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Advanced Powertrain Technologies Expected to Steam Up the North American Locomotive Market
Surendar Chandrasekaran, Research AnalystSurendar Chandrasekaran, Research Analyst
Automotive & Transportation
26th May 2010
Today’s Presenter: Surendar Chandrasekaran
Functional Expertise
• Three years of experience in research and analytics, which include market analysis across industries with particular focus on the automotive and transportation domain. Particular expertise in:
- Market mapping, sizing and forecasts
- Market entry strategy
- Technology analysis
Industry Expertise
� Experience base covering a broad range of sectors in the automotive & transportation domain:
- European & American rail OEMs
- Rail infrastructure providers (track, electrification, signaling)
- Seating and interior solutions
What I Bring to the Team
Place photo here
Shadow Background for
effect
2
What I Bring to the Team
� Strong understanding of the diversified business segments within the rail industry
� Creative representation of complex information methodologies
� Long-standing working relationships with leading industry participants’ Senior Executives
Career Highlights
� Extensive expertise in European urban and high-speed passenger rail sectors
� Worked with several leading firms and associations including:
- Euro Copper Institute
- Lockheed Martin
- Bombardier
Education
• Executive Diploma in Financial Management, Madras University, Chennai
• Masters of International Business, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
• Bachelors in Engineering (Computer Science), Bharatiyar University, Coimbatore, India
Surendar ChandrasekaranSenior Research Analyst
Frost & SullivanSouth AsiaChennai, India
Focus Points
Global Trends and The Rail Advantage
Introduction to the North American Locomotive Market
A Goal Post Analysis on the Locomotive Powertrain Market
EPA Emissions and Challenges
In-Powertrain Technologies for Emission Reduction
Penetration Analysis of Powertrain Technologies
Analysis on Effectiveness of Powertrain Technologies in NOX Reduction
3
Analysis on Effectiveness of Powertrain Technologies in NOX Reduction
Idle Reduction Technologies
Hybrid Locomotive Concepts and Penetration Analysis
Locomotive Powertrain Technology Roadmap
Key Findings
Next Steps
For Additional Information
Mega Corridors in 2050: Global Snapshot of Future Mega Corridors Connecting Two Or More
Large Cities or Mega Regions and Characterised by High Levels of Industrialisation/Urbanisation
– A Major Potential for Rail Freight and Passenger Services
Evolution of Megacities: Mega Corridors (Global), 2050Evolution of Megacities: Mega Corridors (Global), 2050
Northern and Northern and
Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou
Corridor: Home to 120 Million People
Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou
Corridor: Home to 120 Million People
Tokyo- Osaka Corridor: Home to 90
Million People
Tokyo- Osaka Corridor: Home to 90
Million People
Trans European Transport Network (TEN-T) serving entire
Europe
Trans European Transport Network (TEN-T) serving entire
Europe
CascadiaCascadia
Front Range Corridor
Front Range Corridor
Great Lakes Corridor
Great Lakes Corridor
North East Corridor
(BOSWASH)
North East Corridor
(BOSWASH)
Abu Dhabi -Abu Dhabi -g/pkm
4
Northern and Southern California Corridor
Northern and Southern California Corridor
120 Million People120 Million People
São Paulo to Rio de Janeiro Corridor:
Home to 50+ Million People
São Paulo to Rio de Janeiro Corridor:
Home to 50+ Million People
Mumbai – Pune, Chennai –Bangalore, Delhi –
Chandigarh and many others
Mumbai – Pune, Chennai –Bangalore, Delhi –
Chandigarh and many others
Ibadan-Lagos-Accra Urban Corridor: 600
Kilometers
Ibadan-Lagos-Accra Urban Corridor: 600
Kilometers
Arizona Sun Corridor
Arizona Sun Corridor
The Texas Triangle
The Texas Triangle
Florida CorridorFlorida
Corridor
Piedmont Atlantic
Piedmont Atlantic
Abu Dhabi -Dubai
Abu Dhabi -Dubai
g/km
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan
While rail’s green tag is driving investments and its popularity, recovering rail freight volumes are reassuring rail’s viability financially.
