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In the event of a wildfire, accurate evacuation planning information can have a huge impact on life safety. Traditional fire behavior prediction tools require information (such as an origin or an up-to-the-minute location of the flaming front) to run simulations. Often, this information is not readily available in the chaotic environment surrounding the initial response to a wildfire. Planning for a wildfire event is only effective if it is flexible, taking into account a variety of contingencies (fire location, weather conditions, etc.) from the start. This type of flexibility is not common in standard pre-planning practices. Time Until Fire Arrival (TUFA) is a new GIS tool, designed as an ArcMap ModelBuilder product, to map the shortest potential time it would take a fire to reach a pre-determined value-at-risk or area of concern, regardless of where it ignites on the landscape. TUFA takes the form of a map with isochrones (lines of equal time) depicting the time until a fire will arrive. This tool can be used in multiple ways including determining trigger points for evacuation or production stoppage (for the oil/gas or mining industry). The presentation will address the background, technical challenges, potential uses and future directions for TUFA.
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Time Until Fire Arrival (TUFA) modeling
Mark McLean, Ph.D. October 9, 2013
Anchor Point Company Profile
• Wildfire hazard and risk mitigation – solutions from pre-planning through mitigation management
• Company formed by firefighters • Clients both private and government
– Other consulting firms – Home owner associations – Fire departments – Local, State and Federal Government
• Hazard and risk assessments • Community Wildfire Protection Plans (CWPPs) • Fuel treatment project management • National Hazard and Risk Model (No-HARM)
Background
• Important for many reasons to know when a potential fire will arrive – Suppression trigger points – Evacuation concerns – Production shutdown (oil and gas)
• Excellent fire behavior modeling tools available (FlamMap, FARSITE, BehavePlus) but none appropriate for this particular task
• Fire rate of spread is available – why not turn this into time?
http://www.isciencetimes.com/articles/5392/20130612/colorado-fires-force-2-000-homes-4.htm
http://news.yahoo.com/thousands-flee-colo-wildfire-92-homes-destroyed-084723709.html
TUFA – What is it?
• Modeling technique that makes lines of equal time (isochrones) for a fire to arrive at a given location
• Works for fires located anywhere on the map
• Worst case scenario – Wind blowing toward focus
area – 97th percentile weather
scenario (adjustable) – Shortest time until fire
arrives
Methodology Overview
• Prepare input data – Fuel (LANDFIRE) – Weather – Topography
• Run FlamMap • Export Rate of Spread • Convert to time • Adjust for vectoring • Run cost distance • Visualize outputs
Fire Behavior Modeling
Fuel Weather Topography
Flame Length Rate of Spread Crown Fire
Model Builder
• Great for non-programmers!
• Visual nature makes it easy to follow
• Readily available in basic ArcMap
• Once built, the model can be run quickly
• NOT magic (see next slide)
Challenges
• Vectoring – Reconciling wind
and slope direction – Cyclic nature of
directional data
• Input data – Projection is crucial – Input data are
sometimes cranky (focus as point vs. polygon)
Limitations
• Only takes flaming front into account (not spotting/embering)
• Worst case scenario might be too extreme
• Difficult to relate model conditions to those experienced on the particular day of a fire
jalcornphoto.photoshelter.com
Case Study 1 – Future Housing Development
• Access route as focus
• Mostly one way in and out
• Negotiations with county for mitigation requirements – Second access
road? – Landscape fuel
treatment? – Treat fuel along
road?
Case Study 2
• Theme park with a large number of visitors
• Aerial tram as main access
• Shelter-in-place vs. full scale evacuation (depends on time)
Future Directions/Applications
• Other disasters? • Better handling of
slope • Address multiple
source problem • Refine fire behavior
modeling
http://www.listal.com/list/pets-steal-show
Questions or Comments?
? http://www.jimmyfungus.com/2012/11/epic-facepalm-compilation-most-epic.html
