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Winter School2017
Daniela Nossa Díaz
Nicolò Bonacina
Mahsa Bohlooli Zamani
Edoardo Marcandelli
Daniele Ramirez
Davide Renda
Martina Rontini
Marina Berardi (Leader)
Marco Boretto
Stefano Gabetti
Melissa Latella
THEIA
Is a merging of virtual world with real environment that provides users with completely new technological experiences
TITOLO
AUGMENTEDREALITY
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PASTTHEIA
1886Augmented Reality in literature
(i.e., Eva Futura of Villiers de l’Isle-Adam)
1968Sutherland built the first head-mounted
three dimensional display
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PRESENTTHEIA
2016The Pokemon-Go phenomenon
2009First use for advertisement (i.e.,Toyota, Lego) and development of first apps
for smartphone
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THEIA
Who are the main actors?How are they involved in the innovation process?
Basic Research
PotentialMarket
Distributeand
market
Redesignand
produce
Detailed design and test
Inventand
produce analytic design
Scientific Knowledge
UniversitiesPublic research centers
Incumbent enterprisesStart-ups
APPLIED RESEARCH PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT
Chain-link modelStephen J. Kline, 1985
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BASIC RESEARCHTHEIA
Sensorial InterfaceVirtual Object Real Environment
Both to generate virtual inputs and to process information from the environment
(e.g.: pose estimation algorithms) in real-time.
Produce accurate sensors (microphones, gyroscopes,
accelerometers, cameras) and displays
Understand how the brain works in order to provide the most immersive
experience
COMPUTER SCIENCE HW DEVELOPMENT NEUROSCIENCE
Basic Research
PotentialMarket
Distributeand
market
Redesignand
produce
Detailed design and test
Inventand
produce analytic design
Scientific Knowledge
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LEADING ACTORSTHEIA
Research field: AR systems in presence of spatial uncertainty
Research field: 3D-objects tracking, pose estimation
Research field: Medical application (AR training SW,
Augmented imaging systems)
Research field: Hybrid inertial and vision tracking for AR
Basic Research
PotentialMarket
Distributeand
market
Redesignand
produce
Detailed design and test
Inventand
produce analytic design
Scientific Knowledge
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SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGETHEIA
Private Enterprises Universities
R&D Centers
GovernmentPublic
Companies
INTELLECTUALPROPERTY
It plays a key role in connecting the main actors in the innovation process.
Basic Research
PotentialMarket
Distributeand
market
Redesignand
produce
Detailed design and test
Inventand
produce analytic design
Scientific Knowledge
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INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY PROTECTIONTHEIA
APPROACHES WHY?Industrial secrecy No dominant model yet
No main competitor yetCollaborative community “The better everyone does, the better everyone does”
Knowledge Learning Curve
Lock-in of customers High cost in shifting to AR technology during the early phase
New inventions
Distinctive identification of Software
Original creative Software
PatentsIntellectual Property Rights
Trade marks
Copyright
No dominant design yetRegistered Design Currently used
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APPLIED RESEARCHTHEIA
MIT's New Media Lab, USA Hololens in collaboration with
Microsoft
University of Canterbury, New Zealand
Holoplanets
University of Tokyo, JapanTelexistence enabling virtual human
ubiquity
UNIVERSITIES
Basic Research
PotentialMarket
Distributeand
market
Redesignand
produce
Detailed design and test
Inventand
produce analytic design
Scientific Knowledge
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APPLIED RESEARCHTHEIA
Basic Research
PotentialMarket
Distributeand
market
Redesignand
produce
Detailed design and test
Inventand
produce analytic design
Scientific Knowledge
andGoogle glasses
3D hand tracking, 6 DOF head position tracking and monitoring.
Smart glasses for industrial applications
SDKs, cloud services and coding support for AG applications.
IT software integration for companies in the AG field.
ENTERPRISES
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VOICE OF COSTUMER EXPLOITATIONAR user evaluation through user-based experiments (Gabbard and Swan)THEIA
_Virtual Environment journals and conferences i.e., IEEE conferences such as 2017 will be held in Los Angeles, California on March 18-22, 2017
_Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI, computer human interation) conference i.e., Workshop on Amplification and Augmentation of Human Perception and SIGGRAPH
_Comments made by users of specific observed AR systems i.e., World Wide Web searches for AR
_Experiences using AR systems i.e., Pokémon Go, Virtual try on, etc.
PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT
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THEIA
Educational andEntertainment
User Friendly Network information Portable/wearable Real Interaction
WearableVirtual try on Real time information
Social interaction Accessable dataSimple training
GeolocalizationGeolocalization
Reliable data
Real time informationFast flow of information
Real time informationAccessible modelling design
CUSTOMERS’ REQUIREMENTS
E-Commerce Scientific Research
ArmyApplications
Industrial Applications
Basic Research
PotentialMarket
Distributeand
market
Redesignand
produce
Detailed design and test
Inventand
produce analytic design
Scientific Knowledge
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THEIA
RESPONSES TO CUSTOMER NEEDS
EyeglassesContact lenses
Optical projection systemsTouch and speech recognition
Software development kits (SDK)AR Markup Language (ARML)
Spatial ARGPS
View of historic sites (i.e. High Street Stories App)View of not yet existing sights (i.e. large scale construction in-situ projects)
Head-mounted displays for digitalization of real movements in a virtual space (i.e. Microsoft console “kinect”)
Use of smartglasses for training doctorsCancer surgeon using a virtual reality camera (2016, Royal London Hospital)
Heads-up-on-the-move technology (mapping of soldier’s field of vision, ARC4)
Manteinance and customer service activities (i.e. Mitsubishi electric’s meView)
Virtual fitting rooms to make virtual try-on (BY TryLive brand, Acep TryLive)Phonebook catalogues for mobile strategies (IKEA’s AR app)
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THEIAAPPLICATION IN COMMERCE: IKEA’s AR AppPhonebook catalogue as mobile strategy
Value for the CUSTOMERSEnjoying the in-store shopping
Convenience of the online environment
Value for the BUSINESSStock cost savings
Employees’ time savings
Reduced risk of products being damaged
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AUGMENTED REALITY IMPACTS
References
THEIA Positive impacts Negative impacts_ Less cell phone, get our hands back
_ Improve the quality of life
_ Communication will be challenging and rewarding, more effective, productive, and enjoyable
_ Improvement and expanding the educational system_ Experience a reality that is based on personal needs and desires
_ Expand the abilities of retailers
_ Explosion of the marketing and advertising
_ Navigate without taking their eyes off the road
_ Huge impact is the medical field (Reducing the chances of medical problems arising after surgery is performed)
_ Allows to go beyond physical boundaries (more than tradi-tional social media)
_ Potential in socials skills training for people with autistic spectrum disorders
_ Find a common ground across differences in age, culture, and linguistic orientation
_ Malware attack by cyber criminals that are looking to capitalize on new technology
_ Development of scams that will victimize the innocent users
_ Psychological impact (virtual vs reality)
_ We’ll be annoyed by constant advertisement
_ Provoke laziness and decrease the interpersonal relationships which is inescapable aspect of social life in the formation and maintenance of real life (Biocca and Levy 1995)
_ Privacy easily Breached
_ Huge impact on the young minds of teenagers who are already susceptible to rapid changes in behavior and beliefs _ Effects that augmented reality can cause on the brain as well as physical effects; especially in teens and children, whose brains are still developing
_ Separates more the haves from the have-nots
_ Could lead to low self-esteem, feelings of worthlessness and in-significance, even self-destructive acts (Cartwright 1994)
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MAIN PROBLEMS TO OVERCOMETHEIA
FRAGMENTATION OF THE ECOSYSTEM:Many variation in hardware, operating system and coding
LACK OF STANDARDS:Standards in the data transmission, connection and algo-rithms and modularity in components
TECHNICAL BARRIERS:Large field of view lenses, advance 3D real time rendering, tracking and -display and user-objetcs interaction
FINANCIAL BARRIERS:Cost of device and computer hardware
CULTURAL BARRIERS:Social and privacy issues related to tracking a always-on mass device
OPERATIONAL RISKS:Challenge of introducing new hardware in a not mature market and securing data on the devices.
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IMPACTS ON EMPLOYMENTTHEIA
Creating a more linked work environment
(cooperation between workers and workers-employers)
Changes in the employer-employee relationship Changes in the need of employees
Test candidates
Faster and cheaper training
Trying new equipments without risks
Training to emergency situation protocol
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LEGAL ISSUESTHEIA
Laws are not clear about AR legal issues
Technology move faster than legislative processes
Commerce of personal dataPrivacy
i.e., placing a virtual characters in a private propriety
Private propertyDifficulty in deciding who is the owner of an idea
Intellectual property rights
Consequences of using wrong data sets
Data quality and reliability of technologies i.e., unfair competition
Improper
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AR GRANTED PATENTS in 2016THEIA
Analysis based on a field of 1229 patentsData extracted from www.patentinspiration.com
Northern America 497
Europe138
Israel4
China, Hong Kong, Taiwan353
Japan, South Korea220
Australia17
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LEADING COMPANIESTHEIA
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AR SOFTWARE PATENTS OVER TIME
Patent inspiration analisys
THEIA
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1999
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2001
Growing trend of the acquirement from 2012 until now
OVERALL
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AR SOFTWARE PATENTS OVER TIMETHEIA BY APPLICATION CATEGORIES
Two dominant patented products: Manipulating 3D models for
computer graphics and input arrangements for transferring data.
