Road to Cancun

www.isciences.com November 19, 2010November 19, 2010

Kyoto and Beyond

The 3rd installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements related to climate change

Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving international climate treaty process that began with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Road to Cancun is a summary of the process of negotiations that has transpired since COP15 (Dec. 7-18, 2009) and preparatory to COP16 (Nov. 29-Dec. 10, 2010). This includes significant events and progress on commitments made by individual countries.

http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html

Introduction

1

2

3

4

5

A Brief Review of COP15A Brief Review of COP15

Significant Events between COP15 and COP16Significant Events between COP15 and COP16

Current Greenhouse Gas Emissions StatusCurrent Greenhouse Gas Emissions Status

Contents

Anticipation of COP16: Ideas and OpinionsAnticipation of COP16: Ideas and Opinions

Addressing the 2˚ Temperature Growth CapAddressing the 2˚ Temperature Growth Cap

A Brief Review of COP15COP15 (Conference of the Parties) was held Dec. 7-18, 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

COP15 was unable to accomplish the objective of establishing a new agreement that would follow the Kyoto Protocol. The Protocol, a commitment to reduce GHG emissions, expires Dec. 31, 2012.

Though discussions occurred on the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and on adaptation, general consensus was that COP15 was unsuccessful.

Independent of the official process, The Copenhagen Accord, a non-binding voluntary agreement on GHG emissions reductions was drafted on the last day by the U.S. and Brazil, South Africa, India, and China. (BASIC countries)

Image Credit: http: mattkava.com

“Mr. President, this is the worst meeting I’ve been to since the eighth- grade student council.” US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton to President Obama at COP15*

* New York Times, Mar. 18, 2010, After a Bitter Campaign, Forging an Alliance.

July 7Investigations validate CRU

scientists’ conduct

Dec 7–18, 2009 COP15, Copenhagen, Denmark

Nov 2US Congressional

elections

Oct 4–9 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Tianjin, China

Feb 9 Todd Stern speaks

at Center for American Progress

May 31 – June 11 Bonn ClimateChange Talks

Sept 24 Troika Meeting of Host Countries of

COP15, COP16, and COP17

Sept 25 Ministerial

Consultation on Climate Change and the Cancun

Conference

Oct 14 3036th

ENVIRONMENT Council Meeting

Key

Part of the official UNFCCCnegotiations process.

Not part of the official UNFCCC negotiations process.

January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December

Aug 2–6 Bonn Climate Change Talks

Significant Events Between COP15 and COP16

Sept 21 Christiana Figueres

speaks atThe Clinton

Initiative

For details and supporting documents click on an event.

May 17Christiana Figueres becomes UNFCCC

Executive Secretary

Nov 29–Dec 10 COP16, Cancun,

Mexico

Timeline 2010

Aug 30IAC issues review of IPCC processes and procedures

Current Greenhouse Gas Emissions Status

Image Credit: UNFCCC, http://maps.unfccc.int/di/map/

This map from the UNFCCC shows aggregate greenhouse gas emissions level changes for Annex I (industrialized) countries from 1990-2008 under the Kyoto Protocol. A numerical table of these results follows.

NOTE: Non-Annex (developing) countries are not restricted by The Protocol and are not included in the table. These “developing” countries, including China and India, currently account for 52% of global emissions.*

LULUCF=Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry

* Todd Stern, U.S. Special Envoy for Climate Change

Image Credit: UNFCCC, http://maps.unfccc.int/di/map/

This table shows a near-even split between Annex I (industrialized) countries that have lowered emissions since 1990 and Annex I countries that have increased emissions.

Annex I GHG Emissions Changes – Annex I Countries

Both COP15 and the Copenhagen Accord stress the need to prevent a global temperature increase of more than 2 Celsius in order to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

The most often stated objective is to keep GHG emissions under 450 ppm which most believe will constrain the growth in temperature to 2 °C. Current emissions are at 390 ppm, the highest level in at least 800,000 years.

The global surface temperature is rising. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) estimates an increase of 0.74 ± 0.18 °C since 1750.

