Climate change impact on se aagric-070511 [compatibility mode]-3

The Impacts of climate The Impacts of climate change on agriculture: Vulnerability, change on agriculture: Vulnerability,

impacts and adaptation with reference to impacts and adaptation with reference to Southeast Asian countriesSoutheast Asian countries

ChamhuriChamhuri SiwarSiwar

• Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM)

ChamhuriChamhuri [email protected]@ukm.my

Institute for Environment & Development (LESTARI)Institute for Environment & Development (LESTARI)UniversitiUniversiti KebangsaanKebangsaan MalaysiaMalaysia(National University of Malaysia)(National University of Malaysia)

Presented Presented at at UniversitasUniversitas SyiahSyiah Kuala, Kuala, AchehAcheh, Indonesia, IndonesiaIkatetaIkateta UnsyiahUnsyiah, 07 , 07 May 2011May 2011

Presentation Outline

• Concepts of climate change• Global trends of climate change • Climate change impacts• Impacts on vulnerable and poverty

groups• Adaptation and mitigation• Conclusion

Concept of climate changeConcept of climate change

Concepts

• What is climate change?

– The variation in the Earth's global climate or in regional climates over time, such as

* variations in sunlight intensity * greenhouse gas emission* higher sunlight intensity, temperature rise* extreme temperature* extreme temperature* unexpected rainfall, losses of ecosystem and so on…

– Caused by processes of internal and external forces to the Earth

– More recently, human activities have contributed to climate change

– there is 90-95% likelihood that changes in modern climate have been in part caused by human actions.

Global trends of climate change Global trends of climate change

Carbon dioxide emissions

-2

Global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) increased markedly as a result of human activities,

10000 5000 0Time (before 2005)

result of human activities, with an increase of 70% in 1970-2004

Sources of CO2 emissions and other Sources of CO2 emissions and other anthropogenic GHGsanthropogenic GHGs

Energy SectorEnergy SectorEnergy SectorEnergy SectorEnergy SectorEnergy SectorEnergy SectorEnergy Sector• Energy Industry• Manufacturing Industries• Transport• Residential Sector• Commercial• Agriculture

Agriculture SectorAgriculture SectorAgriculture SectorAgriculture SectorAgriculture SectorAgriculture SectorAgriculture SectorAgriculture Sector• Crop Agriculture• Livestock and Manure Management

Landuse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and Forestry• Conversion of Land• Consumption of Timber and Deforestation

Changes in global average surface temperature

Eleven of the last twelve years rank among the twel ve warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature

50 years 0.128 oC

100 years 0.074 oCPeriod Rate / decade

Ranges for predicted surface warming

Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21st century (best estimates: 1.8ºC - 4ºC)

year

Climate Change effects

Temperature projections from 1970 to 2010

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

Source: Petit et al. (1999)

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

2005

2040

(375 ppm)

(440 ppm)

Average arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the

global average rate in the past 100 years

- Annual average arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7% per extent has shrunk by 2.7% per

decade

The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas

- Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million people lost million people lost their homes

The proportion of tropical cyclones reaching higher intensity have increased over the past 3 decades

- Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008: 100 000 estimated deaths

Intense tropical cyclone activity has increased in the North Atlantic since about 1970- Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost estimate

Heat waves have become more frequent over most land areas

- Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths

Mountain glaciers and snow cover on average have declined in both hemispheres.- The 18,000 year old Chacaltaya glacier, 5,300m (17,400 ft) up in the Andes, used to be the world's highest ski run, now reduced to a few small pieces of ice

Summary of projection climate change trends

� Temperature to increase 3oC by 2050 and 5oC by 2070 over land areas

� Lower increases in temperature in maritime environments

� Precipitation increases in high latitudes (temperate) but a drying in mid- latitudes (sub-tropics) over Asia

� Equatorial tropical zone – uncertain but little mean change � Equatorial tropical zone – uncertain but little mean change expected

� No increase in cyclone frequency but intensity could increase by 10-20%

� Accelerated melting of glaciers – 65% of China’s glaciers will not exist by 2050 with current and projected warming trends

� Sea level rise modest in IPCC projections (c. 50cm) but estimates don’t include significant ice melt

Source: CSIRO, Climate Adaptation Flagship, Australia

Climate change impactsClimate change impacts

Economic impact of climate change

– Decline in agricultural productivity – Infrastructure destruction– Decline in GDP growth– Decline in availability and quality of water

resources– Loss of welfare– Poverty increase

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”

- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Climate Change effects...

