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Is Sachin Tendulkar a match winner ?
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Indian Cricket• Cricket is the national obsession of 1.3
billion people• Indian cricket industry is estimated to be
over $ 1 trillion• IPL is the 5th largest sports league in the
world in 3 years
The ProtagonistSachin Tendulkar
-93 Centuries-Highest run getter in history of
cricket- 20 years of cricketing -Considered the best batsman
of all times-Indian icon -Not Tiger Woods !!!
The Great Indian Cricket Debate
Is Sachin Tendulkar a match winner for India ?- 264,000 Google pages
- Fragmented studies (based on centuries, events, etc)
- Scores of debates
- Divided opinion
Data• 20 years of Sachin’of
statistics covering ODI and Tests (no T20)
• 20 years of Indian team’s performance
• Performance normalized based on fantasy league scoring
Analysis• Regression
Comparison
Inzamam Ul Haq
Pakistan Cricket Team
Ricky Ponting
Australian Cricket Team
The Verdict
Data Conditioning
• Data extracted from www.cricinfo.com• Only ODI data considered• A player’s all round performance per
match is calculated as
Perf = Runs Scored + (Wickets taken X 20) + (Fielding dismissals X 10)
• Each wicket taken is equivalent to 20 runs• Each fielding dismissal is equivalent to 10 runs
HA = India wins when Sachin performs better than his average
Two Sample TSachin’s Performance when
India wins Vs loses N Mean StDev SE Mean
Loss 192 40.7 38.4 2.8Win 222 60.3 45.5 3.1
95% CI for difference: (-27.74, -11.53)P-Value = 0.000
Sachin’s average performance for all games is
51.24
HA = Sachin scores a larger % of India’s runs when India wins
Two Sample TPercentage of India’s runs scored by
Sachin N Mean StDev SE MeanLoss % 192 14.3 13.9 1.0Win % 222 20.1 17.2 1.2
95% CI for difference: (-8.85, -2.84)P-Value = 0.000
HA = India’s Margin of defeat/victory depends on Sachin’s score
Equation “Margin = - 22.9 + 0.640 Sachin’s score”P=0.000 R-Sq = 7.7%
Comparison
Inzamam Ul Haq
Pakistan Cricket Team
Ricky Ponting
Australian Cricket Team
By popular demand …..
New Comparison
M.S Dhoni
Current Captain of Indian Cricket Team
Wicket Keeper
Bats lower down the order
Rahul Dravid
Former Captain of Indian Cricket Team
Part time Wicket Keeper
Bats higher up the order
HA = Sachin, Dhoni and Dravid contribute differently when India wins
HA = Sachin, Dhoni and Dravid contribute differently when India wins
One-way ANOVA: Score versus Player
Source DF SS MS F PPlayer 2 27221 13610 8.35 0.000Error 465 757701 1629Total 467 784921
S = 40.37 R-Sq = 3.47% R-Sq(adj) = 3.05%
Individual 95% CIs For Mean Based on Pooled StDevLevel N Mean StDev ----+---------+---------+---------
+-----Dhoni 86 53.73 37.64 (----------*----------)Dravid 160 43.24 33.69 (-------*-------)Sachin 222 60.35 45.46 (-----*------) ----+---------+---------+---------
+----- 40.0 48.0 56.0
64.0
Pooled StDev = 40.37
Tukey ComparisonTukey 95% Simultaneous Confidence IntervalsAll Pairwise Comparisons among Levels of Player
Individual confidence level = 98.03%
Player = Dhoni subtracted from:
Player Lower Center Upper --------+---------+---------+---------+-Dravid -23.12 -10.49 2.14 (-------*-------)Sachin -5.39 6.61 18.61 (-------*-------)
--------+---------+---------+---------+- -15 0 15 30
Player = Dravid subtracted from:
Player Lower Center Upper --------+---------+---------+---------+-Sachin 7.31 17.10 26.90 (-----*------)
--------+---------+---------+---------+- -15 0 15 30
Dhoni performs as well as Sachin in Indian victories !!!
Conclusions
There is statistically significant data to establish• India wins when Sachin performs better than
his average• Sachin scores a larger % of India’s runs when
India wins• India’s Margin of defeat/victory depends on
Sachin’s score• Dhoni performs as well as Sachin in Indian
victories