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This lecture was presented at a Joint Workshop of The Science, Technology, and Society (STS) Research Clusters of the Asia Research Institute (ARI) and Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences (FASS) of the National University of Singapore (NUS) And The Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society (RISTEX), Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) At Tembusu College, University Town, National University of Singapore on Climate Change, Disaster Management, and Urban Sustainability: STS Approaches to Three Asian Challenges on Dec. 6-7, 2011 A This workshop considered three inter-linked global challenges that are of particular concern to Asia. Asian countries have been in the forefront of efforts to help identify and mitigate global climate change, yet are also counted among the major contributors to that phenomenon. Disaster management has become something of an Asian specialty, given this region’s long experience with violent nature, yet natural disasters here are far from being fully managed. Urbanization in Asia has been burgeoning, for good and ill, and sustaining a high quality of urban life is intimately linked to the health of the natural environment. All of these challenges are also taking place in a social and political space where public awareness has never been higher, yet avenues for public engagement and action are often unclear. The three phenomena of climate change, disaster management, and urban sustainability are normally considered separately, and by different groups of experts. This workshop considered the links between them, and how lessons and approaches drawn from one realm might influence the others. Public involvement in solving such problems were also discussed. The organizers belief was that the inter-disciplinary field of STS (variously constructed as ‘Science, Technology, and Society’, ‘Science and Technology Studies’, or ‘Science and Technology for Society’) is a useful methodology, platform, and discourse around which these linkages can be activated. This was the first workshop jointly organized by the principle STS institutes in Japan (RISTEX) and Singapore (the STS Clusters of ARI and FASS at the National University of Singapore), and thus also reflected joint concerns of both countries and of the regions they’re in - East and Southeast Asia. It stemed out from a 2010 meeting in Tokyo in which STS pan-regional funding was discussed. In the spirit of that initial meeting, this workshop also included representatives from STS clusters in other Asian countries, and thus represented another step in trans-regional dialogue among interested practitioners, this time around some of the regions’ most pressing issues. Details: This is a closed workshop, by invitation only, with approximately 20 delegates. However, were some elements of the workshop were open to the NUS public.
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'Glocal' Scenario Development against Mineral-Fuel based
'Global Warming Civilization'
Masayuki Horio JST-RISTEX R&D Area Director Professor, Ryukoku University
Professor, Em., Tokyo Univ. A & T
Revised
2. How “'Glocal' Scenario Development
against Mineral-Fuel based
'Global Warming Civilization‘” works for promoting
Socio-technical and Inter-sectoral Collaboration?
1. What are we developing at JST-RISTEX Environment R&D Area? : “Community Based Actions against
Global Warming and Environment Friendly Society”
Outline of Our R&D Program
Applicants are requested to 1) organize collaborations among social/humanity and natural/engineering sciences, 2) organize collaborations among academia, local government, citizens and other stakeholders 3) submit a unique proposal with sociotechnical scenario, 4) submit a quantitative estimation of GHG reduction effect of the proposal
Period: 2008-2013 Categories:
I: Fundamental R&D <<¥10M/y
II: w/ Social Experiments <¥30M/y
The program tackles the issues of:
1. Trans-sectoral cooperation-both in government and academia
2. Equal partnership among local people, government, industry and academia
3. Appropriate technical challenges harmonized with social actions
4. Practical and profitable approaches Rather than qualitative, ethical and
enlightening approaches
5. Trans-sectoral & regional target settings
Environmental and other social issues’ ‘Common Cause’: Too much
dependency on fossil & mineral fuels of the Present Modern Civilization
Background assumption
Then, Problems can be tied together by
The Global Warming Issue that has a clear metric
criterion
Possible Technical Solutions
Target GHG reduction setting
Target Social Issues
Program Design
Method to manage socio-technical projects
To avoid disastrous climate change it is said that the temperature rise must be within 2℃. To achieve it the
world GHG emission should be cut one half from the Y 1990 value by Y 2050 and reduced further afterwards.