Climate change is occurring and is due to human act ivities ** From: IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marqu is, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and Ne w York, NY, USA.

Future Changes in climateFuture Changes in climateFuture Changes in climateFuture Changes in climate

Rainfall� Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes

� Decreased water availability and drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes

Temperature� Global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4°C from 1990 � Global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4°C from 1990

to 2100 (best estimates 1.8 to 5.4)

Sea level rise� Sea levels are likely to rise in the range of 22-34 cm between 1990

and the 2080s

Extreme events� Likely that future tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes will

become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation

Temperature • Agriculture• Water• Energy• Transportation

Potential ImpactsImpacted SectorsPotential sectoral impacts of change

Rainfall

Sea level rise

• Transportation• Health• Infrastructure• Economy• Disaster

management

Source: WDR 2010

Source: WDR 2010

Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase

� Higher maximum temperatures; more hot days and heatwaves over nearly all land areas (very likely)

� Higher minimum temperatures; fewer cold days frost days and cold spells over nearly all land areas (very likely)

- Increased mortality in old people in urban areas

- Damage to crops

- Heat stress on livestock

Projected changes during the 21st century

Examples of impacts

� more intense precipitation events over many areas (very likely)

� increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associated risk of drought (likely)

� increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensity, mean and peak precipitation intensities (likely)

- Extended range of pests and diseases

- Loss of some crop/fruit

- Land slides, mudslides, damage to property and increased insurance costs

- Reduced rangeland productivity, increased wildfires, decreased hydropower

- Damage to various ecological and socioeconomic systems

More adverse than beneficial impacts on biological and socioeconomic systems are projected

2020s

Initially increased agricultural productivity in so me mid-latitude regions & reduction in the tropics and sub -tropics

even with warming of a few degrees

2050s

2080s

Extreme weather events and crop yields

� Ecological systems have many interacting non-linear processes and are thus subject to abrupt changes an d threshold effects arising from relatively small cha nges in driving variables, such as climate.

For example: For example:

Temperature increase beyond a threshold, which vari es by crop and variety, can affect key development stages of s ome crops

and result in severe losses in crop yields.

Climate Change effects

Climate Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudesDecreases likely in most subtropical land regions


Climate change impacts on agriculture Climate change impacts on agriculture

Impact on Global Welfare and Production, 2080(% change)

Source: Zhai & Zhuang (2009)

Climate-change impacts on aggregate crop production in developing and developed regions for projections of IPCC

scenario A2, without economic adjustment.

Source: Zhai & Zhuang (2009)Note: H3 = HadCM3; CS = CSIRO; C2 = CGCM2; NC = NCAR-PCM .

Impacts on Agricultural Production and Trade in Southeast Countries, 2080(% change)

Adapted from Zhai & Zhuang (2009)

Changes in rice production potential in Southeast A sia (1990 =1.0)

AIFI (Reference scenario) AIFI (450 ppm scenario)

• Under A1FI reference scenario, rice production po tential in SEA will initially increase and, after reaching a turning po int in 2050, decline due to the changing patterns of temperature and pre cipitation.

•However, under climate stabilizing scenario (450ppm ) the production potential will be maintained.

Source: ADB (2009)

Climate-change induced yield effects by crop and ma nagement system, % change from yield with 2000 climate to yi eld with 2050

climate

Adapted from Nelson,et al. (2009)

Macro-economic Impacts of Climate Change on Southea st Countries, 2080 (% change)

Source: Zhai & Zhuang (2009)

Projected Change in Mean SurfaceAir Temperature for Southeast Asia under A1FI and B 1 (with

respect to baseline period of 1961—1990), ºC

Source: IPCC (2007)

- A1FI is a high emissions scenario , developed in IPCC (2000), by the end of this century temperatures could be more than 4°C above 1980–1999 levels, ranging from 2.5–6°C

- B1 is a storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population, which peaks mid-century and declines thereafter as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid

change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and introduction of clean- and resource-efficient technologies.

