Alternative Energy: The time is Nigh

Arvind Tiwary

Co-chair, Clean Tech SIG, TiE Bangalore

SangEnnovate

Background

This presentation is intended for

Sep 21 2013 event for Apartments in Bangalore

under Tie & IIHS, Sustainable City

Numbers quoted are illustrative and taken from end 2013 and early 2013

Credits to TiE members

Uday / Trueskill

Manasij / EnerPlus

Ramesh / Buildmet

Gautam, Pamli , Ashok ..

Note: Volatility in Exchange rates will alter the numbers a bit !!

Grid Power: A implosion waiting to happen

India has a net deficit of Electric power Demand exceeds Supply esp in South by 16-22%.

(Source Central Electricity Authority)

Distribution companies are loosing Money Grid power charged at Rs5-10/Unit

Accounting for T&D losses etc DISCOM

will need 10-12 /Unit to break even

Future is Not BRIGHT Losses mean less “investment” in Operational maintenance

Losses dis–incentive to more generation capacity

Grid Blackout, Increasing brownout likely

MNRE Natn Renewable Energy 12%

30% Subsidy

SCI Solar Corporation of India

Economics of Electricity

Item Current Situation

Grid

• Domestic 5.6 Rs /unit • Commercial 7-12 Rs /unit • Inflation 6-8% Rs 8 ++ by 2017

Diesel ~3-6 KwH /L Rs 13-22 /Unit (OPEX also Efficiency varies by Load% )

Solar PV Merchant or Utility Level ( MW Scale)

• Gujarat 2010-2012 Tenders Rs 12.54/unit LCOE ( leveled cost over 20 -25 years CAPEX planned 16.5 Crore /MW)

• now seeking tariff for purchase by State Electricity Board around Rs 9/Unit (Actual CAPEX 11.2 Crore /MW)

• Residential Roof Top Solar in Bangalore expected at LCOE around Rs 6-7/Unit ( Grid Connected No Batteries)

Wind

Rs 3.5-5.5 /Unit @ MW Scale . Avg 20% utilization

BioGas Rs 2.5 – 4/unit Gas Electricity Generator

Economics of Electricity

FIT

Feed in Tariffs

• Utility (BESCOM) to pay Consumers for feeding Electricity to Grid

• Allows BESCOM to delay capacity Addition, Peak power reduces Distribution loses as distributed generation and local usage

• Needs smart grid. Metering, Demand and supply forecasting and dispatching

Net Metering ( Lets Pray it is in Pipeline!!)

• Meter of power consumed from Grid

• Meter of power fed to Grid

• Net Power used is billed by BESCOM

• No payment from BESCOM if you supplied more then used

Grid Feeding

• Pilot with 440V 3 Phase balanced and conditioned ( Voltage and frequency bands )

• Later 220V single phase

Comparison • CAPEX Rs 1.5 L/KW

• LCOE 6-7/Unit

• Most suitable for urban Bangalore. Proven technology and vibrant supplier eco system. Probably low point in TCO cycle

Solar

• Rs 1.0-3 L/KW

• 4-5/Unit

• Mainstream at MW scale. Wind Farms. Urban settings need new approach. Few vendors for Sub MW scale

Wind

• Rs 0,8 – 1.5L/KW

• Rs 2.5-4 /unit

• Bio to cooking gas Robust mass adoption.

• Convert to power using gas generator

• Older designs need constant care and manual intervention.

• Continuous process Bio

Bio Gas

Gas and Power Output

1 Tonne/Day = 60

kWh/day3

1m3 Biogas = 0.4 kg of

LPG

1m3 Biogas = 1 kWh

Electricity

1 Tonne/Day = 24-28 kg

of LPG

1 Tonne Municipal Waste ~ 60-70 m

1 Tonne/Day

= 100 kg fertilizer

Feedstock Typical Gas Output (m3 per tonne)

Cattle & Animal Waste

15-25

Chicken Litter

30-100

Grass & Farm Waste

160-220

Food Waste 200-600

• % of Wet Wastes in MSW – 40-50% • Household – 40% • Hotels/ Resorts / Malls – 50% • Fruit & Vegetable Markets – 10%

