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Presentation made in CIP (Lima) on a vision for climate smart crops in 2030, focussing on potato. Presented in the Global Crop Diversity Trust and CIP organised meeting on "Expert consultation workshop on the use of crop wild relatives for pre-breeding in potato".
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Developing Climate Smart Crops for a 2030 world
Climate smart crops for 2030
2 • 3/21/11
The Challenge
3 • 3/21/11
The concentration of GHGs is rising
Long-term implications
for the climate and for crop suitability
4 • 3/21/11
Historical impacts on food security
% Yield impact for wheat
Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008.
Lobell et al (2011)
5 • 3/21/11
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
Crop suitability is changing
6 • 3/21/11
In order to meet global
demands, we will need
60-70% more food
by 2050.
Food security is at risk
7 • 3/21/11
Message 1:In the coming decades, climate
change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security,
and rural livelihoods.
8 • 3/21/11
Average price in voluntary carbon markets ($/tCO2e)
Left: Example of a silvo-pastoral system
2006 2007 2008
Ecosystem valuation
Spot the livestock!
9 • 3/21/11
CO2 Fertilisation
• Enhanced CO2 fertilisation, with great potential for some crops
10 • 3/21/11
Message 2:With new challenges also come
new opportunities.
11 • 3/21/11
Program Design
12 • 3/21/11
CCAFS: the partnership
13 • 3/21/11
1. Identify and develop pro-poor
adaptation and mitigation
practices, technologies and
policies for agriculture and
food systems.
2.Support the inclusion of
agricultural issues in climate
change policies, and of
climate issues in agricultural
policies, at all levels.
CCAFS objectives
14 • 3/21/11
The CCAFS FrameworkAdapting Agriculture to
Climate Variability and Change
Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for:
1.Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change2.Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk3.Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation
Improved Environmental
HealthImproved
Rural Livelihoods
Improved Food
Security
Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural
resource management, and food systems
Trade-offs and Synergies
4. Integration for Decision Making
•Linking Knowledge with Action•Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning•Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis
15 • 3/21/11
Progressive Adaptation
THE VISION
To adapt farming systems, we need to:
• Close the production gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies
• Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase food production potential
• Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level
16 • 3/21/11
Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies
Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climatesObjective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
17 • 3/21/11
Why do we need breeding?• For starters, we have novel
climates
18 • 3/21/11
Milestone 1.2.1.1 Research and policy organizations actively engaged in research design; one regional breeding strategy workshop involving regional decision-making and priority setting bodies delivered in each of 3 initial target regions (2011)
Milestone 1.2.1.2 Crop breeding institutions coordinated in development of climate-proofed crops for a 2030-2050 world; Document written jointly by CCAFS and crop breeding institutions outlining coordinated plans for breeding. (2012)
Milestone 1.2.1.3 Range of crop modeling approaches developed and evaluated for biotic and abiotic constraints for the period 2020 to 2050; findings presented in summary report and at key stakeholders meetings ; including modelling approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate change and the effects of adaptation technologies such as supplemental irrigation and water harvesting on water availability for crops and their productivity under decadal futures from 2020 to 2050 (2013).
Milestone 1.2.1.4 Detailed crop-by-crop strategies and plans of action for crop improvement developed, incorporating portfolio of national, regional and global priorities; findings presented in summary report (2015)
Milestone 1.2.1.5 Set of “virtual crops” designed and assessed for their efficacy in addressing the likely future conditions in terms of the economic, social and cultural benefits expected; findings presented in summary report and journal article. Engagement of ARI modeling groups (e.g. Leeds University), NARES scientists (2014)
Milestone 1.2.1.6 Set of breeding strategies identified and socialized with funding bodies, national and international organizations, universities and other actors; findings presented in summary report and policy briefs (including percentage of total food crop production (in recent history) accounted for by set of breeding strategies) (2015)
Development of strategies
19 • 3/21/11
Milestone 1.2.2.1 High-level meetings held with key stakeholders resulting in mainstreaming of new breeding strategies in workplans and existing breeding programs. (2015)
Milestone 1.2.2.2 Global, regional and national policy briefs produced for investments in climate-proofed crop breeding initiatives (2015)
Milestone 1.2.2.3 (2015) One policy briefing meeting per region based on the briefs in 1.2.2.2.
