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O. Ovalle, P. Laderach, C. BunnIIASA, Laxenburg. December 2011
Pic by Lenareh
Global impact of climate change on Coffee and Cocoa Suitability
Pic by N. Palmer
Outline• Methodology• Results
- Coffee- Cacao
• Next step
Pic by N. Palmer
Methodology
Pic by N. Palmer
Precipitation: 47,554 locations Mean temperature: 24,542 locations Min – Max temp.: 14,835 locations
Data base Worldclim: www.worldclim.org
Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability
Climate base line
19 bioclimatic variables.
Global Climate Models (GCM)
• 21 “global climate models” (GCMs) basing in science atmospheric, chemical, physical, biology
• It runs from past to future.• There are different scenarios of gas emissions.
POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY (EMISSIONS), AND SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY (MODELS)
Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability
Global Climate Models (GCM)Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability
Data Base
• Data base CIAT for 2030 and 2050• For the elaboration of adapting paths
http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/GCMPage/
Process: DatabaseMethodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability
GCM: scenarios
Scenario A2 • Heterogeneous world• Increasing global
population• Economics development
is primarily regionally oriented
• Technological change area more fragmented.
Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability
Summary methodology
Current climate• 19 bioclimatic variables (worldclim)
Climate change• Downscaling • Generation of 19 bioclimatic variables
Future climate • Current climate + change = Future climate
Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability
MaxEnt
Geo-referencing coffee and cocoa farms.
Training of technical assistants.
Modelling coffee and cocoa
Climate data
Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability
Results
Pic by N. Palmer
CoffeePic by N. Palmer
Global coffee distribution Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability
Future climate in coffee – growing Areas
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
012345678910111213141516171819202122232425
(mm) Precipitation Temperature (ºC)
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2050 2030
current
+ + +
-- -
++
-+
++
Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability
Global coffee suitability map Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability
Global coffee suitability map Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability
Suitability vs altitude Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability
Coefficient of Variation (CV) Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability
Measure agreement Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability
COCOA
Pic by Christine4nier
Global cocoa distribution Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability
Future climate in cocoa – growing Areas
0
50
100
150
200
250
10
11
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13
14
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(mm) Precipitation Temperature (ºC)
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2050 2030
current
+ ++
++
+ +++
+ ++
Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability
Global cocoa suitability map Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability
Global cocoa suitability map Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability
Suitability vs altitude Results Global Cocoa suitability map
Coefficient of Variation (CV) Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability
Measure agreement Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability
Next step
Pic by N. Palmer
Relationship Suitability vs production• Objective:
– Improve Impact assessments on perennial crops
• Problem: – Alternative approaches are often unfeasible– The models assume constant economic conditions
• Question:– How can we link Ecological Niche Models with partial
equilibrium models to assess climate change impacts on the coffee industry and similar production systems?
• Hypothesis: – Ecological Niche Models assign a „suitability“ score. From
this score we can infer economic proxies to model future price conditions.
Next step. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability
Thank you!!!