Desert Locust (harmless)

Desert Locust (dangerous)

Tracking locusts

FAO’s early warning system

Keith Cressman Senior Locust Forecasting Officer Rome

the problem

locusts are usually present somewhere within

16 million km2

Recession - calm period

( 1.6 billion ha )

25 countries

locusts invade up to 20% of Earth’s land mass

32 million km2

Plague

50 countries

Desert Locusts live 3 - 6 months

egg

hopper (bands)

adult (swarms) 1

2

3

10 days

40 days

25 days

plagues evolve �WKH\�GR�QRW�RFFXU�RYHUQLJKW

decline

recession

outbreak

upsurge

plague

good rains

control fails good rains

rains fail good control

control fails good rains

as hoppers increase they change their behaviour

GREGARIZATION

band group individual

as adults increase they change their behaviour

GREGARIZATION

swarm group individual

irregular recessions and plagues (1860 - 2011)

countries

2003 – 2005 the worst situation in 15 years

it took $500 million & Mother Nature to stop this

southern Mauritania invasion (early summer 2004)

northern Senegal invasion (early summer 2004)

Morocco invasion (October 2004)

Cairo invasion (17 November 2004)

the economics

35,000

20

6 a 1 km2 Desert Locust swarm eats the same food in 1 day as ...

1,100 =

New York City

Paris

Sydney

38 million/day FRANCE/2 DAYS

42 million/day USA/1 WEEK

422 million/day AUSTRALIA/1.5 HOURS

Control ops in 23 countries October 2003 - November 2005

ha

13 million hectares

2004 2005

FAO appeal

FAO TCP

US$ million

9

50

7 months

4 months

funds received

$74.8m

Emergency funding delay

13 - 200

320 + 80

100

control / ha

millions spent by affected countries + FAO/donors millions spent on food aid

8.4 million people affected in West Africa

80-100 % cereal loss

85-90 % legume loss

33-85 % pasture loss

Debt household heads became indebted

60 % mauritania

45 % mali

33 % burkina faso

$90 million food aid in West Africa, 2004

90 % burkina faso

75 % mali

65 % mauritania

households receiving aid

$1 million saves $100 million

millions $

$1M after

1 month

$5M after

4 months

$10M after

7 months

$50M after

10 months

$100M after

12 months

2003 2004

the last plague in West Africa

years of preventive control 170

$ 570 MILLION control operations (2003-2005)

$ 3.3 MILLION annual cost preventive control W & NW Africa

the solution

Desert Locust early warning system

National field teams

National Locust Control Centre

FAO Desert Locust Information Service

FAO Locust early warning network

front-line secondary invasion

GPS

Inmarsat

eLocust2

Internet server

RAMSES

satellite transmission

email

lat/long

Field data to National Locust Centre

1

2

3

Internet access to field data in real time

latest position

see work rate

ID gaps

on your PC

24/7

secure

GIS at National Locust Centres

DATA ENTRY

DATA DISPLAY

RAMSES

GIS at FAO DLIS (Rome)

SWARMS

simple access to GIS data via Internet

Locust Mapper

www.fao.org/ag/locusts

calm

caution

threat

danger

www.fao.org/ag/locusts

informing people

advanced warning

warning reliability

outbreaks less than 1 month low-moderate

upsurges up to 3 months low

plagues up to 6 months moderate-high

provided by FAO/DLIS, Rome

Sustaining effective national surveillance ...

motivated individuals (energetic, curious)

well trained teams (survey, data collection)

well equipped teams (GPS, vehicles)

financial support (national budget, incentives)

becomes routine

teams receive feedback

data ownership

a successful early warning system

regular surveillance & accurate GPS field data

rapid data transmission & easy access

complete GIS analysis

simple well-targeted outputs

use social media

www.fao.org/ag/locusts www.facebook.com/faolocust twitter.com/faolocust

Keith Cressman Senior Locust Forecasting Officer, Rome keith.cressman@fao.org