Milestone 1.2.3.1 Policy recommendations provided to national agencies, policy makers and key actors in the agricultural sector on how to target strategies to enable equitable access by different social groups (e.g. pastoralists, fishers, urban farmers) and by women and men. (2015)
Dissemination of strategies
20 • 3/21/11
21 • 3/21/11
Initial Analysis of Vulnerability
Andy Jarvis
“Developing Climate-Smart Crops for a 2030 World” Workshop
ILRI, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
6-8 December 2011
22 • 3/21/11
Climate change is not new…but is accelerating
23 • 3/21/11
Global Climate Models (GCMs)
• 21 global climate models in the world, based on atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biology, and a touch of astrology
• Run from the past to present to calibrate, then into the future
• Run using different emissions scenarios
24 • 3/21/11
25 • 3/21/11
26 • 3/21/11
Changes in Average and Variability around the mean
+
Clim
ate
Timescale
Short (change in baseline and variability) Long
Baseline
_
27 • 3/21/11
Temperatures rise….
28 • 3/21/11
Changes in rainfall…
29 • 3/21/11
Areas where maximum temperature during the primary growing season is currently < 30°C but will flip to > 30°C by 2050
Areas where rainfall per day decreases by 10 % or more between 2000 and 2050.
30 • 3/21/11
Projected Climate: Andes
31 • 3/21/11 DIRECT EFFECTS:elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on potato
crops
Leaf Processes Increased CO2
Photosynthetic rate •When exposed for a short period -substantial increment•Down regulation when grown continuously in elevated CO2
Stomatal conductance •Decreases at elevated CO2
•Expected to increase WUE
Leaf Protein, Chlorophyll content
•Contradictory responses, probably associated to cultivar differences
Starch / CHO content •Increases with long-term exposure to elevated CO2
32 • 3/21/11
Effect of elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on potato crops
Process Increased CO2
Changes in plant growth and development
•Stimulates both above- and below-ground biomass (early growing season)•Period of active plant growth ends prematurely•Senescence begins earlier•Limited growth rates towards the end of growing season
Effects on crop yield •Tuber yield stimulated and magnitude varies with cultivar and growing conditions•Increase number of tubers
Effects on tuber quality •Increased tuber DM & starch content•Reduced tuber N and glycoalkaloid content
33 • 3/21/11
Effect of elevated Temperature on potato crops
•Elevated temperatures seems to reduce tuber initiation
•Temperature above the desired ones reduce the photosynthetic efficiency, thus reducing potato growth
•High temperature may also reduce the ability of the plant to translocate photosynthates to the tuber
•Elevated temperature increases DM partitioning to stems but reduces root, stolon, tuber and total DM and total tuber number
•Offset the CO2 fertilization effect
34 • 3/21/11
Baseline w/o crop protection 75 % of potato production today would be lost to pests
Major factors likely to influence plant disease severity and spread
•increased CO2, •heavy and unseasonal rains, •increased humidity, droughts and hurricanes, •warmer winter temperatures
INDIRECT EFFECT: potato pests and diseases
35 • 3/21/11Changes in the climate are expected to produce
•alterations in the geographical distribution of species,
•increase overwintering,
•changes in population growth rates,
•increase the number of generations per season,
•extension of the development season,
•changes in crop-pest synchrony,
•increase risk of invasion by migration pests,
•may cause the appearance of new thermophilic species,
•changes in the physiology of pathogens/insects and host plants,
•changes in host plants resistance to infection/infestation,
•critical temperature/infection threshold,
•modification of pathogen aggressiveness and/or host susceptibility
36 • 3/21/11
Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
37 • 3/21/11 Potato Current Suitability
Kiling temperature (°C) -0.80
Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 3.75
Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 12.40
Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 17.80
Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 24.00
Growing season (days) 120
Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 150.00
Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 251.25
Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 326.50
Maximum absolute rainfall (mm) 785.50
38 • 3/21/11 Potato Current Suitability and Presence
39 • 3/21/11
Potato Current Climatic Constraints
40 • 3/21/11 Potato Future Suitability and Change
2030s SRES-A1B
2030s SRES-A1B
41 • 3/21/11
Rop-Cumulative Top-Cumulative
Potato Breeding Priorities
42 • 3/21/11
Potato Impacts by Countries
Change in Suitable Area Overall Suitability Change PIA/NIA ratio
AND Andean Region EAS East Asia NEU North Europe WAF West AfricaBRA Brazil EAF East Africa SAF South Africa WEU West EuropeCAC Cen. America and Caribean EEU East Europe SAH Sahel OCE OceaniaCAF Central Africa WAS West Asia SAS South Asia SAM South Latin AmericaCAS Central Asia NAF North Africa SEA Southeast AsiaCEU Central Europe NAM North America SEU South Europe
43 • 3/21/11
Late Blight (LB)
Warmer temperatures with some humidity in higher grounds will increase the presence of potato late blight.