15
10
5
Performance / costs
Sales
Number of firms
Role of innovation
t
t
t
t
Abernathy-Utterback Model
High rate of innovation and large range of technical solutions i.e. Support of depth-sensing cameras
Markerless AR
Thermal touch
Sensor fusion
2017
Immature technology, high costs and prices i.e. Google Glasses - 1.800 $
SDK Basic - 3.000 $
SDK Pro - 5.500 $
Current sales releted only to innovators AR worldwide revenues in 2016: 5.200.000.000 $
AR worldwide revenue forecasts for 2020: 162.000.000.000 $(International Data Corporation)
High and keeps growing number of firms
NOT A DOMINANT
DESIGN YET!
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FLUID PHASETHEIA
Performance / costs
t
2017
In the current scenario
incumbent companies may
be overcome by incoming
ones in a few years.
Incoming companies in AR
The definition of a new
technological paradigm
disruptes traditional
technologies like computers
and mobile devices that have
reached their saturation
phase.
Incumbent companies
in mobile devices
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DAVID vs GOLIATHTHEIA
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CASE STUDY: MetaioTHEIA
2003Foundation of Metaio in Munich,
Germany, grown out of an internal project within Volkswagen
2014Thermal Touch: infrared
technology to turn any surface into an interactive experience
2005 Release of the first end-consumer AR application called KPS Click & Design
2015Acquired by Apple for 30
millions Euros
2010 to 2012Presentation of the first commercial
2-D Markerless Feature tracking application for print and television on
a consumer mobile device
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STATE OF ART: Nowadays technologyTHEIA
3D-Object Tracking algorithm
Digitally renderedobject
Metaio Suite
iOS application
Rea
l Env
ironm
ent Virtual w
orld
MotionRecognition
SDKMetaio Creator
MEMS Sensors
Cloud Storage
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FUTURE TREND: ImprovementsTHEIA
3D Object Tracking algorithm
Digital Object
MotionRecognition
Virtual Reality goggles
In-depth cameras
MEMS sensors
Virtual World
Rea
l Env
ironm
ent
Metaio suites directly mounted on portable devices
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EMERGING STANDARDSTHEIA
D'fusion Studio: Supported on Microsoft Windows, Mac OS X, Linux, Android and iOS. Markerless recognition of 2D images and tracking of 3D objects. Supported on smartphones and smart glasses.
Vuforia Augmented Reality SDK: Supported on Android and iOS. Recognition of planar images, markers or 3D objects. API in C++, Java, Objective-C and .NET languages and code can be written using XCode, Android
Studio and Unity. Supported on many VR Viewers and smart glasses.
Metaio:Originally developed for iOS and Android. Markerless tracking. Supported on smartphones.
Wikitude: Developed for iOS and Android. Markerless and location-based tracking, HTML augmentations. Plug-ins in C++, Java or Objective-C and can communicate with
JavaScript API. Supported on smartphones and smart glasses.
Performance / costs
t
20172015
Apple mobile technology
«Augmented reality is that big as the smartphone (...) the smartphone is for everyone. (...) AR is not a product per se. (...) is a key software component that would enhance hardware rather than a device or product (...)»
Tim Cook
In 2015:
iPhone users 700.000.000
iPhone market share 37%
Metaio users 150.000
Bonding the new AR technology to its
established role in the market of smart
devices, Apple is likely going to
define the future technological
paradigm.
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Based on the data from www.statista.com
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THE FUTURE OF ARTHEIA
Combining AR to IoT, Big Data and wearable technologies
establishing a trustful relationship with our devices providing only the informations we’re willing to give
it’s possible to create a new enriched experience of our reality.
