Cebu Presentation: Climate Change Issues and Initiatives

Forum and Workshop on Renewable EnergyResponding to the Challenges of Climate ChangeWaterfront Hotel, Lahug, Cebu CityMarch 6, 2009

Dr. Giovanni TapangPhilippine Climate Watch Alliance

WalkthroughWalkthrough● Marginal Communities and climate change Marginal Communities and climate change ● Philippine response to climate changePhilippine response to climate change● Updates on international climate initiatives Updates on international climate initiatives

Climate changeClimate change

Accelerated warming of surface due to human-related Accelerated warming of surface due to human-related releases of greenhouses gases releases of greenhouses gases

Projections of Surface Temperature ChangeProjections of Surface Temperature Change

Adverse ImpactsAdverse Impacts● AgricultureAgriculture

● Productivity in tropics/subtropics; food shortageProductivity in tropics/subtropics; food shortage

● Water ResourcesWater Resources● Water availability + quality; floods and droughts; Water availability + quality; floods and droughts;

hydropower sourceshydropower sources

● People's Health People's Health ● Vector and water borne disease, heat stress, Vector and water borne disease, heat stress,

nutrition, EWE deathsnutrition, EWE deaths

● Coastal Areas and FisheriesCoastal Areas and Fisheries● Species and Natural AreasSpecies and Natural Areas

● Biodiversity lossBiodiversity loss

● Forest cover lossForest cover loss

● Human DisplacementHuman Displacement

Source: Science Magazine, Sep 16, 2005

Hurricanes/TyphoonsHurricanes/Typhoons(Category 4/5)(Category 4/5)

Developing countries are most Developing countries are most vulnerable vulnerable Impacts are worseImpacts are worse

− Low capacity to adapt Low capacity to adapt

− Lack of financial,Lack of financial,institutional andinstitutional andtechnological capacity andtechnological capacity andaccess to knowledgeaccess to knowledge

Impact disproportionately Impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countriespersons within countries

− Exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate Exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources.food, clean water and other resources.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Pe

rce

nta

ge

aff

ec

ted

LDC

Dev'ing

CIT

Dev'ed

The poor face greatest challenges The poor face greatest challenges from climate changefrom climate change

2 billion people in 2 billion people in developing countries developing countries affected by climate affected by climate related disaster in related disaster in the 1990s.the 1990s.

The rate has The rate has doubled this decade. doubled this decade.

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Nu

mb

er

aff

ec

ted

(Mill

ion

s)

Dev'ed

CIT

Dev'ing

LDC

Asymmetric responsibility and Asymmetric responsibility and vulnerabilityvulnerability Inverse relationship between Inverse relationship between

climate change vulnerability climate change vulnerability and responsibilityand responsibility

Primary emitter countries must Primary emitter countries must change their production change their production activities and consumption of activities and consumption of energy and seek sustainable energy and seek sustainable solutions. solutions.

Basic human needs, economic Basic human needs, economic and social development need and social development need adequate energy and adequate energy and infrastructure. infrastructure.

Coastal systems and low-lying areas Coastal systems and low-lying areas ((IPCC-AR4, 2007)IPCC-AR4, 2007)

● All All coastal ecosystems are vulnerablecoastal ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change and sea level riseto climate change and sea level rise

● Increases in sea surface temperature of Increases in sea surface temperature of about 1 to 3°C - more frequent coral about 1 to 3°C - more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality bleaching events and widespread mortality

● Coastal wetlandsCoastal wetlands including salt including salt marshes and mangroves are projected marshes and mangroves are projected to be to be negatively affectednegatively affected by sea-level by sea-level rise rise

● Many millions more people are projected to Many millions more people are projected to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s in densely-populated and low-by the 2080s in densely-populated and low-lying areas, such as the mega-deltas of Asia lying areas, such as the mega-deltas of Asia and Africa and small islands.and Africa and small islands.

●Fisherfolk●Coastal communities●Small islands

Industry, Settlement and Society Industry, Settlement and Society (IPCC-AR4, 2007)(IPCC-AR4, 2007)

● The most vulnerable The most vulnerable industries, settlements industries, settlements and societiesand societies are generally are generally those in those in coastal and river coastal and river flood plainsflood plains, in areas prone , in areas prone to extreme weather events, to extreme weather events, especially where especially where rapid rapid urbanizationurbanization is occurring. is occurring. ● Poor communities can be Poor communities can be

especially vulnerable, in especially vulnerable, in particular those particular those concentrated in high-risk concentrated in high-risk areas. areas.

●Urban poor communities

People's Health People's Health (IPCC-AR4, 2007)(IPCC-AR4, 2007)

● Projected climate change-related exposures are Projected climate change-related exposures are likely to affect the health status of millions of likely to affect the health status of millions of people, particularly those with low adaptive people, particularly those with low adaptive capacity, through:capacity, through:● increases in malnutrition and consequent disorders, with increases in malnutrition and consequent disorders, with

implications for child growth and development;implications for child growth and development;

● increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts;floods, storms, fires and droughts;

● the increased burden of diarrhoeal disease; altered the increased burden of diarrhoeal disease; altered spatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors.spatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors.