For example, the IPCC found that a global rise of 2C would cause small island states to be submerged by rising sea levels.

©2010 National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, Climate Stabilization Targets, Table 1. Relationship of Atmospheric Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide to Temperature. Permission is granted for this material to be shared for noncommercial, educational purposes, provided that this notice appears on the reproduced materials, the Web address of the online, full authoritative version is retained, and copies are not altered. To disseminate otherwise or to republish requires written permission from the National Academies Press.http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12877

The 2˚ Temperature Growth Cap

IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007)

Consequences of global temperature growth beyond 2 C include:

Image credit: 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report

as much as 30% of species would be at a higher risk of extinction;

an increase in global flooding, decrease in food production, and a shifting of ecosystems;

impoverished countries would experience the most negative impacts including higher rates of malnutrition and fatal diseases.

The 2˚ Temperature Growth Cap

Reducing the annual global emissions budget to 44 Gigatonnes (Gt) by 2020 would limit warming to +2C. The current track projects 47.9 to 53.6 Gigatonnes, even if major emitters reach promised reductions. *

Some advise setting a 40 Gt budget for 2020 to reach the more ambitious threshold of +1.5 C.*

Even if CO2 levels in the atmosphere are stabilized, world temperature will continue to increase for decades.**

Near term emissions choices could lock in climate changes for centuries. CO2 induced warming will be nearly irreversible for at least 1,000 years.**

By 2020, with current policies in place, global GHG emissions could increase 30% beyond a budget that would avoid dangerous effects of climate change.*

Houghton, Jenkins, Ephraums, 1990 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. * ©2010 WWF (panda.org), Plugging the Gigatonne Gap. Some rights reserved.** ©2010 National Academy off Sciences, National Research Council, Climate Stabilization Targets

The 2˚ Temperature Growth Cap

The official Provisional Agenda (Advance Version) was released Sept. 9, 2010 by the UNFCCC. Click here to view entire agenda

Nov. 29 – Dec. 10, 2010 in Cancun, Mexico

Work towards finding an international agreement that can follow the Kyoto Protocol.

Increase the confidence of small island states and African countries with regard to adequate funding and aid from developed countries for implementing green technology.

Discuss the Clean Development Mechanism, Joint Implementation, and adaptation funding.

Some, including the Council of the EU Environment Ministers, believe that the ideas suggested in the Copenhagen Accord should be integrated into the new framework that is to be created in Cancun.

Official Agenda for COP16 – Key Concepts

Cop16 will be about building an agreement, putting the bones of the agreement together so people can see what the agreement looks like, what it means, before signing in 2011, two years after the COP15.

Yvo DeBoer, former Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC.

COP16? Forget it.… It's important that you have a pragmatic approach, and that you can show the global society that we are doing something.

Izabella Teixeira, Brazil’s Minister of EnvironmentImages credit: Wikicommons; UNFCCC

Mexico has intensified its efforts to encourage the global cooperation of both the industrialized and developing countries to present a common front in the fight against climate change… As the host of COP16, Mexico will seek to achieve agreements on how to finance the mitigation of climate change and the adoption of new technologies, as well as North-South cooperation, the increased participation of emerging economies and building a low-carbon economy.

Felipe Calderon, President of Mexico

We believe a significant outcome in Cancun should focus on providing the means for immediate global action… I think the minimum we want from Cancun is the package of decisions. If we are not able to put in place the package -- the complete package -- then we will be facing again a very critical situation.

Patricia Espinosa, Chair of COP16

Cancun is an important step on the road and it must be treated as such. A unique momentum was created in Copenhagen last year and it's important that we maintain it by proving that Cancun can deliver on practical decisions. Connie Hedegaard, Danish Climate and Energy Minister

Governments need to agree on what is doable in Cancun and how it will be achievable in a politically balanced manner. It is in everyone's ultimate interest to accelerate action in order to minimize negative impacts on all. Christiana Figueres,

Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC

Thoughts and Opinions of COP16

Brazil’s Ambassador for Climate Change has expressed a view shared by others: that Cancun will be one step towards the final outcome, but that the more significant results will occur at COP17 in South Africa.

