Can India prevail? A statistical analysis of the ongoing T20 worldcup 3/21/2014

Submitted by:

Sugyan Panda, SIOM

Can India Prevail?

For the Indian cricket fans India has always been a most favoured nation for any cricket cup.

The winning of first ever T20 world cup has increased their expectation by many folds. After the first

one India couldn’t perform up to their expectation in any other T20 world cup.

Here is an analysis showing the potential of the current team to win another world cup. The step by

step analysis represents the current situation, who could be the possible key players and what

changes can be done in the current way of playing.

The Process:

Step 1: Average total score in one innings in winning causes

How is it calculated?

Complete data for the winning causes are taken

Average runs per over was calculated

Average total score for 1 innings was calculated (20*avg rpo)

This method of calculating the average score removes the no. of over India batted when

they played in 2nd innings and it also removes the biasness arises due to situational

batting.

Inferences:

The average RPO calculated was 8.463 with a standard deviation of 1.176

The average total score in one innings can be calculated as = 20 * 8.463 = 169.23

So, total innings score of 169 will increase the chances of winning the match for

India.

The average total score of Indian team in one innings in winning causes

Possible average total score that can be scored by the current Indian team in one innings

What could be the possible results and what would be the strategy

11109876

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

RPO

Fre

qu

en

cy

Mean 8.463

StDev 1.176

N 25

Histogram of RPONormal

(Minitab output for winning causes)

Team Score Overs RPO Inns Result Opposition India 218/4 20 10.9 1 won v England

India 211/4 19.1 11 2 won v Sri Lanka India 202/4 19.4 10.27 2 won v Australia

India 192/5 20 9.6 1 won v Pakistan India 188/5 20 9.4 1 won v Australia

India 186/5 20 9.3 1 won v South Africa

India 180/5 20 9 1 won v Bangladesh India 174/7 19.2 9 2 won v Sri Lanka

India 170/4 20 8.5 1 won v England India 168/6 20 8.4 1 won v South Africa

India 167/3 18.1 9.19 2 won v Australia India 159/6 20 7.95 1 won v West Indies

India 159/5 20 7.95 1 won v Afghanistan

India 158/5 17.5 8.85 2 won v England India 157/5 20 7.85 1 won v Pakistan

India 155/3 20 7.75 1 won v Sri Lanka India 153/5 20 7.65 1 won v South Africa

India 152/6 20 7.6 1 won v South Africa India 144/3 18 8 2 won v Zimbabwe

India 135/2 19.4 6.86 2 won v Australia

India 129/2 17 7.58 2 won v Pakistan India 127/4 19.5 6.4 2 won v South Africa

India 116/3 14.5 7.82 2 won v Afghanistan India 113/2 15.3 7.29 2 won v Ireland

India 112/4 15 7.46 2 won v Zimbabwe

(Average RPO in different causes)

Step 2: Possible total score that can be scored by the current Indian team in

one innings

How is it calculated?

Collect the data containing the average score and strike rate of each player

Calculate the weighted average strike rate for the team (= avg score * strike rate/total avg

score)

Calculate the total score that can be scored in 20 overs with this weighted average strike

rate (= wght avg strike rate * 120/100)

Add the extras that India could get if they bat for 20 overs.

Player

No. of Innings Played Total Score Average Ball Faced Strike rate

avg score * stikerate

Yuvraj Singh 32 868 33.38 567 153.08 5109.8104

SK Raina 33 859 33.03 630 136.34 4503.3102

MS Dhoni 40 772 32.16 672 114.88 3694.5408

V Kohli 19 587 34.52 450 130.44 4502.7888

RG Sharma 29 539 28.36 424 127.12 3605.1232

AM Rahane 7 174 24.85 142 122.53 3044.8705

RA Jadeja 10 74 10.57 88 84.09 888.8313

R Ashwin 5 53 26.5 44 120.45 3191.925

S Dhawan 2 37 18.5 30 123.33 2281.605

SUM Total 241.87 30822.8052

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

Total

RP

O

lost

tied

won

weighted avg strike rate 127.4354207

Possible score 152.88

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ave

rage

strike rate

AM Rahane

MS Dhoni

R Ashwin

RA Jadeja

RG Sharma

S Dhawan

SK Raina

V Kohli

Yuvraj Singh

153.1

136.3

114.9

130.4 127.1 122.5

84.1

120.5 123.3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Strike rate

Strike rate

Extras

India has received 6.1% of their total score in extras.

So adding 6% of score to the above calculated average score, we can conclude that at an average

India could get an average of 9 runs as extras.

Inferences:

Total possible score in 20 overs = 153 + 9 = 162

This analysis shows with the current batting line up India could possibly score at an average of 162

runs per innings.

Step 3: Strategy

Obviously India has to score faster than the average strike rate to win the matches. So the key points

they should focus on are:

Change the order of batting line up by putting R. Jadeja (strike rate of 84.1) into 7th or 8th

place.

Give the key players (Yuvraj Singh, Virat Kohli and Suresh Raina ) better opportunities so

they can play without any pressure.

Rest other players should focus more on scoring a little faster instead of focusing more on

scoring high personal score.

What is the probability that India could win a game with a total score

of 162 per innings

13121110987654

0.35

0.30

0.25

0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00

X

De

nsi

ty

8.1 8.463

Distribution PlotNormal, Mean=8.463, StDev=1.176

162 runs in an innings is equivalent to 8.1 runs per over.

The average winning RPO for India is 8.463

Calculating the Z value from it

𝑍 =X−Mean

Std Deviation = 0.308

So area under the curve = 0.148

0.5-0.148 = 0.352

So there is 35% Chance that India could win the match with a score of 162 in

20 overs.

5 questions that could be asked by customer (Customer -

Coach/Captain/Selector)

1. Who should be taken in the team and who should be considered in playing 11?

2. What should be the batting/bowling order?

3. What are the other factors that affect the team’s performance?

4. Should they go for bowling or batting if they win the toss and what are the factors influence

this decisions?

5. What are the weaknesses of players of against team?

Source: www.espncricinfo.com