NIER data
Why 60-80% ?
Energy Consumption CO2 Emissions
If CO2 emissions is half of
Y1990 and the standard of
consumption and emission is
based on Japanese per Capita
Equivalent for Y2000
Oil Equivalent Energy Consumption [MtOe]
Carbon Equivalent Emissions [Mt(C)]
Countries
Achievement Year
Japanese
per Capita
Equivalent
‘Oil
Equivalent
Energry
Consumption
’, Y2000
Achievement Year
Japanese
per Capita
Equivalent
‘Carbon
Equivalent
Emissions’,
Y2000
Oil Equivalent Energy
Consumption
CO2 Emissi
ons
Reduction for Y2000
1990 2000 1990 2000 [MtOe] [Mt(C)] [%]
Japan 437 524 524 290 325 325 97 60 82 USA 1928 2304 1166 1339 1577 723 215 134 92
Canada 209 251 127 117 143 79 23 15 90 UK 212 231 242 161 155 150 45 28 82
Germany 356 343 339 266 231 210 63 39 83 France 227 257 243 103 102 151 45 28 73
Italy 153 172 238 111 120 148 44 27 77 OECD Total 4517 5316 4661 3073 3463 2891 861 534 85
China 670 928 5179 666 881 3212 957 594 33 India 199 339 4448 155 268 2546 835 478 -78
Indonesia 56 102 951 41 73 544 179 102 -40 Brazil 145 216 778 59 92 445 146 84 10
Russia & NISs 1537 1028 1278 1024 632 732 240 137 78 Kenya 3 4 135 2 2 77 25 15 -522
Africa total 239 303 3544 194 238 2028 665 381 -60 World Total 7797 9042 24896 5707 6407 15441 4601 2853 55
To Make the World GHG Emission 50% from 1990 value w/ equal rights and w/ high technical standard
Developed Countries ought to reduce by ~80%
【Transportation】
Changing All to EV
【Electricity】 Introducing
Renewables
(preferentially
replacing coal
first)
【Livelihood】 Promoting
Energy saving
well insulated
woody building 10
Possible technical solutions for GHG Minus 80%
Japan’s case
Designing Target social issues: Causes of Slow Changes
Demonstrations depending on Government Funds tend to become
uneconomical and not attractive
Environment-Ethics Approaches’ Effectiveness limited.
Too small Focus on Social Aspects; too much focus on technology
Insufficient Support for Local Initiative
Designing social Issues
Changing Local Government: Green Reconstruction of the Local Techno-social system with Pride
Changing Project Planners: Design Thinking needed to Integrate Issues for Comprehensive Solution
Changing Distributors & Consumer Activists: Design Thinking needed to Make Supply Chain Green
Changing Engineers’ & Scientists’ Attitude: Institutional Systems Design for Technical Innovation
Changing Academia, Consultants, Local Government & NPO: From Analytical & Enlightenment Approach to Collaborative Design Approach
Question ‘For whom?’ ‘For what?’ To accelerate real changes
Local people/municipality/industry empowerment
for renewable energy and energy saving lifestyle with more consciousness on local resources and
ecological lifestyle
Raise real actors!
Mineral Fuel Systems: Energy is Distributed from Concentrated Stations
Renewable Energies: Sources are distributed and in-situ Consumption
effective; Local best Mix exists
Massive Energy Saving: Local Ingenuity and Cost Consciousness needed
Local Potential Build-up Necessary for Essential Changes
Method to manage socio-technical projects
In the proposal and yearly plan submission of ‘quantification’ table
has been requested.