Felipe Calderon, Mexico’s president, will strive for cooperation between wealthy and impoverished countries. The economic gap makes it increasingly difficult to reach a consensus.

Calderon has ranked the issue of climate change a top priority. A successful result at COP16 would help improve his nation’s global image and spread knowledge of climate change throughout Mexico.

Based on failures at COP15 few are optimistic about COP16, and the tone of the upcoming meeting in Cancun is anticipated to be more subdued than that of Copenhagen.

Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons

All Eyes on Mexico, COP16’s Host

1. To focus on the building of relationships between Annex I and Non-Annex I countries.

2. To address any concerns from developing countries and countries deemed most vulnerable to climate change in order to facilitate a discussion with fewer problems.

3. To reach out and address concerns from countries such as Venezuela, Ecuador, and Saudi Arabia that currently feel climate change agreements are more beneficial to developed countries.

Three major tasks on the table for Mexico’s President Felipe Calderon:

Image credit: Wikimedia Commons

All Eyes on Mexico, COP16’s Host

The feasibility of a “mega-treaty” dissolves in disagreement and COP16 fails to produce a binding post-Kyoto commitment document. This possibility has been referred to as “The Kyoto Gap.”

Image credit: UNFCCC

Big emitters may take action independent of both the UNFCCC process and the Copenhagen Accord process.

The Copenhagen Accord gains traction, but remains voluntary and outside of the UNFCCC process.

Components of The Kyoto Protocol are carved into smaller pieces of action in a stepped or parceled approach that may offer a more palatable, politically viable menu.

Conclusion: Possible Outcomes from COP16

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http://climate-l.org/news/bonn-climate-change-talks-make-limited-progressBristow, Rachael. "Emissions Targets Hang in the Balance." Climate Action. UNEP, 23 July 2010. Web. 31 Oct. 2010.

http://www.climateactionprogramme.org/news/emissions_targets_hang_in_the_balance"China Strikes Conciliatory Tone Ahead of Tianjin Climate Talks." BusinessGreen.com. 29 Sept. 2010. Web. 31 Oct. 2010.

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http://www.reportage-enviro.com/2010/10/climate-change-from-copenhagen-to-mexico/Cowan, Richard. "Republican Election Impact on Climate Change." Reuters AlertNet. 1 Nov. 2010. Web. 14 Nov. 2010. http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N01168241.htm"De Boer Hopeful for Climate Deal in 2011." Clean Skies. 26 Mar. 2010. Web. 31 Oct. 2010.

http://www.cleanskies.com/articles/deboer-hopeful-climate-deal-2011"Experts on the Chances of a Global Climate Deal Working in Mexico in 2010." The Guardian. 1 Feb. 2010. Web. 31 Oct. 2010.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/01/experts-chances-global-climate-deal"Fidel Castro Blasts G20 Summit, Other Nations Left out in the Cold." Brisbane Times. 14 Nov. 2010. Web. 14 Nov. 2010.

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/g20-summit-leaves-rest-of-us-out-in-the-cold-says-castro-20101114-17sro.html"Final ‘forensic’ UK Report on Emails Vindicates Climate Science and Research Underlying the Hockey Stick." Climate Progress. 7 July 2010. Web. 14 Nov. 2010.

http://climateprogress.org/2010/07/07/muir-russell-emails-climategate-vindicates-climate-science-cru/Friedman, Lisa. "Brazil Plans a Price on Oil to Accelerate Climate Efforts." The New York Times. 25 Oct. 2010. Web. 31 Oct. 2010.

http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2010/10/25/25climatewire-brazil-plans-a-price-on-oil-to-accelerate-cl-91681.html"G-20 Summit Concludes, Yields Few Economic Answers." Before It's News. 14 Nov. 2010. Web. 14 Nov. 2010.

http://beforeitsnews.com/story/264/061/G-20_Summit_Concludes,_Yields_Few_Economic_Answers.htmlHoag, Hannah. "Report Maps Perils of Warming." Nature News. Nature Publishing Group, 19 July 2010. Web. 14 Nov. 2010. http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100719/full/466425a.html"How a 2-degree Climate Change Would Hit Canada." CBC News. 5 Oct. 2010. Web. 31 Oct. 2010.

