Building Smallholder Farmer Resilience

to Climate Change in Africa: Building

Effective Policy Environments

By

Joan C. KagwanjaAlliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA)

SIANI SEMINAR

From Source to Sink: How to make Agriculture part of the Solution to Climate Change while

contributing to Poverty Alleviation?

Cancun Caribe Park Royal Grand Hotel, Cancun, Mexico

6 December 2010

LAND RESOURCES are central to Livelihoods and

Africa’s Development

LA

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AM

INIS

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ION

GO

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Poverty Reduction

Agric. and Econ.

Development

Sustainable NRM

Peace and Security

2

Economics 101: Sustainable Production Depends on

Land, Capital, Labor, Technology

Key determinants to sustainable agricultural

intensification

Climate change is a shock to the system affects

ability to mobilize the factors effectively/sustainably

Land control and access impacts ability to access

capital, technology, and labor

A conducive policy environment is key to addressing

property rights constraints and addressing CC

mitigation and adaptation3

Consensus on Expected Long-Term Climate

Change…

Climate change is occurring and will continue even if

global carbon emissions are drastically reduced

There is variation in nature and extent of climate

change in the future, but warming will take place for

at least, the next 50–100 years

Results in an increase in the number of hot days and

nights, an increase in heavy precipitation events and

a rise in sea levels

Key question: at what rate will change occur; what

impact on smallholder farmers

Considerations for a Strategy to build

resilience… Short-term-- inter-annual variability > impact than climate

change; crop suitability will not change much

Extreme weather events will occur with possibly higher

frequency

More localized climate models needed to accurately

predict variability and impact of weather at local levels

More accurate weather data and increased weather

stations and regularly reporting data in Africa needed

Lacking adequate prediction on long-term climate change--

adapting to current variability and impact critical compared

to planning for long-term climate change scenarios

Magnitude of Predicted Climate Change Maps Depicting Predicted Climate Change

Source: “How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture?” , P.Kurukulasuriya & R. Mendelsohn

The agro-ecological landscape is forecasted to exhibit significant changes over the course of

the century; this results in shifts in the profitability per hectare of cropland

Predicted Change in Distribution of Agro-ecological Zones with (CCC Scenario), 2003 – 2100e

OBSERVED CCC 2100

Desert

High elevation dry savannah

High elevation humid forest

High elevation moist savannah

Lowland dry savannah

Lowland humid forest

Lowland moist savannah

Lowland semi-arid

Lowland sub-humid

Mid-elevation dry savannah

Mid-elevation humid forests

Mid-elevation moist savannah

Mid-elevation sub-humid

Legend

Magnitude of Predicted Climate ChangeMagnitude of Predicted Climate Change by Country

Percentage Decrease in Agricultural GDP due to Climate Impacts in 2100e

Pe

rce

nta

ge

-1.5

0.90.91.51.9

2.4

3.5

5.3

6.8

8.1

9.3

15.0

16.1

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

Keny

a

Ethiopi

a

Ghan

a

Mozambiqu

e

Zambi

a

Nigeri

a

MaliBurkina

Faso

Nige

r

Malaw

i

Ugand

a

Tanzani

a

Rwand

a

Decrease in

Billion Dollars0.66 0.66 0.50 3.64 0.15 0.21 0.49 0.31 0.26 0.04 0.15 0.09 -0.06

Note: For the climate change prediction numbers, an average of average of 14 climate change models is used

Source: "Climate Change Impacts on Africa Agriculture“, Mendelsohn et al (2000); Monitor Analysis

Whilst the majority of countries will experience a decrease in agricultural productivity,

Rwanda has an opportunity to capitalize on positive climate change effects

Assess and Address System Vulnerability (1)Vulnerability Parameters: Economy – Access to Capital

In countries where it is particularly difficult to obtain credit, farmers’ access to

interventions for adapting to climate change is impeded

Getting Credit Index, 2008

Note: The Getting Credit Index is a component of the Ease of Doing Business Indicator

Source: World Bank; Monitor Analysis

2.02.32.32.3

2.8

3.3

4.44.44.6

5.05.05.0

5.6

6.5

7.9

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

9.0

RwandaNigerMaliBurkina FasoEthiopia Mozam-

biqueUgandaGhanaKenyaTanzaniaNigeriaMalawiZambiaIndiaUK

Accessing credit is

extremely difficult in these

countries

Road Network Density, 2004

Source: “IRF World Road Statistics”, International Road Federation; Monitor Analysis

Assess and Address System Vulnerability (2)Vulnerability Parameters: Economy – Infrastructure

In countries where road infrastructure is sparse, the cost of transporting food to urban areas

is high and accessing the agro-dealer network is difficult

Rwanda’s high score is

likely to be due to its

particularly small land area.