Mass-Energy Scenario
for GHG reduction ○○t/unit
Social Scenario □units/yr
Reform plan, human resource raising, rate acceleration
×
＝ Real reduction potential △△ t/yr
Quantification of Social Issues relevant to GHG Reduction Scenario
Social and temporal scenario
•System inspection •Policy development •Consensus development •Human resource and governance development
Technical scenario development not
accommodating the present social system
Program Structure to avoid ‘moody’ environment projects
Conducting Social Experiments -- A New Approach --
Social Experiment of the 1st Kind: Social Experiments conducted by a Definite Steering and Observing Group to Examine
Collective Effect of Introducing New Technical Parts or Institutional Rules
Social Experiment of the 2nd Kind: Social Experiments conducted by Community based Steering and Observing Group for Their
own Empowerment; Conductor=Object=Observer
New approach taken by MIC for Biomass Program Evaluation 2011
Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) just recently
published a Report with Admonition to Biomass Projects over the last 8 yrs.
For 112 Projects having some quantitative data;
GHGs balance: 440kt/y increase! (reduction 260, emission 700kt/y)
20
＝From 2008 ＝From 2009
Projects ongoing nationwide
＝From 2010
１
17
16
14
15
12
Sustainable Intermediate/Mountainous
Region Development via Eco-Mobility
Greening Model
Development for Existing
Urban Area
Local full participation System
Development for Promoting I/U-Turn
Settlements and Local Business Creation B Stule: Local Resource based
Sustainable Settlement Development
Education and Utilization of Local Public Human
Resources for Local Renewable Energy System
Development
De-’global warming’ through inducing
voluntary actions in Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo
＝Coworkers
location
To establish Regional Community System
that Exits from Inducing Global Warming
through Introducing Micro Hydro power
Development of Techniques and Theories
for the Integrated Restoration and
Revitalization of Local Commons
“Sato-model” in Mountainous Region
to tackle with Global Warming
Construction of the Town of Kiryu for
the Future with Anti-Global-Warming
through the Regional Power
Feasibility Study of the Eco-service
Business Model using Eco-point system
Creating a Low-Carbon Production, Retail
& Shopping System for Nagoya
Development of the Method of Evidence-
based Analysis for Regional Sustain-
ability in Economy and Environment
8
４
5
3
Proposing a Scenario and Road Map
to realize a Nature Friendly Society
Model for the Sustainable Shiga
13
6
2
7
Forest and City Lincage for Sustainable
utilization of Wood and Biomass
Unified Commercialization Policy for Utilizing
Local Renewables and Local Finances through
Inter-Regional Cooperation
10
11
Some examples
New role of Engineering Faculty of Gunma Univ. in Local City, Kiryu
Eco Life Design Assoc.
School of Social Informatics
Graduate School of Engineering
City of Kiryu
Gunma Pref. Forest Res.
School of Engineering Gunma Univ.
Ｃｉｔｙ Ｇｏｖｅｒｎｍｅｎｔ
Sanyo Electric Co. Fuji Heavy Ind. Taiyo Yuden Co Kiryu City Gas Mitsuba Co. Ogura Clutch Co. Yamada Seisakusho Co.
Framework Agreement
JR East Japan Tobu Railway Jomo Dentetsu Watarase Creek Railway
Public Transportation Companies
Assoc for Preserving Kiryu’s Clean Rivers and Forests Kiryu Netwrk for Citizens Activity Group for Designing the Public Transportation of y2015 Watarase Creek RailRd Citizens’ Comission Fasion Town Kiryu Promotion Tam Eco Kiryu Rennovation Green & Clean Kiryu Kiryu Assoc of 1-2 Honmachi
NPOs
Kiryu Coucil of Commerce Merchants Assoc. COOP Kiryu Youth Council Gardeners’ Assoc.
Commerce & Ind. Assoc.
Next Gen. Eco-Energy Soc.
Eng. Sci. Club
JSTproject Cooperative Association of In-Town University & Town w/ University
Northern Kanto Industry-
Academia cooperation Soc
Local Elementary and Jr High Schools
(160000 Pupils)
News Paper, FM Stn.
Next Gen. EV Research Soc.
