Analysis Frameworks for Sustainability:

Linking Energy and the Environment

Rudolf B. HusarDirector, Center for Air Pollution and Trends Analysis (CAPITA) 

Professor, Department of Energy, Environmental & Chemical Engineering  

Friday, November 2, 2007, 11:00am,

Lopata 101, Washington University

Sustainable Development (SD)

A process of reconciling society’s developmental needs with the environmental limits over the long term. But, What should be developed, what should be sustained?

SD as an uncertain and adaptive process, “in which society's discovery of where it wants to go is intertwined with how it might try to get there”.

During the SD ‘journey’ toward sustainability, the pathways have to be ‘navigated’ adaptively

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National Academy, 1999

Life and non-life on Earth form a combined system (Gaia Theory)

Carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, calcium are in constant circulation between the earth’s major environmental compartments

Earth’s compartments remain in balance as long as the rate of flow of matter and energy in and out of the compartments is unchanged.

Changes in the environmental compartments will occur if the circulation (in and out flow) of the substances is perturbed.

Atmospheric CO2 has been increasing because the rate of input is larger than the rate of output from the atmosphere.

Major Biogeochemical Processes Visualized by Aerosols

Dust storms

Volcanoes Anthropogenic pollution

Fires

Analysis Frameworks

Sensory-Motor Feedback Loop (System Science)

Biogeochemical Cycling Loop (Materials Balance)

Causality Loop (Combined Social-Physical)

Analysis Framework I: Sensory-Motor Loop

AssessmentCompare to Goals, Plan Reductions

Track Progress

Controls (Actions)

Monitoring(Sensing)

Set Goals

Assessment turns data into knowledge for decision making & actions through analysis (science & eng.)

Monitoring collects multi-sensory data from surface and satellite platforms and

Human activities exert pressures, e.g burning fossil fuels, that alter the state of environment.

The impaired environmental state, elicits responses, such as regulations in a feedback loop

All living organisms use this type of sensory-motor feedback to maintain their existence.

Monitoring, Assessment, Control are the necessary steps for sustainable development.

Monitoring:New Global Measurements - Satellites

ERBS

Terra

Aqua

Grace

IceSat

QuikScatSage

SeaWinds

TRMM

Toms-EP

UARS Jason

Landsat 7

SORCE

SeaWiFS

ACRIMSAT

TOPEX/Poseidon

EO-1

A-Train Satellite Constellation

Trends of tropospheric NO2

Eskes at al

Source Identification of

NO2

NO2 Weekly Cycle

Setting Goals:

Air Quality Goal:

Attaining Natural Condition by 2064

Controls: Sustainability Transition

Analysis Framework II: Materials & Energy Flow Loop

Biogeochemical Cycles - Carbon

Nitrogen Cycle

Consequences of Ecosystem Changes

How and what to Control?? Analysis Framework III – Causality Loop

Economic Development with Due Care of the Environment

The system approach links human activities and their consequences in closed loop

It is the minimum set of linked components – if any missing, the system is crippled

Each component depends on its causal upstream driver – and external environment

The causal loop can be used as an organizing principle for sustainability analysis

Analysis Framework III – Causality LoopEconomic Development with Due Care of the

Environment

Health-Welfare

Energy-Environment

Socio-Economic

Causality: Linear System Model

Trend of Indicators

SOx = Pop x GDP/P x Btu/GDP x Sox/Btu

1960s

1980s

1990s

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

GDP(Mill$)/PersonEnergy(Bbtu)/GDP(Mill$)SOx/Energy(Bbtu)PopulationSOX Emiss

Population - Energy/Goods Consumption– Materials Flow - Emissions

Ek = cjk EMj = bij cjk GEi = ai bij cjk P

Industr. Energy

Transp. Energy

ResCom.Engy

Coal

Oil

GasElectric Energy

SOx

NOx

HC

PM

Goods &Energy,(GE) i Fuels&Mater.(FM), j Emission (EM), k

Ind. Chemicals

Industr. Goods

Pop., P

Metals

Mercury

ai

Consump./Person

bij

Fuels/Energy

cjk

Emission/Fuel-

j ji i i j

Consumption of Goods and Energy: GE = ai P

Fuels and Materials Flow: FM = ai bij P

Emission of Pollutants: EM = ai bij cjk P

Industrial Prod.

Transportation

ResComercial

EconMeasure(EM)

Coal Production and S Content

Coal Sulfur Flow in 1980 and 1998

• In 1980, a major flow of sulfur in coal originated in Illinois and was transported to Florida

Arrows indicate the flow of coal from the mines to the consumer

• By 1990, the transport of high sulfur coal from the Midwest has bee replaced by low sulfur western coal

Pollutant Transfer by Fuels and Minerals:Spatial Transfer Matrices

Carbon Emission Drivers for TransportationEnv 449 - 2007

Carbon Emission Trends - Passenger Transportation 1960-2003

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Per

cent

Cha

nge

Carbon Emission Drivers for Cars

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Population, 1990 N Car PMT/Person, 1990 NCar VMT/Car PMT, 1990 N Fuel/VMT, 1990NTotal Carbon Emission 1990N

Carbon Emission Drivers for Housing

Close-Loop Frameworks

Three Frameworks:

– Sensory-Motor Feedback Loop (System Science)– Biogeochemical Cycling Loop (Materials Balance)– Causality Loop (Social-Material Science)

Main Challenges:- Balancing Loops

- Network Effects in Causality

- Integrating Socio-economic, Physico-chemical, Health-Welfare