http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2010/10/05/science-round-table-canadian-geographic-climate-change.html IISD Reporting Services. Web. 31 Oct. 2010. http://www.iisd.ca/recent/recentmeetings.aspx?id=5&year=2010#mtg45810Kim, Chang-Ran. "Climate Talks Must Focus on Immediate Action: Mexico." Reuters AlertNet. 10 Nov. 2010. Web. 14 Nov. 2010. http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/TOE6A905H.htmKoomey, Jonathan G. "Why Two Degrees Really Matters." Center for American Progress, 6 Dec. 2009. Web. 31 Oct. 2010.

http://climateprogress.org/2009/12/06/copenhagen-two-degrees-warming-target/Landler, Mark, and Helene Cooper. "After a Bitter Campaign, Forging an Alliance." The New York Times. 18 Mar. 2010. Web. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/19/us/politics/19policy.htmlLight, Andrew, and Sean Pool. "Interactive Map: The Copenhagen Accord at Three Months." Center for American Progress. 29 Mar. 2010. Web. 31 Oct. 2010. http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/03/emissions_pledge.html"Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 Degrees Celsius." EUROPA. 10 Jan. 2007. Web. 31 Oct. 2010. http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/07/16"Mexican President Reiterates Commitment towards COP16." Green Momentum. 6 Sept. 2010. Web. 14 Nov. 2010. http://greenmomentum.com/wb3/wb/gm/gm_content?id_content=6490Murray, James. "Bonn Talks End amid Growing Pessimism - 06 Aug 2010 - BusinessGreen.com." BusinessGreen.com News, Comment and Analysis for the Low Carbon Economy. 6 Aug. 2010. Web. 31

Oct. 2010. http://www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2267781/bonn-talks-amidst-growing"Plugging the Gap." WWF International (2010). http://www.gwec.net/uploads/media/RESGWEC-_Plugging_the_Gap_report_01.09.06.pdfPrabha, Ashwini E. "2020 Emissions Set to Exceed Dangerous Levels by One Third." WWF. 6 Oct. 2010. Web. 31 Oct. 2010.

http://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/?195454/2020-emissions-set-to-exceed--dangerous-levels-by-one-third"Tianjin Climate Meeting Delivers Little, Overshadowed by US-China Spat." International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development. 13 Oct. 2010. Web. http://ictsd.org/i/news/bridgesweekly/86988/Tregaskis, Shiona. "Q&A: Cancun COP16 Climate Talks." The Guardian. 8 Oct. 2010. Web. 31 Oct. 2010.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/oct/08/cancun-cop16-climate-talks"The UNFCCC Negotiations: The Road to COP 16." International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). 30 Mar. 2010. Web. 31 Oct. 2010. http://www.iisd.org/climate/north_american/unfccc_negotiations/road_cop16.asp"UNFCCC Publishes COP 16 and COP/MOP 6 Agendas." Climate-L.org. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 9 Sept. 2010. Web.

http://climate-l.org/news/unfccc-publishes-cop-16-and-copmop-6-agendas/United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Web. 31 Oct. 2010. http://unfccc.int/2860.php

Sources

When referencing this slideshow please use the following citation:

ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The Road to Cancun. A slideshow; 3rd installment in the series: Beyond Copenhagen. November 19, 2010. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www.isciences.com.

www.isciences.com November 19, 2010November 19, 2010

Citation

Appendix

The following slides support the timeline on slide 5.

The Protocol is a multilateral agreement aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Developed countries were assigned limits on emissions relative to 1990, and targets vary by nation.

The Protocol was signed by 84 countries and ratified by nearly all who signed. The US did not ratify. Countries who ratified are now bound by Protocol requirements.

The Protocol, part of the UNFCCC, has been in force since 2005. The first commitment period ends 2012 and no binding framework has been established post-2012.

Four Conference of the Parties have taken place since the Protocol entered into force. Each COP has been accompanied by a CMP, a meeting specific to the Protocol.

