Setting the Boundaries

Stephen Boyle, Principal Consultant, Climate Change and Policy

11th March 2009

A world leadingenergy and climatechange consultancy

• Global business supporting public and private sectors

- Energy and climate change

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environmental management

About AEA

AEA has been

compiling estimates

of air emissions for

UK Government for

close to 20 years

• The UK GHG Emissions Inventory

- National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory

- Latest Figures

- Scottish Government Carbon Assessment

Project

• Boundaries

- What are they?

- Why do we need them?

- Issues?

• Final Remarks

Outline to presentation

National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory

• The National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory(NAEI), developed and managed by AEA, is the basis for reporting to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and provides the authoritative data on the UK’s direct emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHG) split into sectors and sources.

• Based on IPCC3 guidelines. Estimates include emissions caused by all domestic, commercial, industrial and agricultural fuel and electricity use, as well as emissions associated with transport and land use change. However, International shipping and aviation are excluded.

• The UK emissions inventories are widely regarded as one of the worlds leading inventories

http://www.naei.org.uk/index.php

The UK GHG Emissions Inventory

The Scottish GHG Inventory

• Since 1998, AEA has provided GHG inventories to the Devolved Administrations, including retrospective estimates back to 1990.

• DA emission estimates for the basket of 6 Kyoto Protocol GHGs

• Time series from 1990 to 2006 (latest year) and updated annually

• We adopt the basic principle that:

...for each source and each pollutant

• Incorporates benefits of the UK NAEI/GHGI No need to re-invent the wheel deriving emission factors, many activity

data, conversion factors etc. UK inventories subject to rigorous QA/QC

Sum of DA inventories = UK Inventory

Regional greenhouse gas emissions

• The 2008 study shows that the UK distribution of regional net greenhouse gas emissions in 2006, expressed in terms of global warming potentials (GWP), was:

– England 77.1%– Scotland 9.1%– Wales 7.8%– Northern Ireland 3.4%– Unallocated 2.6%

Devolved Administration’s Inventories – 2005 GHG Emissions

Emissions Summary for Scotland, 2006 (kt CO2e)

CO2 Power stations 32%

CO2 Road Transport 17%

CO2 Residential Combustion 12%

CO2 Land Converted to Cropland 11%

CO2 Other Industrial Combustion 10%

N2O Agricultural Soils 6%

CH4 Landfill 4%

CH4 Enteric fermentation - Cattle 4%

CO2 Commercial and Institutional Combustion 3%

CO2 Refineries 3%

Summary: Scottish GHG Inventory

• GHG emissions from economic activities in Scotland are available within the Scottish GHG Inventory

• These estimates are consistent with official statistics, the UK inventory, EU-ETS, and the reporting formats and quality requirements of international GHGIs (hence directly comparable with other Member State inventories)

• Historic emissions only (no account for future impacts). Scotland-specific projections are available, but typically follow UK forecast trends.

• The Scottish GHGI is production-based, not consumption-based. This is a significant issue in the power sector, where (1) Scotland has high renewable energy generation, and (2) Scotland exports electricity to England and Northern Ireland. All Scottish power station emissions are allocated to Scotland.

• Not based upon SIC code, but can be correlated to Economic sector codes.

Environmental Accounts

• GHG emissions for 93 economic sectors

• The process for compiling these environmental accounts on a UK-wide basis is becoming more well established.

• There is, however, no devolved environmental accounts for Scotland.

• Uncertainties in the Scottish inventory may be magnified when further manipulation of the data is carried out to fit Economic Activity codes.

• Sector mapping frequently requires expert judgment – which is currently based upon UK activities. Taking a Scottish specific perspective may require the underlying assumptions to be revisited.

• The Scottish Government is committed to developing and implementing a framework and set of tools to assess the carbon impact of individual Scottish Government policies, programmes and projects, and the carbon impact of total Government spend.

• The overarching aim of the project is to put carbon emissions at the heart of government decision-making to support a reduction in emissions in line with carbon budgets and the longer term aim of an 80 percent reduction in Scottish Greenhouse Gas emissions by 2050.

• Carbon Impact Assessment Guidance

Scottish Government Carbon Assessment Project

Boundaries: What are they?

• Boundaries vary greatly depending on the methodology used for the Carbon Accounting and its purpose.

• They include;- The scope of the task- The measured parameters- Emission Factors

• Different Methodologies;- Bottom-up- Life Cycle Assessment- Input-Output Analysis- Hybrids- Dynamic macro-modelling

Boundaries: Why do we need them?

• Boundaries are important for consistency, clarity, cross comparison and reporting.

• Consistency is important for clarity and greater understanding. It allows Government, policy makers and managers to develop targets, report, make cross comparisons and develop plans.

• The aim is that these methodologies provide the necessary information to allow and instigate carbon saving opportunities

Boundaries: Issues!

• Double counting can occur when several instruments target the same end user or target group, and the interactions are not adequately addressed within the policy appraisal.

• Consistency of reporting and how it effects baseline calculations, trends and policy decisions.

• Additional sources and gases

• Differing Methodologies.

• Difficult areas

Clear boundaries are important for transparency and robustness.

They promote consistency which facilitates better understanding which leads to better decision making and policies.

Which will assist in the reduction of GHG emissions.

Final Remark

Setting the Boundaries

Stephen Boyle, Principal Consultant, Climate Change and Policystephen.boyle@aeat.co.uk

11th March 2009