Rice Yield Change in Viet Nam(comparison with base year, 1980—1990), %

Source: IPCC (2007)




Maize Yield Change in Viet Nam (comparison with bas e year, 1980—1990), %

Source: IPCC (2007)




Potential Impact of Climate Change on East Asian’s Agriculture

Adapted from Stern (2007)


– Southeast Asia, as a tropical region, has endured climate extremes that include the monsoon, tropical cyclones, El Niño and La Niña events, extreme variability in rainfall, and very high temperatures. Further climate change is predicted to make these conditions more acute and challenging with to the physical impact on people, their livelihoods, and the environment as a whole.

– Climate change is already affecting Southeast Asia and impacting – Climate change is already affecting Southeast Asia and impacting many sectors. It has affected the quantity and quality of water resources. Extreme weather events such as drought, flooding, and tropical cyclones are increasing in frequency and intensity, and have contributed to a decline in the production of grains and industrial crops, fish supply, and forest harvests.


– Southeast Asia, as a tropical region, has endured climate extremes that include the monsoon, tropical cyclones, El Niño and La Niña events, extreme variability in rainfall, and very high temperatures. Further climate change is predicted to make these conditions more acute and challenging with to the physical impact on people, their livelihoods, and the environment as a whole.

– Climate change is already affecting Southeast Asia and impacting – Climate change is already affecting Southeast Asia and impacting many sectors. It has affected the quantity and quality of water resources. Extreme weather events such as drought, flooding, and tropical cyclones are increasing in frequency and intensity, and have contributed to a decline in the production of grains and industrial crops, fish supply, and forest harvests.


– As projected by the IPCC (2007), Southeast Asia is likely to experience increased exposure to extreme events, including fire risk, typhoons and tropical storms, floods, and landslides, as well as water-borne and vector-borne diseases.

– The heat and water stresses brought about by climate change are likely to disrupt the ecology of mountain and highland systems in the region. region.

– Rising sea levels will cause large-scale inundation along the extensive coastlines and will lead to a recession of flat sandy beaches. The ecological stability of mangroves and coral reefs is also under threat.

Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Asia

– Asia-Pacific region will experience the worst effect on rice and wheat yields worldwide, and decreased yields could threaten the food security of 1.6 billion people in South Asia.

– The crop model indicates that in South Asia, average yields in 2050 for crops will decline from 2000 levels by yields in 2050 for crops will decline from 2000 levels by about 50 percent for wheat, 17 percent for rice, and about 6 percent for maize because of climate change.

– In east Asia and the pacific, yields in 2050 for crops will decline from 2000 levels by up to 20 percent for rice, 13 percent for soybean, 16 percent for wheat, and 4 percent for maize because of climate change.


– With climate change, average calorie availability in Asia in 2050 is expected to be about 15 percent lower and cereal consumption is projected to decline by as much as 24 percent compared to a no climate change scenario.

– In a no-climate change scenario, the number of – In a no-climate change scenario, the number of malnourished children in South Asia would fall from 76 to 52 million between 2000 and 2050, and from 24 to 10 million in East Asia and the Pacific. Climate change will erase some of this progress, causing the number of malnourished children in 2050 to rise to 59 million in South Asia and to 14 million in East Asia and the Pacific, increasing the total number of malnourished children in Asia by about 11 million.


– The Asian countries most vulnerable to climate change are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Nepal.

– Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, and Nepal are particularly vulnerable to declining crop yields due to particularly vulnerable to declining crop yields due to glacial melting, floods, droughts, and erratic rainfall, among other factors.

– Asia is the most disaster-afflicted region in the world, accounting for about 89 percent of people affected by disasters worldwide.