RETURN

The Kyoto Protocol

The Copenhagen Accord is a non-legally binding document that allows nations to submit voluntary commitments of emissions reductions.

Controversial at the time of creation during COP15, it has met increasing international approval.

RETURN

Date: Dec. 18, 2009Location: Washington, D.C.

Three months after the introductionof the Accord around 110 countries, representing 80% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, were in support of the Accord’s efforts.

Currently (Nov. 19, 2010) the total number of Parties that have expressed their intention to be listed as agreeing to the Accord is 140.

View Accord status.

The Accord at Three Monthshttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/03/emissions_pledge.html

The Copenhagen Accord

Date: Feb. 9, 2010Location: Washington, D.C.

Todd Stern, U.S. Special Envoy for Climate Change, speaks at the Center for American Progress, addressing COP15, the Copenhagen Accord, and challenges in the year ahead.

Stern identifies a core problem in moving forward: the split between those who believe only developed countries should commit to emissions reductions and transparency, and those who believe all major economies, developed and developing, must commit. He supports the latter, stating that developing countries are projected to account for 66% of emissions by 2030.

Stern stresses the need for the U.S. Congress to pass strong energy and climate legislation in the coming year.

Photo Credit: Wikicommons

Click here to view entire speechReturn to Timeline

Todd Stern Speaks at CAP

Return to Timeline

Date: May 17, 2010Location: UNFCCC

Christiana Figueres of Costa Rica is appointed UNFCCC Executive Secretary, replacing Yvo De Boer from the Netherlands who retires after serving four years in the position.

Figueres, appointed by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, is the daughter and sister of two Costa Rican presidents. A member of the Costa Rican negotiating team since 1995, she has been involved in both UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol negotiations.

Image Credit: UNFCCC

Figueres’ first duty will be to lead talks in COP16. Figueres believes that the level of climate mitigation pledges currently being suggested are not enough, and that COP16 must be different from COP15 in order to order to achieve results. She is looking for innovative creativity at COP16 and is hoping to rebuild trust and cooperation between nations.

Figueres becomes UNFCCC Executive Secretary

Date: May 31 – June 11, 2010Location: Bonn, Germany

Return to Timeline

Around 2,900 participants attend, representing governments, intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations, academia, and the media.

A key topic is the 2°C temperature rise cap. The Alliance of Small Island States requests a technical paper from the Secretariat on possible options for limiting global average temperature rise to 1.5°C and 2°C. This is opposed by Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar and no agreement is reached.

Participants also emphasize the need to ensure there will be no gap between the Kyoto Protocol’s first commitment period (2008-2012), and the following potential commitment periods.

Yvo de Boer, retiring UNFCCC Executive Secretary, says farewell and new Executive Secretary, Christiana Figueres, is welcomed.

Bonn Climate Change Talks

Date: July 7, 2010Location: UK

In November 2009 a server at the University of East Anglia, UK is hacked and a large number of documents from UEA’s Climatic Research Unit (CRU) are illegally accessed and publically posted. The hacker selectively posts numerous private emails from CRU scientists whose research has been used in IPCC reports and COP meetings.

Global warming skeptics allege that the stolen emails reveal misconduct in the scientific community and proof of a conspiracy, believing scientists have forged figures and statistics.

Though several separate investigations (March, July, 2010*) into these allegations conclude that CRU scientists did not withhold scientific information or interfere with the peer-review process, the media attention effectively muddies the already contentious issue of global warming.

Return to Timeline*Click here to view reports: House of Commons; IOP; UEA SAP; Penn State.

CRU Email Investigations

Date: Sept. 21, 2010Location: New York, United States

Return to Timeline

During her speech at the Clinton Global Initiative in New York City, UNFCCC’s Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres states that she does not believe it will possible to address climate change with a “big bang” global climate treaty.

Figueres stresses that it is important to move forward in more incremental steps, achieving smaller goals at a time.

Christiana Figueres Speaks at The Clinton Initiative

Date: Aug. 2–6, 2010Location: Bonn, Germany

Return to Timeline

Around 4,500 participants from 190 countries are in attendance.

