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Presentation to Federal, State and Provincial Congressional Members on the reliability of the grid. Pointing to the importance of transmission.
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The Grid TodayThe Grid Today
The Energy CouncilThe Energy Council’’s 2009 Federal Energy s 2009 Federal Energy and Environmental Matters Conferenceand Environmental Matters Conference
About NERC: MissionAbout NERC: Mission
Develop & enforce reliability standards
Assess current and future reliability
Analyze system events & recommend improved practices
Encourage active participation by all stakeholders
Pursue mandatory standards across North America
To ensure the reliability of the North American bulk power system
Directions to Moving Forward Directions to Moving Forward
Long-Term Reliability
Key Reliability Objectives
Current Climate Initiatives
LongLong--Term ReliabilityTerm Reliability
Adequacy generally improving over past years
Transmission is essential
Integration of new generation sources (renewables, nuclear, next gen coal, PHEV…)
Demand response increasing
Key Objective: Support TransmissionKey Objective: Support Transmission
Climate objectives cannot be fulfilled without focus on transmission
“Clean Energy Superhighway” needed
System planning must take a “continental” view
Source:EPRI & NREL
Wind Availability Compared to Demand Centers
Note:o Blue indicates areas with high wind potential, o Brown indicates large demand centers, and o Green indicates areas with little wind potential and
smaller demand centers
Status of TransmissionStatus of Transmission……
The electric transmission system operates close to the edge of its capacity• Roughly $70 billion of investment in
20,000 miles of extra high-voltage transmission will be needed to preserve the status quo over the next 10 years
Future energy policy objectives such as achieving energy independence or reducing carbon emissions are off the table without significant upgrades to the transmission system• Roughly $100 billion of investment
in 30,000 miles of additional extra high-voltage transmission will be needed to meet energy policy objectives by 2024
NERC Regional Entities NERC Regional Entities
Wind Projected to GrowWind Projected to Grow
145,000 MW of wind to be added in coming 10 years
Recommendations:• Flexibility
• Forecasting
• Transmission
Figure 5: Projected Increase in Existing, Planned & Proposed Summer On-Peak Wind Capacity
11.5%
17.2%
13.4%
19.6%
13.1%
26.4%
19.9%19.9%
8.7% 8.7% 9.1%
15.0%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2008
2017
2008
2017
2008
2017
2008
2017
2008
2017
2008
2017
2008
2017
2008
2017
ERCOT FRCC MRO NPCC RFC SERC SPP WECC
MW
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Existing Planned Proposed % of Expected-Peak Wind Capacity to Nameplate Capacity
2008/09 Winter Wind Generation Grows2008/09 Winter Wind Generation Grows
Projected Winter WindTotal Nameplate Capacity
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
ERCOT FRCC MRO NPCC RFC SERC SPP WECC
MW
Existing Planned Proposed
Projected Winter WindTotal Nameplate Capacity
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
ERCOT FRCC MRO NPCC RFC SERC SPP WECC
MW
Existing Planned Proposed
Capacity available on peak ranges from 8.7% to 26%
C a p a c ity D e m a n d R e s p o n s e (M W ) - 1 0 y e a r P r o je c t io n
0
1 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
3 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
5 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
7 0 0 0
8 0 0 0
2 0 0 8 2 0 1 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 7E R C O T F R C C M R O N P C C R F C S E R C S P P W E C C
MW
T o ta l C a p a c ity D e m a n d R e s p o n s e D ir e c t C o n tr o l L o a d Ma n a g e m e n tC o n tr a c tu a l ly In te r r u p t ib le ( C u r ta i la b l e ) C ri t ic a l P e a k -P r ic in g w ith C o n t ro lL o a d a s a C a p a c ity R e s o u r c e
Key Objective: DemandKey Objective: Demand--Side ResourcesSide ResourcesUS Peak Demand (1994-2017)
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
850,000
900,000
950,000
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Year
Meg
awat
ts
U.S. peak demand projected to grow by 17% by 2018
Modernized Grid Modernized Grid –– Integration KeyIntegration Key
“Smart Grids” can support reliability
Variable Resources
Demand response
Large deployment of sensor & automation technologies
Innovative applications of electricity
Flexibility
Cyber-Security vital
Renewables
Independent
Nuclear
Next gen Coal
Secure
Energy Efficiency
Demand Response
Reliable
SmartSmart GridGrid
Components to the Intelligent Network Components to the Intelligent Network –– Many are focused in vertical silosMany are focused in vertical silos
Circuit Transformers AMI Load Management
Capacitor Bank Monitoring
Predictive Maintenance
Security (Video/Audio)
Load Management
OMS/DMS
Broadband over Power Lines
Advanced SCADA
Mesh networks
Voltage Monitoring
Outage Detection
Theft Detection
Asset Failure Alarms
Smart substation
High Temperature Superconducting (HTS) Cables
Underground Transmission
HTS Transformers
Real-Time Metering
TOU/CPP Pricing
Outage Monitoring
Voltage Monitoring
Smart switch
Smart thermostat
Real-time DLC management and verification
Load profiling
Aggregation of curtailed load
Generation
Wind
Solar
Geothermal
Hydro
Biomass
Biofuels
Carbon capture
Nuclear
Carbon cap and trade
Storage technology
Capacitors
Consumer Portal
Integration of Variable Generation Integration of Variable Generation Task Force (IVGTF) ScopeTask Force (IVGTF) Scope
Task Force will prepare: • Concepts document: philosophical
& technical considerations
• Recommendations: practices, requirements & reliability standards
Document will include:• Planning timeframe issues
• Operational Planning and Real-time Operating timeframe issues
• Review NERC Standards for gaps
• Review of future developments: i.e. storage, EHV
• Conclusions and recommendations
Current Climate InitiativesCurrent Climate Initiatives
40 U.S. States and all Canadian Provinces are involved in some form of climate change initiative.
Key Objective: Decision on U.S. PolicyKey Objective: Decision on U.S. Policy
Regulatory certainty needed to enable resource development
Can result in great improvements• New generation technologies
• Diversified fuel mix
• Strengthened & “smarter” grid
Key Objectives and Emerging IssuesKey Objectives and Emerging Issues
Emerging Issues Risk Evolution:
Consequence
Like
lihoo
d
High
HighLow
Greenhouse Gas
Reductions
Fuel Storage & Transportation
Rising Global Demand for
Energy & Equipment
Increased Demand-Side & Distributed Generation
Resources
Transmission of the 21st
CenturyLimited Water Availability
Mercury Regulation
1-5 Years6-10 Years
Smart, Modern Grids and ReliabilitySmart, Modern Grids and Reliability
Regulators can• Implement formulas for cost allocation/cost recovery• Provide certainty & support transmission infrastructure
siting, planning, construction• Flexible on innovative planning
Policy makers/Educators can• Promote reliability as incorporating all components “FIS”
flexibility- integration- smart• Tell story with all pieces
Planners can• Maintain Future Bulk Power System Reliability• Change how they design grids
Operators can• Expand understanding of new resources• Manage variability/uncertainty• Pre-position systems
Reliability Must HavesReliability Must Haves
Interoperability• Regulatory Certainty
• Smart and Flexible-
solid partnerships
Diverse Fuel Supply
Demand Side Resources
Interconnectivity• Renewables and Transmission
State and regional PARTERNSHIP w/ State and regional
One picture speaks a thousand wordsOne picture speaks a thousand words……..
Growth in Electricity Supply, Demand, and Transmission(1990 -2007)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Transmission Supply Demand
Perc
enta
ge
30% growth 30% growth
10% growth