● risk of dengue increases to 3.5 billion people, by 2085, risk of dengue increases to 3.5 billion people, by 2085, worldwideworldwide

Regional: Small Islands Regional: Small Islands (IPCC-AR4, 2007)(IPCC-AR4, 2007)

● Small islands are especially vulnerable to Small islands are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise the effects of climate change, sea level rise and extreme events: and extreme events: ● Deterioration in coastal conditions (erosion of Deterioration in coastal conditions (erosion of

beaches and coral bleaching), is expected to beaches and coral bleaching), is expected to affect fisheries, tourism, etc affect fisheries, tourism, etc

● Storm surge, coastal inundation, erosion, etc. Storm surge, coastal inundation, erosion, etc. to be exacerbated by sea-level rise to be exacerbated by sea-level rise

● Reduced water resources in many small Reduced water resources in many small islands, by mid-century (insufficient to meet islands, by mid-century (insufficient to meet demand during low rainfall periods) demand during low rainfall periods)

Vulnerability of the Philippines to Climate ChangeVulnerability of the Philippines to Climate Change

● Increasing trends in Increasing trends in temperature, sea level rise, temperature, sea level rise, etc, are consistent with the etc, are consistent with the global trends.global trends.

● Recent extreme events on Recent extreme events on

typhoons, floods, drought, typhoons, floods, drought, flash floods, landslides flash floods, landslides (Albay, South- ern Leyte, (Albay, South- ern Leyte, Ormoc, etc) Ormoc, etc)

Strong signals: start of climate change process already evident in the country

ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE PHILIPPINES

y = 0.0143x - 0.206

-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5

61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99YEAR

TE

MP

ER

AT

UR

E A

NO

MA

LY

Source: CAB/PAGASA

From Dr. Amadore's Slides


• Disastrous extreme Disastrous extreme weather events (strong weather events (strong typhoons, heavy typhoons, heavy precipitations, precipitations, droughts, etc) are droughts, etc) are occurring more often occurring more often

• Sea level rise will Sea level rise will adversely affect many adversely affect many coastal communitiescoastal communities

● Sectors/Systems Sectors/Systems most vulnerable to most vulnerable to climate changeclimate change

- Agriculture and food - Agriculture and food securitysecurity

- Water resources- Water resources

- Coastal and marine - Coastal and marine resourcesresources

- Health and human - Health and human settlementssettlements


• Agriculture and food Agriculture and food security are security are adversely affected by adversely affected by extreme weather extreme weather eventsevents

● Increases in water-Increases in water-borne diseases borne diseases (dengue fever, (dengue fever, malaria, cholera) - malaria, cholera) - associated with associated with extremes of rainfall extremes of rainfall (droughts and (droughts and floods) floods)


Percent of Typhoon damage to GDP & Agric.


Effect of Sea Warming on Coastal (Marine) ResourcesEffect of Sea Warming on Coastal (Marine) Resources

• The diversity of corals The diversity of corals could be affectedcould be affected with the with the branching corals (e.g., staghorn coral) branching corals (e.g., staghorn coral) decreasing or becoming locally extinct decreasing or becoming locally extinct and the massive corals (e.g., brain and the massive corals (e.g., brain corals) increasing corals) increasing (WGII TAR, 2001) (WGII TAR, 2001)

• Massive coral bleaching Massive coral bleaching in various reefs through- in various reefs through- out the Philippines out the Philippines during the severe 1997-during the severe 1997-98 ENSO episode 98 ENSO episode (Arceo, H.O. (Arceo, H.O. et al., 2001) et al., 2001)

• Fish kills and high Fish kills and high mortality of cultured mortality of cultured giant clams, severe red giant clams, severe red tide outbreaks after tide outbreaks after strong El Niño periods.strong El Niño periods. The worst incidence of red tide in Manila The worst incidence of red tide in Manila Bay occurred in 1992, another El Niño Bay occurred in 1992, another El Niño period. period.


Philippines’ Response to Address Climate Philippines’ Response to Address Climate ChangeChange

Created the Created the Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change (IACCC)(IACCC) in May 1991 in May 1991

Signed the UNFCCC on June 1992 and ratified it on Signed the UNFCCC on June 1992 and ratified it on August 2, 1994August 2, 1994

Signed the Kyoto Protocol on April 15, 1998 and ratified it on Signed the Kyoto Protocol on April 15, 1998 and ratified it on November 20, 2003November 20, 2003

Designated the DENR as the National Authority for CDM on Designated the DENR as the National Authority for CDM on June 25, 2004 by virtue of Executive Order No. 320June 25, 2004 by virtue of Executive Order No. 320

Issued DENR Adm. Order 2005-17 last August 2005 on the Issued DENR Adm. Order 2005-17 last August 2005 on the Implementing Rules and Regulations Governing E.O. 320Implementing Rules and Regulations Governing E.O. 320