0.010.010.030.040.060.090.110.120.160.170.200.21

0.57

1.03

1.60

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

NigerMaliEthiopiaMozam-

bique

Burkina

Faso

TanzaniaKenyaZambiaMalawiUgandaGhanaNigeriaRwandaIndiaUK

Km

of

roa

ds / k

m2

of

lan

d a

rea

Examine and Address System Vulnerability (3) Summarised Results

GDP per capitaAgricultural production

percentage of GDP

Most Vulnerable Five Countries by Indicator

Irrigated land as percentage of arable land

1. Niger

2. Malawi

3. Mozambique

4. Ethiopia

5. Rwanda

1. Zambia

2. Mozambique

3. Ethiopia

4. Mali

5. Tanzania

1. Uganda

2. Niger

3. Burkina Faso

4. Ghana

5. Rwanda

Ethiopia (8)

Mozambique (7)

Mali (7)

Niger (10)

Most vulnerable countries based on number of top five appearances on each indicator

Burkina Faso (6)

Global Hunger Index

1. Niger

2. Ethiopia

3. Zambia

4. Mali

5. Mozambique

Infant mortality

1. Niger

2. Mozambique

3. Mali

4. Zambia

5. Nigeria

The extension program is the conduit through which all other initiatives must

be funneled to effectively reach the farmer and catalyse an African Green

Revolution

Strengthening Agricultural Resilience to climate change

Soil Health Initiatives

Seed Initiatives

Market Access Initiatives

Climate Expertise

Livestock Development

Agro-Forestry

…

Extension Activities“A food secure and prosperous

Africa achieved through a

uniquely African Green

Revolution”

On-going

Focus Issues

Recommended Through Linkages

What types of interventions build resilience (1)

Technological interventions

– Seed (agro-ecologically adapted over time while

conserving biodiversity

– Soil, Land and Water Management—soil fertility,

conservation; sustainable irrigation and water

management

Institutions

– Education

– Extension

– Farmer Based Organizations-Farmer’s Associations

– Storage and Markets

– Credit, finance, insurance

What types of interventions build resilience (1

Policies

– Farm input policies (seed, soil health)

– Market policies

– Land policies and management

– Environment and climate change policies

Data, information and knowledge management

– Climate Information

Gender and climate change adaptation

– Women contribute immensely to agriculture and food security

– Adapt all interventions to the particular needs of women

Harnessing Carbon Markets for Smallholders

Land use /ecosystem mapping and identification of

ecosystem services;

Improve and refine tools to measure carbon sequestration in

agriculture

Farmer aggregation to overcome scale constraints

Pilot sequestration activities and demonstration to farmers

Knowledge generation and sharing among researchers and

practitioners in carbon market activities among African

smallholder

Financial instruments and distributive mechanisms for

benecifiaries

Confidential

Institutional Arrangements/Capacity for

Policy Development and

Implementation

Research/

Analysis of Policy

Options

Policy review

and/or

development

Policy

Implementation

Assessment/

Monitoring and

Evaluation

Identification

of Policy Issues/

Constraint/

Prioritize

Policy

communication

Dialogue/

Advocacy

I

M

P

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P

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What?: Supporting Activities Along Policy

Advocacy Pathway

•MOA

•Seeds certification

Unit

•NARS/Research

•NGOs: Agro-dealer

training

•NGOs: Extension

•Research

•Farmers

•NGOs: Agro-dealer

training

•NGOs: Extension

•Research

•Farmers

•MOA

• Fertilizer

procurement agency

•NARS/Research

•MOA

•Ministry of commerce

•Regional trade

representative

•NARS/Research

•NGOs: output market

development

•Research

•Farmers

•NGOs: land reform

•Community groups

•NGOs:

Environment/cc

•Research

•Farmers

Non-

Govern

ment

Govern

ment

•MOA

•Ministry of Lands

•Environment

protection agencies

•Research

Seeds Soil Health MarketsLand &

Environment

Private

secto

r

•Seed companies

•Seed growers

associations

•Agro-dealer

associations

•Research

•Fertilizer importers,

blenders, wholesalers

•Phosphate miners

•Research

•Grain traders

association

•Agricultural

commodity exchange

•Research

•Plantations/ estates

•Managers of carbon

sinks

•Producers of CPPs

•Research

Who? Local Institutions

How? Enhancing Institutional Arrangements/

Linkages…

Policy decision makers / implementers / funders

Policy Hub

Seeds Policy Action Node

Soil Health Policy Action

Node

Markets Policy Action

Node

Land & Environment Policy

Action NodePolicy Hub

Coordination

ParliamentsMinistriesDevelopment

Partners (funders of policy)

President/ Prime

Minister

Policy engagement,

communications, advocacy

Policy Analysis & Advocacy Pathway

Research/ Analysis

of Policy Options

Policy review and/or

developmentPolicy

Implementation

Monitoring and

Evaluation

Identification

of Policy Issue/

Constraint

Policy stakeholders

(farmers

organizations, NGOs,

business associations,

private sector

Policy Node/Hub

(including

senior/policy fellows,

policy analysts)

Policy

Implementers

(executive branch,

Minsitires/deptsta

keholders)

AGRA , Government and Development partners (Financial and

Technical Support)

P

O

L

I

C

Y

C

H

A

N

G

E

Policy Makers

(Parliament,

Stakeholders)

Policy Dialogue/

Advocacy

How? Supporting Effective Dialogue with

Policymakers and Parliamentarians

Policy

Program

AWEPA

Programs

Core Programs

AGRA

AWEPA

AWEPA

members (

MPs. Former

MPS)

Grantees and

partners

Policy Hubs

„Global‟ APSA Think Tank

• Political Economy

• Development

• Agriculture

„

National‟ APSA Think Tank

• Political Economy

• Development

• Agriculture

PARLIAMENT

Agricultural

Parliamentary

committee

Other

committees• Finance and

budget

• Land/environment,

Natural resources

Parliamentary

(technical) staff

CAADP

NPCA

APSAsecretariat

African Parliamentary

Support for Agriculture (APSA)

Confidential

GHANA Policy Action Node Activities (1)

Institutions: MOA, CA, UG, CSIR, EPA, CARE, STEPRI,

NCRC

Identified Issues of Concern:

Unsustainable farm management practices;

Loss of crop biodiversity, including drought-resistant crops;

Farmers do not benefit from global and regional initiatives,

including carbon market

Farmers’ face risk weather and climate related risks

Lack of recognition and support of women farmers in

agriculture and food security

Confidential

GHANA Policy Action Node Activities (2)

22

National Dev Plans:

Vision 2020 (1995 to 2015)

Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy (2003-2005)

Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy (2006-2009);

National Long-Term Development Plan

Agricultural StrategiesAccelerated Agricultural Growth and Development Strategy (1990-2000)

Food and Agriculture Sector Development policy

Food and Agriculture Sector Development Policy (FASDEP) & FASDEP

II

Confidential

GHANA Policy Action Node Activities (3)

Goal

Building resilience of smallholder farmers to climate change and variability; &

address adverse impacts of agriculture on biodiversity

Objectives

Revise National Climate Change Strategy to enhance smallholder farmer

adaptation capacity.

Integrate climate change adaptation and biodiversity conservation into

Medium Term Agricultural Sector Implementation Programme (METASIP)

and strategic plans of MoFA.

Examine and promote viable options for crop insurance

Promote biodiversity conservation and eco-system services in the

breadbasket area

Promote agroforestry farming systems and tree ownership among

smallholder farmers in bread basket region of Ghana.

Confidential

GHANA Policy Action Node Activities (3)

Activities: Examine recommendations and raise awareness of safety and

environmentally friendly use of seed, fertilizer, agro-chemicals, pesticides for

smallholder farmers;

Research to collate best agricultural practices that promote smallholder

farmers adaptation to climate change

Advocacy to incorporate climate change adaptation strategy into METASIP

and strategic plans of MoFA.

Capacity building of agricultural extension staff in relation to the delivery of

climate change and biodiversity interventions;

Establish viability of crop insurance working closely with farmers, insurers

and banks, government etc

Identify international best practices on Carbon markets for smallholder

farmers

Thank you!!