160
205
20
23
60
Bus
Air
Vessel
Frieght Rail
Truck
CO2 Emission Advantage Of Rails
g/tkm
g/tkm
g/pkm
g/pkm
g/tkm
Fre
igh
tP
as
sen
ge
r
NOX VS PM contributions by Mobile Source (North America), 2010
High Way
34%
Locomotiv e
19%
Marine
16%
Other Non
Road 31%
High Way
13%
Locomotiv e
32%
Marine 32%
Other Non
Road 23%
NOX Contribution PM Contribution
5
2.2
65
85.5
140
160
High Speed
Inter-City Rail
Light Rail/Metro
Car
Bus
Source: Alstom Transport, EcoTransIT, carbonneutralcalculator
g/pkm
g/pkm
g/pkm
g/pkm – grams per passenger kilometer
g/tkm- grams per ton kilometer
g/km
g/pkm
Pa
ss
en
ge
r
• Rail is the lowest contributor to Co2 emissions and hence the
huge government support.
• Though locomotives are substantially more efficient than
road vehicles in terms of per freight ton or passenger mile
moved, they still contribute to a major part of PM and NOX
emissions.
The North American Locomotive Market is Dominated by Diesel Freight Locomotives
Frieght
75%
21%
4%
Locomotive Market: Share by Segment (North America), 2010
Locomotive Market: Share by Fuel Type (North America), 2010
El ect r i c
Di esel
99.4%
0.6%
Freight is the biggest locomotive market
segment in North America and is
completely powered by diesel.
66M64A-18
SwitchersPassengerEl ect r i c
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
UP
BNS
F
CPR
CN
CSX
KCS
NS
Amtra
kFer
rom
ax
0
5
10
15
20
25
Locomotive Age
Locomotive Market: Average Fleet Age of Freight Locomotives Owned by Railroads (North America), 2010
17. 6
20. 9
10
20
30
Fr i eght Passenger
Locomotive Market: Locomotive Average Fleet Age by Passenger and Freight Segment (North America), 2010
Passenger locomotives are older as a
result of commuter railroads buying aged
fleet from freight railroads.
Ag
e
Ag
e
Largest fleet owners have relatively younger locomotive fleet.
Un
its o
wn
ed
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan
New Locomotive Powertrain Requirement: About 5,600 New Powertrains is Expected to go into 4,513 New Locomotives
Locomotive Market: Total Locomotive Requirement (North America), 2010 and 2017
277
USA Canada Mexico
Total New Locomotive Powertrain Requirement by Country between 2010 and 2017
Line Haul Line Haul
Switcher 20.66%
0.63% Electric Passenger
3.67% Diesel passenger
31,987
Switcher 19.58%
Diesel passenger
4.86%
Electric Passenger 1.37%
36,500
Lo
co
mo
tiv
es P
ark
ed
Lo
co
mo
tiv
es P
ark
ed
7
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan
230
1169
2472
47267
333
88157
131
44
2010 2017(1,000<hp<2,500) Switcher/Regional
Freight Application
(3,500<hp<4,500) Passenger
Diesel Application
(7,000<hp<8,000)Passenger
Electric Application
(3,500<hp<4,500)Line Haul Freight
Application
Line Haul Freight 75.03%
Line Haul Freight 74.20%
• Increased share of passenger locomotive fleet is a result of efforts to revive passenger rail transportation.
• The requirement of 536 new switcher locomotives is expected to create an opportunity for about 1,458
medium horsepower powertrains; this presents a good opportunity for non-road engine manufacturers.
CanadaMexico
Canada
Lo
co
mo
tiv
es P
ark
ed
Lo
co
mo
tiv
es P
ark
ed
Comparison of PM and NOX Reduction Analysis for Locomotives of Different Tiers
Locomotive Market: PM Vs NOX Emission Reduction Plan (North America) 2010 - 2017
0.3
0.4
Tier 2 - Line haul Tier 3 – Line haul by fine tuning in powertrain technology
Tier 4 - Line haul & Switcher by using exhaust after-treatment
PM
(g
/hp
-hr)
0.5 Tier 2 (VS) Tier 3 –
Reductions (%)
Tier 4 –
Reductions (%)
Line Haul 50% PM
0% NOX
85% PM
76% NOX
Switcher 23% PM
38% NOX
77% PM
84% NOX
Tier 3 (VS) Tier 4 – Reductions (%)
Line Haul & Passenger Locomotive Emission
Non Road Engine Emissions
8M64A-18
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0.1
0.2
8
Tier 2 - Switcher
Tier 3 – Switcher (non road powertrains)
9 10
NOX (g/hp-hr)
PM
(g
/hp
• Switcher locomotives have more stringent stage-by-stage emission cuts than line haul. There is 10 percent lower NOX
levels in tier 3 compared to line haul locomotives.