Education Borad
Local Media
Private Companies
Cultural Biomass Utilization
City Exploration by Citizens & Students
Their Original EV Development is now leading JST’s Low Speed EV
Community Bus Development
Their original in-wheel motors have
been be used for the new 8 wheel community bus
Photo1(Mouse concept)
Photo2 （μ-TT2）
Photo3(Inwheel Motor） 4(8wheeeled community bus)
Engineers retired from Subaru Motor
Co. and related parts manufacturers
collaborated under the guide of Gunma
Univ.
Exchangeable Lithium-ion battery
Eight wheeled! 2011.9.17
8 wheel, battery exchanging EV-community bus
Solar panel
JST-Environment R&D Area’s
EV development Strategy
●Strategy-1 Protecting local life (Fuel cost saving and providing low cost public transportation service)
●Strategy-2 Developing lively Glocal town
●Strategy-3 Promoting new local industrial actors (Reviving local industry for post ‘mineral fuel era’)
●Point１ Convenient for both children and elderly) (Revitalization of shopping streets and tourist towns)
●Point３ Realization of national innovation issue of EV community transportation
●Point ２ Smart energy utilization by battery storage
Shopping Revolution Project
Forest-to-Town Project
Supply Chain Issue
◆Low CO2 Emission Chain
◆High CO2 Emission Chain
Supply Chain Issue
C B HighCO2
factory A D HighCO2
Transport
High CO2
Sales
C B LowCO2
Industry A D LowCO2
Transport
LowCO2
sales
Consumer
契約
actors actors
contract
actors
Capital capital
契約
消費者
契約
関係者 house
hold capital
関係者
契約
関係者
capital capital
契約
Platform
Innovation
Scenario
house
hold capital
Platform Platform
contract contract
contract contract contract
Consumer actors actors actors
・Topos for Mutual Learning ・Emerging Management ・Communication Connecting Manufacturer & Consumer
・New Relationship for Consumers and Distributors ・New Commodity Development
30
Consumer Manufacturer
Distributor
・changing Lyfestyle ・Changing Purchasing Behavior
Making Supply Chain Green by Drawing Consumers’ Active Role
31
New Life Recipe Development to Evolve into Consumers having New Value System
Low Carbon Commodity Development through Consumer-Distributor-Manufacturer Mutual
Learning
New Floor Management for Super Markets developing with Customers
Social Experiments
＜eco!on商品の紹介＞ ＜エコ野菜の紹介＞
Shopping Revolution! Back yard tour for Researchers’ Club
＜eco!on商品の紹介＞
＜ワークショップ風景＞ ＜発表風景＞
Shopping Revolution! Workshop in Nagoya
Academic
proof!
Academic
proof!
34
Logs at lumbermill
Forest Lumber waiting for drying
Law temperature dryer（45℃）
Carrying-in to
building sites
Young/skilled
worker
Builder Woody “Eco”-houses
Training
Lu
mb
eri
ng
Forest management
Pa
inti
ng
Pre
cu
ttin
g
& p
an
el
pro
du
cti
on
Wo
od
en
fitt
ing
s,
Fu
rnit
ure
,
etc
.
Academic
proof!
Scientific proof and certification system design for financial and institutional supports
‘Round Table’ Direct-linkage actor raising for direct cash flow back to
mountainside
Forest-to-Town Project
Inter-sectoral and Urban-Countryside
Collaboration projects
Welcome to the Country Project Yasaka Village in Hamada-city, 1600 to 5000 Project
Green Electricity Purchase Project
fore
ign
pa
ym
en
t Urban-Countryside Collaboration
Regional Cooperation
for Renewables
Countryside City
Demand Demand Supply Supply
Own
Resource
PV
Solar Heat
Wood waste
Waste Oil
Green Electricity
Rich in Renewables Giga-demand
Money
PV
μ-H
yd
ro Wind
Pre-
sent
Forest bio.