«It’s not about being lost in our devices; it’s about technology receding into the background so that we can engage in human moments»
Dr. Helen Papagiannis, AR Stories
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CASE STUDY: Vuzix THEIA
The company is engaged in the design, manufacture, marketing and sale of wearable display de-vices. These devices are worn like eyeglasses, they are mainly: our wearable display products are known commercially as Smart Glasses, Video iWear (Eyewear), head mounted displays or HMDs. They are designed to work with mobile electronic devices, including cell phones, laptop computers, tablets, and portable media players and gaming systems.Vuzix’s aim is primarily the consumer markets for gaming and mobile video while many products are also sold in the consumer, industrial, commercial, academic and medical markets.
SDK and software providers Customer enterprises
STRENGHTS_49 patents and 43 additional patents pending and numerous IP licenses in the Video Eyewear field; _Competences in wireless technology innovation awards;_Collaboration with Intel Corporation to accelerate the introduc-tion of the next generation of Vuzix fashion-based wearable dis-play products for the consumer marketplace;_Key technologies including ultra-thin waveguide optics co-developed under license with Nokia, which will form the basis for many of our future products.
WEAKNESSES_Negative Net Profit (in general due to low sales and high R&D);_Difficulties in financing activities because of the negative Net Profit.
OPPORTUNITIES_Significant Market Opportunity Across Multiple Enterprise Applications (i.e., Industrial Warehousing, Utilities & Power Pharma / Life);_Chance to substitute mobile devices;_Ecosystem of companies through the world;_Growing demand;_Growing economy.
THREATS _Competitive market; _Emergent different standards; _Lack of complementary assets (computing power).
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THEIACASE STUDY: Vuzix SWOT Analysis
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THEIACASE STUDY: Vuzix conclusion (I)
Analyzing Vuzix revenues from 2011 to 2016 it is noticeable that they decrease by 56%. Moreover, the Net Profit of the company is characterized by a negative value and fluctuating trend. Indeed, the average loss is about $9 million with a peak value of $19 mi-llion in 2016. However, R&D investments register an exponential increasing trend. As a consequence, the Return On Investments is declining over the five years of the analysis. Despite these trends, Intel has been investing in Vuzix from several years considering the high intellectual value of the company due to numerous pa-tents.
Based on the data from www.vuzix.com
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THEIACASE STUDY: Vuzix conclusion (II)
In addition, Juniper Research predicts that the market for wearable computing and personal display hardware will exceed $53 billion in 3 years. Assuming that Vuzix captures just 2% of this market, it would mean more than $1 billion in sales (2% share is not much for a market leader with all the patents). Nonetheless, a standard valuation for a tech stock would be 3x sales, which implies a $3 billion valuation, a $150+ share price, and a +1875% return.
Based on the data from NASDAQ
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THEIA
BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS - Current
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BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS - FutureTHEIA
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THEIASOFTWARE HOUSE vs DEVICE PRODUCER
_Medium-low starting capital
_High availability of skilled software developers
_Growing market
_Higher flexibility thanks to sharing of the same know-how among VR and AR
_Unaffected by standard wars due to ease of adaptation of the product
Less risky in terms of investment but medium to low net returns.
_High starting capital
_Low availability of skilled workforce caused by the unexplored nature of the market
_Growing market
_Low flexibility of manufacturing and expensive tooling machinery
_Risky due to standard wars and the possibility of failure in the case of the emergence of a different prominent product (i.e. Google glasses)
More risky in terms of investment, however, higher net returns in case of success (results based on future market prediction study).
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REFERENCES
THEIADhiraj Amin, Sharvari Govilkar, “Comparative study of augmented reality SDK’s” - Department of Computer Engineering, University of Mumbai, PIIT, New Panvel, India
Ronald Azuma, et al. "Recent advances in augmented reality" Computer Graphics and Applications, IEEE 21.6 (2001): 34-47
Mark Billinghurst, Andreas Dünser, Raphaël Grasset, "A Survey of Evaluation Techniques Used in Augmented Reality Studies" - University of Canterbury, 2008
Marco Cantamessa, Francesca Montagna, “Management of innovation and product development: integrating business and technological perspective” - Springer-Verlag London LDD, 2016
Stefan Hen, Ann-Kathrin Hörster, Alexander Karollus "Augmented reality Specialised applications are the key to this fast-growing market for Germany "- Detusche Banck Research Management
Ivan E. Sutherland, “A head-mounted three dimensional display”- University of Utah
https://app.patentinspiration.comhttp://augmentedtomorrow.com/http://www.marxentlabs.com/blog/http://thearea.org/area-blog/ http://www.govtech.com/http://www.indexarsolutions.comhttp://www.ptc-italia.comhttp://www.metaio.com/