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This presentation has been made by Michel Morvan (Chairman of The CoSMo Company) for a workshop in Detroit on the following subject : "Visualizing the Future of Detroit: Creating Actionable Insights for Urban Infrastructure Design and Operation" About The CoSMo Company The CoSMo Company is a global pioneer in complex systems modeling and simulation to create actionable insights. CoSMo’s software tools and consulting services enable clients to understand how target systems affect other relevant systems, to create design and operational insights, and to anticipate unintended consequences. We work on transport, energy, infrastructure and any complex system that need to be managed and optimized.
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The Complexity ExperienceAn introduction to modeling and simulation of complex systems for cities
Michel MORVAN – Chairman, The CoSMo Company
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COMPLEX SYSTEMS
HIERARCHICAL
DYNAMICALLY COUPLED
HETEROGENEOUSMULTI-SCALE
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WHAT IS TRUE IN BIOLOGY IS ALSO TRUE FOR OTHER DOMAINS
HIERARCHICAL
DYNAMICALLY COUPLED
HETEROGENEOUSMULTI-SCALE
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TWO CRITICAL POINTS
Complex systems modeling
Complex systems simulation
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TWO CRITICAL POINTS
Complex systems modeling
How to run simulations on complex systems ?
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Real Estate
Water Supply System
PopulationWaste Water
Treatment
Transport System
Smart Grid
Biofuel Production
Energy System
Waste Treatments
Food & Goods
Renewable Energies
Logistics
Quality of life
THE EXAMPLE OF SYSTEMS IN A CITY
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HOW WE TEND TO SEE IT
Real Estate
Water Supply System
Population
Transport System
Smart Grid
Biofuel Production
Energy SystemWaste
TreatmentsFood & Goods
Renewable Energies
Logistics
Quality of life
1 32
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SIMPLIFICATION
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IF YOU DON’T GO THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS…
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… YOU WON’T DISCOVER THE WONDERFULL OPPORTUNITIES OFFERED BY COMPLEX SYSTEMS MODELING!
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THE SANTA FE INSTITUTE MOTTO
FROM SIMPLICITY TO COMPLEXITY!
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TWO CRITICAL POINTS
How to model complex systems ?
Complex systems simulations
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CHAOTIC BEHAVIOUR
STRUCTURAL UNPREDICTIBILITY
STUDY THEM VIA SIMULATION
WHY DO WE NEED SIMULATION ?
COMPLEX SYSTEM ARE ALMOST UNPREDICTABLE
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EMERGENT PHENOMENA
SYSTEM RESILIENCY / ADAPTABILITY
ROBUSTNESS / VULNERABILITY
MANAGE AND UNDERSTAND CASCADING EFFECTS
WHY CAN WE DO WITH SIMULATION ?
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THE NEED OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS SIMULATION
Resilience tests
Optimization
Sensitivity analysis
EX : Test and improve emergency plans, optimize crisis management CAPEX and OPEX
EX : Optimize the maintenance of a big energy network, evaluate and reduce the environmental impact of a new infrastructure, define the optimal configuration of a complex multi-modal transport network or supply chain.
EX : Test and improve the robustness of a supply chain (ensure continuity of service) , improve the robustness of critical systems (water networks in refinery plants)
Testing ScenariosEX : Measuring the impact of urban master plans on a set of different KPIs such as GHG emissions, congestion, …
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WHAT WILL BE THE IMPACT OF NEW INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS ON THE CITY OF
VERSAILLES ?
TESTING SCENARIOS – COSMO + ESRI
Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distributeLAND USE MODEL
DISCTRICTS, AREAS, BUILDINGS
NEW BUILDINGS & INFRASTRUCTURE
OCCUPATION RULES
HOW IS THE LAND USED AND WHAT RULES DEFINE IT ?
Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distributeTRANSPORT NETWORK MODEL
ROADS
PUBLIC TRANSPORTSGHG DIFFUSION RULES
NOISE
HOW DOES THE TRANSPORTATION NETWORK IS ORGANIZED AND HOW DOES IT WORK ?
Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distributeINVESTMENT MODEL
INVESTMENT RULES
OFFER & DEMAND
DIFFERENT SOCIO-ECONOMICS NEEDS
HOW DOES INVESTMENT FIRMS BEHAVE ?
Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distributeCOUPLING THE 3 MODELS
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HOW DOES THOSE THREE MODELS INTERACT ?
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STEP 1: BUILD CONCEPTUAL MODELS
Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distributeLOAD DATA (MAINLY FROM GIS)
STEP 2: INSTANTIATE MODELS ON THE SPECIFIC CITY
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REAL ESTATE PRICES
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POPULATION DENSITY
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EXISTING AND PLANNED INFRASTRUCTURE
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STEP THREE : RUN YOUR SIMULATION
Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distributeDENSITY EVOLUTION (2010-2030)
STEP FOUR : VISUALIZE AND ANALYZE THE RESULTS
Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distributeROAD CONGESTION EVOLUTION (2010-2030)
Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distributeGHG EMISSION EVOLUTION (2010-2030)
Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distributeEVIDENCE BASED DECISION
GHG evolution with public transport incentivisation
GHG evolution without public transport incentivisation
SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2
RUN DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND CHOOSE THE MOST EFFECTIVE ONE
