  are  forecast  Example    à      

•  The  Na>onal  Water  Model  has  the  promise  to  allow  businesses  to  significantly  reduce  property  loss  through  asset  reloca:on  before  the  event  occurs  (much  less  expensive).    

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Critical Weather Intelligence

Critical Weather Intelligence

Using National Water Model Results to Benefit Industry

Example:  Business  Assets  Affected  in  2016  –  Major  US  Floods  

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•  West  Virginia  Floods  (late  June)    

•  Texas  Floods  including  Fort  Hood              Disaster  (Spring)    

•  Ellico<  City  Maryland  (late  July)    

•  Louisiana  Floods  (August)    

BEFORE  

AFTER  

Using National Water Model Results to Benefit Industry

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•  Texas  Floods:                At  least  20  deaths  •  West  Virginia  Floods:                At  least  26  deaths  •  Ellico<  City  Floods:                2  deaths  •  Louisiana  Floods:              at  least  13  deaths  

Furthermore  à    Human  Life  and  Personal  Property  will  also  benefit  from  Na:onal  Water  Model  results:  

•  Again,  because  The  Na>onal  Water  Model  drama>cally  increases  the  number  of  loca>ons  and  lead  >mes  at  which  floods  are  forecast  

Example    à      •  The  Na>onal  Water  Model  has  the  promise  to  allow  people  to  take  life  

and  property  saving  ac>ons  at  >mes  and  loca>ons  they  previously  could  not  

Critical Weather Intelligence

Using National Water Model Results to Benefit Industry

Companies  like  Baron  are  Vital  to  Communica>ng  the  Threats  and  Warnings  resul>ng  from  the  Na>onal  Water  Model  that  enable  ac:onable  intelligence  

baronweather.com

Critical Weather Intelligence

Using National Water Model Results to Benefit Industry

The  Na>onal  Water  Model  ushers  in  a    “new  era”  for  the  availability  of  opera>onal  flood  and  flash  flood  forecas>ng  

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Example:  

Critical Weather Intelligence

Using National Water Model Results to Benefit Industry

Conclusions  

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•  By  drama>cally  increasing  the  geographic  coverage  and  site-­‐specific  loca>on  of                forecasted  rivers  and  streams-­‐-­‐as  well  as  the  lead  >mes  for  those  forecasts-­‐-­‐              the  Na>onal  Water  Model  ushers  in  a  "new  era"  in  the  availability  of  opera>onal                flood  and  flash-­‐flood  forecas>ng.    

•  Industry  and  the  general  public  will  benefit  through  reduc>on  in              lives  and  property  lost.    

•  Partnering  with  governments  and  the  research  community,              companies  like  Baron  will  be  essen>al  in  >mely  communica>on  of  Na>onal              Water  Model  results  in  order  to  maximize  its  promise  to  the  American  people  

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