再エネ
Pop
red
ucti
on
and
bac
k
Ho
me
Future 2050
Ren
Energy
Saving
Saving
Back Home
2050
Renewables
Back to
the
Country
Present foreign payment
Welcome to the Country Project Yasaka Village in Hamada-city, 1600 to 5000 Project
Promotion of Independent Thinking
Invigoration of Community
Activity
Cooperative Study on the Community & Resources
Organization of Community Business
Community Charter Formulation
Settlement Promotion, Passing on Traditions and Reconciliation
Organizing Support from Local Authorities
Development of Community
Delights
Real reduction
t-CO2/yr
Effect of population transfer
＋
Urban-countryside population exchange should also be formulated
in terms of its GHG reduction effect
CO2 adsorption activity
including forest
management and
nature restoration
Countryside
population
increase
Urban-
countryside
difference in per
capita GHG
emission
On site reduction effort ＋
＝ ×
39
How effective is the ‘Back to the Country’ in Japan?
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
1940
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
u
%
Primary Industry Secondary Tertiary
Primary Sectors
i.e. Countryside
Tertiary Sectors
(Service Industry)
Secondary Sectors
(Manufacturing Industry)
Depopulation serious in Countryside
Japan 1940-90
%
41
Much Improvements in Transportation & Communication Systems
Cities and Villages are rather close
Departure from previous policies: 1. defensive counteraction against de-population
2. ‘New Industrial City’ program, a simple industrialization model
‘Back to the Country’ Background in Japan
Japan’s high micro-hydro potential comes from its high precipitation and steep and short rivers.
Well developed Farm Irrigation & the steep Mountain-to-Coast Water Flow
Sado・Iwakubi district 2010
sea horizon
44 堀尾正靱
Simple Evaluation: ‘Back to the Country’
by Horio & Hidaka (2011)
Renewable Energy Recharge Storage Evaluation
Per Capita Energy Demand after Greening
Population Holding
Capacity of Countryside
2050
=
Effect of Urban Population Red-
uction: Reduction of fossil fuel fired
power generation (0.083kg-CO2/MJ)
GHG Reduction
Potential of ‘Back to the
Country’
=
Full Renewables’ Utilization at Countryside
(also by newcomers)
45 堀尾正靱
Population and Renewable’s Potential by Horio & Hidaka (2011)
Households Households
number population
Urban region 80.5％ 39,495,337 100,603,432
Flat Farming region 8.6％ 4,219,378 10,747,696
Intermediate Farming region 7.9％ 3,875,940 9,872,883
Mountainous farming region 3.0％ 1,471,876 3,749,196
Total 100.0％ 49,062,530 124,973,207
Households and population in different regions (2005)
Recharge Storage of Renewables
Undeveloped Renewables
Heat Electricity
（ＧＪ/yr） （kWh/yr） （ＧＪ/yr）
Wood biomass 121,317,806 6,037,715,712 21,735,777
Hydro － 44,779,636,000 161,206,690
Geotherm － 19,030,000,000 68,508,000
Wind (on shore) － 12,264,000,000 44,150,400
Total（t-CO2/yr）
Present GHG emission
239,661,815 Urban Region Flat Farming Region Intermediate &
Mountainous Farming Region (‘Country’)
192,927,760 20,610,916 26,123,139
CO2 Emission Reduction by Countryside Greening and Back to the 'Country' Action
101,403,139 Present ‘Country’ Greening
Urban CO2 Reduction by back to the ‘Country’
26,123,139 75,280,000
％ CO2 Emission Reduction 42（％）
GHG Reduction Potential by Horio & Hidaka (2011)
47 堀尾正靱
Busy Countryside Contributes GHG Reduction by Horio & Hidaka (2011)
Case
Population [Million]
Intermediate & Mountainous Farming
Region (Country)
Urban ＆ Flat Farming Regions
Present 12 108
BAU 2050 9 81
Case Back to the `Country’2050
24 66
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