– To counteract the effects of climate change on nutrition, South Asia requires additional annual investments of 1.5 billion USD in rural development, and East Asia and the Pacific require almost 1 million USD more. Over half of these investments in both regions must be for of these investments in both regions must be for irrigation expansion.

– More than 60 percent of the economically active population and their dependents—2.2 billion people—rely on agriculture for their livelihoods in developing parts of Asia

Source: International Food Policy Research Institute ( 2009)

Climate impacts on global agriculture

� Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid to high latitudes for local warmings of 1-3o C, then decrease for greater warming

� Crop productivity is projected to decrease for local warmings of 1-2o C at lower latitudes, e.g. tropics, which would increase risk of hunger increase risk of hunger

� Agricultural irrigation demand in sub-tropical semi-arid zones (lower precipitation, higher evaporation) likely to be 10% per degree of warming

� Northward shift of agricultural zones in Asia� Commercial timber productivity is projected to rise modestly� Likely impacts on fisheries but outcomes are uncertain


Impacts on global agriculture

Source: Tubiello & Fischer (2007)

Impacts on global agriculture

Source: Tubiello & Fischer (2007)

Climate related drivers on agriculture

� The main four climate related drivers on agricultur e are:

1. Elevated carbon dioxide 2. Rainfall and associated water resource availabil ity3. Temperature – both direct and indirect through 3. Temperature – both direct and indirect through

evaporation4. Extreme weather events (wind, flood damage)

These drivers are interact and affect agricultural productivity, quality, pests and diseases.

Vulnerability of key sectors to the impacts of climate change by sub-regions in Asia

Source: IPCC 2007

impacts of climate change on food, fiber, forestry and fisheries, by time increment

Source: IPCC 2007

Changes on cereal production under three different GCM scenarios

. The developed countries could convert negative clim ate effect to positive with their adaptation capacity. Developing countries and world total only could be mitigating.

Source: UNEP GRID 2010

Possible climatic change in Peninsular Malaysia by Possible climatic change in Peninsular Malaysia by 20412041--2050:2050:

• Temperature rise 20C• More extreme hydrological

conditions – Higher maximum

rainfall; Lower minimum rainfall.

– Higher high river flow; Source: NAHRIM (2006) – Higher high river flow; Lower low river flow

� Water balance �� Water sufficiency� Crops yields �� Food security� Plantation �� Economic loss� Infrastructure �� Repairs &

reconstruction

Potential implicationsPotential implications

Climate Change Impacts on Malaysia

• Increases in temperature effects:– It affects the moisture availability through effect s on

evaporation; in general evaporation increases by ab out 5% for each 1oC increase in main annual temperature. This would be significant in tropical regions where most crops ar e generally constrained by water availability (NRS, 2001).

• The Agriculture and crop yield effects:– Increased temperature reduces crop yield and areas prone to

drought can become marginal or unsuitable for the c ultivation of some crops such as rubber, oil palm and cocoa. F orests however, are also vulnerable. As a result of sea le vel rise the mangrove forests along coast line could be nullifie d by a loss of between 15% and 20% (NRS, 2001).

• NRS. 2001. “National response strategies to climate change”, Ministry of Science, Technology and the Environment, Malaysia.

Future projection of climate change on Malaysia: selected states

Climate Factor

Projected Change in Maximum Monthly Value

North West Region(West Coast, Perak,

North East Region (North east coast, Terengganu, Kelantan)

Central Region(Klang, Selangor,

Southern Region(Johor, Southern Perak,

Kedah)Selangor, Pahang)

Southern Peninsula)

Rainfall + 6.2 % + 32.8 % + 8.0 % + 2.9 %

Temperature +1.80 0C +1.88 0C +1.38 0C +1.74 0C

Source: NAHRIM, 2006

Future projection of climate change on Malaysia

� Potential yield of Agriculture (rice) in Malaysia:– The average potential yield of rice varies is about 10 tons ha-

1in the tropics and over 13 tons ha-1 in the region (Yoshida, 1981).