• Over 75 to 85 percent reduction in PM and NOX are required in the Tier 4 implementation period.Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan
600<hp<=750 90% PM, 90% NOX
hp>750 85% PM, 90% NOX
2015 norms require NOX and PM emissions to reduce by 85 percent from present levels. Hence tier-2 compliant technologies, which are by itself advanced, need further improvisation in a span of 5 years.
Key Industry Challenges for Locomotive Systems
Market Challenges Only 2 Players catering to
Creation of Infrastructure for alternative fuels
The cost of creating an infrastructure for alternative fuels such as LNG, ethanol, or hydrogen has to be borne by the respective railroads. This substantially increases the overall cost of switching to alternative fuel locomotives.
Locomotive Market: Key Market Challenges (North America), 2010
Meeting EPA tier 4 emission norms
9
Market Challenges Only 2 Players catering to the largest segment for
locomotives in NA
Less R&D expenditure in Locomotive technology
• The rail industry in the United States can source locomotives only from OEMs and suppliers that have 80% localization. This restricts competition and increases the time to market new efficient locomotive technologies from other parts of the world.
A locomotive emission can be controlled by a variety of additional technologies during operation.
However, EPA considers only direct exhaust emissions from powertrains and not auxiliary technologies such as start stop, brake energy recovery, and so on that helps in emission reduction.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
EPA norms only account for powertrain
exhaust emissions
A Snapshot Diesel Powertrain Technologies in use and consideration for Emission Reduction and Energy Consumption
Loco Management
Systems
Advanced Ignition Systems
DPF + SCR
Efficient Power
PM + NOX reduction
techniques for 2015
EPA Tier IV standards
Clean engines using
Common rail injection +
turbo charging
technique - enables
engine downsizing
Reduce idling –
control emissions
Microprocessor enables
software technologies for
performance and fuel
efficiency improvement – LFO,
LEADER, GE’s trip Optimizer)After Cooler
Systems
Advanced systems to manage
engine output and lubrication
consumption
Locomotive Market: Diesel Powertrain Technologies in Use and Consideration for Emission Reduction (North America), 2010
10M64A-18
DDHS/ HEP
Exhaust Gas Recirculation
AESS
Use of highly efficient smaller engines to charge
battery banks that power the locomotives
Energy On Demand &
Auxiliary power
Brake Energy Recovery
Less Polluting Fuels such as LNG
Separate efficient gensets
to power the railcars and
the cabin
Efficient Power
Boost Technique
Battery Banks
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Alternative Fuels
Freight Locomotive Powertrain Technology Trends
Locomotive Market: Freight Locomotive Technology Trends (North America), 2010-2017
Technology AC traction motors
Engine downsizing and
turbo-charging; use of
genset engines
High-pressure common rail injection
system to become standard
1111M64A-18
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Technology
TrendsAC traction motors
preferred
Battery powered hybrid
options are on testing
grounds
Exhaust after-treatment to
be fitted in all modern
locomotives
Electric and Dual Mode
locomotives shall gain
popularity
758
1087
800
1000
1200
80%
100%
120%
Commonrail, VGT to become a standard feature in locomotives by 2015.
572
758
1087
800
1000
1200
80%
100%
120%
Locomotive Market: Penetration Forecast Of Powertrain Technologies (North America), 2010-2017
Nu
mb
er
of
Lo
co
mo
tiv
e U
nit
s%
Pen
etra
tion
•Common rail injection systems shall have the quickest and highest penetration in powertrain
technologies of future locomotives.
•SCR usage will be kept as a last option but shall be adopted by 99% of high hp line haul
(3,500<hp<4,500) and by about 30% of medium hp locomotive powertrains (1,000<hp<2,500)
Key Observations
% P
en
etra
tion
Nu
mb
er
of
Lo
co
mo
tiv
e U
nit
s
12M64A-18
377430
474443 452
572
0
200
400
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0%
20%
40%
60%
Diesel Locomotives EGR DPF with DOC SCR
377430
474443 452
572
0
200
400
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0%
20%
40%
60%
Diesel Locomotives Common Rail
Miller Valve Timing VGT
FGT Advanced Air Cooling
Nu
mb
er
of
Lo
co
mo
tiv
e U
nit
s%
Pen
etra
tion
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan
% P
en
etra
tion
Nu
mb
er
of
Lo
co
mo
tiv
e U
nit
s
Analysis: Powertrain Technologies and Their Implication on Emission Reduction – A Tier Based Model Forecast on NOX Reduction
7.4
5.5
5
6
7
8
2005
g/b
hp
.hr
Pre 2005 2012: Tier 3 for locomotive emissions to become effective
Tier 3 does not require change in NOX levels. However, use of common-rail injection by 2012 is expected to lower NOX levels to 3.3 g/bhp.hr.