Presidential Administrative Order No. 171 Signed by 20 Presidential Administrative Order No. 171 Signed by 20 February 2007, February 2007, Presidential Task Force on Climate ChangePresidential Task Force on Climate Change

In the Senate, proposals for a In the Senate, proposals for a Climate Change CommissionClimate Change Commission(by the ad-hoc Committee on Climate Change)(by the ad-hoc Committee on Climate Change)

The Inter-Agency Committee on Climate ChangeThe Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change(IACCC)(IACCC)

Created by virtue of Presidential A.O. 220 on May 8, 1991Created by virtue of Presidential A.O. 220 on May 8, 1991Composed of government agencies and NGO representativesComposed of government agencies and NGO representativesChaired by the Secretary of the DENR, and co-chaired by the Secretary Chaired by the Secretary of the DENR, and co-chaired by the Secretary

of the DOSTof the DOSTEMB – acts as IACCC SecretariatEMB – acts as IACCC Secretariat

Functions of the IACCCFunctions of the IACCC Coordinate, develop, and monitor implementation of various climate Coordinate, develop, and monitor implementation of various climate

change related activities.change related activities.Coordinate representation(s) and formulated the Philippine position(s) Coordinate representation(s) and formulated the Philippine position(s)

to international negotiations, conferences, and meetings on climate to international negotiations, conferences, and meetings on climate changechange

Formulate and recommend climate change related policies and actionsFormulate and recommend climate change related policies and actionsServe as technical committee for the review and evaluation of project Serve as technical committee for the review and evaluation of project

proposals for GEF funding.proposals for GEF funding.

Registered Projects by Host Party

1. 360: India2. 289: China3. 146: Brazil4. 107: Mexico5. 33: Malaysia6. 26: Chile7. 20: RP 1.67% of

TOTAL: 1,197

Multiple and fragmented responseMultiple and fragmented response● Multiple and fragmented responseMultiple and fragmented response

● IACCCIACCC● PTFCCPTFCC● CCCCCC

● Implementing CDM projectsImplementing CDM projects● Adaptation measuresAdaptation measures● Mitigation measuresMitigation measures

● Renewables (RE Bill)Renewables (RE Bill)● ConservationConservation

● Conflicting policiesConflicting policies

Grand mega-sale of energy resourcesGrand mega-sale of energy resources● Expected foreign investments energyExpected foreign investments energy

● P295 billion in investmentsP295 billion in investments

● P177 billion potential investment in the P177 billion potential investment in the renewable energy sector for 2004-2013 renewable energy sector for 2004-2013

● EPIRAEPIRA● IPPsIPPs

● SPUGSPUG

● SPEX in Malampaya SPEX in Malampaya ● 45 % Shell, 45 % ChevronTexaco45 % Shell, 45 % ChevronTexaco

● 10% to be sold10% to be sold

● Tanon straitTanon strait

● BNPP Revival?BNPP Revival?

Copenhagen 2009 and beyond

UNFCCC @ PoznanUNFCCC @ Poznan

● These events drew over 9250 participants, These events drew over 9250 participants, including almost 4000 government officials, including almost 4000 government officials, 4500 representatives of UN bodies and 4500 representatives of UN bodies and agencies, intergovernmental organizations agencies, intergovernmental organizations and nongovernmental organizations, and and nongovernmental organizations, and more than 800 accredited members of the more than 800 accredited members of the media. These included around 1,500 media. These included around 1,500 industry or corporate lobbyistsindustry or corporate lobbyists

Key Issues in COP 15 (Copenhagen)Key Issues in COP 15 (Copenhagen)Key Issue People’s Agenda Northern Elite Agenda

Mitigation Drastic reductions in GHG emissions, particularly from advanced industrialized countries

Not without binding commitments on the part of “large developing countries”

Adaptation/ Financing

Rich countries must pay their ecological debt to the poor majority of the world, esp. most vulnerable communities accdg. to principle of PPP, restorative justice

Voluntary contributions according to aid framework (donor-recipient relationship); greater reliance on private investments (carbon markets)

Technology Shift to low-carbon economies with unhampered technology transfer to developing countries

Encourage private sector investment in “clean technologies” (with IPR protection) + trade & investment liberalization in EGS (c/o WTO)

Deforestation People’s sovereignty & stewardship over natural resources

Industrial tree plantations as carbon offsets for carbon trading; biofuels

Towards CopenhagenTowards Copenhagen● National Grassroots ConferenceNational Grassroots Conference

● ManilaManila● April 2009April 2009● Organized by PCWAOrganized by PCWA

● Other activities (class suit?)Other activities (class suit?)

● Asian Grassroots ConferenceAsian Grassroots Conference● BangkokBangkok● September 2009September 2009

● COP+15COP+15● CopenhagenCopenhagen● Replacement to Kyoto?Replacement to Kyoto?● December 2009December 2009