– The actual farm yields in Malaysia vary from 3-5 to ns ha-1, (i.e. potential yield in Malaysia per ha-1 is 7.2 tons (S ingh et al 1996)).1996)).

– The development rates of rice crop were accelerated in response to an increase in CO2 concentration from 1 60 ppm (parts per million) to 900 ppm.

� Unexpected temperature effects in Malaysia:– It is evident that the average response to an incre ase of

potential yields of about 10kg/ha/ppm CO2 or about 15kg/ha/ ppm CO2. However the negative effects occur in unex pected high (>35oC) or low temperature (Penning de Vries, 1993).

Future projection of climate change on Malaysia

� Unexpected temperature effects in Malaysia:

– The rice yield is negatively correlated with high ( >35oC) temperature during the reproductive phase (NRS, 200 1).

– The average temperature in rice-growing areas in Ma laysia is about 26oC. An examination of the current climate c hange scenario under different future climate change indi cates that about 26oC. An examination of the current climate c hange scenario under different future climate change indi cates that temperature above 26oC declines grain mass of 4.4 % per 1oC rise (Tashiro and Wardlaw, 1989) and grain yield de clines as much as 9.6 to 10% (Baker and Allen, 1993).

– Singh et al. (1996) found on rice production in Mal aysia that a decline of rice yield between 4.6 to 6.1% per 1oC u nder the present CO2 level.

Vulnerability to climate changeVulnerability to climate change

Who is vulnerable to climate change

� Vulnerability is a function of three key factors:

– Exposure to climate change risks;– Sensitivity to changes in climate conditions; and– Adaptive capacity to cope with potential climate ri sks or actual

hazardshazards

� Vulnerability applies to countries, regions, econom ic sectors, individual etc.

� Vulnerability indicates an exposure to potential ri sks without having adequate capacity to cope with or adapt to c hanges in the environment

Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions of people, due to sea level rise and heavy rainfall events,

especially in Small Island States and low-lying deltaic areas. Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with a sea level rise of one meter - very difficult to adapt due to lack

of adaptive capacity

Vulnerability to climate change impacts

projected

present

Expected impacts on poor regions

People exposed to increased water stress by 2020:

� 120 millions to 1.2 billion in Asia � 75 to 250 millions in Africa� 12 to 81 millions in Latin America

Possible yield reduction in agriculture:

� 50% by 2020 in some African countries� 30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia� 30% by 2080 in Latin America

Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa

Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change

• Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought prone and a large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors

• Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity and access to knowledgeknowledge

• Climate change is likely to impact disproportionate ly upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries , exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources.

• Net market sector effects are expected to be negati ve in most developing countries

Vulnerability of key sectors to the impacts of climate change by sub-regions in Asia

Source: IPCC 2007

Malaysia: Monthly Poverty Line Income (PLI), Malaysia: Monthly Poverty Line Income (PLI), Incidence of Poverty and Hardcore Poverty, 2004Incidence of Poverty and Hardcore Poverty, 2004

Source: Ninth Malaysia Plan, 2006

Most Vulnerable States in Malaysia: Hardcore Most Vulnerable States in Malaysia: Hardcore

Poverty and Climate ChangePoverty and Climate Change

States Household Size

Percentage of HardcorePoverty Incidence

Projected TemperatureChange

Projected RainfallChange

Terengganu 5.0 4.4 +1.88 0C+ 32.8 %

Terengganu 5.0 4.4 +1.88 C

Perlis 4.2 1.7 +1.80 0C+ 6.2 %

Kelantan 5.2 1.3+1.88 0C

+ 32.8 %

Kedah 4.6 1.3+1.80 0C + 6.2 %

Most Vulnerable peoples are the poor and hardcore p oor

Source: NAHRIM, 2006; Ninth Malaysia Plan, 2006

Key vulnerabilities in Asia-Pacific

Agriculture and food supplyDecrease in crop yields up to 30% in Central & South Asia by 2050

Water managementDecrease of freshwater availability affecting more than a billion people by 2050than a billion people by 2050

Human healthEndemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease and exacerbation of abundance / toxicity of cholera in South Asia

Coastal areas and small islandsSea-level rise, coastal erosion and inundation will compromise the socio-economic well-being of islands and heavily-populated megadeltas

Adaptation and mitigationAdaptation and mitigation

Adaptation in the agricultural sector

• What is Adaptation?