• Common-rail injection, EGR and SCR are the primary technologies expected to be used by locomotive manufacturers to control NOX emissions from current tier 2 (5.5 g/bhp.hr) to tier 4 ( 1.3 g/bhp.hr) levels.
2015: Tier 4 for locomotive emissions to become effective.
• Tier 4 NOX level of 1.3 g/bhp.hr is required.• EGR helps bring NOX down from 3.3 g/bhp.hr to
Locomotive Market: NOX Reduction by Technology Use for Powertrain Class 3,500<hp<4,500 Locomotives (North America), 2010-2015
13M64A-18
3.3 3.3
2.1
0.6
0
1
2
3
4
Electronic Pump
Injection
Turbo-charging &
Advanced Air
Cooler
Common Rail
Injection
DPF w ith DOC EGR SCR
2012 2015
2015
2015
g/b
hp
.hr • EGR helps bring NOX down from 3.3 g/bhp.hr to
2.1g/bhp.hr.• Further reduction to meet compliance is to be
done using SCR – takes NOX to 0.6 g/bhp.hr
Note: All figures are rounded; the
base year is 2010. Source: Frost &
Sullivan
Performance Benchmarking of Idle Reduction Technologies
Fuel Saving & Emission
Reduction PotentialSegment compatibility Functional Limitation
DDHS/HEP Low High
1 52 3 4
LowHigh
1 52 3 4
Low High 14.5
AESS Low High
1 52 3 4
LowHigh
1 52 3 4
Low High 12.5
Electrical Shore Power Low High
1 52 3 4
LowHigh
1 52 3 4
Low High 6
Total 15 Points
Locomotive Market: Idle Reduction Technology Effectiveness – An Analysis (North America), 2010
1 52 3 4
1 52 3 4
1 52 3 4
14M64A-18
Full hybrid (battery powered)
Low High
1 52 3 4LowHigh
1 52 3 4
Low High12.0
1 52 3 4
Segment compatibility
Functional Limitation
• The possibility to use the technology is all locomotive segments
– line haul, switcher and passenger
• Higher the compatibility, higher the score
• The Potential of the technology to function in required services
in all environmental conditions such as extremely cold/hot
weather and when needed.
• Higher the limitation, lower the score and vice versa.
Low HighKey :
Measurement criteria & Definitions • DDHS/HEP score more than AESS as
an effective idle reduction technology.
• However, taking cost and most
prevalent weather conditions into
consideration, EPA has only mandated
AESS for locomotives from 2011.
• HEP is mandatory in passenger
locomotives
• About 70 percent adoption of DDHS
in freight locomotives.
Key ObservationsSource: Frost & Sullivan
Source: Frost & Sullivan
1400
Hybrid Powertrain – Brake Energy Recovery and Battery Powered Locomotives
Hybrid locomotives have an alternative power source working in conjunction with or independent of a conventional diesel
engine to power the locomotive’s traction motor. The alternative power source is typically a series of batteries that is charged
either by braking or a small diesel engine.
Types of Hybrids Micro Hybrid Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid
Only Regenerative braking
for auxiliary power support
Regenerative braking + battery
power for acceleration support +
downsized diesel engine
Batteries as Prime Mover
Locomotive Market: Locomotive Powertrain Sales Forecast by Hybrid Technology Penetration (North America), 2010-2017
15M64A-18
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Line Haul Freight Switcher/RegionalMicro Hybrid Swithcer/Regional Locomotives Diesel Passenger
Micro Hybrid Diesel Passenger Micro Hybrid Electric PassengerMild Hybrid Freight
Nu
mb
er
of
Lo
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s
• Micro Hybrids to make maximum penetration in the passenger segment.
• All electric passenger locomotives shall feature micro-hybrid regenerative braking technology.
• Diesel passenger segment is expected to witness 40%-60% penetration of micro hybrid technology
between 2010 and 2017.