Countries are unable to agree on the current version of the negotiating text, and many continue to add amendments which ultimately double the length of the text. The purpose of the text is to provide a potential framework that negotiators at COP16 can finalize. However, many feel that the added content makes the text too large for reaching an agreement in Cancun.

The talks also highlight the need for developed and developing nations to work together, as many developing nations feel there is insufficient funding for helping them cope with the effects of climate change.

Some feel this round of talks has further hindered the possibility of international agreement on Cancun.

Bonn Climate Change Talks

Date: Sept. 24, 2010Location: New York, United States

Click here to view entire declarationReturn to Timeline

Denmark, Mexico and South Africa – host countries of COP15, COP16, and COP17 – establish a Troika to call for close cooperation by the three nations during any future UNFCCC climate change negotiations.

The host countries create the Troika in hopes that a joint effort and collaboration will allow for greater certainty that decisions will be made during COP16. The Troika’s declaration stresses commitment to finding an agreement on climate change.

The declaration also calls for developed countries to deliver on pledges made during COP15 and to begin taking further actions towards climate legislation.

Troika Meeting, COP Host Countries

Date: Sept. 25, 2010Location: New York, U.S.A

Click here to view entire addressReturn to Timeline

Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, addresses the Ministerial Consultation. She emphasizes the significance of the forthcoming Tianjin Climate Change talks (Oct. 4-9, 2010), stating that much work needs to be done at Tianjin to establish the future of the Kyoto Protocol.

Figueres also hints at the disagreement between nations over the current negotiations and stresses that there needs to be more international cooperation if an agreement is to be made in Cancun. Areas that need more cohesiveness: continuation of the Protocol, mobilization of long-term financing, formalization of mitigation pledges, and response measures.

Figueres ends the speech by making the point that Cancun needs to be successful in showing the world that there is a climate change negotiation process that can work.

Ministerial Consultation on Climate Change and the Cancun Conference

Date: Oct. 4–9, 2010Location: Tianjin, China

Return to Timeline

Tianjin, the last formal session of UN climate talks before Cancun, is expected to be a catalyst for concrete outcomes at COP16. Roughly 3,100 delegates attend.

Two main tasks have been targeted for completion in Tianjin:1. Narrowing of differences in order to slim down the 70 page negotiating

text; 2. Focusing on a draft proposal to prepare a document for the Cancun

meeting to help lead to an agreement on points made under the Kyoto Protocol.

Tianjin, continue to next slide >>

Tianjin Climate Change Talks

Issues related to the Copenhagen Accord are discussed: funding for climate-related policy changes; procedures for insuring that committing countries fulfill their GHG emissions reductions.

Other key topics are funding from developed countries to developing countries, and the accountability of developing countries to reduce emissions. Developing countries express concern that climate financing will not be in addition to development aid they are already receiving for non-climate related policies.

Disagreements arise between China and the U.S., most notably, whether developed countries should have legally binding commitments. The U.S. believes China is ignoring the Accord while China believes the U.S. is not taking enough responsibility. These disagreements slow the negotiation process, and little is accomplished.

On the final day of the talks Christiana Figueres and Mexican Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa address the media, asserting that progress has been made. This sentiment, however, is not generally embraced.

Tianjin, back to previous slide << Return to Timeline

Tianjin Climate Change Talks

As the world looks to the US (a major GHG emitter) for climate policy leadership, President Obama and the Democrat-led US Congress fail to pass strong clean energy and climate legislation prior to US Congressional elections Nov. 2, 2010.

Mid-term elections result in a significant shift of Congressional control to the Republican Party. Reflecting the impact of that shift on the future of a cap-and-trade bill designed to reduce GHG emissions, President Obama comments: "It's doubtful that you could get the votes to pass that through the House this year or next year or the year after.”*

While a Presidential veto could block expected attempts to undermine clean energy initiatives, it will be difficult to gain supportfor effective climate change legislation.

Date: Nov. 2, 2010Location: United States

Return to Timeline* http://yhoo.it/boEqnT

US Congressional Elections

Return to Timeline

Date: Oct. 14, 2010Location: Luxembourg

European Environment Ministers follow up on environmental issues in the EU. It is the Ministers’ goal to attempt to adopt a common position on climate change in order to have a united voice at any future international negotiations.