High incidence of LB in the future (2050) above 3000 masl (highlighted in the map) where it is virtually absent today
44 • 3/21/11Potato tuber moth (PTM)
PTM is actually present in interandean valleys and the coastal areas of the Andes
PTM is expected to climb as well due to climate change
45 • 3/21/11The critical role of crop wild relatives in ensuring long-term food security and
their need for conservation
© Neil Palmer (CIAT)
46 • 3/21/11Why conserve CWR diversity?
•Use: 39% pest resistance; 17% abiotic stress; 13% yield increase
•Citations: 2% <1970; 13% 1970s; 15% 1980s; 32% 1990s; 38% >1999
Use!!
234 papers cited
Maxted and Kell, 2009
47 • 3/21/11
Threats
48 • 3/21/11
Impact of climate change on CWR
• Assessment of shifts in distribution range under climate change
• Wild potatoes• Wild African Vigna• Wild peanuts
49 • 3/21/11
50 • 3/21/11
Summary Impacts• 16-22% (depending on migration
scenario) of these species predicted to go extinct
• Most species losing over 50% of their range size
• Wild peanuts were the most affected group, with 24 to 31 of 51 species projected to go extinct
• For wild potato, 7 to 13 of 108 species were predicted to go extinct
• Vigna was the least affected of the three groups, losing 0 to 2 of the 48 species in the genus
51 • 3/21/11
Florunner, with no root-knot nematode resistance
COAN, with population density of root-knot nematodes >90% less than in Florunner
Wild relative species
A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions
A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions
A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions
52 • 3/21/11
SpeciesChange in area
of distribution (%)Predicted state
in 2055
batizocoi -100 Extinctcardenasii -100 Extinctcorrentina -100 Extinctdecora -100 Extinctdiogoi -100 Extinctduranensis -91 Threatenedglandulifera -17 Stablehelodes -100 Extincthoehnii -100 Extinctkempff-mercadoi -69 Near-Threatenedkuhlmannii -100 Extinctmagna -100 Extinctmicrosperma -100 Extinctpalustris -100 Extinctpraecox -100 Extinctstenosperma -86 Threatenedvillosa -51 Near-Threatened
Impact of Climate Change – Wild Peanuts
53 • 3/21/11
CWR supporting adaptation but also threatened by climate change
54 • 3/21/11
Adapting Agriculture to Climate ChangeCollecting, Protecting and Preparing Crop Wild Relatives
project
55 • 3/21/11
How well conserved are crop wild relatives?
Gap Analysis
© Neil Palmer (CIAT)
56 • 3/21/11
Why Gap Analysis?
• Tool to assess crop and crop wild relative genetic and geographical diversity
• Allows detecting incomplete species collections as well as defining which species should be collected and where these collections should be focused
• Assesses the current extent at which the ex situ conservation system is correctly holding the genetic diversity of a particular genepool
57 • 3/21/11
An example in Phaseolus
58 • 3/21/11
Herbarium versus germplasm: Geographic
59 • 3/21/11
Herbarium versus germplasm: Taxon
60 • 3/21/11
Conserved ex situ richness versus potential
61 • 3/21/11
Priorities: Geographic and taxonomic
62 • 3/21/11
“Validation”: The man versus the machine
63 • 3/21/11
Model priorities versus expert priorities
64 • 3/21/11
Taxon-level and genepool level priorities
65 • 3/21/11Wild Vigna collecting priorities
• Spatial analysis on current conserved materials
• *Gaps* in current collections
• Definition and prioritisation of collecting areas
• 8 100x100km cells to complete collections of 23 wild Vigna priority species
66 • 3/21/11
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67 • 3/21/11
68 • 3/21/11 Sweetpotato Current Suitability
Kiling temperature (°C) -0.4
Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 2.4
Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 10.2
Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 23.8
Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 30.0
Growing season (days) 120
Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 100
Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 300
Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 1500
Maximum absoluterainfall (mm) 2760
69 • 3/21/11 Sweetpotato Current Suitability and Presence
70 • 3/21/11
Sweetpotato Current Climatic Constraints
71 • 3/21/11 Sweetpotato Future Suitability and Change
2030s SRES-A1B
2030s SRES-A1B
72 • 3/21/11
Rop-Cumulative Top-Cumulative
Sweetpotato Breeding Priorities
73 • 3/21/11
Sweetpotato Impacts by Countries
AND Andean Region EAS East Asia NEU North Europe WAF West AfricaBRA Brazil EAF East Africa SAF South Africa WEU West Europe
CAC Cen. America and Caribean EEU East Europe SAH Sahel OCE OceaniaCAF Central Africa WAS West Asia SAS South Asia SAM South Latin AmericaCAS Central Asia NAF North Africa SEA Southeast AsiaCEU Central Europe NAM North America SEU South Europe