– The adaptation involves developing ways to protect people and places by reducing their vulnerability to climate pattern.

– Agricultural adaptation options could be grouped as:

(a) technological developments;(a) technological developments;

(b) government programs;

(c) farm production practice; and

(d) farm financial management.


• (a) Technological developments

– Technological adaptations could be developed through research programme undertaken. These includes:

1. Resource management innovations (e.g. water management innovation, irrigation, farm level resource mgt- to address risk of moisture deficiency)innovation, irrigation, farm level resource mgt- to address risk of moisture deficiency)

2. Crop development( crop varieties tolerant to changing climatic conditions)

3. Weather and climate information systems (e.g. early warning system, daily and seasonal weather forecasts)


• (b) Government programs

– Government programs are institutional responses to the economic risks associated with climate change and have the potential to influence farm-level risk management strategies. These includes:

1.Agricultural subsidy and support programs (modify subsidy and 1.Agricultural subsidy and support programs (modify subsidy and insurance programs wrt to climate related loss of crop yield)

2.Resource management programs( water res use & mgt strategies wrt changing climatic conditions)


• (c) Farm production practice– Farm production practices (i.e. diversify crop types and varieties,

land use pattern, irrigation etc.) involve changes in farm operational practices, which may be stimulated or informed by government programs or industry initiatives. These includes:

1. Farm production (diversify crop type & varieties to suit climatic changes)changes)

2. Land Use (change location of production to address risks wrt climate change)

3. Irrigation (to address moisture deficiency wrt clim ate change)4. Timing of operations (change to address changing

duration/season due to climate change)


• (d) Farm financial management

– Farm financial adaptations involve decisions with respect to crop insurance, crop shares and futures, income stabilization programs, household income( invest in crop shares & futures to reduce risks of climate change income loss)

– Farm financial adaptation options are farm-level responses using – Farm financial adaptation options are farm-level responses using farm income strategies such as both private and government supported to reduce the risk of climate-related income loss which might support and incentive programs greatly influence farm financial management decisions (e.g. participate in income stabilization prog. to reduce risk of income loss due to climatic conditions and variability)

Adaptation and mitigation strategies

• Collection and conservation of germplasm• Breeding and development of climate ready varieties

– Wide adaptation– Multiple resistance to diseases

• Promotion of alternative crops• Promotion of alternative crops• Altering timing of crops• Integrated crop pests management• Integration of indigenous knowledge and modern

science

• Conservation of traditional livestock breeds• Weather index crop insurance schemes

– provide a safety net to mitigate risk for subsistence farmers

– provides compensation to smallholder farmers

Adaptation and mitigation strategies

– provides compensation to smallholder farmers climate extremes

• Availability of reliable climate information • Appropriate policies• Financial resources• Awareness creation and capacity building

Adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector

• Availability of reliable climate information – Integration of agricultural models with seasonal

climate prediction models– Translate seasonal climate forecasts into useful

information• Appropriate policies• Appropriate policies• Financial resources• Awareness creation and capacity building

Mitigation

• What is Mitigation?

– Mitigation involves attempts or mechanisms to slow the process of global climate change by lowering the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and such mechanisms that absorb carbon dioxide from the air and store it in the soil or in their trunks and roots.

– Mitigation, through reducing greenhouse gas emissions, will primarily be addressed through greater resource efficiency primarily be addressed through greater resource efficiency including:

1. Improving energy efficiency performance of new and existing buildings and influencing behavior of occupants

2.Reducing the need to travel and ensuring good accessibility to public and other sustainable modes of transport

3. Promoting land use that acts as carbon sinks

4. Encouraging development and use of renewable energy etc…

Stabilisation levels(ppm CO2-eq)

Range of GDP reduction

(%)

Reduction of average annual GDP

growth rates(percentage pts)

445 - 535 < 3 < 0.12

Costs of mitigation in 2030

Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain to 3% decrease of GDP in 2030

535 - 590 0.2 – 2.5 < 0.1

590 - 710 -0.6 – 1.2 < 0.06

• What did we observe from climate change impacts from Asia and Asia Pacific Region, particularly for Malaysia?