The Council collectively decides to support a single legally binding piece of legislation to protect the climate after 2012.

It also expresses support to consider a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.

Click here to view the meeting’s press release

3036th Environment Council Meeting

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM): A mechanism implemented by the Kyoto Protocol. It allows an Annex B country with an emission reduction commitment to conduct an emission-reduction project in a developing country. The Annex B country may then earn certified emissions reduction credits that can be counted towards meeting its reduction target.

Joint Implementation (JI): A mechanism implemented by the Kyoto Protocol. It allows an Annex B country with an emission reduction commitment to earn emission reduction units (ERU) from an emission reduction/removal project in another Annex B country. The country can count the ERU towards meeting the reduction target.

Adaptation Funding: Funding for adaptation projects in developing countries that are the most vulnerable to adverse effects of climate change. The fund is financed partly by proceeds from the CDM and is managed by the Adaptation Fund Board.

Definitions provided by the UNFCCC website: http://unfccc.int/2860.php

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Terms Defined

Return to Timeline

Date: Dec. 7-18, 2009Location: Copenhagen, Denmark

COP15 was the 15th session of the Conference of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. It was anticipated as a significant step in the increasing international push for new binding climate change legislation.

Focus was on attempting to draft new legislation and deciding if goals set by the Kyoto Protocol should continue post-2012. COP15 failed to produce a new agreement that would follow the Protocol.

Independent of the official process, The Copenhagen Accord, a non-binding voluntary agreement on GHG emissions reductions was drafted on the last day by the U.S., China, Brazil, India, and South Africa.

COP15

Return to Timeline

Date: Nov. 29-Dec. 10, 2010Location: Cancun, Mexico

COP16 is the next Conference of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. The primary objective is to work towards finding an international agreement that can follow the Kyoto Protocol.

It will also be necessary to increase the confidence of small island states and African countries with regard to adequate funding and aid from developed countries for implementing green technology.

Parties are expected to discuss the Clean Development Mechanism, Joint Implementation, and adaptation funding.

Some, including the Council of the EU Environment Ministers, believe that the ideas suggested in the Copenhagen Accord should be integrated into the new framework that is to be created in Cancun.

COP16

The BASIC countries (or G4) are a bloc of four large developing countries – Brazil, South Africa, India and China – formed by an agreement on Nov. 28, 2009 at COP15. The four, initiated and led by China, committed to act jointly at the Copenhagen climate summit, including a possible united walk-out if their common minimum position was not met by the developed nations. On the last day of COP15 the US brokered the Copenhagen Accord with BASIC .

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BASIC COUNTRIES

Signatories to the Kyoto Protocol are categorized into three groups based on their responsibilities: – Annex I: Industrialized countries that have agreed to reduce emissions.

– Annex II: Developed countries who have to pay for the costs of the emissions reducing technologies of Developing countries.

– Non-annex: Developing countries who are not restricted by the Protocol.

Although the Protocol is binding, there are no penalties if Annex I countries do not comply.

China and India, non-Annex countries not bound by the Protocol, are some of the world’s top emitters.

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Annex I & Annex II Countries

In January of 2010 the IPCC admits that a claim made in its 2007 report – that Himalayan glaciers could melt away by 2035 – was unfounded, stating (“the clear and well-established standards of evidence, required by the IPCC procedures, were not applied properly.”

On Mar. 10, 2010 UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon requests an independent review of the IPCC processes and procedures by the InterAcademy Council (IAC), a multinational organization of the world’s science academies. The request was reflective of the IPCC’s global role in assessing the latest scientific findings on the complex science of climate change.

The August 2010 IAC review concludes that the process used by the IPCC to produce its assessment reports has been a success overall, but that IPCC needs to reform its management structure, strengthen its procedures, and become more transparent to handle increasingly complex climate assessments and greater public scrutiny.

Date: Aug. 30, 2010Location: Amsterdam, The Netherlands

View the IAC report.

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IAC issues review of IPCC