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1
Demand Reduction in the Forward Capacity Market:
Expectations & Reality
Kathryn Parlin, West Hill Energy & Computing
Jennifer L. Chiodo, Cx Associates
2
Overview
ISO NE FCM Vermont’s Custom Commercial Portfolio
• Sampling• M&V• Findings
Recommendations
3
Demand Markets
What?• ISO capacity procurement includes demand savings
from efficiency programs Where?
• ISO NE Forward Capacity Market (FCM)• PJM Reliability Pricing Model (RPM)
4
Grid Reliability
Generation Extensively Metered Concentrated Real time data Accurate Dispatchable Known operating schedule Operators – few, known and
knowledgeable
Energy Efficiency Not Metered Aggregated
• Widely dispersed• Diverse• Not individually metered• Varying schedule and output
Operators – many, unknown and unaware of project interaction with market
5
Process
ISO M-MVDR VT M&V Plan VT FCM Bid DPS Verification Contract Sampling Project level M&V Analysis and Report Reviews Annual Realization Rates Established
6
VT Portfolio Verification
Demand Savings Calculation Paper verification of kWh IPMVP
methods Baseline changes Round 1: January 2007 – December 2008 Round 2: 2009 Round 1 RR applies to savings from June 2010 Capacity payments began in 2008
7
Round 1 Sampling
Stratification Variables• End use: HVAC, Lighting, Other• Type: Retrofit, MOP/NC• Size: Large, Medium, Small
“Real Time” Measure Sampling• Retrofit projects• No metering planned by program• Evaluation team pre/post metering
8
Real Time Sampling Redux
Dynamic Sample Frame Size threshold established before population
known Project tracking and reporting issues Timing – projects completed prior to sampling Customer issues 7 of 23 sampled projects completed
9
Project Verification
M&V Plans developed for each project All IPMVP Options used
• Option A (Partially measured) typically for lighting • Option B (Metered equipment) HVAC, refrigeration,
compressed air, etc.• Option C (Whole facility) 15 minute interval data,
large kW, consistent measure performance• Option D (Calibrated Modeling) New Construction
Excellent customer participation
10
Project Approach
Scheduling
Sampling group description
Summer CF - Weekdays In Session
ON timeAS METERED
Summer CF - Weekdays Staff Only
ON timeAS METERED
Summer CF - Holidays ON time
AS METERED
ISONE Summer
Peak Weekdays in
Session
ISONE Summer
Peak Weekdays Staff Only
ISONE Summer
Peak Holiday and
ShutdownsBlended
Summer CFCorridor-General 1.000 0.625 0.000 46.75 7 1 0.787Corridor-General 1.000 0.863 0.201 46.75 7 1 0.815Corridor-General 1.000 0.330 0.200 46.75 7 1 0.758Corridor-General 1.000 0.604 0.800 46.75 7 1 0.797School Classroom 0.114 0.036 0.000 26.25 7 1 0.050School Classroom 0.373 0.045 0.000 26.25 7 1 0.155School Classroom 0.146 0.036 0.000 26.25 7 1 0.063School Classroom 0.541 0.000 0.000 26.25 7 1 0.218School Classroom 0.539 0.000 0.000 26.25 7 1 0.218School Library 0.949 0.109 0.147 36.5 7 1 0.547School Library 0.840 0.110 0.147 36.5 7 1 0.486School Gymnasium 1.000 0.415 0.358 26 7 1 0.450School Gymnasium 1.000 1.000 1.000 26 7 1 0.523School Offi ces 0.773 0.000 0.000 57 7 1 0.678School Maintenance Rooms 0.953 0.038 0.000 57 7 1 0.840
• Safety
11
Project M&V
Metering Equipment Seasonality of Weather
• Temperature• Daylight
Regressions/Schedules
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89
Ave
rage
Pow
er (k
W)
Outside Air Temperature (°F)
kW vs Temperature
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
kW
12
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
Realization Rates by Stratification Variable
Winter Summer
TYPE SIZE END USE
13
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20Co
unt o
f Re
aliz
ation
Rat
esWinter Realization Rate Distribution
0
5
10
15
20
25
Coun
t of
Real
izati
on R
ates
Summer Realization Rate Distribution
14
Conclusions
+ 80/10 Confidence/Precision Level of rigor essential for ensuring reliability High degree of planning and flexibility required Real time sampling infeasible Benefits have broad potential
• IRP• T&D Constraints