– Temperature rise and its impacts in the nearest future.

– Initial indication and the effects of climate change on agriculture.

– Mitigation and Adaptation options for climate change for agriculture – Mitigation and Adaptation options for climate change for agriculture sector and poverty groups.

– Policy challenges in the agriculture on the way towards adequate and smooth adaptation.

– Need for partnership between govt. & private sector and NGOs for success. It must be clearly understood that government alone cannot carry out the tasks identified in this document. Success will only be achieved through the total involvement of the private and nongovernmental sectors.

Stabilization scenarios

Stabilizationlevel

(ppm CO 2-eq)

Global mean temp.

increase (ºC)

Year CO2 needs to peak

Change in global CO2 emissions in

2050 (% of 2000 emissions)emissions)

445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 – 2015 -85 to -50

490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 – 2020 -60 to -30

535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 – 2030 -30 to +5

590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 – 2060 +10 to +60

� Regulations and standards

� Appropriate energy infrastructure investments

� Research, development and demonstration

Key mitigation instruments, policies & practices

� Regulations and standards

� Taxes and charges

� Carbon pricing

� Health co-benefits from reduced air pollution- Benefits range from 30-50% of estimated mitigation

costs up to a factor of 3 to 4

� More employment- Solar PV and wind-energy generate 5.7 person-years

Main co-benefits of mitigation

- Solar PV and wind-energy generate 5.7 person-years of employment per 1 million US$ investment (over ten years); while coal industry generates only 4

� Increased energy security

Mitigation actions can result in near-term co-benef its that may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs

Conclusion

Some implications for global food security

� Food scarcity and the resulting higher food prices are

� By the end of the century, hundred of millions of people could be forced from their native land by rising sea levels, extreme events, floods and famines

� Food scarcity and the resulting higher food prices are pushing poverty further in poor countries

� Adaptation is necessary to cope with the impacts of already changing climate

� Agricultural adaptation to climate change otherwise productivity is projected to decline pushing more people to food insecurity

Role and limits of adaptation

� Adaptation is necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions

� Climate change requires forward-looking investment � Climate change requires forward-looking investment and planning responses that go beyond short-term responses to current climate variability

But adaptation alone is not expected to cope with a ll the projected effects of climate change

“Delayed emission reductions significantly constrain the opportunities to achieve lower

stabilization levels and increase the risk of more severe climate change impacts”

The need for urgent mitigation

severe climate change impacts”

- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Key climate change events

UNFCCC (1992)

“The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve,

in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a

level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic

development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”

Bali Roadmap (2007)

“Recognizing that deep cuts in global emissions will be required the Convention launched a comprehensive process to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention, now, up to and implementation of the Convention, now, up to and

beyond 2012, by addressing policy approaches and positive incentives […].”

Copenhagen Accord (2009)

� Commitment to keep the rise in average temperature below 2°C

� Call for international measurement, reporting and verification emissions cuts, mitigation actions and financeverification emissions cuts, mitigation actions and finance

� $30bn fund for 2010-2012; $100bn by 2020

But no binding agreement and targets for emission reductions

CoP 16 to UNFCCC in Cancun, Mexico (2010)

� Hope to make legally binding agreement to keep the rise in average temperature below 2°C by all parties to the UNFCCC

� Further binding agreement and targets for emission � Further binding agreement and targets for emission reductions by the developed world under Kyoto protocol for the period of beyond 2012

Key elements for an ambitious binding agreement

� Ensuring global GHG emissions peak by 2015 and concentrations fall to 350 ppm

� Emission-reduction targets of at least 40% below 1990 levels by 2020 for developed countrieslevels by 2020 for developed countries

� New global climate finance mechanism

� Stronger compliance and enforcement mechanisms