400gm/Person/day

IISc Slug Flow Biogas Plant

1 tpd plant at BITS Goa Campus, 2009: Mess and kitchen wastes

Wind

Wind Large scale Wind farm deployments

Peak power varies as cube of wind speed

Intermittent 20% utilization

Wind shadows and turbulence in urban setting

Common Horizontal Axis. Large MW range Avg Annual Wind speed 15-26 MPH

30 year Life cycle Wear tear on moving parts. SW optimization for direction etc.

Leveled costs can be low

Need to extrapolate from Airport wind measurements or do annual data collection

Wind Energy Utilization

7.3% March 99 50.6 July 2006

Micro Vertical Wind Turbine : Old Wine in New Bottle for urban settings

650Wp to 5 KWp

3-7 meters height. Avoid 10 X Ht wind shadow on roof top.

Power from 10 Mph + . Optimum around 15-25 Mph

160 Kg /2KWp to 600 Kg 5KWp

Solar PV

Types of Solar PV usage Direct DC loads.

Low power. No BIG Startup surge ( AC, Pump)

Grid Connected Direct AC inverter

Needs Grid Reference Voltage, Frequency for Invertors

220V single phase or 3 phase 440V.

Special Invertors for Indian volatile grid conditions

Off Grid Battery Backup ( Special Battery !!)

Offload Diesel

Low penetration < 20%

High penetration > 70% Overload from Solar PV, Dump load

Charger Control Under , Over charge, Deep Discharge cycle

Conditioning Load, Frequency, Voltage

Recommendation

Goal for Energy Security

Reduce consumption by 5-12%

Energy Audit

Source 25-33% from alternative sources

Solar, Wind, Bio

Dedicated usage only if very clear ROI and robust

Solar Pump, STP

Hybrid or Mixed usage

Power produced is converted to AC and Voltage and Frequency stabilized to grid level

DG Set is rarely used for full backup as Solar, etc provide

Modularize DG to work efficiently at different loads

Priority to use Own Produced energy before Grid

Types of Renewable Energy Usage Hybrid ( Recommended )

Multiple Energy Sources

Grid (100%) , GenSet ( 20-

80%)

Solar PV, Optional Wind Bio (20-33%)

Battery (Small 5-10%)

Multiple Wiring

Grid / GenSet Only Load, DC

only Load

Conditioning, Trackers, Islanding

Voltage , Amperage and

frequency variance

Ability to Isolate subsystem, component

Track peak demand ( Pump, AC

startup) and generation (Very bright sunny day)

Prioritization

User defined : Solar, Grid,

GenSet

Use cases :

No Grid Genset+PV, No

GenSet Grid +PV , No Grid & No Genset only

PV,

KEY Question Willingness to pay for CAPEX to secure lower cost power then genset

Summary Consider 20KWp+ Hybrid.

Solar PV between 15-50KWp Hybrid grid .Small 2-10 KWp Wind/ Bio

Feed to grid 440V 3 phase to benefit for future net Metering

Use existing Genset backup rather then “overinvest” in Battery

Contracting Approach

Quality over cost as expensive if failures over 20-25 year cycle

Invertors and Installation (Wiring, enclosures) are hotspots.

IP6 Open Enclosures wind, water, hail, earthing, High DC Amperage flow …

Failure points and replacements costed in . Invertors etc

Need to arrange credible support for long term supply 15-20 years.

Consider some form of power purchase to keep engagement

We will buy Power at agreed rates for 10-12 years.

We will need to invest 30% of CAPEX ( 20-30L) for reasonable rates.

Alternative Energy projects are financed at 13%+ by Commercial banks

Subsidy may go away. So please start NOW….

End of Life disposal issues

Disruptive Future

Producer

Centralized, Utility Newspaper

Consumer

Distributed, Mass

ProSumer

Citizen Journalist

Differentiated Niches

Distributed Power generation and consumption

Thank You

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