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Technology Roadmap: Locomotive Engines will see Rapid Modernisation and Implementation of Technologies that Increase Efficiency and Reduce Emissions
Technology
Regenerative Braking
Dynamic Braking
Idle Reduction
Energy recoveryL
oc
om
oti
ve
S
ys
tem
sL
oc
om
oti
ve
En
gin
es
Automatic Start Stop Systems
Auxiliary Power Systems
Exhaust Gas Utilization Intercoolers and Turbochargers
Exhaust After Treatment Diesel Oxidation Catalyst and Diesel Particulate Filters
Selective Catalytic Reduction
Advanced Air to Air Coolers + Cooled EGR with Variable Geometry Turbine
Electric Shore Power
Locomotive Market: Technology Roadmap (North America), 2010
16
Source: Frost & Sullivan
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Lo
co
mo
tive
En
gin
es
Alt
ern
ate
Fu
els
Utilization
Fuel Injection and
Advanced Combustion
Common Rail Injection and Miller Valve Timing
Electronic Fuel Injection
HCCI Powertrains
Geometry Turbine
Sodium Halide Mild Hybrid (Battery + Diesel Engine)Lead Acid Batteries
Li-ion Battery Based Hybrid and Hydrogen Fuel Cell LocomotivesBattery
Hybrid
Alternative Fuel
Fuel Modifications
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Locomotives
Ethanol Fuel Locomotives
Normal Diesel Fuel Clan Diesel Fuel With Sulphur < 15ppm
Diesel + a maximum of 20% BioDiesel Fuel
Key Conclusions
Emission regulators
such as EPA are the
primary driving force for
change in locomotive
powertrain technology.
Conclusions
Emission challenges
have fueled competition
from non-road engine
Locomotive OEMs must inculcate continuous innovation as way forward to sustainability and market leadership.
Non-road powertrain suppliers must intensify competition by developing
higher horsepower engines to cater to
Locomotive Market: Key Conclusions (North America), 2010
1717M64A-18
Fuel cell, ethanol or electric locomotives to have little impact unless robust supply chain infrastructure is built with
federal support.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Emissions apply only to
diesel fuel locomotives
and powertrains > 1,020
hp.
from non-road engine
suppliers in the diesel
freight locomotive
segment.
higher horsepower engines to cater to line haul freight.
Line haul locomotive OEMs can consider partnering with leading non-road engine suppliers to strengthen
powertrain technology offerings.
OEMs must take advantage by developing and quickly
commercialising battery-powered hybrids and ethanol fuel locomotives.
Strong industry lobbying by railroads and OEMs could make governments consider the ecological benefits of
providing new infrastructure.
Growth Opportunities in Smart Mobility Business Models, Infrastructure and eService Platforms
15 June 2011 - Lords Terrace, House of Lords, Westminster, London, 16 June 2011 - Institute of Directors, 116 Pall Mall, Westminster, London
Frost & Sullivan’s upcoming workshop will debate, discuss and provide recommendations to the industry on new Urban Mobility models and how this trend can provide opportunities for government, public sector and corporations to align their future mobility vision, products and services toward customers’ unmet needs.
Highlights of the event include:• Panel debate at the House of Lords followed by a motion on whether the mega-cities of the future and personal transport solutions will be as sustainable as public transport. This panel
Speakers include:- Jan Cupal, Senior Technology Manager, Verbund- Dr. Bernhard Blättel, Director Project Mobility Services, BMW AG
- Robert Henrich, CEO, car2go GmbH- Andrew Everett, Head of Transport, Technology Strategy Board
- Michael Hurwitz, Director, Office for Low Emission Vehicles- Kulveer Ranger, Mayor of London's Environment Adviser, Greater London Authority
- Alexander Sixt, Head of Corporate Development, SIXT AG
18
will include a unique mix of parliamentarians, industry and academic experts.
• Unique thought leadership platform featuring senior Mobility heads discussing their vision and strategy to enable next generation of Mobility Services. These include: New Mobility Concepts, Mega City Vehicles, Role of IT in providing Smart Mobility, Electric Mobility Market Status, Infrastructure and New Mobility Business Models.
• Unique cross industry insights from a selective group of key individuals provide the ideal networking environment.
- Alexander Sixt, Head of Corporate Development, SIXT AG- Phil Dingle, Power Utilities and Networks Segment Manager, Eaton’s Electrical Business (EMEA)
- Klaus Dehnert, Director Sales & Marketing Vehicle Group,Europe, Middle East and Africa, Vehicle Group, Eaton Corporation
- John Rushton, Global Business Development Leader, Intelligent Transport Systems, IBM
- Alexander Sixt, Head of Corporate Development, SIXT AG- Ian Allen, Manager Environmental Strategy & Ampera, General Motors
For more information about Urban Mobility 3.0, or for a full agenda, visit: http://www.gil-global.com/urbanmobility. Alternatively, contact Cyril Cromier on
[email protected] or dial: +33 1 42 81 22 44
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