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Having a set of trading rules and conditions that you look for when
searching out trading opportunities is really one of the keys to success.
It doesn't matter if you use a 80-90% mechanical system like Counterpunch
or DST from Netpicks that plots out the opportunity or you use a
discretionary method based on sound market truths.
Without rules or demanding certain market conditions exist, you are most likely just guessing and that is no way
to expect a long and successful trading career.
With the mechanical systems, the trading rules and conditions are built
into the system and once an opportunity sets up according to the
system rules, all the relevant information (entry, stops, and targets)
is printed on the chart.
For many people, this is probably a great route to go in their trading
career.
http://www.netpicks.com/trading-systems/
Executed properly, you do have a slightly easier time bypassing many of
the biases traders face during their trading career. The key to mechanical
trading is sticking to the trade plan perfectly.
Discretionary is different but contrary to the name, there are still rules
involved. Success in trading discretionary means not wishing and hoping the setup is a trade or seeing
things that are not there.
It involves conditions that must be present and close is close enough is
often times an overriding rule.
I am currently short the USDCAD Forex pair and I think breaking down the
trade will highlight discretion, simple concepts, and truths about the market
that we often hear.
The USDCAD has been moving up for quite a while and this chart shows how
the pauses in the uptrend resolved.
"A" is a beautiful test of the lows of the range solidly rejected and price broke with momentum "B" has lower momentum into this range but strong break to the upside
Once the support zone broke with momentum, I was only alert for a pause and then another leg down.
The key for this trade was: Momentum on the break
After the break I got the pause I was looking for. These was a bullish green candle that failed to take the currency
pair much higher. Once the momentum showed up to the
downside, I placed a sell stop order to get in when the market broke lower.
The downward triangle shows the trade trigger and the same day the
trade started to take heat. The next day the trade was well under way.
I am well aware that the overall trend of this pair on my time frames is to the upside. That simply means that I will not let a rally go too far before exiting
on the trade.
The reason for the counter-trend trade is simple: The price action and
structure gave me a valid reason to take a short trade.
The trade dropped 175 pips from entry and is finding itself held up at the area
marked "A" in the first chart.
There were conditions that I needed to take place for this particular trade:
Steady directional trend Higher momentum thrust into "B" than previous moves Range formation Break of support zone Some type of flag formation
Some may classify those as "rules" but for me they were conditions of the
market that had to take place in order to be interested in a trade to the
downside.
For the entry, I needed a strong break of the pattern to the downside which occurred. This allowed me to stop my way into the trade which would mean price was heading in my direction at
the time of entry. The stop was placed above the range just outside the range
of failure tests.
Management would be scale at 1R and watch for declining interest in the
downward move. This can take many forms but the key is to ensure that
neither fear nor greed have any place in the decision making process.
You can see that this was a well thought out swing trading opportunity
which was only possible because conditions and trading rules worked
hand in hand. Both must be present in order to set yourself up with viable
trading opportunities and to put your money at risk.
I will also make a case to not take a trade but that will rely on the chart. I will use what I know about how price moves and what things can mean to
not involve myself in a possible trade.
Too many listen to the news, read the forums, or use methods that don't
take into account the actual mechanics behind the market. Every reason that you come up with to trade or not to
trade must come from you.
Much like a lawyer in court, every piece of evidence is weighted and stacked upon previous declared
evidence. They build their case to the best of their ability, rest their case, and
then let the results play out as they will.